It's Almost Better Than Making The Playoffs

The inevitable has finally happened. We've reached a new era. An era where the manager's post game press conferences may give us some explanations for the decisions made during the game. We won't get any responses telling us that there is a game to win tomorrow, even after we've officially been eliminated. That's right, Matt Williams was officially fired as manager of the Washington Nationals this morning. It hurts not making the playoffs, but this is a nice consolation prize. Had the Nationals made the playoffs, this guy would be around for at least another year. He would be managing a team that may have less talent than this year's 83 win bunch. Now we have a shot to contend next year. Mike Rizzo has a ton of work and a ton of decisions to make this off season, but he's made by far the easiest decision already, and he's off to a good start. I'll get into some of the other tough decisions Mike Rizzo will have to make and give you some predictions as to who the Nationals may go after on another day. Today is all about looking forward to a new coaching staff in the dugout next year. 

The harder part of this decision was to relieve the rest of the coaching staff. Some of these guys have been with the Nationals and with Nationals players for almost ten years (Randy Knorr). The bottom line though, is this season was a colossal failure. That falls on everybody. Matt Williams will take the brunt of the blame, but the rest of the coaching staff is just as at fault. Side note, the offense actually scored the third most runs in the National League, so Rick Schu did a great job, but he was about the only one. Steve McCatty's message seemed to go stale this year after six years with the Nationals. Above all else though, Mike Rizzo had to give his new manager a clean slate. Not many managers come to a team with their coaching staff already picked for them. That's something Mike Rizzo did to Matt Williams, but it's not something he was going to be able to do again. 

As for the candidates, I'm sticking with three of the four candidates that I listed during my September 14th blog. Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Bo Porter are very likely to all receive interviews for the job. I listed Dusty Baker as a candidate on September 14th, but ultimately, I don't think he's in the conversation. It will be interesting to see if Rizzo decides to go with a guy with some experience, or if he goes with somebody who's never managed again. Clearly, hiring a guy with no experience backfired on the Nationals two years ago. That may persuade Rizzo to change his mind with this next hire, especially with his job seemingly on the line if the Nationals can't compete for a National League postseason berth next season. 

I don't know that Rizzo will actually interview more than three candidates. There's really no point because unless Mike Scioscia opts out of his contract with the Angels and decides he wants to come to the East Coast, there are only two candidates that should even be considered. Bud Black and Dave Martinez are the two names to watch as the Nationals managerial search gets underway. These two guys are different in terms of experience level, but the same in that they know what it takes to win.

Bud Black managed the San Diego Padres to a 649-713 record over the course of 8 1/2 years. More times than not, Black had little to work with in San Diego. He had solid pitching, but never had any bats, so the fact that he put together a .477 winning percentage with a smaller market team like the Padres speaks volumes to what he can do. Not to mention, from 2010 through 2014 (Black's last full season with the Padres), they finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. One of the Nationals biggest failures this season was the bullpen. This guy knows how to manage a bullpen and knows how to help develop bullpen arms. If Black is not one of the top two or three candidates on Rizzo's list, then he just isn't doing his job. 

Dave Martinez is probably this off season's hottest managerial candidate that has no experience. Martinez is currently Joe Maddon's bench coach for the Chicago Cubs. He's actually been Maddon's right hand man since 2007. Considering Maddon has a career .524 winning percentage as a Major League manager, including turning this year's Chicago Cubs team into an instant World Series contender, I'd say that Martinez has learned a good amount from Maddon and is ready to take the next step. The Nationals missed out on their opportunity to grab Maddon a year ago, but the opportunity to nab a possible Maddon 2.0 is sitting right in front of them. 

Ultimately, if I'm Mike Rizzo, I have Bud Black on a plane right now and I'm going to hire him as soon as I can. Like I said, this season was such a failure that Rizzo's job is now on the line. There's no time to experiment with guys who haven't managed before. It's time to right the ship and that starts with addressing your weaknesses. Last year's coaching staff was a weakness. Now Rizzo has the opportunity to turn that into a strength with a guy who has the experience, knows how to handle a pitching staff, and also knows how to handle a clubhouse. Pretty soon, the Nationals may have a new number 20 walking around in the dugout next year, and that's Bud Black. 

Short Bonus Playoff Predictions:

AL Wild Card Game - Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Give me the Astros. The probable AL Cy-Young award winner, Dallas Keuchel has already dominated the Yankees twice this year.

