We're five days away from Opening Day now and we already know that we will be without two of our starting three outfielders and our starting third baseman to open the season. Not to mention that Nate McLouth is still banged up and Casey Janssen may head to the disabled list as well. Not exactly how we wanted to start the year, but injuries happen and there's nothing you can do about it. I'd much rather be without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth in April than be without them in October for the playoffs. Knowing that the Nationals will be without Span, Werth, and Rendon to open the season, here is how the final roster may play out.
Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.
Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.
Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker
Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Extension, Anyone?
Spring Training is officially underway, with all pitchers, catchers, and position players having had to report by today. The next month or so is going to be slow but exciting. New players are getting to know the team, while older players are enjoying their time back together. We're going to get to see a few players this Spring that will be with the Nats "next wave" of players. The one we all want to see however, won't be at big league camp. Lucas Giolito will again be on a restricted innings limit this season and to try and limit distractions, Giolito will be preparing for the season in Minor League camp. There's no doubt that he will get a Spring Training invitation next year though with a strong shot of making the team if Doug Fister and/or Jordan Zimmermann leave via free agency.
The Nationals have 8 players on their current 25 man roster that will be free agents next offseason, four of them stand to be huge loses if the team can not resign them. Those four are Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. Two of those four have already made it known that if they do not agree to a new deal before the end of Spring Training, there will be no more negotiating and they will become free agents following the season. Those two are Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, two of the most important players on the team.
The Nationals projected payroll for the 2015 season is $162 million, which is a franchise record. The Nationals obviously won't have a payroll that high from here on out, which makes it so great that the Lerners have agreed to go all in with this team this year and keep everyone together. With that being said, almost $54 million will be coming off the books next year if all eight of those players depart via free agency. That would put the Nationals payroll at about $108 million (not taking into consideration raises in arbitration). That's not going to happen. I would estimate that on a normal season the Nationals are going to operate with a payroll around $130-140 million, as they did last year. Since the Nationals structured Max Scherzer's deal with a ton of deferrals, it means that the team has the money to spend going into next year. So what do they do with that money?
They could hypothetically try to extend other players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. They're all Scott Boras clients though, so unless Mike Rizzo wrote into Max Scherzer's mega deal that Boras had to negotiate with the Nationals on extending Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it's just not going to happen. Boras wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value, which is bad news for the Nationals. With that being said, the Nationals need to work hard to extend Ian Desmond within the next month to month and a half.
The value Desmond brings to this team is seen on and off the field. He's clearly one of the team leaders and he's a top 3 shortstop in the Major Leagues and if you don't think so, then feel free to list off all of the shortstops in the league who have had 20/20 seasons each of the past three years. I'll give you a hint, there weren't any. It's not going to be cheap to extend Desmond by any means, but it will most likely be way cheaper than extending Zimmermann. What would it take? Probably something like 5 years for $115 million could get the job done. He's on a one year, $11 million deal for this upcoming season, so the total value of the contract would go to 6 years for $126 million. That's the exact value of Jayson Werth's deal, but its one year less than Werth's deal. Speaking of Werth, his deal would come off the books in 2018, which would be just 2 years into Desmond's extension. So the point is, the Nationals can absolutely make the finances work. Some people may say, well Troy Tulowitzki's extension was for 6 years and $118 million, why would Desmond get more? It's simple, Desmond can stay on the field, Tulo can't. Even if Tulo is the better hitter, he's played 47, 126, and 91 games over the past three seasons. Desmond has played in 130, 158, and 154 the past three seasons. The deal would make Desmond the highest paid shortstop in the Majors. Desmond always said that he wants a deal that's fair and that isn't going to screw over the next guy in line for a contract. In order to do that, he needs to top Elvis Andrus's ludicrous deal that the Texas Rangers drunkenly gave him which was 8 years and $118 million. This proposed deal would top that in everything except for length of the contract, which isn't a fair comparison because Andrus is 3 years younger than Desmond, so obviously his deal would be longer. It's tough to hammer something out when there are time restraints and everybody is trying to get ready for the season, but this is a deal that has to be done. Sure Trea Turner is coming over from the Padres this summer to be the Nationals shortstop of the future, but by having Desmond resigned, you have your middle infield set for the next 6 years. Desmond will play shortstop until either 1) his contract runs out, or 2) Turner provides better defense at short than Desmond.
