For those looking for my thoughts on last night's game or how I think the Nationals will do with Werth and Zimmerman back, you'll have to wait until my next post. This post will strictly focus on a move that Mike Rizzo made yesterday that has the potential to throw a wrench into this whole season. I didn't want to write anything last night because I wanted to see if my initial reaction to the trade would change. It didn't. As I write this, I'm still confused, slightly mad, and honestly flabbergasted. Yesterday, the Nationals traded AA pitcher Nick Pivetta, their 10th best prospect, for Phillies' closer, Jonathan Papelbon. There is no doubt that the Nationals bullpen is now deeper, but to say it's better is completely dependent on how Drew Storen takes being the new set up man. There are many different elements that go into why this move doesn't make sense, why it's confusing, and why it could turn out to be one of Rizzo's worst moves as the General Manager of the Nationals.
The first thing makes me mad about this deal is that Mike Rizzo has essentially told Drew Storen "Thanks for the great first half, you have 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA, but I don't trust you, so I'm demoting you." What can this guy do to keep his job? He blows a save in the 2012 NLDS and the Nationals go out and sign Rafael Soriano, which was a disaster. He blows a save in the 2014 NLDS and Rizzo says Storen is still the closer, then mid way through a career year, he brings in what could possibly be Rafael Soriano 2.0. Nothing against Jonathan Papelbon's stats, he's 17 for 17 in saves this year with a 1.59 ERA (yes, actually lower than Storen's). With that being said, he's a 34 year old reliever with diminishing velocity and he's under contract for another year for $11 million. Not to mention, $3 million of that $11 million is deferred. If Mike Rizzo doesn't stop deferring money on these contracts, then by 2020, he's going to have a payroll of $160 million, $80 million of which are players who are either retired or not on the team anymore, but I digress. As Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post pointed out, if the Nats had acquired Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, it still would have been a tough pill for Storen to swallow, but he would have accepted the demotion. Being demoted for Papelbon though isn't going to sit well. The bottom line here is you're left with a pissed off Drew Storen and an aging closer who you have to pay next year.
The second element to this is Mike Rizzo is now costing Drew Storen big time money. The salary difference between set-up guys and closers is huge. Storen doesn't become a free agent until after the 2016 season, so if the Nationals hang on to him, they're essentially reducing his value as much as they can so that he's cheaper in arbitration. When Storen goes into his final arbitration hearing this winter, he'll probably leave earning $7-8 million instead of $11-12 million that he could have been earning had he finished the year closing for the Nationals. That means he stands to lose $4-5 million because he won't be able to add to his save total for the rest of the year.
If I were Drew, I would have gone into Mike Rizzo's office yesterday right after the trade was completed and asked to be traded. This isn't about Storen being selfish, this is about Rizzo not trusting Storen. I don't ever want to work for an employer or boss that doesn't trust me, so why should Storen? This team needs Storen, so it's on Rizzo to smooth things over. Maybe he tells Storen that he's going for it all this year and just ride it out this year and then in the offseason he will trade either Storen or Papelbon. Who knows, but if Storen isn't on board, then the bullpen just got worse, not better.
Lastly, we have the diva factor. There is no arguing with how good and reliable Jonathan Papelbon has been over his career. There are some question marks about Jonathan Papelbon the person. There's no way around the fact that Papelbon has had his issues with the fans and the media. Then there's Papelbon in the clubhouse, which I can honestly say I don't know much about. Based on the fact that Papelbon would only waive his no-trade clause if he becomes the closer though, he sounds like a me-first kind of guy. Hey "Paps", you're getting traded to a contender and they've agreed to pick up your option for next year so how about you shut your mouth and pitch when you're asked to pitch. Mike Rizzo preaches all the time about having good guys in the clubhouse and wanting to build a great clubhouse. From everything I've read, the Nationals have a good clubhouse, so why would you bring a guy like this into it? You've automatically made Drew Storen mad and this move is going to rub a few other guys wrong right off the bat.
