Just like that, the Nats go from being on fire, to being ice cold, going 1-6 in their last 7 games. They've scored just 15 runs in those 7 games, an average of 2.14 runs per game. It doesn't matter how good your pitching staff is, you aren't going to win games when you're scoring such a small amount of runs. They have a tough schedule ahead as 12 of their next 16 games are against teams with a winning record, so they're going to have to start scoring soon. Especially since 40% of your starting rotation is currently on the DL. Sure Tanner Roark is filling in fantastically for Doug Fister, but Stephen Strasburg's spot in the rotation remains a black hole.
Anthony Rendon is back which is going to help a ton (he's already contributing as he went 2/4 in his season debut last night). The lineup may need some tweaking to spark some offense though. Ryan Zimmerman is just 3 for his last 33 which has dropped his batting average down to .217. This is a tough lineup to switch around though. You could switch Escobar and Rendon in the lineup, which would provide you with more power in the 3 spot and Rendon would still see good pitches with Bryce hitting behind him. The 5-6-7 spots are completely unproductive right now though as all 3 hitters are cold at the same time. You could move Ramos up to 5, drop Zimmerman to 6, and drop Desmond to 7. I don't know if that would do much for you though because like I said, none of those hitters are seeing the ball well right now. In two weeks, all 3 will probably be hot and this will be a non issue, but until then, this team has to figure out creative ways of scoring runs.
Now to the bigger issue. I have no clue how Matt Williams didn't get tossed last night, he kept his cool way better than I would have been able to do. I'm one of those people who usually laughs and makes fun of the fans who blame the umpire or referee for losing a game, but in this case, I'm going to be one of those fans. Marvin Hudson and Rob Drake have no business umpiring Nats games. Marvin Hudson is the umpire who tossed Bryce and Matt Williams a few weeks ago because Bryce wouldn't get back in the box (although he was in the box until Hudson started chirping at Matt Williams). He then lied and said tossing Bryce had nothing to do with not getting back in the box. Marvin Hudson is from Georgia. The Atlanta Braves play in Georgia. Marvin Hudson the Braves fan should not be allowed to umpire Nationals games. Rob Drake also tossed Bryce Harper a few weeks ago in Arizona after he rung Harper up on a check swing and refused to ask for help from the 3rd base umpire. Rob Drake also blew a big call last night and called Harper out at first on a play that Harper actually beat by about a half of a step. The bases should have been loaded with 1 out with the Nats trailing 2-1. Instead, its 2-1 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Rob Drake is from Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Pennsylvania. Rob Drake the Phillies fan should also be banned from umpiring Nationals games. As I said, Matt Williams kept his cool better than I would have. Between his challenge not being overturned and then the call against Bryce at first, I would have been hot. Dirt would be on home plate and all 3 bases would have been coming with me back to the clubhouse.
Clint Robinson then would have been able to go replace first base and get a good feel for where the base is actually located because that would come in handy in the bottom of the 9th. Clint, why are you sleeping at first in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line? Your run matters, but it isn't the main run that matters. That run belonged to Michael Taylor who was on second base and would have scored easily on a Rendon single. Thank you for walking and moving Taylor up to second, but dude, stand on first base if you have to. Don't even take a lead, I don't care. There's no reason you get picked off first by the catcher to end the game. Overall, a frustrating game. Gio turned his night around after the first inning and pitched great, the offense sputtered just like it has in the previous 10 to 15 games, there were a few bad calls, and a bonehead play to end the game.
Oh and by the way, baseball challenges are becoming a joke. Denard Span singled in the bottom of the first inning on Wednesday against Toronto. Toronto challenged and won the challenge. It was a close call, could have gone either way, but there was no disputable evidence to overturn the call. Last night, Danny Espinosa steals second, the ball beats him there by 2 steps, but Addison Russell misses the tag. Espinosa is called out and the Nationals challenge. The call stands, although there was pretty clear evidence that Danny's foot touched second base before a tag was applied. The point here - be consistent. As Scott Allen of The Washington Post pointed out today, the Nats are 3 for 9 on challenges this year, while opponents are 12 for 12. There's something going on there, those numbers should not be that skewed, especially when the rest of the league is around 40% on challenges. If you want to do it like the NFL does where there has to be indisputable evidence to overturn a call, that's fine with me. In that case, Espinosa would have remained out and on Wednesday, Span's single would have stood. However, when I see Span's single overturned and the call against Espinosa at second stand, it kind of makes me lose faith in this whole replay thing.