NL Wild Card Game - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they both win? Jake Arrieta is mowing everybody down right now and the Pirates haven't had an answer for him this season (they're not the only ones) as they're 1-3 against him in five games. Gerrit Cole is pretty good though himself. Give me the Pirates in this one, with the Cubs bullpen blowing it in the 8th inning. 

AL Divisional Round - Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers: Unless Cole Hamels pitches on three days rest on Thursday, the Rangers will be at a huge disadvantage on the mound. Either way, I think the Rangers are at a huge disadvantage. Blue Jays in 4.

AL Divisional Round - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros: Keuchel pitching Tuesday means he can't pitch Friday, which also means he won't pitch more than once this series. Royals in 4.

NL Divisional Round - St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Cardinals injuries ever going to catch up to them? Probably not because they're so deep and just keep bringing up prospects that contribute (The Nationals should take notes). I still like the Pirates in this series though. Pirates in 5.

NL Divisional Round - L.A. Dodgers vs N.Y. Mets: As much as I want both the Cubs and Pirates to win, I'd like both of these teams to lose. I actually am rooting for the Mets though in this one. Kershaw and Greinke will be tough to beat, but so will deGrom and Harvey. Mets in 5.

ALCS - Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals: Although the Royals have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, I don't know that they have the starting pitching to maneuver through the Blue Jays lineup. You may see Cueto twice, but other than Cueto, who has been shaky since coming to the Royals, there's nobody that scares me. Blue Jays in 6. 

NLCS - New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: I really like how the Pirates play. They have a deep rotation, a great bullpen, and a lineup that doesn't have many holes. They also have a guy named Andrew McCutchen who plays center field. They could just as easily be bounced out on Wednesday night, but that's alright with me. Pirates in 6.

World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Best bullpen in the Major Leagues. I'm a Nationals fan, if I know one thing, I know this - THE BULLPEN MATTERS, IT CAN WIN OR LOSE YOU GAMES. Pirates in 6.

Perfect Ending

When this season began way back on Monday, April 6th, I said to myself "This season is going to be amazing, we're going to be eliminated from the playoffs and our best player is going to get choked out by a guy who never should have been on the team!" Alright, maybe I didn't say that to myself. I can actually safely say that no fan of any team has ever said that at the beginning of the season. I feel like ending this blog right here and just telling everybody to go back and read my blog from July 29th, which you should still do. The problem is, that blog, which was written a day after the Nats acquired Papelbon, only touches on how I and how many other Nationals fans are feeling about that idiot today.

The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.

Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.

I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.

I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.

There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?

Now You're Just Being Stubborn, Rizzo

I left for vacation with the Nationals five games behind the Mets with a three game head to head series looming. I came back with the Nationals nine and a half games behind the Mets and once again, in a free fall. A pathetic week from a pathetic team. The pathetic bullpen and pathetic managing was on full display. The Nats actually cut the Mets lead to four games before the three game series began on Monday. Mets fans were then pleasantly reminded that things could be worse than having Terry Collins as their manager. Matt Williams taunted Nats fans with poor bullpen decisions and a confusing bunt call. Mike Rizzo took it all in, watched the Mets sweep the Nationals, and still let Matt Williams board the plane to head to Miami with the rest of the team. The team seemed just as confused as the fans because even after an off day on Thursday, they looked lifeless, losing the first two games in Miami.

Mike Rizzo is making it hard on himself at this point. He assembled one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues and now he's hanging onto the manager of a lifeless team because its his buddy. Plain and simple, Matt Williams had no business boarding the plane to Miami after getting swept by the Mets. After letting Drew Storen implode on Tuesday night and throw 22 pitches (just 7 of those were strikes), he trotted him back out there the next night. In a tie game mind you. As you can tell, that ended well for the Nats. He also let Jonathan Papelbon pitch two innings on Tuesday night. Again, he threw him back out there Wednesday night in a game the Nationals were losing. He went from using them zero times in a pivotal series in late July to overworking them this series. It was a slap in the face to a fan base who had been calling for Williams to use Storen and Papelbon earlier in games and to use them in higher leverage situations. Not to mention, in a one run game on Tuesday night in the bottom of the ninth inning, Williams decided to bunt Anthony Rendon, who was two for four on the night, so that he could stay out of a double play. It was the ultimate middle finger to Nats fans. Anyone who says any differently is just delusional unless your argument is that Matt Williams is just that bad of a manager and doesn't understand how awful of a decision that was. I can't watch this team anymore with Williams managing. I actually refuse to, and you should too.