Good luck with this one Rizzo, you're going to need it. I wrote two days ago about the Mets making a desperation move to acquire Tyler Clippard, but this move looks just as desperate. The Phillies had been having trouble trying to trade Papelbon since last year. Not only do you give up a top 10 prospect for him, but you guarantee his contract for next year and you make your current closer upset. Again, this has nothing to do with Papelbon the player. He's shown he's reliable. This has to do with Papelbon the person and what you've just done to Drew Storen and the rest of the clubhouse. You could have given up a lesser prospect to acquire Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, plugged him into the set up role (which is his current job where he holds a 2.27 ERA), and avoided any drama. The only way this looks like a good move at the end of the season is if it brings a World Series back to Washington. Any other result is a waste of a prospect and a waste of $11 million next year that could have been used towards trying to resign Jordan Zimmermann.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Monday, July 27, 2015
Trade Deadline Edition
The Nationals are now 4-6 coming out of the All-Star break with a 2 game lead over the New York Mets. The hope is the Nats hover around where they are now until they can get fully healthy. Once they get healthy, hopefully in mid-August, they should be able to blow the Mets away and put the division away by around September 15th-20th. That's fully dependent on if everyone gets and stays healthy though. Not having Anthony Rendon or Denard Span in a playoff series would pretty much end the Nationals season. Those two guys mean that much to the lineup, especially when you're facing aces night in and night out. There's one other person that could end the Nationals season and he's somebody you won't even see on the field.
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
Friday, June 19, 2015
The Two I's - Inconsistent and Injured
After reeling off 21 wins in 27 games in May, the Nats have gone cold losing 14 of their past 20 games. Sure, over that 47 game span the Nats are 27-20, which is still pretty darn good. They obviously came back to life though after that 21-6 stretch in May. Even worse, the lineup is banged up and the bats are extremely inconsistent. They scored 1 run Monday, followed by a 16 run outburst on Tuesday, got shut out Wednesday, then scored 3 last night (2 were in the first inning and there were a lot of missed opportunities).
On a positive note, last night Doug Fister made his first start for the club since May 14th and Stephen Strasburg may not be too far behind him. Fister was charged with 5 runs, but he really deserved better. He pitched great through 5 innings, but just ran out of gas in the 6th. Some may say how is going 5 1/3 innings giving up 5 runs a good outing? He was sharp through 5 full innings and just got knocked around in the 6th. Once he builds up some stamina, we'll have the Doug Fister that we're used to where he goes 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Strasburg had a nice rehab outing for Harrisburg on Wednesday going 5 innings, striking out 6, walking none, and allowing 2 runs (only 1 earned). Although Tanner Roark has pitched fantastic since rejoining the rotation, the Nats miss him badly in the bullpen. Before his move to the rotation, Roark was pitching in the 7th and 8th inning and even had a save. The 7th and 8th innings for the Nationals has been a complete disaster this year. Being able to bring in Roark in the 8th inning of a 3-2 game will be a lot easier for Nationals fans to watch than seeing Aaron Barrett or Blake Treinen struggle through the inning. Nothing against Barrett or Treinen, I think both have great stuff, but Roark is flat out the better pitcher right now.
As far as the hitting and scoring runs, the Nationals are going to be streaky. That's how it is and how it always has been. This team can get hot for 2 weeks or so and score 5-6 runs per game. In those 2 weeks, they're probably going to go 8-3 or 9-2. On the flip side, they can also get ice cold and score 1-2 runs per game for 2 weeks or so. In that stretch they'll struggle to play .500 baseball. You just hope for one main thing when you're a streaky hitting ball club. You hope that when you aren't hitting, you can weather the storm (and if you're the Nats, that you get hot at the beginning of October). Not only does that put more pressure on the pitching staff to give you quality start after quality start, but it also puts pressure on the hitters to be able to play small ball. The Nationals aren't built like the Cardinals, or the Royals, or the Giants, which to be honest is a shame. It's all in the approach of some of the players though. Matt Williams has stressed since day one on the job the significance of being able to "get em on, get em over, get em in" as the saying goes. It's not because of lack of effort, it's just the type of hitters this team has. When the Nationals are fully healthy, 6 of the 8 position players have potential to hit 20+ home runs a year (the exceptions being Denard Span and Yunel Escobar). The two guys who won't hit 20 homers, are guys who can manufacture runs. The Giants, Cardinals, and Royals are all in the bottom 10 in the Majors in home runs hit, but two of the three are in first place in their division right now. The third team won the World Series last year and eliminated the Nats in the first round. These three teams can manufacture a run, they don't wait until the 7th inning when they're losing 3-1 and then come up and say well here goes nothing, I better swing for the fences. We don't know what the Nats lineup can do when they're fully healthy, but it's my hope that they can find a nice mixture between swinging for the fences and manufacturing runs. A single, followed by a bunt, followed by a single isn't flashy, but it puts a run on the board and counts the exact same as a solo home run.
