What Do You Do?

It's a question that every Nationals fan has asked themselves. It's a question that Mike Rizzo, Ted Lerner and Mark Lerner have asked themselves. Everybody knew this offseason was coming, but for so many years, it felt like it was so far away. But it's here. Decision day is looming, even if a final decision hasn't yet been made. What do you do?

There is no easy answer. Quite frankly, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. Yes, this is all about Bryce Harper. The tantalizing talent, that despite his struggles in the first half of this season, turned in his first 100+ RBI season, to go along with 34 bombs. The 26 year old superstar that has been on the cover of every Nationals article written since he broke into the Major Leagues in 2012. 

The Nationals will clear nearly $69 million in payroll this offseason. As Chelsea Janes points out, that number will more closely resemble about $30 million or so once you take into consideration the raises players like Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Tanner Roark will get in arbitration this offseason. Here's the thing though - when you look at the Nationals payroll, it's difficult to calculate. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both have sky-high payroll figures for the 2019 season, $37.4 million and $38.333 million, respectively. That's $75.733 million between two starting pitchers. The Nationals will not, however, be paying Scherzer or Strasburg anywhere near those figures. In fact, if you look at Scherzer's contract, you'll see that he's due to make $35 million in base salary per season in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but every penny of that $105 million is deferred money, payable in 7 installments of $15 million each, starting in 2022, when his contract with the Nationals ends. Strasburg's deal is similar. He's due $35 million in base salary in 2019, but $30 million is deferred. Scherzer and Strasburg will each receive part of their signing bonus this year as salary. As it goes with the rest of the Nationals payroll, the actual amount that each of them will receive next year is not exactly clear. But let's say for instance, Scherzer receives $15 million total this year, instead of the listed $37.4, and Strasburg also receives $15 million (I pick those numbers because it seems based on the deferrals and length of deferrals, that is the actual amount that Scherzer and Strasburg receive each season, excluding incentives). If you've got $30 million instead of $75.733 million in real money invested in those two next season, then you really have an extra $45.733 on top of that $30 million that cleared the books from players no longer on the team. That's $75.733 million, even after the arbitration eligible players are paid. 

The thing is - the Nationals still have glaring needs. They need a catcher, they need a second baseman, they need another starting pitcher and shockingly, they need to revamp their bullpen. That $75.733 million doesn't seem like such a large sum anymore, especially if you have hopes of resigning Bryce Harper.

The Nationals don't need Bryce Harper, just like Bryce Harper doesn't necessarily need the Nationals. But unlike their neighbors to the north, who have the money, but still decided to let the face of the franchise go without even so much as making a legitimate offer, the Nationals want to bring Bryce back. From the sounds of it, Bryce wants to come back. Again, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. The Nationals are set to deploy an outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton next season. Not one executive in the Majors would look at that and blame the Nationals if they just bowed out and said they were ready to move on from Bryce. In fact, some would say that's what the Nationals should do. Why wouldn't you want to deploy and outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Bryce Harper, though? Nothing against Adam Eaton, who is a fantastic player, but he's not Bryce Harper. So, here's where it gets tricky.

If you thought that Max Scherzer's contract was confusing, wait until you see what Bryce Harper's is going to look like. There are going to be multiple opt outs, and if it's with the Nationals, there will absolutely be deferrals. Either way, you've got to figure that Bryce and Scott Boras will be looking to sign the richest contract, both in overall value and in average annual value, in the history of the game. So, if that's the case, the highest salary next year belongs to Mike Trout, who will earn a little over $34 million. You'd imagine Bryce would be targeting a $35 million average, which will probably be a little steep, even on the open market. A possible workaround though, could be a 12-year $330 million deal. That would edge Giancarlo Stanton's $325 million deal, but the average annual value would fall short of the $35 million mark, coming in at $27.5 million. Assuming there are a couple of opt-out opportunities in the contract, the Nationals could structure it in a way favorable to both the team and to Bryce. If you front load the contract and offer $105 million due in the first 3 years of the deal, Bryce would earn $35 million in each of those three years. That would beat Trout's average annual value. Bryce would then have the opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 9 years and $225 million of the contract and hit free agency again at 29 years old. If Bryce were to opt out and hit free agency at 29, the Nationals would likely bow out. The team would be off the hook for the remaining $225 million and wouldn't have to worry about how Bryce would age over the next 10 years as the contract goes on (see Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera).