The fact that Williams is still managing this team makes me question what Rizzo is actually watching on a daily basis. It makes me think that he's really considering bringing him back next season. The Nationals schedule over the next two weeks (aside from a three game series against the Orioles) is absolutely atrocious. I'm worried that the Nationals will go 13-3 or something ridiculous over the next two weeks and then Rizzo will say that Williams has done a "masterful" job guiding the Nationals to an 87-75 season. They'll miss the playoffs and Rizzo will tell everyone he could have constructed a better bullpen and injuries played a big role in missing the playoffs. The Nationals will have a much different look to them on the field next year, but the only way they can be competitive is if they also have a much different look to them in the dugout.

Ultimately, I do have faith that Rizzo will let Williams go after the season. The list of candidates for the job should be a pretty short one. At the top of the list should be Bud Black, I don't think I need to go any further as to why. He has the knowledge and the experience it takes to win, that's the bottom line. If you're looking for another candidate with experience, then bringing Dusty Baker in for an interview wouldn't hurt. The final two candidates lack a whole lot of experience but are willing and able to think outside of the box and able to adapt to today's game, which is a huge plus. Dave Martinez, who has been Joe Maddon's right hand man for the past eight years, is going to be a hot name for any team with a managerial opening. Why wouldn't he be? He's been able to learn from one of the best in the game. Maddon is an excellent in game manager, great motivator, and a guy that players want to play for. Going with Martinez could be a huge step forward for a Nationals team that is going to be much younger next year. The last candidate that Rizzo may consider is former third base coach, Bo Porter. Porter got some managerial experience in Houston. Although he didn't win many games, the players liked him, he showed that he's willing to adapt to today's game, and he's not afraid to get fired up and show some personality during and after games. If I had to rank these candidates based on who I'd like to see in the dugout next year, I'd go Bud Black, Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, then Bo Porter. I'd like to think that Black and Martinez would be far and away the top two candidates though.

It should be an interesting off season, but until then we can enjoy the Nationals going on a nice 13-3 or 14-2 run to finish the year. They'll finish three or four games out of first place, but they have to tease us a little bit and show us what should have been, right?

At This Point It's Comical

The Nationals are unofficially eliminated from the playoffs. I unofficially eliminated them way back on August 7th when they blew their 3 run lead in the 8th inning against Colorado. For those of you holding out hope though, you now can write this season off as one of the biggest disappointments in the history of Major League Baseball. So what's left, why even watch? Well, as I said above, the Nationals are unofficially eliminated. Technically, until they're officially eliminated which should happen sometime in mid-late September, they still have a shot. The real reason to still watch though is to watch Matt Williams drive this team even further into the ground. Furthermore, to see if this team actually gives up on Williams because that may be the only thing that could get him fired.

Mike Rizzo is delusional if he thinks that Williams is doing a good job. He's also delusional if he thinks the reason the Nationals are 6.5 games out of first place is because of injuries. Since Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nationals are 14-16. I don't think the Cardinals who are missing their best starting pitcher, their best hitter, their set up man, their starting fist baseman, and rookie Randal Grichuk who's hitting .284 with 15 home runs are using the injury excuse. Oh wait, that's because they're 85-46, they don't need any excuses because they're too busy winning.

Last night's loss against the Cardinals was able to show all of the Nationals weaknesses of the 2015 season in one game. If you hadn't seen a game all year and you were wondering why the Nationals are hovering around .500, you would have had no more questions after watching last night. There was poor defense, there was poor defensive placement, there was AWFUL bullpen management, and terrible relief pitching. All of that in one game. If all of that happened on April 23rd against the Cardinals, I may chalk it up to the Nats trying to find their groove and just getting back into the swing of things. On August 31st though, that's just who this team is.

