Just like I thought, the team with the best bullpen won the World Series. Well, sort of. My original prediction was that the Pirates would win the World Series. That didn't exactly turn out so well. The Pirates led the Majors with a 2.67 bullpen ERA, but right behind them were the Kansas City Royals with a 2.72 bullpen ERA. That bullpen was on full display during the World Series. Every game, you just got the feeling that if the Royals starter got them through five innings and they were within three runs, the Royals had a shot. Their bullpen gave up five total runs during the World Series, four of those runs were charged to Franklin Morales in Game 3, which was the only game the Royals lost. It was an absolutely dominating performance.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
Monday, November 2, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Mattingly Out In L.A. & World Series Prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to "mutually part ways" with manager Don Mattingly this morning. If the Nationals had a manager in place, this would probably be a meaningless headline for Nationals fans. The Nationals have not yet hired a new manager though, so expect to see Mattingly's name pop up within the next day or two.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Monday, October 5, 2015
It's Almost Better Than Making The Playoffs
The inevitable has finally happened. We've reached a new era. An era where the manager's post game press conferences may give us some explanations for the decisions made during the game. We won't get any responses telling us that there is a game to win tomorrow, even after we've officially been eliminated. That's right, Matt Williams was officially fired as manager of the Washington Nationals this morning. It hurts not making the playoffs, but this is a nice consolation prize. Had the Nationals made the playoffs, this guy would be around for at least another year. He would be managing a team that may have less talent than this year's 83 win bunch. Now we have a shot to contend next year. Mike Rizzo has a ton of work and a ton of decisions to make this off season, but he's made by far the easiest decision already, and he's off to a good start. I'll get into some of the other tough decisions Mike Rizzo will have to make and give you some predictions as to who the Nationals may go after on another day. Today is all about looking forward to a new coaching staff in the dugout next year.
The harder part of this decision was to relieve the rest of the coaching staff. Some of these guys have been with the Nationals and with Nationals players for almost ten years (Randy Knorr). The bottom line though, is this season was a colossal failure. That falls on everybody. Matt Williams will take the brunt of the blame, but the rest of the coaching staff is just as at fault. Side note, the offense actually scored the third most runs in the National League, so Rick Schu did a great job, but he was about the only one. Steve McCatty's message seemed to go stale this year after six years with the Nationals. Above all else though, Mike Rizzo had to give his new manager a clean slate. Not many managers come to a team with their coaching staff already picked for them. That's something Mike Rizzo did to Matt Williams, but it's not something he was going to be able to do again.
As for the candidates, I'm sticking with three of the four candidates that I listed during my September 14th blog. Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Bo Porter are very likely to all receive interviews for the job. I listed Dusty Baker as a candidate on September 14th, but ultimately, I don't think he's in the conversation. It will be interesting to see if Rizzo decides to go with a guy with some experience, or if he goes with somebody who's never managed again. Clearly, hiring a guy with no experience backfired on the Nationals two years ago. That may persuade Rizzo to change his mind with this next hire, especially with his job seemingly on the line if the Nationals can't compete for a National League postseason berth next season.
I don't know that Rizzo will actually interview more than three candidates. There's really no point because unless Mike Scioscia opts out of his contract with the Angels and decides he wants to come to the East Coast, there are only two candidates that should even be considered. Bud Black and Dave Martinez are the two names to watch as the Nationals managerial search gets underway. These two guys are different in terms of experience level, but the same in that they know what it takes to win.
Bud Black managed the San Diego Padres to a 649-713 record over the course of 8 1/2 years. More times than not, Black had little to work with in San Diego. He had solid pitching, but never had any bats, so the fact that he put together a .477 winning percentage with a smaller market team like the Padres speaks volumes to what he can do. Not to mention, from 2010 through 2014 (Black's last full season with the Padres), they finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. One of the Nationals biggest failures this season was the bullpen. This guy knows how to manage a bullpen and knows how to help develop bullpen arms. If Black is not one of the top two or three candidates on Rizzo's list, then he just isn't doing his job.