It's been a rough two weeks, but the bottom line is the Nats are 34-33 and they're just 1 1/2 games out of first place. The Nats are just 1 game behind their pace last year which they won 96 games. It's hard to tell you not to panic right now, especially after seeing Bryce go down last night. They're struggling and thoughts of 2013 are running through all of our minds, but this team is too talented to not win the NL East. We saw what kind of team the Nats could be in May when they were hot. It would be nice to see some consistency though. The hot Pirates who have won 21 of their last 26 come in to town for the weekend. Without Bryce this is going to be a tough series to win, but now is as good a time as ever to see what kind of guts this team has. You have a rookie on the mound tonight, your ace tomorrow, and then Gio, who has struggled with his command all year, but when he's on, he can pitch with anyone on the Pirates, pitching on Sunday. Maybe you even switch the lineup up a bit. Call me crazy, but maybe you move Ian Desmond up to the 2nd spot and move everyone else down a spot. Ian has hit .290 this year when he's hitting second in the lineup, any other spot in the lineup he's hitting no higher than .167. He's struggling right now, but protection in the lineup can go a long way and hitting in between Denard Span and Anthony Rendon will allow him to see way better pitches than if he's hitting in between Danny Espinosa and Michael Taylor. I'm no manager, but if I had the lineup card tonight it would be 1) Span, 2) Desmond, 3) Rendon, 4) Escobar, 5) Robinson, 6) Ramos, 7) Espinosa, 8) Taylor, 9) Ross. Obviously that's assuming Bryce is out, if he's not I'd slide him in at the cleanup spot and move Escobar down to 5. We'll see what happens, just please, please don't get swept this weekend. I speak on behalf of all Nats fans when I say we won't be able to handle looking at the standings and seeing 34-36 on Monday. If that's the case there will be thoughts of 2013 haunting us every night.
On a positive note, last night Doug Fister made his first start for the club since May 14th and Stephen Strasburg may not be too far behind him. Fister was charged with 5 runs, but he really deserved better. He pitched great through 5 innings, but just ran out of gas in the 6th. Some may say how is going 5 1/3 innings giving up 5 runs a good outing? He was sharp through 5 full innings and just got knocked around in the 6th. Once he builds up some stamina, we'll have the Doug Fister that we're used to where he goes 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Strasburg had a nice rehab outing for Harrisburg on Wednesday going 5 innings, striking out 6, walking none, and allowing 2 runs (only 1 earned). Although Tanner Roark has pitched fantastic since rejoining the rotation, the Nats miss him badly in the bullpen. Before his move to the rotation, Roark was pitching in the 7th and 8th inning and even had a save. The 7th and 8th innings for the Nationals has been a complete disaster this year. Being able to bring in Roark in the 8th inning of a 3-2 game will be a lot easier for Nationals fans to watch than seeing Aaron Barrett or Blake Treinen struggle through the inning. Nothing against Barrett or Treinen, I think both have great stuff, but Roark is flat out the better pitcher right now.
As far as the hitting and scoring runs, the Nationals are going to be streaky. That's how it is and how it always has been. This team can get hot for 2 weeks or so and score 5-6 runs per game. In those 2 weeks, they're probably going to go 8-3 or 9-2. On the flip side, they can also get ice cold and score 1-2 runs per game for 2 weeks or so. In that stretch they'll struggle to play .500 baseball. You just hope for one main thing when you're a streaky hitting ball club. You hope that when you aren't hitting, you can weather the storm (and if you're the Nats, that you get hot at the beginning of October). Not only does that put more pressure on the pitching staff to give you quality start after quality start, but it also puts pressure on the hitters to be able to play small ball. The Nationals aren't built like the Cardinals, or the Royals, or the Giants, which to be honest is a shame. It's all in the approach of some of the players though. Matt Williams has stressed since day one on the job the significance of being able to "get em on, get em over, get em in" as the saying goes. It's not because of lack of effort, it's just the type of hitters this team has. When the Nationals are fully healthy, 6 of the 8 position players have potential to hit 20+ home runs a year (the exceptions being Denard Span and Yunel Escobar). The two guys who won't hit 20 homers, are guys who can manufacture runs. The Giants, Cardinals, and Royals are all in the bottom 10 in the Majors in home runs hit, but two of the three are in first place in their division right now. The third team won the World Series last year and eliminated the Nats in the first round. These three teams can manufacture a run, they don't wait until the 7th inning when they're losing 3-1 and then come up and say well here goes nothing, I better swing for the fences. We don't know what the Nats lineup can do when they're fully healthy, but it's my hope that they can find a nice mixture between swinging for the fences and manufacturing runs. A single, followed by a bunt, followed by a single isn't flashy, but it puts a run on the board and counts the exact same as a solo home run.