In the bottom of the fourth inning, with the game tied 1-1, Kolten Wong stepped to the plate with runners on first and third with one out. If you're the Nationals, you're hoping for an inning ending double play. Wong is a fast runner though, so if you have any chance of pulling off a double play the ball has to be hit hard and your short stop and second baseman have to be playing at double play depth. Well what do ya know, Gio Gonzalez does his job and gets the hard hit ground ball to second base. The ball goes right past a diving Anthony Rendon into center field, the Cardinals score and take a 2-1 lead. By the end of the inning, the Cardinals led 3-1, all because the Nationals weren't positioned right. Is that on Matt Williams, is that on Mark Weidemaier, or is that on Anthony Rendon? I don't know, but it's a mental mistake that good teams don't make. It was a tailor made double play if you're playing at double play depth. It's honestly mind blowing that a Major League team isn't playing at double play depth with a runners on first and third and just one out.

Matt Williams takes the cake again though. The Nationals clawed back into this game scoring one run in the 6th to make it a 3-2 game and then took a 5-3 lead on a Ryan Zimmerman blast in the top of the 7th. Right after the Nationals took the 5-3 lead, I sent this text to a few friends "Now we get to watch Williams manage a close game, sit back and enjoy". It was too predictable. As a Nationals fan, you knew the Nationals weren't going to be able to hold a 5-3 lead because the bottom of the 7th inning was coming up. Plain and simple, Williams can't manage a bullpen. Williams went with Casey Janssen to pitch the 7th inning last night and I'm fine with that. The problem is when the Cardinals got their first two hitters on against Janssen, Williams should have called down to the bullpen to get Drew Storen warming. Instead, he warmed nobody and thought he was the smartest guy at Busch Stadium when Janssen got a double play. Then came the pitch around to Matt Carpenter so the Nats could face a good contact hitter hitting .333 on the year. At this point, Felipe Rivero is warming up, not Drew Storen. The Cardinals ended up scoring 4 runs in the inning and taking an 8-5 game. So quick recap - 1) the Mets had already won, 2) the Nats have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th with two outs but with the Cardinals threatening, 3) Casey Janssen had thrown 20+ pitches already, 4) you leave Janssen in, never warm Storen up, and again your two best relievers never even touch a baseball in a tight game that you needed to win to keep pace. I didn't see the post game press conference, but I'll tell you what Williams said, "Well, I had to stick with Casey there because Drew and Thornton were unavailable. We'll just have to come ready to play tomorrow and hopefully get a win". After every loss, Williams will tell you at least two relievers are unavailable and that there's always tomorrow. Matt Williams managing career may not have many more "tomorrow's" because if he does get fired, there's no way any team gives him another shot after seeing how terrible he was for the Nationals.

Mets fans will tell you that Terry Collins is a bad manager, but on Sunday, Collins used Tyler Clippard to get the final out in the 7th inning and then let him pitch the 8th inning to ensure the Mets kept the lead. Matt Williams has never and will never do that. It would require him to go outside his comfort level, think outside the box, and do something that may actually win you a game. To not use one of your two best relievers to get you the final out in the 7th inning against a great team is poor baseball and poor execution. There are four games off the top of my head that I can think of that the Nationals should have won if not for Matt Williams managing this team. That's a difference of four games in the standings, instead of 6.5 games back, you would me a manageable 2.5 games back. This team can not reach its potential and will not win with Matt Williams as the manager. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo thinks that Williams is a genius and he's not going to fire him unless the players clearly give up on him. I have to tell ya, if I'm a player in that clubhouse, I'm pretty close to giving up on this guy.

This is Our Nightmare

The Nats have officially put themselves in a bind. These next two series in San Francisco and Colorado are now must win series. They need to go 5-2 to end this road trip. Based on the fact that they are 4-9 over their past 13 games, that doesn't seem likely. If they want to get in and stay in the pennant race, they're going to have to get hot soon. Now is as good a time as any.

A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.

The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.

As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.

Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.

Record Against Aces

The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.

Lineup Change

Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.

Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.

It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late. 

It's Getting Worse...Hire Bud Black

I'm seriously baffled. There's truly not much to say that hasn't already been said or that hasn't already run through your mind. I don't think anybody can fully explain Matt Williams decision making process at this point, not even Matt Williams himself. I thought I was mad when I wrote the last post after the Mets series. Yes, the one where Williams neglected to use either of his best relievers in two close games while fighting the Mets for first place. Williams has actually found a way to infuriate me more though over the last three games.