Dave Martinez is probably this off season's hottest managerial candidate that has no experience. Martinez is currently Joe Maddon's bench coach for the Chicago Cubs. He's actually been Maddon's right hand man since 2007. Considering Maddon has a career .524 winning percentage as a Major League manager, including turning this year's Chicago Cubs team into an instant World Series contender, I'd say that Martinez has learned a good amount from Maddon and is ready to take the next step. The Nationals missed out on their opportunity to grab Maddon a year ago, but the opportunity to nab a possible Maddon 2.0 is sitting right in front of them.
Ultimately, if I'm Mike Rizzo, I have Bud Black on a plane right now and I'm going to hire him as soon as I can. Like I said, this season was such a failure that Rizzo's job is now on the line. There's no time to experiment with guys who haven't managed before. It's time to right the ship and that starts with addressing your weaknesses. Last year's coaching staff was a weakness. Now Rizzo has the opportunity to turn that into a strength with a guy who has the experience, knows how to handle a pitching staff, and also knows how to handle a clubhouse. Pretty soon, the Nationals may have a new number 20 walking around in the dugout next year, and that's Bud Black.
Short Bonus Playoff Predictions:
AL Wild Card Game - Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Give me the Astros. The probable AL Cy-Young award winner, Dallas Keuchel has already dominated the Yankees twice this year.
NL Wild Card Game - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they both win? Jake Arrieta is mowing everybody down right now and the Pirates haven't had an answer for him this season (they're not the only ones) as they're 1-3 against him in five games. Gerrit Cole is pretty good though himself. Give me the Pirates in this one, with the Cubs bullpen blowing it in the 8th inning.
AL Divisional Round - Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers: Unless Cole Hamels pitches on three days rest on Thursday, the Rangers will be at a huge disadvantage on the mound. Either way, I think the Rangers are at a huge disadvantage. Blue Jays in 4.
AL Divisional Round - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros: Keuchel pitching Tuesday means he can't pitch Friday, which also means he won't pitch more than once this series. Royals in 4.
NL Divisional Round - St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Cardinals injuries ever going to catch up to them? Probably not because they're so deep and just keep bringing up prospects that contribute (The Nationals should take notes). I still like the Pirates in this series though. Pirates in 5.
NL Divisional Round - L.A. Dodgers vs N.Y. Mets: As much as I want both the Cubs and Pirates to win, I'd like both of these teams to lose. I actually am rooting for the Mets though in this one. Kershaw and Greinke will be tough to beat, but so will deGrom and Harvey. Mets in 5.
ALCS - Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals: Although the Royals have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, I don't know that they have the starting pitching to maneuver through the Blue Jays lineup. You may see Cueto twice, but other than Cueto, who has been shaky since coming to the Royals, there's nobody that scares me. Blue Jays in 6.
NLCS - New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: I really like how the Pirates play. They have a deep rotation, a great bullpen, and a lineup that doesn't have many holes. They also have a guy named Andrew McCutchen who plays center field. They could just as easily be bounced out on Wednesday night, but that's alright with me. Pirates in 6.
World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Best bullpen in the Major Leagues. I'm a Nationals fan, if I know one thing, I know this - THE BULLPEN MATTERS, IT CAN WIN OR LOSE YOU GAMES. Pirates in 6.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Perfect Ending
When this season began way back on Monday, April 6th, I said to myself "This season is going to be amazing, we're going to be eliminated from the playoffs and our best player is going to get choked out by a guy who never should have been on the team!" Alright, maybe I didn't say that to myself. I can actually safely say that no fan of any team has ever said that at the beginning of the season. I feel like ending this blog right here and just telling everybody to go back and read my blog from July 29th, which you should still do. The problem is, that blog, which was written a day after the Nats acquired Papelbon, only touches on how I and how many other Nationals fans are feeling about that idiot today.