Friday, June 5, 2015
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Dominated by Three Rookies
That was just an abysmal series in Cincinnati this weekend. Three rookie pitchers for the Reds beat the Nationals this weekend. Michael Lorenzen, who pitched today for the Reds, probably should have given up about 4-5 runs today, instead his final line was 6 1/3 innings pitched, 2 earned runs, 1 (ONE) hit, 6 (SIX) walks, and 4 strikeouts. Yeah the guy walked 6 batters and really should have walked more, but the Nats inability to be patient at the plate allowed him to work into the 7th inning only allowing one hit. What a joke. Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both came up hacking on the first pitch right after Lorenzen had issued a 4 pitch walk to the previous batter. In both situations, runners were on first and second. Isn't it common baseball knowledge that when a guy is having trouble throwing strikes, you don't swing at the first pitch, you make him throw you strikes? Don't help a guy out when he's struggling, especially when you have a chance to score some runs if you're patient.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Stay Hot
There's not much more to say other than stay hot. The Nats are 20-5 in their last 25 games and 27-18 overall. Their latest loss is yet again, another Strasburg start. Matt Williams has managed the bullpen nicely over this 25 game stretch. The hitting is better than we expected at this point, especially still without Werth and Rendon. The bullpen has settled down a bit and the team is looking good.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The Nats Are Hot...Except When Stras Pitches
At the time of my last post, the Nationals were 7 1/2 games behind the Mets and in sole possession of last place in the NL East. Since then, they've gone 12-3 and shaved 5 games off the Mets lead to jump to second place and 2 1/2 games back (if the Mets win tonight, 1 1/2 if they lose). For the first time this season, following an awful 6 game losing streak, the Nats are hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
7-12...and Last Place
It's the end of April, I get that. For those who say April baseball doesn't matter though, you're wrong. Every game counts. The Nationals game on September 12th against Miami means no more than tomorrow's game against Atlanta. A win is a win, they all count the same in the standings whether it's April or September. That's why a 7-12 record through 19 games is a bit alarming. However, I'm not saying the Nationals are in trouble by any means. That's where the fact that it's only April does matter. There are still 143 games left in the season. If this were September 12th and the Nats were 7 1/2 games back of the Mets, then we're in some trouble. The fact of the matter is, the Nationals are 7 1/2 games back of a hot Mets team who has won 12 of 13 and is 14-4 to start the season. The Nationals have struggled through their first 19 games, partially due to injuries, but mostly due to bullpen mismanagement, lack of focus/concentration (poor defense), and not being able to get a timely hit. It's not panic time. It won't be panic time until late June or early July if the Nationals are still hovering around .500. Remember the Brewers last year? They were 21-9 through their first 30 games with a 6 game lead over the Cardinals in early May. They finished in 3rd place at 82-80 and 8 games behind the Cardinals. It's a long season and we only have a small sample size right now. With that being said, there are some things that need to get worked out very soon.
Hitting:
I'm going to specifically use Thursday's game against the Cardinals as a prime example of what us Nats fans have become accustomed to. What is even more frustrating is the fact that this scenario happened twice. In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the fourth, the Nats had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. After a great at bat by Clint Robinson where he fought off some pitches a drew a walk, Yunel Escobar comes up and first pitch swinging, grounds into a double play. The next batter, Jose Lobaton, strikes out. Inning over, no runs. Don't worry, that wasn't all. In the bottom of the 8th after a fielding debacle that gave the Cardinals a 4-1 lead, the Nats came up to bat and got their first two runners on. Let's just think about this for a second, you're the Nationals, you're losing 4-1. The pitcher just walked Bryce Harper on 5 pitches. You have 1st and 2nd, no outs and you want to keep the line moving because you need base runners if you want to get back into this game. Naturally, Ryan Zimmerman comes up first pitch swinging at a ball that was out of the zone and grounds into another double play. Next batter, Clint Robinson, lines out to center field. He hit the ball well and with one out, it may have scored the runner, but the double play ended any chance of scoring that inning.