The trickle down effect of Bryce resigning will be felt in a couple different areas though. Adam Eaton will most likely be on his way out of town if Bryce resigns. Although, there is an interesting scenario where the Nationals hang onto Eaton and let Soto platoon with Zimmerman at first base. No, that's not saying Soto won't play everyday - he will. He would be the primary left fielder, but would play first in a similar role to how Matt Adams and Adam Lind played first the past two years. That allows Soto to play everyday and Eaton to still log somewhere between 350-400 at bats next season. It may not make sense to keep Eaton for $8.4 million, but if he's on the roster along with Bryce next season, it's because either Soto or Bryce are going to play some first base. If Eaton is dealt, the Nationals save that $8.4 million, pick up a couple good prospects in return and then can potentially reallocate that money elsewhere, which is huge because of the need in the rotation and the bullpen. The other player that will feel a trickle down effect of Bryce's extension is Anthony Rendon. Rendon is poised to become a free agent following the 2019 season. With Bryce and his big fat contract back in the fold, there is most likely not enough money left to pay Rendon next year. If Bryce walks, the Nationals will likely immediately pivot to locking Rendon up this offseason. Although Rendon is represented by Scott Boras, who likes his players to the open market, Rendon has already made it clear he's willing to discuss an extension. A Rendon extension would surely be a fraction of the cost of a Harper extension (think 7 years $160 million-ish). 

If you were looking at starting the offseason with somewhere near $75.733 million to spend, you're looking at $40.733 million after a possible Bryce extension. That feels light when the Nationals are going to have to address other needs. If you trade Eaton, you're possibly looking at around $49.133 million, and that's only if the Lerners are willing to match last year's payroll. Either way, it's not an exorbitant amount of money to spend when you take into consideration what the starting pitching and relief market normally commands. We'll dive into what the Nationals can do to improve their other needs this offseason at a later time, but for now, it's decision time for the Nationals and unfortunately, there's no clear way to go and it may very well come down to who to keep: Bryce Harper vs. Anthony Rendon.

The Final Month

It's been a rough year for Nationals fans. Despite high expectations, the team has hovered around .500 much of the year and in the process, watched the Braves turn into a contender (and likely a powerhouse in the National League for years to come). Frankly, if you don't care about seeing some of the eventual September call-ups playing, there's no real reason to watch Nationals games anymore. The Nationals are 8 games back of the Braves in the N.L. East and 7 games back in the wild card (behind 3 other teams for the second spot). The Nationals have slim to no shot at making the playoffs. They haven't been less than 7 games behind the Braves since August 12th, so there's no reason to think they can make an actual push with just 28 games to go. 

On August 13th, I said that by today, we would probably see Rizzo try to move Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Kelvin Herrera and Matt Adams. Herrera clearly isn't going anywhere, but with Murphy and Adams already out, it looks like Gio and Ryan Madson could be next. I can't imagine a contender actually wants Gio Gonzalez starting every 5th day for them, but there is apparent interest. It makes me wonder about the competence of the scouting department of the interested teams, but that's not the Nationals problem. Ryan Madson was claimed on revocable waivers last night by the Dodgers and it appears that he will be headed to Los Angeles sometime in the next 24 hours (probably as a straight waiver claim, as his 5.28 ERA doesn't warrant a prospect return).

The deals for Murphy and Adams were odd. Not because I didn't expect them to be traded, but because of the timing of the deal. Rizzo placed Murphy and Adams on waivers on Friday, August 17th, just prior to a 3 game series against the Marlins. The Nationals were 61-61 at the time, coming off an atrocious road trip, 8 games back in the East and 6 1/2 back in the wild card. They had 3 games against the Marlins and then 6 of their next 9 games against the Phillies. I had circled today as the day that the Nationals would unload any upcoming free agents (aside from Bryce) because it's an off day, coming off a stretch of 6 of 9 games against a viable playoff contender. It's a time where the front office could have sat back and assessed where the team is and what their strategy was going to be for the rest of the season. Being that the Nationals sat back and did a whole lot of nothing at the trade deadline, selling off pieces on August 20th, instead of August 30th seemed very odd, especially when you had 12 games in a row against division opponents sitting in front of you. If there was a time that the Nationals were going to make a move to get back in the race, it was going to be last week, so having one of your best hitters no longer on the team doesn't help your cause. It's not like the Nationals got a big return for either player. I'm sure the return on both would have been the same today as it was on August 20th. Could Murphy or Adams have changed the outcome in any of those 3 shutout losses last week? We'll never know, hence the odd timing of the deals.