It's been a rough two weeks, but the bottom line is the Nats are 34-33 and they're just 1 1/2 games out of first place. The Nats are just 1 game behind their pace last year which they won 96 games. It's hard to tell you not to panic right now, especially after seeing Bryce go down last night. They're struggling and thoughts of 2013 are running through all of our minds, but this team is too talented to not win the NL East. We saw what kind of team the Nats could be in May when they were hot. It would be nice to see some consistency though. The hot Pirates who have won 21 of their last 26 come in to town for the weekend. Without Bryce this is going to be a tough series to win, but now is as good a time as ever to see what kind of guts this team has. You have a rookie on the mound tonight, your ace tomorrow, and then Gio, who has struggled with his command all year, but when he's on, he can pitch with anyone on the Pirates, pitching on Sunday. Maybe you even switch the lineup up a bit. Call me crazy, but maybe you move Ian Desmond up to the 2nd spot and move everyone else down a spot. Ian has hit .290 this year when he's hitting second in the lineup, any other spot in the lineup he's hitting no higher than .167. He's struggling right now, but protection in the lineup can go a long way and hitting in between Denard Span and Anthony Rendon will allow him to see way better pitches than if he's hitting in between Danny Espinosa and Michael Taylor. I'm no manager, but if I had the lineup card tonight it would be 1) Span, 2) Desmond, 3) Rendon, 4) Escobar, 5) Robinson, 6) Ramos, 7) Espinosa, 8) Taylor, 9) Ross. Obviously that's assuming Bryce is out, if he's not I'd slide him in at the cleanup spot and move Escobar down to 5. We'll see what happens, just please, please don't get swept this weekend. I speak on behalf of all Nats fans when I say we won't be able to handle looking at the standings and seeing 34-36 on Monday. If that's the case there will be thoughts of 2013 haunting us every night.
Friday, June 5, 2015
They're Ice Cold
Just like that, the Nats go from being on fire, to being ice cold, going 1-6 in their last 7 games. They've scored just 15 runs in those 7 games, an average of 2.14 runs per game. It doesn't matter how good your pitching staff is, you aren't going to win games when you're scoring such a small amount of runs. They have a tough schedule ahead as 12 of their next 16 games are against teams with a winning record, so they're going to have to start scoring soon. Especially since 40% of your starting rotation is currently on the DL. Sure Tanner Roark is filling in fantastically for Doug Fister, but Stephen Strasburg's spot in the rotation remains a black hole.
Anthony Rendon is back which is going to help a ton (he's already contributing as he went 2/4 in his season debut last night). The lineup may need some tweaking to spark some offense though. Ryan Zimmerman is just 3 for his last 33 which has dropped his batting average down to .217. This is a tough lineup to switch around though. You could switch Escobar and Rendon in the lineup, which would provide you with more power in the 3 spot and Rendon would still see good pitches with Bryce hitting behind him. The 5-6-7 spots are completely unproductive right now though as all 3 hitters are cold at the same time. You could move Ramos up to 5, drop Zimmerman to 6, and drop Desmond to 7. I don't know if that would do much for you though because like I said, none of those hitters are seeing the ball well right now. In two weeks, all 3 will probably be hot and this will be a non issue, but until then, this team has to figure out creative ways of scoring runs.