Let me take you back two innings to the top of the 6th. In a 1-1 game, the Cardinals get a two out single from Jason Heyward, then Matt Holiday gets hit by a pitch. First and second with two outs. Two outs, not zero, but TWO! Matt Adams comes up and singles Heyward in. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball at manufacturing runs. That's why they are consistently in the playoffs and consistently in the World Series conversation. The Nationals don't do that. Most hitters in the Nationals lineup see two on and nobody out and say "Wow, we could really use a three run homer here." Well sure we could, everybody could, but that's not logical. How about you concentrate on making contact, preferably into the outfield so runners can at least tag, maybe even fight a pitch off for a bloop single? Time and time again, the Nationals get guys in scoring position with less than 2 outs and don't score. The Giants and Cardinals don't do that, they find ways to get the runners in and that's how each year they win playoff series.
Bullpen (Mis)Management:
For those of you that I talk to on a daily basis about the Nationals, you would think I don't like Matt Williams at all. That's not entirely true. I do think he knows what he's doing and he preaches the right things to this team and he handles the players the right way. The one area where I think he has no clue what he's doing, is managing a bullpen.
Most managers now a days have an "A" bullpen and a "B" bullpen as former Nationals manager Davey Johnson once put it. The "A" bullpen are your 3-4 best relievers, they're your 7th inning guy, lefty specialist, set-up man, and closer. Your "B" bullpen are the remaining 3-4 guys in the bullpen, it may be your long reliever, it may be a another lefty specialist, it may be a kid you just called up from the minors that you need to eat some innings. The Nationals actually have a very easy bullpen to manage. There are 3 members of the bullpen who have been in the Major Leagues for two seasons. Those 3 happen to be 3 of the Nationals 4 best relievers and they are Matt Thornton, Drew Storen, and Tanner Roark. The fourth is Aaron Barrett, who is just now in his second year. That leaves Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, and Rafael Martin. Your "A" bullpen is Thornton, Storen, Barrett, and Roark (Roark is a tough one though because he's also your long reliever so he can be a "B" bullpen guy as well). There is absolutely no reason that if you're winning (especially by less than 4), tied, or losing by 1 that any of the "B" bullpen guys see the mound. Unless you're in the 12th inning and you're out of pitchers, there's just no reason for it.
In a tie game on Wednesday night against the Cardinals, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen. It cost the Nationals the game. Blake Treinen gave up the eventual winning run in the 8th inning. On Friday, April 10th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen in a 1-0 game. Xavier Cedeno (who has since been traded to the Dodgers) gave up the lead, the Nationals lost 4-1. The following night, Saturday, April 11th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen again with a 2-0 lead. Blake Treinen gave up two runs, the Nationals lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Tuesday April 14th, Matt Williams has a 7-5 lead in Boston, he goes with his "B" bullpen, let's Blake Treinen throw exactly 10 warm up pitches, Treinen gives up the lead and the Nats lose 8-7.
Those are 4 examples of games that the Nationals lost after entering the 7th inning or later with a lead. The Nationals are 7-12, so lets say instead of going 0-4 in those games, Matt Williams uses his head in two of them, goes with his "A" bullpen and the Nats go 2-2. Instead of 7-12, the Nationals are now 9-10. If he used his head in all 4 of those games and went with his "A" bullpen, the Nats could be 11-8. Those losses aren't completely on Williams, there was bad defense, we should have scored more runs in some of them, etc., but with better bullpen management, I guarantee we would have won at least one of those games, most likely two or three of them.
I'm going to lay this out so that nobody can screw it up, here is the formula:
-If you are winning by less than 4, tied, or losing by 1 in the 7th inning, you use Matt Thornton or Tanner Roark in the 7th (depending on matchups), Aaron Barrett in the 8th, and Drew Storen in the 9th.
-If you are winning by 4 runs or more, or you are losing by more than 1 run, I don't care what you do, as long as you don't use any of the 4 relievers named above. It's that simple.