We can assess the season as a whole sometime in October, when we're all sitting back on the couch and watching actual good teams play playoff baseball. One major thing we're going to take a look at though is whether or not Davey Martinez is in over his head. The early answer is absolutely. I've been fairly patient with him this season and I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt being that he's a rookie manager, but the early assessment is that he's not the guy that we were told he would be. He does not use analytics, he does not have a good feel for when to go to the bullpen, and I'm fairly concerned about what kind of presence he has in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have a leader (it's tough for Max as a pitcher to be that guy). This team needs their manager to be their leader and unfortunately, Davey isn't going to be that guy - Dusty Baker and Davey Johnson were that guy. Joe Girardi could have been that guy. I anticipate that Davey will be back (take that with a grain of salt - I also anticipated Dusty Baker would be back) and the hope is that he will learn from his mistakes in year one. Maybe this team resets in the offseason and comes back next season to win the division. Right now though, the way this season has played out, it seems like they've got a long road ahead.

Wave the White Flag

The Washington Nationals 2018 season ended last night, once again at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. I don't care what the standings say, they've said the same thing for the past 2 months - the Nationals are close enough to make a move, and close enough to not be written off, but I'm officially writing them off. On June 30th, the Nationals were 3 games over .500 and 5 games out of first place. Today, the Nationals are 2 games over .500 and 5.5 games out of first place. They've gone 18-19 in that stretch and lost a half game in the standings. 

There is nothing to this point insinuating that this team is anything more than a .500 team. They played 8 2/3 of nearly flawless baseball last night and lost on a walk-off grand slam. They find new ways to lose winnable games on a nightly basis. They're 11-20 in 1-run games. That's the 5th worst record in 1-run games in the Major Leagues. The teams with worse records in 1-run games are the Orioles, Twins, Mets and Reds. Those 4 teams have a combined winning percentage of .405 this season. The Nationals have played 22 games since they all-star break. They're 12-10 in those 22 games. In 5 of those 10 losses, they've either been tied or leading in the 6th inning or later. This is not a good baseball team. They would have to go 30-14 to get to 90 wins now. It's not going to happen. The Braves have to go 26-21 to reach 90 wins and the Phillies have to go 25-20 to reach 90 wins. That will not be difficult for either of those teams. 

There are many delicate flowers nursing themselves back to health right now. Stephen Strasburg, Kelvin Herrera and now Ryan Madson all have had poor outings since the all-star break that have cost the Nationals 3 wins. All 3 have claimed they are not healthy after the game. They did not tell the bullpen coach, the pitching coach or the manager of the injury prior to entering the game in any of those three scenarios. They instead told the media after the game. It's easy to claim you're injured after a poor outing. It's way easier than saying "yeah, I didn't have it tonight, I let the team down". So, these three will now hang out on the disabled list together, knowing that they've blown multiple opportunities for this team to make a move in the division race due to their "injuries". 

There's no accountability, no cohesiveness and most of all no urgency from this team. Davey Martinez's post game interviews are turning more and more Matt Williams like by the day. I don't know if he realizes this, but the season will end. There will be a day where you won't be able to say "I believe in these guys, they're going to get hot and when they do, watch out." Matt Williams is still somewhere talking about the game "tomorrow." Pretty soon, Davey Martinez might be right next to him. Mike Rizzo is lucky he got his extension prior to the season, because right or wrong, he wouldn't be getting one after this season.

There isn't a whole lot to look forward to for the rest of the season, but there are a couple of things to watch out for. If and when Mike Rizzo decides this team is out of it - possibly around August 30th which would be right after 6 games in 9 days against the Phillies, he will probably try to trade Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, Kelvin Herrera and Gio Gonzalez. Assuming all can clear waivers, or assuming a trade can be worked out with a claiming team for each of those players, Rizzo will have officially called it a year. Once that happens, the only thing left will be to see if the Lerners make the decision to move on from Davey Martinez. He will still have 2 years left on his deal, but only at $750,000 per year. I don't imagine they will have a problem with that if they want to bring somebody else on board. At this point though, there aren't going to be many candidates lining up to take this job. Many free agents will be departing and you'll be managing a team where the owners have shown no loyalness to its manager. It has not been a good year for baseball in the nation's capital and it only looks to get worse from here.