Now to the bigger issue. I have no clue how Matt Williams didn't get tossed last night, he kept his cool way better than I would have been able to do. I'm one of those people who usually laughs and makes fun of the fans who blame the umpire or referee for losing a game, but in this case, I'm going to be one of those fans. Marvin Hudson and Rob Drake have no business umpiring Nats games. Marvin Hudson is the umpire who tossed Bryce and Matt Williams a few weeks ago because Bryce wouldn't get back in the box (although he was in the box until Hudson started chirping at Matt Williams). He then lied and said tossing Bryce had nothing to do with not getting back in the box. Marvin Hudson is from Georgia. The Atlanta Braves play in Georgia. Marvin Hudson the Braves fan should not be allowed to umpire Nationals games. Rob Drake also tossed Bryce Harper a few weeks ago in Arizona after he rung Harper up on a check swing and refused to ask for help from the 3rd base umpire. Rob Drake also blew a big call last night and called Harper out at first on a play that Harper actually beat by about a half of a step. The bases should have been loaded with 1 out with the Nats trailing 2-1. Instead, its 2-1 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Rob Drake is from Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Pennsylvania. Rob Drake the Phillies fan should also be banned from umpiring Nationals games. As I said, Matt Williams kept his cool better than I would have. Between his challenge not being overturned and then the call against Bryce at first, I would have been hot. Dirt would be on home plate and all 3 bases would have been coming with me back to the clubhouse.
Clint Robinson then would have been able to go replace first base and get a good feel for where the base is actually located because that would come in handy in the bottom of the 9th. Clint, why are you sleeping at first in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line? Your run matters, but it isn't the main run that matters. That run belonged to Michael Taylor who was on second base and would have scored easily on a Rendon single. Thank you for walking and moving Taylor up to second, but dude, stand on first base if you have to. Don't even take a lead, I don't care. There's no reason you get picked off first by the catcher to end the game. Overall, a frustrating game. Gio turned his night around after the first inning and pitched great, the offense sputtered just like it has in the previous 10 to 15 games, there were a few bad calls, and a bonehead play to end the game.
Oh and by the way, baseball challenges are becoming a joke. Denard Span singled in the bottom of the first inning on Wednesday against Toronto. Toronto challenged and won the challenge. It was a close call, could have gone either way, but there was no disputable evidence to overturn the call. Last night, Danny Espinosa steals second, the ball beats him there by 2 steps, but Addison Russell misses the tag. Espinosa is called out and the Nationals challenge. The call stands, although there was pretty clear evidence that Danny's foot touched second base before a tag was applied. The point here - be consistent. As Scott Allen of The Washington Post pointed out today, the Nats are 3 for 9 on challenges this year, while opponents are 12 for 12. There's something going on there, those numbers should not be that skewed, especially when the rest of the league is around 40% on challenges. If you want to do it like the NFL does where there has to be indisputable evidence to overturn a call, that's fine with me. In that case, Espinosa would have remained out and on Wednesday, Span's single would have stood. However, when I see Span's single overturned and the call against Espinosa at second stand, it kind of makes me lose faith in this whole replay thing.
Anthony Rendon is back which is going to help a ton (he's already contributing as he went 2/4 in his season debut last night). The lineup may need some tweaking to spark some offense though. Ryan Zimmerman is just 3 for his last 33 which has dropped his batting average down to .217. This is a tough lineup to switch around though. You could switch Escobar and Rendon in the lineup, which would provide you with more power in the 3 spot and Rendon would still see good pitches with Bryce hitting behind him. The 5-6-7 spots are completely unproductive right now though as all 3 hitters are cold at the same time. You could move Ramos up to 5, drop Zimmerman to 6, and drop Desmond to 7. I don't know if that would do much for you though because like I said, none of those hitters are seeing the ball well right now. In two weeks, all 3 will probably be hot and this will be a non issue, but until then, this team has to figure out creative ways of scoring runs.