Hilarious Defense:
Even with good pitching though, you need a competent defense behind you. The Nationals don't have that. There were two plays this week that I don't even know if a high school team would make. On Thursday, Mark Reynolds rocked a ball to right center field. On the throw in, Danny Espinosa sailed a ball over Jose Lobaton's head, so in return Aaron Barrett chucked it into center field. He was trying to throw Reynolds out at second, but Reynolds was already on his way to third, so I don't know if his judgment is questionable or if his eyesight needs to be checked. That was just one of two plays that made me cringe. Today, the Nationals were able to pull off a play that made me consider throwing my TV off the balcony. With two outs in the 5th inning of a 1-0 game, the Marlins loaded the bases on an Ichiro Suzuki single. Giancarlo Stanton pulled some questionable base running moves by rounding 3rd too far and running home. The Nats were going to get out of the inning due to a Marlins mistake. Wilson Ramos had other plans though, he decided he was going to challenge Stanton to a foot race back to third instead of throw the ball to Yunel Esobar who was waiting at third to tag Stanton out. Ramos gave the Marlins a second chance and like good teams do, they got a big hit, cleared the bases, and took a 3-1 lead.
Now let's try and win a few series in a row considering the only series the Nats have won all year is against the 7-12 Phillies. The Nats blew it this weekend and got swept by the Marlins, so they have the Braves and Mets on the road before heading back home for another home stand. I'd love to see the Nats go 5-2 or 6-1 in these next 7 games before heading home. Based on the hilariously awful baseball they've been playing though, I'll take 4-3. Actually, they're on a 5 game losing streak, so how about this: just win ONE game. One game where they play fundamentally sound baseball, get timely hits, use the bullpen how it should be used, and get a win. That's all I ask at this point.
Hitting:
I'm going to specifically use Thursday's game against the Cardinals as a prime example of what us Nats fans have become accustomed to. What is even more frustrating is the fact that this scenario happened twice. In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the fourth, the Nats had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. After a great at bat by Clint Robinson where he fought off some pitches a drew a walk, Yunel Escobar comes up and first pitch swinging, grounds into a double play. The next batter, Jose Lobaton, strikes out. Inning over, no runs. Don't worry, that wasn't all. In the bottom of the 8th after a fielding debacle that gave the Cardinals a 4-1 lead, the Nats came up to bat and got their first two runners on. Let's just think about this for a second, you're the Nationals, you're losing 4-1. The pitcher just walked Bryce Harper on 5 pitches. You have 1st and 2nd, no outs and you want to keep the line moving because you need base runners if you want to get back into this game. Naturally, Ryan Zimmerman comes up first pitch swinging at a ball that was out of the zone and grounds into another double play. Next batter, Clint Robinson, lines out to center field. He hit the ball well and with one out, it may have scored the runner, but the double play ended any chance of scoring that inning.
Let me take you back two innings to the top of the 6th. In a 1-1 game, the Cardinals get a two out single from Jason Heyward, then Matt Holiday gets hit by a pitch. First and second with two outs. Two outs, not zero, but TWO! Matt Adams comes up and singles Heyward in. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball at manufacturing runs. That's why they are consistently in the playoffs and consistently in the World Series conversation. The Nationals don't do that. Most hitters in the Nationals lineup see two on and nobody out and say "Wow, we could really use a three run homer here." Well sure we could, everybody could, but that's not logical. How about you concentrate on making contact, preferably into the outfield so runners can at least tag, maybe even fight a pitch off for a bloop single? Time and time again, the Nationals get guys in scoring position with less than 2 outs and don't score. The Giants and Cardinals don't do that, they find ways to get the runners in and that's how each year they win playoff series.
Bullpen (Mis)Management:
For those of you that I talk to on a daily basis about the Nationals, you would think I don't like Matt Williams at all. That's not entirely true. I do think he knows what he's doing and he preaches the right things to this team and he handles the players the right way. The one area where I think he has no clue what he's doing, is managing a bullpen.
Most managers now a days have an "A" bullpen and a "B" bullpen as former Nationals manager Davey Johnson once put it. The "A" bullpen are your 3-4 best relievers, they're your 7th inning guy, lefty specialist, set-up man, and closer. Your "B" bullpen are the remaining 3-4 guys in the bullpen, it may be your long reliever, it may be a another lefty specialist, it may be a kid you just called up from the minors that you need to eat some innings. The Nationals actually have a very easy bullpen to manage. There are 3 members of the bullpen who have been in the Major Leagues for two seasons. Those 3 happen to be 3 of the Nationals 4 best relievers and they are Matt Thornton, Drew Storen, and Tanner Roark. The fourth is Aaron Barrett, who is just now in his second year. That leaves Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, and Rafael Martin. Your "A" bullpen is Thornton, Storen, Barrett, and Roark (Roark is a tough one though because he's also your long reliever so he can be a "B" bullpen guy as well). There is absolutely no reason that if you're winning (especially by less than 4), tied, or losing by 1 that any of the "B" bullpen guys see the mound. Unless you're in the 12th inning and you're out of pitchers, there's just no reason for it.