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
Monday, September 14, 2015
Now You're Just Being Stubborn, Rizzo
I left for vacation with the Nationals five games behind the Mets with a three game head to head series looming. I came back with the Nationals nine and a half games behind the Mets and once again, in a free fall. A pathetic week from a pathetic team. The pathetic bullpen and pathetic managing was on full display. The Nats actually cut the Mets lead to four games before the three game series began on Monday. Mets fans were then pleasantly reminded that things could be worse than having Terry Collins as their manager. Matt Williams taunted Nats fans with poor bullpen decisions and a confusing bunt call. Mike Rizzo took it all in, watched the Mets sweep the Nationals, and still let Matt Williams board the plane to head to Miami with the rest of the team. The team seemed just as confused as the fans because even after an off day on Thursday, they looked lifeless, losing the first two games in Miami.
Mike Rizzo is making it hard on himself at this point. He assembled one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues and now he's hanging onto the manager of a lifeless team because its his buddy. Plain and simple, Matt Williams had no business boarding the plane to Miami after getting swept by the Mets. After letting Drew Storen implode on Tuesday night and throw 22 pitches (just 7 of those were strikes), he trotted him back out there the next night. In a tie game mind you. As you can tell, that ended well for the Nats. He also let Jonathan Papelbon pitch two innings on Tuesday night. Again, he threw him back out there Wednesday night in a game the Nationals were losing. He went from using them zero times in a pivotal series in late July to overworking them this series. It was a slap in the face to a fan base who had been calling for Williams to use Storen and Papelbon earlier in games and to use them in higher leverage situations. Not to mention, in a one run game on Tuesday night in the bottom of the ninth inning, Williams decided to bunt Anthony Rendon, who was two for four on the night, so that he could stay out of a double play. It was the ultimate middle finger to Nats fans. Anyone who says any differently is just delusional unless your argument is that Matt Williams is just that bad of a manager and doesn't understand how awful of a decision that was. I can't watch this team anymore with Williams managing. I actually refuse to, and you should too.
The fact that Williams is still managing this team makes me question what Rizzo is actually watching on a daily basis. It makes me think that he's really considering bringing him back next season. The Nationals schedule over the next two weeks (aside from a three game series against the Orioles) is absolutely atrocious. I'm worried that the Nationals will go 13-3 or something ridiculous over the next two weeks and then Rizzo will say that Williams has done a "masterful" job guiding the Nationals to an 87-75 season. They'll miss the playoffs and Rizzo will tell everyone he could have constructed a better bullpen and injuries played a big role in missing the playoffs. The Nationals will have a much different look to them on the field next year, but the only way they can be competitive is if they also have a much different look to them in the dugout.
Ultimately, I do have faith that Rizzo will let Williams go after the season. The list of candidates for the job should be a pretty short one. At the top of the list should be Bud Black, I don't think I need to go any further as to why. He has the knowledge and the experience it takes to win, that's the bottom line. If you're looking for another candidate with experience, then bringing Dusty Baker in for an interview wouldn't hurt. The final two candidates lack a whole lot of experience but are willing and able to think outside of the box and able to adapt to today's game, which is a huge plus. Dave Martinez, who has been Joe Maddon's right hand man for the past eight years, is going to be a hot name for any team with a managerial opening. Why wouldn't he be? He's been able to learn from one of the best in the game. Maddon is an excellent in game manager, great motivator, and a guy that players want to play for. Going with Martinez could be a huge step forward for a Nationals team that is going to be much younger next year. The last candidate that Rizzo may consider is former third base coach, Bo Porter. Porter got some managerial experience in Houston. Although he didn't win many games, the players liked him, he showed that he's willing to adapt to today's game, and he's not afraid to get fired up and show some personality during and after games. If I had to rank these candidates based on who I'd like to see in the dugout next year, I'd go Bud Black, Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, then Bo Porter. I'd like to think that Black and Martinez would be far and away the top two candidates though.