On Monday night, Williams decided in a 5-0 game that it was finally time to bring in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. After he let them throw zero pitches in close games against the Mets, he decided that in a blowout they needed some work. Let me get this straight, in a tie game from the 8th inning on, you'd like to use Aaron Barrett and Felipe Rivero. However, trailing 5-0 in the 8th inning, you'd like to use your set up guy and closer. That's quite the philosophy. It's not going to win you many games, but it's definitely interesting! I was pretty confused at this point, but I wouldn't say I was mad though because bringing in Storen and Papelbon on Monday had no bearing on the outcome of that game. Williams wasn't done though, he had a plan for Wednesday night that was really going to put Nats fans over the edge.

Williams has essentially made it known without saying it that Gio Gonzalez is on an extremely short leash. His last start against the Mets, he went 4 2/3 innings giving up 1 run. Last night against the Diamondbacks, he went 5+ innings giving up 2 runs. Gio has historically been somewhat wild and known to walk a fair amount of batters. That's also what makes him so good though. It's an uncomfortable at bat for anybody up there against Gio. He struck out 7 last night and walked 1, he was pitching very well and worked out of numerous jams. Williams, of course, thought otherwise. Let's backtrack to the bottom of the 5th inning though. Gio was due up second in the inning and Matt Williams let him hit. Fast forward to the top of the 6th inning and Gio gives up a lead off single to Yasmany Tomas and then Williams pulls him. I just about lost it at this point. There is absolutely zero reason you would let Gio hit if you knew you were going to take him out the next inning if he let one batter reach. Seriously, no reason you would do that. Matt Williams punted an at bat in a close game for no reason.

To make matters worse, Williams showed he clearly has no clue what he's doing because he brought in Aaron Barrett. First of all, Aaron Barrett has a 4.60 ERA. He has no business being in a tie game or one run game. Here's the real kicker, Barrett has held opponents to a .196 batting average with nobody on base. If you want to use Barrett, let him start an inning fresh, that's when he's at his best. On the flip side, opponents are hitting .290 off Barrett with a runner (or multiple runners) on base. When Barrett came in, he was warming up next to Matt Thornton. Thornton holds opponents to a .196 batting average with runner(s) on base. The next issue is the Diamondbacks next batter after the Tomas single was Chris Owings. Chris Owings is a right handed batter, however, he hits .255 off of right handers and just .152 against lefties. So naturally, Matt Williams went with a right hander and Owings singled. He had Gio on the mound who is a lefty and Thornton, another lefty, warming up. It's honestly mind boggling. I don't know if he's decided not to look at those kind of stats, or if he just totally disregards them and goes with his gut. Whatever he's doing is clearly not working.

Once Barrett came in and blew the game open it didn't matter what Williams did. The only good managing decision he made last night was to not use Janssen, Storen, or Papelbon again in a blowout. There are two things that can save the Nationals season at this point. First, is getting Denard Span back. He's the table setter, the offense is so much better and much smoother with him at the top of the lineup (the Nats also need to resign him, but that's another story for another day). Second, they unfortunately have to fire Matt Williams. He has to go, there's no way around it. He has no feel for how to manage a bullpen in a close game. If you can't do that, your team is going to struggle to play .500 baseball. He doesn't even have reasons for why he's making certain moves. His post game interviews offer no reasoning behind his decisions. Not to mention, yesterday on The Junkies, Williams sounded completely defeated. I get it - answering the same question over and over is exhausting, managing a baseball team for 162+ games is exhausting, but that's the job. That's what you were hired for. You aren't doing your job right now, that's all there is to it. There needs to be a change. Absent a hot streak, the Nationals are in real danger of missing the playoffs during their "dream season" where they were supposed to breeze through the regular season. I'm not saying hit the panic button yet because this team has a ton of talent. If Rizzo would swallow his pride and admit he made a mistake in hiring Williams, then he could put Williams on a plane back to Arizona today with the Diamondbacks. That's not likely to happen though and ultimately on Sunday, October 4th, after the season finale against the Mets, Nats fans might be sitting on their couches stunned at the fact that the Mets are going to the playoffs and the Nationals are not.

Bud Black is waiting for a phone call and I'm waiting to see Bud Black in a Nationals uniform.