Second Half Recipe

The second half will begin on Friday with the Nationals sitting at 48-48, in 3rd place in the National League East and 5.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals need to do better. There is too much talent on this roster for them to be a .500 team through 96 games this season. The next 66 games are a golden opportunity to show the baseball world that they're not quite dead. Unfortunately, the hole they dug in the first half means they probably have to play .630 or better baseball in the second half to make the playoffs, but they've done that numerous times in prior seasons. The goal is reach 90 wins, which would mean a 42-24 second half for the Nationals. The Nationals have played .600 or better baseball in the second half 3 times in the past 6 seasons. In 2012, the Nationals went 49-30 in the second half, in 2014, they went 45-24 and in 2016, they went 45-29. They're going to have to make it 4 of the past 7 to be playing baseball this October.

The Nationals are tied for the 7th easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Phillies check in tied for the 5th easiest and the Braves are tied for the 10th easiest. The Nationals opponent's winning percentage is a combined .492. They have 19 combined games left against the Marlins and Mets. The season could very well come down to how they play in those 19 games. Say you go 15-4 in those 19 games (highly unlikely, but possible), that means you have to go 27-20 in your remaining 47 games. That seems a lot less daunting than going 42-24 over 66 games. Beat the bad teams. It's how the Nationals have won the division the past two years. It's going to be the recipe to do it again this year. They are 21-14 against teams below .500 so far this year. That's a .600 winning percentage. For comparison, the Nationals played .616 baseball against below .500 teams last year. The biggest difference between the two years is that the Nationals played an astounding 120 of their 162 games against teams below .500 last year. That's 74% of their games. So far this year, they've played just 35 of their first 96 games against teams below .500. They have 25 games remaining against teams below .500. There clearly aren't as many games against sub-par opponents as there were last year, which means the opportunity to pounce on those teams looms even larger.

The second part to mounting this comeback is equally as important as beating the bad teams. The Nationals have 18 combined games left against the Phillies and Braves. They get the Braves for a 3 game series straight out of the break. They have a pivotal road trip from September 10-16 where they go to Philadelphia for 3 and then to Atlanta for 3. These 18 games are a golden opportunity to make up ground on the two teams in front of you. The goal has to be win each of those 6 series. If you win all 6 series by winning 2 of 3 games (there are no remaining 4 game series against either of these teams), then you go at least 12-6 against those two teams. There's no doubt that 12-6 is unlikely, as is 15-4 against the below .500 teams, but if you do it, you set yourself up really nicely.

So, the big question is - how do you make this happen? Bryce needs to catch fire, Roark needs to get back on track, Strasburg needs to stay healthy and Zimmerman needs to come back mirroring his 2017 self. Those who may have forgotten, Manny Machado had an extremely average first half last season. Machado hit .230/.296/.445 with a .741 OPS, 18 home runs and 47 RBI. He rebounded to hit .290/.326/.500 with a .826 OPS, 15 home runs and 48 RBI in the second half. Bryce's first half numbers this year, minus batting average, are actually better than Machado's first half last year. There's no reason to think that Bryce can't catch fire and carry this team offensively for a month or more. Strasburg's health and Tanner Roark's consistency are the key to the starting rotation's success in the second half. If Roark comes out and throws one or two duds to start the second half, then you can expect Mike Rizzo to make a deal to bring in a starting pitcher. In the past, the Nationals were fortunate enough to be able to let their starting pitchers "work through" their issues because of their large division leads. This year, they can't afford to have starting pitchers consistently putting them in 3-0 and 4-0 holes after the 2nd or 3rd inning.

The Chicago Cubs went into the All-Star break last year at 43-45 and 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. They went on to finish 92-70 and win the N.L. Central by 6 games. They rode a 49-25 second half into the playoffs. The Nationals can win the N.L. East this year. They need to come back from the break relaxed and ready for a battle with the Phillies and Braves. They need to take at least 2 of 3 against the Braves coming out of the break to set the tone for the second half comeback. They need to be ready to flex their muscles and show the rest of the league they're not dead. On the heels of Bryce Harper's impending free agency, this is either going to be the most exciting second half that Nationals fans have ever seen, or a second half that culminates in one of the most disappointing seasons that Nationals fans have endured since baseball came back to the District in 2005.