It should be an interesting off season, but until then we can enjoy the Nationals going on a nice 13-3 or 14-2 run to finish the year. They'll finish three or four games out of first place, but they have to tease us a little bit and show us what should have been, right?
Mike Rizzo is making it hard on himself at this point. He assembled one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues and now he's hanging onto the manager of a lifeless team because its his buddy. Plain and simple, Matt Williams had no business boarding the plane to Miami after getting swept by the Mets. After letting Drew Storen implode on Tuesday night and throw 22 pitches (just 7 of those were strikes), he trotted him back out there the next night. In a tie game mind you. As you can tell, that ended well for the Nats. He also let Jonathan Papelbon pitch two innings on Tuesday night. Again, he threw him back out there Wednesday night in a game the Nationals were losing. He went from using them zero times in a pivotal series in late July to overworking them this series. It was a slap in the face to a fan base who had been calling for Williams to use Storen and Papelbon earlier in games and to use them in higher leverage situations. Not to mention, in a one run game on Tuesday night in the bottom of the ninth inning, Williams decided to bunt Anthony Rendon, who was two for four on the night, so that he could stay out of a double play. It was the ultimate middle finger to Nats fans. Anyone who says any differently is just delusional unless your argument is that Matt Williams is just that bad of a manager and doesn't understand how awful of a decision that was. I can't watch this team anymore with Williams managing. I actually refuse to, and you should too.
The fact that Williams is still managing this team makes me question what Rizzo is actually watching on a daily basis. It makes me think that he's really considering bringing him back next season. The Nationals schedule over the next two weeks (aside from a three game series against the Orioles) is absolutely atrocious. I'm worried that the Nationals will go 13-3 or something ridiculous over the next two weeks and then Rizzo will say that Williams has done a "masterful" job guiding the Nationals to an 87-75 season. They'll miss the playoffs and Rizzo will tell everyone he could have constructed a better bullpen and injuries played a big role in missing the playoffs. The Nationals will have a much different look to them on the field next year, but the only way they can be competitive is if they also have a much different look to them in the dugout.
Ultimately, I do have faith that Rizzo will let Williams go after the season. The list of candidates for the job should be a pretty short one. At the top of the list should be Bud Black, I don't think I need to go any further as to why. He has the knowledge and the experience it takes to win, that's the bottom line. If you're looking for another candidate with experience, then bringing Dusty Baker in for an interview wouldn't hurt. The final two candidates lack a whole lot of experience but are willing and able to think outside of the box and able to adapt to today's game, which is a huge plus. Dave Martinez, who has been Joe Maddon's right hand man for the past eight years, is going to be a hot name for any team with a managerial opening. Why wouldn't he be? He's been able to learn from one of the best in the game. Maddon is an excellent in game manager, great motivator, and a guy that players want to play for. Going with Martinez could be a huge step forward for a Nationals team that is going to be much younger next year. The last candidate that Rizzo may consider is former third base coach, Bo Porter. Porter got some managerial experience in Houston. Although he didn't win many games, the players liked him, he showed that he's willing to adapt to today's game, and he's not afraid to get fired up and show some personality during and after games. If I had to rank these candidates based on who I'd like to see in the dugout next year, I'd go Bud Black, Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, then Bo Porter. I'd like to think that Black and Martinez would be far and away the top two candidates though.
It should be an interesting off season, but until then we can enjoy the Nationals going on a nice 13-3 or 14-2 run to finish the year. They'll finish three or four games out of first place, but they have to tease us a little bit and show us what should have been, right?