Yes, this scenario means Zimmermann would walk after the 2015 season. It's extremely tough to let somebody like Jordan Zimmermann walk away and only receive a draft pick back, but the moment Max Scherzer signed here, it was the only possible ending. Zimmermann's price tag is a bit higher than the 6 years and $155 million that Jon Lester got, but a bit lower than the 7 years and $210 million that Scherzer got. There is no way any team other than maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can justify having two pitchers on their roster with contracts over $150 million. The Nationals are deep in pitching in the Minor Leagues with A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, and others waiting in the wings. Tanner Roark is also sitting here waiting for his next opportunity to start after turning in a 15 win season with a 2.85 ERA in 2014.
There are a lot of tough decisions that Mike Rizzo has to make over the next month or so, but there's no doubt in my mind that he needs to get a Desmond extension done. You can lock him up now for around $125-130 million, but if you wait until he hits free agency, especially after a good year, you may be paying $150 million or higher and that's most likely not in the budget. Make it happen, lock Desmond up, and as much as I love Jordan Zimmermann playing for the Nationals, it's time to say goodbye because this will be his last season wearing a curly W.
The Nationals have 8 players on their current 25 man roster that will be free agents next offseason, four of them stand to be huge loses if the team can not resign them. Those four are Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. Two of those four have already made it known that if they do not agree to a new deal before the end of Spring Training, there will be no more negotiating and they will become free agents following the season. Those two are Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, two of the most important players on the team.
The Nationals projected payroll for the 2015 season is $162 million, which is a franchise record. The Nationals obviously won't have a payroll that high from here on out, which makes it so great that the Lerners have agreed to go all in with this team this year and keep everyone together. With that being said, almost $54 million will be coming off the books next year if all eight of those players depart via free agency. That would put the Nationals payroll at about $108 million (not taking into consideration raises in arbitration). That's not going to happen. I would estimate that on a normal season the Nationals are going to operate with a payroll around $130-140 million, as they did last year. Since the Nationals structured Max Scherzer's deal with a ton of deferrals, it means that the team has the money to spend going into next year. So what do they do with that money?
They could hypothetically try to extend other players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. They're all Scott Boras clients though, so unless Mike Rizzo wrote into Max Scherzer's mega deal that Boras had to negotiate with the Nationals on extending Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it's just not going to happen. Boras wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value, which is bad news for the Nationals. With that being said, the Nationals need to work hard to extend Ian Desmond within the next month to month and a half.
The value Desmond brings to this team is seen on and off the field. He's clearly one of the team leaders and he's a top 3 shortstop in the Major Leagues and if you don't think so, then feel free to list off all of the shortstops in the league who have had 20/20 seasons each of the past three years. I'll give you a hint, there weren't any. It's not going to be cheap to extend Desmond by any means, but it will most likely be way cheaper than extending Zimmermann. What would it take? Probably something like 5 years for $115 million could get the job done. He's on a one year, $11 million deal for this upcoming season, so the total value of the contract would go to 6 years for $126 million. That's the exact value of Jayson Werth's deal, but its one year less than Werth's deal. Speaking of Werth, his deal would come off the books in 2018, which would be just 2 years into Desmond's extension. So the point is, the Nationals can absolutely make the finances work. Some people may say, well Troy Tulowitzki's extension was for 6 years and $118 million, why would Desmond get more? It's simple, Desmond can stay on the field, Tulo can't. Even if Tulo is the better hitter, he's played 47, 126, and 91 games over the past three seasons. Desmond has played in 130, 158, and 154 the past three seasons. The deal would make Desmond the highest paid shortstop in the Majors. Desmond always said that he wants a deal that's fair and that isn't going to screw over the next guy in line for a contract. In order to do that, he needs to top Elvis Andrus's ludicrous deal that the Texas Rangers drunkenly gave him which was 8 years and $118 million. This proposed deal would top that in everything except for length of the contract, which isn't a fair comparison because Andrus is 3 years younger than Desmond, so obviously his deal would be longer. It's tough to hammer something out when there are time restraints and everybody is trying to get ready for the season, but this is a deal that has to be done. Sure Trea Turner is coming over from the Padres this summer to be the Nationals shortstop of the future, but by having Desmond resigned, you have your middle infield set for the next 6 years. Desmond will play shortstop until either 1) his contract runs out, or 2) Turner provides better defense at short than Desmond.