In a tie game on Wednesday night against the Cardinals, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen. It cost the Nationals the game. Blake Treinen gave up the eventual winning run in the 8th inning. On Friday, April 10th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen in a 1-0 game. Xavier Cedeno (who has since been traded to the Dodgers) gave up the lead, the Nationals lost 4-1. The following night, Saturday, April 11th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen again with a 2-0 lead. Blake Treinen gave up two runs, the Nationals lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Tuesday April 14th, Matt Williams has a 7-5 lead in Boston, he goes with his "B" bullpen, let's Blake Treinen throw exactly 10 warm up pitches, Treinen gives up the lead and the Nats lose 8-7.
Those are 4 examples of games that the Nationals lost after entering the 7th inning or later with a lead. The Nationals are 7-12, so lets say instead of going 0-4 in those games, Matt Williams uses his head in two of them, goes with his "A" bullpen and the Nats go 2-2. Instead of 7-12, the Nationals are now 9-10. If he used his head in all 4 of those games and went with his "A" bullpen, the Nats could be 11-8. Those losses aren't completely on Williams, there was bad defense, we should have scored more runs in some of them, etc., but with better bullpen management, I guarantee we would have won at least one of those games, most likely two or three of them.
I'm going to lay this out so that nobody can screw it up, here is the formula:
-If you are winning by less than 4, tied, or losing by 1 in the 7th inning, you use Matt Thornton or Tanner Roark in the 7th (depending on matchups), Aaron Barrett in the 8th, and Drew Storen in the 9th.
-If you are winning by 4 runs or more, or you are losing by more than 1 run, I don't care what you do, as long as you don't use any of the 4 relievers named above. It's that simple.
Hilarious Defense:
Even with good pitching though, you need a competent defense behind you. The Nationals don't have that. There were two plays this week that I don't even know if a high school team would make. On Thursday, Mark Reynolds rocked a ball to right center field. On the throw in, Danny Espinosa sailed a ball over Jose Lobaton's head, so in return Aaron Barrett chucked it into center field. He was trying to throw Reynolds out at second, but Reynolds was already on his way to third, so I don't know if his judgment is questionable or if his eyesight needs to be checked. That was just one of two plays that made me cringe. Today, the Nationals were able to pull off a play that made me consider throwing my TV off the balcony. With two outs in the 5th inning of a 1-0 game, the Marlins loaded the bases on an Ichiro Suzuki single. Giancarlo Stanton pulled some questionable base running moves by rounding 3rd too far and running home. The Nats were going to get out of the inning due to a Marlins mistake. Wilson Ramos had other plans though, he decided he was going to challenge Stanton to a foot race back to third instead of throw the ball to Yunel Esobar who was waiting at third to tag Stanton out. Ramos gave the Marlins a second chance and like good teams do, they got a big hit, cleared the bases, and took a 3-1 lead.
Now let's try and win a few series in a row considering the only series the Nats have won all year is against the 7-12 Phillies. The Nats blew it this weekend and got swept by the Marlins, so they have the Braves and Mets on the road before heading back home for another home stand. I'd love to see the Nats go 5-2 or 6-1 in these next 7 games before heading home. Based on the hilariously awful baseball they've been playing though, I'll take 4-3. Actually, they're on a 5 game losing streak, so how about this: just win ONE game. One game where they play fundamentally sound baseball, get timely hits, use the bullpen how it should be used, and get a win. That's all I ask at this point.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Picking Up Right Where They Left Off
Well, this isn't exactly how any of us saw the first two series of the season playing out. The first five games have been full of costly errors, lousy hitting, average relief pitching, excellent starting pitching, and a few questionable decisions. The hitting has been by far the biggest issue through the first give game into the season. At points its almost been unwatchable. It's like I'm re-watching the Nationals play the Giants in the playoffs last year. Bottom line, you can't win baseball games 1-0 or 2-1 every night, and that's what the Nationals are trying to do right now.
