In 2012, Ian had a career year and helped lead the Nationals to their first division title. He hit .292 with 25 home runs and 33 doubles, which was good for a .845 OPS. He finished 16th on the NL MVP ballot that season. Could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure he could have, but that was never a realistic expectation. Ian followed up his 2012 campaign by hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 38 doubles in 2013, which was good for a .784 OPS. His 2013 season was a hell of a season, not just for a shortstop, but for anybody. Again, could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure, but again, he probably wasn't going to. Ian Desmond had never hit above .269 before his 2012 season. In his six years in the minor leagues, Ian was a .259 hitter with a .714 OPS. So why all of a sudden are people wondering where the guy went that hit .292 and .280? It was a mirage, Ian was playing at an unsustainable level compared to how he had played in his previous 8 years in professional baseball. Ian's 2015 season was abysmal, there's no getting around that. However, in 2014, Ian hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, 24 stolen bases and a .743 OPS. That's a season that you can expect year in and year out from Ian Desmond. Show me five other shortstops who are going to put that kind of season together for you over the next three to four years. You can't. In 2015, Ian hit .233 with 19 home runs. He struck out 187 times. He was awful. He was also haunted by a first half which saw him hit .211. He was no better than a replacement level player. He battled back to hit .262 in the second half though with 12 home runs. The second half Ian Desmond was the real Ian.
You can form whatever opinion you want about Ian Desmond, but if you're a Nationals fan, there's no denying that he would make this team better this year. He won't hit .233 again this season. He just won't. Just like he won't hit .292 ever again in his career. Those two seasons were outliers, you're better off acting as if they never happened. The fact that teams don't want to touch him because of his awful year last year is asinine. It's time for the Nationals and Ian to work something out that benefits both parties. I know Mike Rizzo said Ian won't be back, but you mean to tell me the longer Ian sits there that Rizzo doens't at least thing about it? Trea Turner is almost ready, but he could still use another few months (or up to a year) in the minors. No need to rush him up. There will be a need to rush him up though if Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew are expected to play shortstop all year. Danny Espinosa is a great utility guy and a great guy to have on your team. With that being said, he had one of his best seasons in the Majors last year by hitting .240 with 13 home runs. If it were you, would you put your money on Espinosa hitting .240 or better next year or Ian hitting .233 or better next year? I'd put my money on Ian. That's no knock on Espinosa, the fact of the matter is Ian is the better hitter and Espinosa is the better defender.
The Nationals need to take a chance here. The Nationals will assume 100% of the risk, but the reward could be huge. If you get 2014 Ian Desmond who hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, then you just added a major threat to the middle of an already revamped and potent lineup. A two year contract with an opt out after one year should be enough to get Ian back in Washington. Let's say its a two year $18 million deal with $12 million to be paid this year and $6 million next year if he opts to stay. If Ian comes anywhere close to the guy we saw from 2012-2014, then he opts out and gets a very nice payday somewhere else. In turn, the Nationals add another big bat to the lineup this year and can still slap Ian with the qualifying offer next offseason. It could be a win-win for Ian and the Nationals. If Ian has another season like he did last year and he happens to stay in 2017, then the Nationals are on the hook for $6 million. You can't worry about the $6 million. Nate McLouth pocketed almost $6 million of the Lerner's money last year sitting on his couch. So, Ted Lerner and Mike Rizzo - it's time to bring Desmond back to the District.
Last thing - If you're still not convinced, take a look at the potential lineups. Keep in mind Danny Espinosa hit .158 in 2013 and was sent to the minors then hit .219 in 2014. In case you were wondering, Stephen Drew hit .201 last season. Here are your options:
- Revere - CF 1. Ben Revere - CF
- Anthony Rendon - 2B 2. Anthony Rendon - 2B
- Bryce Harper - RF 3. Bryce Harper - RF
- Ryan Zimmerman - 1B 4. Ryan Zimmerman - 1B
- Daniel Murphy - 2B 5. Daniel Murphy - 2B
- Jayson Werth - LF 6. Jayson Werth - LF
- Danny Espinosa/Stephen Drew - SS 7. Ian Desmond - SS
- Wilson Ramos - C 8. Wilson Ramos - C
- Starting Pitcher 9. Starting Pitcher
There's no denying the lineup takes a huge dip after Werth, but with Desmond in the fold, it doesn't have to take that dip.