Yes, this scenario means Zimmermann would walk after the 2015 season. It's extremely tough to let somebody like Jordan Zimmermann walk away and only receive a draft pick back, but the moment Max Scherzer signed here, it was the only possible ending. Zimmermann's price tag is a bit higher than the 6 years and $155 million that Jon Lester got, but a bit lower than the 7 years and $210 million that Scherzer got. There is no way any team other than maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can justify having two pitchers on their roster with contracts over $150 million. The Nationals are deep in pitching in the Minor Leagues with A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, and others waiting in the wings. Tanner Roark is also sitting here waiting for his next opportunity to start after turning in a 15 win season with a 2.85 ERA in 2014.
There are a lot of tough decisions that Mike Rizzo has to make over the next month or so, but there's no doubt in my mind that he needs to get a Desmond extension done. You can lock him up now for around $125-130 million, but if you wait until he hits free agency, especially after a good year, you may be paying $150 million or higher and that's most likely not in the budget. Make it happen, lock Desmond up, and as much as I love Jordan Zimmermann playing for the Nationals, it's time to say goodbye because this will be his last season wearing a curly W.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Bright Future...Even With Most Arrogant, Least Likable Werth
Around this time of year, while not much else is going on, MLB.com and a few other websites put out their farm system rankings. Based on most of these rankings, the Nationals appear to be in good shape, with the only knock on their farm system being that they lack depth. The Nationals top prospects though are good, really good. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor, A.J. Cole, and Trea Turner (even though he's still listed as a Padres prospect) all made MLB.com's list of the top 100 prospects. Giolito ranked as the best right handed pitching prospect in the game. Being that the Nationals already have the best rotation in the Major Leagues, is it really fair that they also have the top prospect? Well, 15 other teams passed on Giolito, so yeah, it's more than fair.
Bleacher Report ranks the Nationals farm system as the 11th best in baseball and Sporting News actually put them a bit higher and made them the 8th best farm system. Mike Rizzo has done a great job not only making sure that the team is competitive now, but also will be competitive in the future. That's an incredibly tough thing to do and its what makes teams like the Cardinals competitive year in and year out. When Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals in 2010, it signaled that the Nationals were ready to start competing. At that time, the Nationals had the 15th ranked farm system in baseball and that was with Bryce Harper among others in the minors. The group they have in the minors right now is ranked even higher than that. The Major League team they're fielding right now is expected to be one of the best in baseball. That's awfully impressive.
Speaking of Jayson Werth, I don't know if you heard or not, but "Werth is one of the most arrogant, least likable athletes in sports". Also, "Jayson Werth is one of the least likable athletes in the history of Washington D.C.". At least according to John Feinstein. With that being said, this is the most asinine, meaningless comment Feinstein may have ever made. Oh, Werth doesn't treat you well? Oh, I'm sorry. Werth's job isn't to talk to you and be friendly with you. His job is to play baseball. He wasn't signed to a 7 year $126 million contract because he's nice to the media. He was signed because he's a good baseball player, he's won before, and he's a good guy in the clubhouse. If Werth hits .280 with 15+ home runs a year, I don't care if he talks to the media once or if he talks 162 times, that's his decision. I don't know when part of an athlete's job became talking to the media and playing nice with all the reporters, but it's ridiculous.
I'm fine with the manager having a post game press conference and answering questions about what happened during the game, why he made one decision instead of another, etc. But why should Werth be criticized for not wanting to talk to the media after losing 3-2 in game 4 of the NLDS? Did you want to ask him about what was running through his mind in the top of the 8th inning when he popped out? Who cares. You wanted to know if he thought the team could come back from the 3-2 deficit after Aaron Barrett's wild pitch? Once again, who cares. I promise, you can find enough to write about without getting a quote from Werth about how the team played hard and competed but came up short. It's the same generic answer after a loss every time, so the bottom line is, it shouldn't matter. Sure the fact that Aaron Barrett, a rookie, stuck around to answer questions was admirable, but that was his decision. It doesn't make me like him any more or like Werth any less. I'm astounded that Werth could be declared one of the least likable athletes in sports. I get it, going 105 MPH in a 55 MPH zone is completely unacceptable, completely unsafe, and sets an awful example. If that along with Werth leaving the clubhouse after Game 4 are the main reasons he's one of the least likable players, then people need to get a grip. There are a number of athletes who don't talk to the media (Marshawn Lynch being one of them, although he does so in a hilarious manner), but I guess since Werth didn't want to talk to John Feinstein or any of his buddies after losing a tough elimination game in the playoffs, he's now unlikable. Gilbert Arenas brought guns into the Wizards clubhouse because of an issue over gambling debts, but I guess that was alright because he was amusing and talked to the media after every game, right? Nonetheless, Mike Rizzo decided to give Feinstein a call about the Werth comments and I hope Riz gave him an earful.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
I Told You Guys!