I understand that the lineup is missing its 1 through 3 hitters, but the guys who are in the lineup because of injuries are still expected to be Major League hitters. None of us have seen that so far. Michael Taylor has been the best of the bunch and he's a rookie so he is the player I expected the least production out of. Don't get me wrong, we've seen Taylor struggle, (he's struck out 7 times in just 21 at bats) but he's also shown flashes of how good he can be. Second base has been a black hole where Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa have combined to go 3 for 18 to start the season. One of those hits came from Espinosa who was curiously hitting left handed last night, which is odd because everybody was under the assumption that he was strictly hitting right handed now. Regardless, 3 for 18 isn't going to cut it and neither is the 2 for 16 that we've seen out of the left fielders. The major culprit there is Tyler Moore, who I'm rooting for, but 0 for 10 is abysmal.
At a time where we needed our star players to show up, they've gone missing, just like last October. Ryan Zimmerman, although he's played a good first base so far, is 2 for 19 from the clean up spot. Just as bad, Ian Desmond is 3 for 18. The difference between the two is Zimmerman is playing solid defense, Desmond is making costly error after costly error. If it weren't for bad defense, the Nationals would most likely have at least one, maybe two more wins under their belt. The poor starting rotation through their first time through the rotation has a 1.99 ERA. They're 1-3 on the year.
Quick side rant regarding the game on Friday against the Phillies: In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the 7th inning, Gio was still pitching. I'm fine with that, but Gio proceeded to walk two and then hit a batter, so he left with the bases loaded and one out. First of all, we all know that Gio has some control issues. He pitched a gem, but when you send him back out there for the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, you need one or two of your best relievers warming up in the pen to come in if Gio runs into trouble. Aaron Barrett and Matt Thornton should have been warming up. Instead, Matt Williams let Gio pitch into trouble and he's left in one batter too late (possibly two depending on how short of a string you want to have). As soon as Gio walked that second batter though, he was done. He never should have even been in the game to hit Andres Blanco and load the bases. Second problem, it's still a 1-0 game. We hadn't given up the lead yet and double play gets you out of the inning with a 1-0 lead. So who comes in? Xavier Cedeno. What? If you needed a lefty in that situation don't you think Thornton is your guy? He's your best left handed reliever. You also could have gone with Barrett who is a ground ball and strike out pitcher. Instead, Cedeno comes in, promptly gives up a two run single and then hits Ben Revere. What an outing. Another wasted quality start and Gio is charged with 3 runs that probably should have never happened.
Dan Kolko pointed out last night that scoring throughout the league has been down through the first five games of the year, down almost a full run from last year. That's great and all, but on average teams were still scoring nearly 4 runs per game this year. The Nationals have scored 9 runs TOTAL, which is lowest in the Major Leagues and they're hitting .183 as a team, again, lowest in the Majors. Those stat lines are eerily similar to those of last October when the Nats hit .164 and scored 9 runs in 4 games. It's a very small sample size, so we can't get too worked up about it, but at the same time, the Nationals schedule was very favorable early in the season. The Nationals have proceeded to drop the first two series because they can't score and now are staring at a sweep to the projected last place and possibly worst team in baseball, the Phillies.
Going into Boston at 1-5 or 2-4 isn't how we wanted this to start, but its the position we're in now. Nothing you can do about it. We have to start hitting though or this could get really ugly. As I said when we signed Scherzer, it doesn't matter how great your starting pitching is unless you can score some runs. Our starting pitching has been as good as advertised, but I don't care if we have 5 guys that are as good as Clayton Kershaw in our rotation, we aren't going to win games 1-0 every day. Werth is expected back sometime this week, which will be a huge boost. The schedule gets tougher though with 6 of the next 10 against the Red Sox and then the Cardinals. Now is as good a time as any to start hitting and working counts. Let's get a win today and then worry about trying to win a series in Boston.