The Worst Possible Outcome

It's August 3rd and I'm about ready to start a petition for the Nationals to fire Matt Williams. Williams wasn't the only reason that the Nationals just got swept by the Mets which forced a virtual tie for first place, but he's a big reason for it. My last blog was about Jonathan Papelbon and how I didn't personally like the move mainly because of what it may do to the clubhouse. However, I did say that Papelbon is a very good pitcher. Having an 8th and 9th inning of Storen and Papelbon is a luxury most teams in the Majors do not have. Sure you can blame these losses on the fact that the offense couldn't manufacture any runs and I'd tell you that you have a valid point. The Mets do have one if, if not the best, starting pitching staffs in the Majors though. If you were expecting the Nats to drop 5+ runs every night against the Mets, then in all honesty, you have no clue what you're talking about. This was going to be a series where runs come at a premium, which means as a manager, every move counts.

There's no doubt that going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position is going to back to haunt you. The hitting in this series was absolutely awful. I could go on an on about how I have no faith in the Nationals offense in big games, but there's no point in doing that because it's already well documented. This is the same Nationals team that went 2 for 24 last October in the NLDS against the Giants. They can't push runs across in big games. It's an awful problem to have, but its also a problem that you can probably still win with because of the Nationals pitching. You need an experienced and competent manager to navigate you through the 2-1 and 3-2 games though. The Giants have that in Bruce Bochy and the Orioles have that in Buck Showalter. The Nationals do not have that in Matt Williams.

This brings us back to the Nationals having the luxury of having Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. These two guys have two of the lowest ERA's among relievers in the National League. In the biggest series of the season to date for the Nationals, their two best relievers pitched exactly ZERO innings. Not one appearance, not one inning. It's not like these games weren't close. The Nationals lost 2-1 in 12 innings on Friday and then 3-2, with the winning run being scored in the bottom of the eighth on Saturday. Are you kidding me? You're out of excuses Matt Williams. Completely out of excuses. You were a fine third base coach with the Diamondbacks and I think that's probably where you need to be. That way you don't have to even think about a bullpen decision.

Felipe Rivero, who has turned into quite a good reliever by the way, gave the Nationals two fantastic innings on Friday night. Then in the bottom of the 12th, Matt Williams decided to trot Rivero back out there for another inning of work. Keep in mind, Rivero was a starter up until 2014, at which point the Nationals converted him to a reliever. That means this entire year, Rivero had been pitching in a relief role where he would throw one or two innings. Rivero comes out for his third inning of work and promptly gives up a walk off homer. I'm still baffled, so I'd like to again point out that Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen are still just hanging out in the bullpen at this point. The excuse for Friday night was that the Nationals had two relievers who weren't available, but they wouldn't say who. I would assume Storen was one of them because he had pitched the previous two nights. I would also assume if the Nationals happen to run out of pitchers Friday night, Storen would have happily come in the game. There was no reason Rivero went back out there for his third inning of work. When it backfired, Williams had to come up with a quick excuse so he went with the famous "some of my guys weren't available". Whatever the case may be it was a garbage decision.

Saturday night though you're assuming all your guys are available except probably Rivero and Barrett who went 2 innings on Friday. In a 2-2 game in the 8th inning, you're most likely thinking here comes Storen. You're wrong. He's hanging out in the bullpen with Papelbon again! Talk about building camaraderie, those guys spent three days together without even touching a baseball! Matt Williams decides to go with matchups instead and bring Matt Thornton in the game instead. Thornton has been great for the Nationals again this year, but in a tie game in the 8th inning of the biggest series of the year, you'd probably like Storen out there. Matty boy makes the wrong call again, Nats lose 3-2.

I just can't watch it anymore. If you're going to lose big games, lose them with your best guys out there. Use some common sense. Would you bench Bryce Harper in favor of Tyler Moore because you like the matchup better? No, you wouldn't. So why would you do it tied 2-2 in the 8th inning of a a meaningful division game? Your two best relievers saw the mound at Citi Field a combined zero times in three games. I can't get over that. Unfortunately, I don't see the bullpen management ever getting better. Over a year and a half into the job, Williams still can't get a feel for the appropriate time to use his guys. Like I said, not being able to push runs across falls on the lineup, but not using your two best relievers in the most meaningful series of the year, that falls on the manager. The Nationals and Mets finish the regular season facing off against each other in New York and I'm honestly terrified at the thought of Matt Williams possibly managing a game that decides whether or not the Nationals make the playoffs. Bud Black is available, just saying.