Now to the bigger issue. I have no clue how Matt Williams didn't get tossed last night, he kept his cool way better than I would have been able to do. I'm one of those people who usually laughs and makes fun of the fans who blame the umpire or referee for losing a game, but in this case, I'm going to be one of those fans. Marvin Hudson and Rob Drake have no business umpiring Nats games. Marvin Hudson is the umpire who tossed Bryce and Matt Williams a few weeks ago because Bryce wouldn't get back in the box (although he was in the box until Hudson started chirping at Matt Williams). He then lied and said tossing Bryce had nothing to do with not getting back in the box. Marvin Hudson is from Georgia. The Atlanta Braves play in Georgia. Marvin Hudson the Braves fan should not be allowed to umpire Nationals games. Rob Drake also tossed Bryce Harper a few weeks ago in Arizona after he rung Harper up on a check swing and refused to ask for help from the 3rd base umpire. Rob Drake also blew a big call last night and called Harper out at first on a play that Harper actually beat by about a half of a step. The bases should have been loaded with 1 out with the Nats trailing 2-1. Instead, its 2-1 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Rob Drake is from Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Pennsylvania. Rob Drake the Phillies fan should also be banned from umpiring Nationals games. As I said, Matt Williams kept his cool better than I would have. Between his challenge not being overturned and then the call against Bryce at first, I would have been hot. Dirt would be on home plate and all 3 bases would have been coming with me back to the clubhouse.
Clint Robinson then would have been able to go replace first base and get a good feel for where the base is actually located because that would come in handy in the bottom of the 9th. Clint, why are you sleeping at first in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line? Your run matters, but it isn't the main run that matters. That run belonged to Michael Taylor who was on second base and would have scored easily on a Rendon single. Thank you for walking and moving Taylor up to second, but dude, stand on first base if you have to. Don't even take a lead, I don't care. There's no reason you get picked off first by the catcher to end the game. Overall, a frustrating game. Gio turned his night around after the first inning and pitched great, the offense sputtered just like it has in the previous 10 to 15 games, there were a few bad calls, and a bonehead play to end the game.
Oh and by the way, baseball challenges are becoming a joke. Denard Span singled in the bottom of the first inning on Wednesday against Toronto. Toronto challenged and won the challenge. It was a close call, could have gone either way, but there was no disputable evidence to overturn the call. Last night, Danny Espinosa steals second, the ball beats him there by 2 steps, but Addison Russell misses the tag. Espinosa is called out and the Nationals challenge. The call stands, although there was pretty clear evidence that Danny's foot touched second base before a tag was applied. The point here - be consistent. As Scott Allen of The Washington Post pointed out today, the Nats are 3 for 9 on challenges this year, while opponents are 12 for 12. There's something going on there, those numbers should not be that skewed, especially when the rest of the league is around 40% on challenges. If you want to do it like the NFL does where there has to be indisputable evidence to overturn a call, that's fine with me. In that case, Espinosa would have remained out and on Wednesday, Span's single would have stood. However, when I see Span's single overturned and the call against Espinosa at second stand, it kind of makes me lose faith in this whole replay thing.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Dominated by Three Rookies
That was just an abysmal series in Cincinnati this weekend. Three rookie pitchers for the Reds beat the Nationals this weekend. Michael Lorenzen, who pitched today for the Reds, probably should have given up about 4-5 runs today, instead his final line was 6 1/3 innings pitched, 2 earned runs, 1 (ONE) hit, 6 (SIX) walks, and 4 strikeouts. Yeah the guy walked 6 batters and really should have walked more, but the Nats inability to be patient at the plate allowed him to work into the 7th inning only allowing one hit. What a joke. Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both came up hacking on the first pitch right after Lorenzen had issued a 4 pitch walk to the previous batter. In both situations, runners were on first and second. Isn't it common baseball knowledge that when a guy is having trouble throwing strikes, you don't swing at the first pitch, you make him throw you strikes? Don't help a guy out when he's struggling, especially when you have a chance to score some runs if you're patient.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Stay Hot
There's not much more to say other than stay hot. The Nats are 20-5 in their last 25 games and 27-18 overall. Their latest loss is yet again, another Strasburg start. Matt Williams has managed the bullpen nicely over this 25 game stretch. The hitting is better than we expected at this point, especially still without Werth and Rendon. The bullpen has settled down a bit and the team is looking good.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The Nats Are Hot...Except When Stras Pitches
At the time of my last post, the Nationals were 7 1/2 games behind the Mets and in sole possession of last place in the NL East. Since then, they've gone 12-3 and shaved 5 games off the Mets lead to jump to second place and 2 1/2 games back (if the Mets win tonight, 1 1/2 if they lose). For the first time this season, following an awful 6 game losing streak, the Nats are hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
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