In my previous post, I said to expect the Nationals to announce some more big news in the next 7 to 10 days. Here we are about a week later and the Nationals have signed reliever Casey Janssen. Alright, not exactly the big announcement I was expecting/talking about. It's actually better. There was a glaring hole in the bullpen after Tyler Clippard was traded to Oakland and that hole will now be filled by Janssen, who has saved 81 games over the past 3 seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Monday, January 19, 2015
Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister......and Roark?
Let me start off by saying I trust anything that Mike Rizzo does. He's done enough for this organization over the past 7-8 years to earn the trust of all of the fans. With that being said, a mere two months ago, Tom Boswell wrote an article in The Washington Post quoting Rizzo's dad as telling Rizzo "don't fall in love with your own players." That's exactly what happened here. Max Scherzer was in fact drafted by Rizzo while he was with the Diamondbacks in 2006. Sure, Rizzo was here when the Nats drafted Jordan Zimmermann in the second round of the 2007 draft, but he was the assistant GM at that point, so we don't know how much say he had in this draft pick. In 2006 in Arizona, Rizzo was the Director of Scouting. Scherzer was his guy, there's no doubt about it.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Your 2015 Second Baseman - Yunel Escobar
Mike Rizzo finally made his move tonight to sure up second base for the 2015 season and possibly further. Tonight, the Washington Nationals traded set up man Tyler Clippard to the Oakland Athletics for shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar wasn't even able to set his bags down in Oakland before he was traded again. If you recall, Escobar was traded to Oakland with Ben Zobrist just last Saturday (yes, that was the same trade that included Boog Powell).
Do I like this move? Yes. Do I love this move? No. Clippard was an incredibly valuable piece of the Nats bullpen, especially last year when his ERA stood at 2.18. He was an awesome 8th inning guy and it's going to be very difficult to replace his productivity. With that being said, Clippard is projected to earn between $9-10 million this year in his final year of arbitration. That's a lot of money to pay a set up man. The part that is a bit confusing to me is that the Nationals could have resigned Asdrubal Cabrera for around the same amount of money that they are going to pay Escobar and still kept Clippard this season. Rizzo is a smart guy though and Escobar may not have been his number one option going into the offseason, but I think he had him ranked ahead of Cabrera for sure. Escobar and Cabrera have both been in the league for 8 years. Over those 8 years, Cabrera has been worth 20.7 WAR, while Escobar has been worth 23 WAR. Not a huge difference, but the bottom line is, it is a difference. Escobar is set to earn $5 million this season, $7 million next season, and he has a $7 million club option or a $1 million buyout. Rizzo traded one year of control of Clippard for potentially three years of control of Escobar at a reasonable price.
Having Escobar under team control for up to three years is big being that Ian Desmond is a free agent after this upcoming season. Trea Turner, who the Nationals just acquired from the Padres, just finished his first season of pro baseball. Chances are he won't be ready for the Majors for another two years. That means if Desmond leaves after this season, Escobar can slide over to shortstop for a year until Turner is ready. That in and of itself made it easier for Rizzo to deal Clippard here.
Escobar should be a nice addition to the Nationals lineup. He can hit for a little bit of power, he gets on base, and the best part is, he doesn't strike out that much. Over the course of his career, he's struck out 498 times over 3,913 at bats. That's just 12.7% in case you were wondering. Just for fun, lets take a look at what the Nationals lineup may look like on April 6th when they take the field against the Mets:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B
3. Jayson Werth, LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
5. Bryce Harper, RF
6. Ian Desmond, SS
7. Wilson Ramos, C
8. Yunel Escobar, 2B
9. Pitcher
Obviously, if Werth is to miss the beginning of the season, the lineup would change a good amount. If he doesn't though, that's a pretty nice lineup I'd say. Don't be surprised if Bryce moves up or down a spot in that lineup. Yup, I said it, it's finally time to give Bryce a chance at hitting cleanup.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
What Jayson Werth's Surgery Means for the Nats & Ben Zobrist Traded
We found out on Thursday that Jayson Werth needed surgery on his right shoulder and is expected to take two to three months to recover. This really shouldn't be a big deal because it's January which means according to the timetable we were given, Werth should be ready to play by March at the latest. Werth is now 35 years old though, so it's entirely possible that his recovery takes longer than three months. If Werth's recovery ends up taking longer than expected, the Nationals have a few options to fill in for Werth.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
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