I understand that the lineup is missing its 1 through 3 hitters, but the guys who are in the lineup because of injuries are still expected to be Major League hitters. None of us have seen that so far. Michael Taylor has been the best of the bunch and he's a rookie so he is the player I expected the least production out of. Don't get me wrong, we've seen Taylor struggle, (he's struck out 7 times in just 21 at bats) but he's also shown flashes of how good he can be. Second base has been a black hole where Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa have combined to go 3 for 18 to start the season. One of those hits came from Espinosa who was curiously hitting left handed last night, which is odd because everybody was under the assumption that he was strictly hitting right handed now. Regardless, 3 for 18 isn't going to cut it and neither is the 2 for 16 that we've seen out of the left fielders. The major culprit there is Tyler Moore, who I'm rooting for, but 0 for 10 is abysmal.
At a time where we needed our star players to show up, they've gone missing, just like last October. Ryan Zimmerman, although he's played a good first base so far, is 2 for 19 from the clean up spot. Just as bad, Ian Desmond is 3 for 18. The difference between the two is Zimmerman is playing solid defense, Desmond is making costly error after costly error. If it weren't for bad defense, the Nationals would most likely have at least one, maybe two more wins under their belt. The poor starting rotation through their first time through the rotation has a 1.99 ERA. They're 1-3 on the year.
Quick side rant regarding the game on Friday against the Phillies: In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the 7th inning, Gio was still pitching. I'm fine with that, but Gio proceeded to walk two and then hit a batter, so he left with the bases loaded and one out. First of all, we all know that Gio has some control issues. He pitched a gem, but when you send him back out there for the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, you need one or two of your best relievers warming up in the pen to come in if Gio runs into trouble. Aaron Barrett and Matt Thornton should have been warming up. Instead, Matt Williams let Gio pitch into trouble and he's left in one batter too late (possibly two depending on how short of a string you want to have). As soon as Gio walked that second batter though, he was done. He never should have even been in the game to hit Andres Blanco and load the bases. Second problem, it's still a 1-0 game. We hadn't given up the lead yet and double play gets you out of the inning with a 1-0 lead. So who comes in? Xavier Cedeno. What? If you needed a lefty in that situation don't you think Thornton is your guy? He's your best left handed reliever. You also could have gone with Barrett who is a ground ball and strike out pitcher. Instead, Cedeno comes in, promptly gives up a two run single and then hits Ben Revere. What an outing. Another wasted quality start and Gio is charged with 3 runs that probably should have never happened.
Dan Kolko pointed out last night that scoring throughout the league has been down through the first five games of the year, down almost a full run from last year. That's great and all, but on average teams were still scoring nearly 4 runs per game this year. The Nationals have scored 9 runs TOTAL, which is lowest in the Major Leagues and they're hitting .183 as a team, again, lowest in the Majors. Those stat lines are eerily similar to those of last October when the Nats hit .164 and scored 9 runs in 4 games. It's a very small sample size, so we can't get too worked up about it, but at the same time, the Nationals schedule was very favorable early in the season. The Nationals have proceeded to drop the first two series because they can't score and now are staring at a sweep to the projected last place and possibly worst team in baseball, the Phillies.
Going into Boston at 1-5 or 2-4 isn't how we wanted this to start, but its the position we're in now. Nothing you can do about it. We have to start hitting though or this could get really ugly. As I said when we signed Scherzer, it doesn't matter how great your starting pitching is unless you can score some runs. Our starting pitching has been as good as advertised, but I don't care if we have 5 guys that are as good as Clayton Kershaw in our rotation, we aren't going to win games 1-0 every day. Werth is expected back sometime this week, which will be a huge boost. The schedule gets tougher though with 6 of the next 10 against the Red Sox and then the Cardinals. Now is as good a time as any to start hitting and working counts. Let's get a win today and then worry about trying to win a series in Boston.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Disabled List and Final Roster
We're five days away from Opening Day now and we already know that we will be without two of our starting three outfielders and our starting third baseman to open the season. Not to mention that Nate McLouth is still banged up and Casey Janssen may head to the disabled list as well. Not exactly how we wanted to start the year, but injuries happen and there's nothing you can do about it. I'd much rather be without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth in April than be without them in October for the playoffs. Knowing that the Nationals will be without Span, Werth, and Rendon to open the season, here is how the final roster may play out.
Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.
Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.
Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker
Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark
Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.
Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.
Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker
Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark
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