July 31st

After 2 straight losses, they're back to .500 at 45-45. They're 3-6 in July. They finished June 9-16. The arrow is pointing down, but these next 6 games before the All-Star break may very well decide whether or not the Nationals are buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Nationals started this "easy" 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets with a 3-2 record. Not good. These are bad teams. They needed an 8-3 stretch here, so that means a 5-1 finish to the first half. Not impossible, but surely not likely based on how the starting rotation is pitching. The starters finished June with a cumulative 3-14 record and a 5.54 ERA. Not to be outdone, they've started July with a 1-4 record and a 7.98 ERA. They're not getting it done. They're not giving the team a chance to win. Tanner Roark is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA over his past 5 starts and Gio Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA over his past 5 starts.

The bats are not completely off the hook, but, they're putting up 5.56 runs per game so far in July, which is coming off a June where we saw them hit .238 and average 4 runs per game. That does take into account the 14 run outburst on Thursday and the 18 run outburst on Saturday, but it's an improvement from June, nonetheless. But, when you're allowing 6.22 runs per game and start every game in a 3-0 hole, you put an already struggling offense in a terrible situation. I'm not sure what the solution is right now. The already taxed bullpen can't catch a break because the starters can't get through the 4th inning. A bullpen with no clear long reliever can only take so much abuse before it falters. For now, it would be reasonable to expect Jefry Rodriguez get sent back down so the Nationals can call a fresh arm up, most likely Sammy Solis, Wander Suero or Trevor Gott. On Saturday, the Nationals will need a 5th starter again, which will most likely be Austin Voth. We can only hope we've seen the last of Jefry Rodriguez for the year. If we haven't, it means this team is in big trouble.

At 45-45, the Nationals are 5.5 games out of first place and 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Unless they fall 9 or 10 games back, the Nationals aren't going to sell at the deadline. Even then, they still might not sell. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it's been how this team operates ever since they made the playoffs in 2012. In 2013, when they were 11 games out with a 52-56 record at the end of July and they didn't sell.

Aside from winning games, the Nationals need to do something they haven't done at the trade deadline since they've become buyers. They need to acquire a starting pitcher. Some of the names that have been tossed around are J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi. All of those are rental players, but two other rental players that nobody seems to be talking about are Garrett Richards and Lance Lynn. The Angels are currently 11 games out of a playoff spot and the Twins are 8.5 games out. Both are going to be sellers. If Garrett Richards becomes available, he probably will be the most sought after starting pitcher on the market. Although he has a history of injuries, Richards owns a 3.52 career ERA and a 5-4 record through 15 starts this year with a 3.42 ERA. Lynn on the other hand, has a 6-7 record through 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA. The 5.21 ERA leaves a lot to be desired, but Lynn has given the Twins quality starts in 7 of his past 12 starts and aside from his July 1st start against the Cubs, he hasn't given up more than 4 earned runs in a start since April. Lynn could definitely benefit from a switch back to the National League. The other positive with Lynn is that he most likely wouldn't cost too much. The Twins still owe Lynn a little over $5 million, so if the Nationals assume most or all of that salary, the Twins will most likely take a mid-level prospect in return. Lance Lynn for Brigham Hill, who was the Nationals 5th round pick in 2017 and 18th best prospect, could be enough to get a deal done. Acquiring Richards would probably require a top 10 prospect, along with a lesser prospect. That price could prove to be too high, especially if the team is still floundering towards the end of July.

First thing's first - play well, finish 5-1 and head into the break at 50-46. It won't be enough to take over first place or take over a wild card spot, but it'll be enough to stay in the hunt, especially with a pivotal 3 game series with the Braves coming right out of the break. Pitch well, put some runs on the board and finish the first half strong.

Dead in the Water

The Nationals finished May with a 32-23 record, which was good for 1/2 game out of first place. Since then, they've gone 10-17, they're 6-15 over their past 21 games, with their lone series win being against the Orioles. They now sit 2 games above .500, 6 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. It's a similar position to the one that the 2013 Nationals were in. Those Nationals were 42-40, 6 games behind the Braves and 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card position. Those Nationals had a 10-16 July, where they finished 52-56, 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games behind the Braves.

Interestingly, the 2013 Nationals and 2018 Nationals have a lot in common. Not a whole lot of hitting, but very solid pitching. The 2013 Nationals averaged 4.05 runs per game, hit .251 and had an OPS of .710. The 2018 Nationals average 4.24 runs per game, hit .239 with an OPS of .715. The pitching was just as close, with the 2013 Nationals having a staff ERA of 3.59 and the 2018 Nationals sitting at 3.67. The 2013 Nationals finished with a 86-76 record. They finished 11 games behind the Braves and 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. The way the 2018 Nationals look right now, they'd be lucky to win 86 games. 

You can only harp on the same things so many times, last year it was the bullpen, this year it's the bats. The Nationals top hitter with runners in scoring position so far this season? That would be Max Scherzer who is 5 for 12, good for a .412 batting average. Andrew Stevenson is second, going 5 for 13. Matt Adams is third, hitting .357, going 15 for 42 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals have gone 4-11 without Matt Adams. They're averaging 3.93 runs per game in his absence, and yes, that includes a 17 run outburst on Friday night. Bryce Harper is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, while Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto are both hitting .259. Those numbers aren't horrible, but they surely aren't good. None of your middle of the order bats are hitting over .260 with runners in scoring position. If you want some good comparables, Freddie Freeman is hitting .389 with runners in scoring position, Jose Altuve is at .379, Nolan Arenado is at .354. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have star potential, but they're hitting over .100 points lower than some of the top players in the league with runners in scoring position. Hitting .300+ with runners in scoring position is your only way to drive in 100+ runs in this league. It's tough to win when you rely so heavily on the long ball, hence the 9-16 June record. The Nationals hit 20 home runs in June, which was good for 25th in the Majors. Of those 20 home runs in June, 7 of them were hit on Friday night. 

So, what do you do now? I don't know. Continue breaking the season down into little pieces. You're in the middle of a tougher stretch here with 4 against the Phillies and now 3 against the Red Sox. You're 1-3 so far, so you're probably looking at a 2-5 stretch now. Win 1 against the Red Sox and you're 43-42 headed into an 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets to end the first half. The only acceptable way to finish the first half against those 3 would be by going at least 8-3, hopefully better. At 51-45, you at least give yourself a chance in the second half. Anything worse and you may have put yourself in a hole that you can't dig out of.

Time to Hold Somebody Accountable

Kevin Long was supposed to be the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long is not in fact the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long was given the keys to a fairly loaded lineup, anchored by a superstar and a couple of All-Stars. Kevin Long's work (or lack thereof) may have in fact solidified him as the worst hitting coach in all of Major League Baseball. Kevin Long should not be boarding a plane with the Washington Nationals to head to Philadelphia today. On Monday, July 22, 2013, the Washington Nationals fired hitting coach Rick Eckstein. At that time, the Nationals were hitting .241 and averaging 3.69 runs per game through 98 games. This year's Washington Nationals are hitting .239 and are averaging 4.14 runs per game through 78 games. They have been shut out in 10% their games this season, or 8 times in 78 games. That's the exact amount the 2013 Nationals had been shutout through 78 games and one more time than the Nationals were shutout through the entirety of last season, though it took this Nationals team less than half the time to accomplish that feat.

Kevin Long loves "launch angle". He wants you to hit home runs. That sounds like a lot of fun. Except, the Washington Nationals have hit 85 home runs this year, good for 18th in the Major Leagues in that category. So, if they're not hitting for average and they're not hitting for power, how are they scoring? Well, they're not! In fact, the Nationals have scored a National League low 78 runs in their 22 games in June and haven't scored in over 18 innings of baseball.

Since going from the Yankees to the Mets prior to the 2013 season, only one of Long's teams have cracked the top 20 in MLB in team batting average or OPS, and that was last year's Mets who hit .250, which was good for 19th in the league, with an OPS of .755, which was good for 14th in the league. This is his style. It doesn't work and it hasn't worked for quite some time now. Some people say that batting average is a tired statistic and it doesn't matter all that much anymore. Not me. The 2015 Kansas City Royals finished the year 3rd in the league in batting average, hitting .269. The 2016 Chicago Cubs, the only team in the past 3 years to finish outside of the top 10 in the league, finished the year 14th in batting average, hitting .256 (.17 points higher than this year's Nationals, mind you). The 2017 Houston Astros finished the year last year first in batting average, at .282 and first in OPS, at .823. The Nationals are 22nd in the league in batting average and 19th in OPS. You can't win if you don't get on base. You can't win if you don't score.

If the season ended today, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo would all three finish with the lowest batting averages of their careers. If Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman qualified, they too would finish with the worst batting averages of their careers. When one or two guys have a down year, you just chalk it up to bad luck. When three or more guys are having down years, you can begin to questions the philosophy.

This is not a good fit. Quit trying to make it work. Cut ties here before he can get his paws on Juan Soto's perfect swing and great plate discipline.