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
At This Point It's Comical
The Nationals are unofficially eliminated from the playoffs. I unofficially eliminated them way back on August 7th when they blew their 3 run lead in the 8th inning against Colorado. For those of you holding out hope though, you now can write this season off as one of the biggest disappointments in the history of Major League Baseball. So what's left, why even watch? Well, as I said above, the Nationals are unofficially eliminated. Technically, until they're officially eliminated which should happen sometime in mid-late September, they still have a shot. The real reason to still watch though is to watch Matt Williams drive this team even further into the ground. Furthermore, to see if this team actually gives up on Williams because that may be the only thing that could get him fired.
Mike Rizzo is delusional if he thinks that Williams is doing a good job. He's also delusional if he thinks the reason the Nationals are 6.5 games out of first place is because of injuries. Since Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nationals are 14-16. I don't think the Cardinals who are missing their best starting pitcher, their best hitter, their set up man, their starting fist baseman, and rookie Randal Grichuk who's hitting .284 with 15 home runs are using the injury excuse. Oh wait, that's because they're 85-46, they don't need any excuses because they're too busy winning.
Last night's loss against the Cardinals was able to show all of the Nationals weaknesses of the 2015 season in one game. If you hadn't seen a game all year and you were wondering why the Nationals are hovering around .500, you would have had no more questions after watching last night. There was poor defense, there was poor defensive placement, there was AWFUL bullpen management, and terrible relief pitching. All of that in one game. If all of that happened on April 23rd against the Cardinals, I may chalk it up to the Nats trying to find their groove and just getting back into the swing of things. On August 31st though, that's just who this team is.
In the bottom of the fourth inning, with the game tied 1-1, Kolten Wong stepped to the plate with runners on first and third with one out. If you're the Nationals, you're hoping for an inning ending double play. Wong is a fast runner though, so if you have any chance of pulling off a double play the ball has to be hit hard and your short stop and second baseman have to be playing at double play depth. Well what do ya know, Gio Gonzalez does his job and gets the hard hit ground ball to second base. The ball goes right past a diving Anthony Rendon into center field, the Cardinals score and take a 2-1 lead. By the end of the inning, the Cardinals led 3-1, all because the Nationals weren't positioned right. Is that on Matt Williams, is that on Mark Weidemaier, or is that on Anthony Rendon? I don't know, but it's a mental mistake that good teams don't make. It was a tailor made double play if you're playing at double play depth. It's honestly mind blowing that a Major League team isn't playing at double play depth with a runners on first and third and just one out.
Matt Williams takes the cake again though. The Nationals clawed back into this game scoring one run in the 6th to make it a 3-2 game and then took a 5-3 lead on a Ryan Zimmerman blast in the top of the 7th. Right after the Nationals took the 5-3 lead, I sent this text to a few friends "Now we get to watch Williams manage a close game, sit back and enjoy". It was too predictable. As a Nationals fan, you knew the Nationals weren't going to be able to hold a 5-3 lead because the bottom of the 7th inning was coming up. Plain and simple, Williams can't manage a bullpen. Williams went with Casey Janssen to pitch the 7th inning last night and I'm fine with that. The problem is when the Cardinals got their first two hitters on against Janssen, Williams should have called down to the bullpen to get Drew Storen warming. Instead, he warmed nobody and thought he was the smartest guy at Busch Stadium when Janssen got a double play. Then came the pitch around to Matt Carpenter so the Nats could face a good contact hitter hitting .333 on the year. At this point, Felipe Rivero is warming up, not Drew Storen. The Cardinals ended up scoring 4 runs in the inning and taking an 8-5 game. So quick recap - 1) the Mets had already won, 2) the Nats have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th with two outs but with the Cardinals threatening, 3) Casey Janssen had thrown 20+ pitches already, 4) you leave Janssen in, never warm Storen up, and again your two best relievers never even touch a baseball in a tight game that you needed to win to keep pace. I didn't see the post game press conference, but I'll tell you what Williams said, "Well, I had to stick with Casey there because Drew and Thornton were unavailable. We'll just have to come ready to play tomorrow and hopefully get a win". After every loss, Williams will tell you at least two relievers are unavailable and that there's always tomorrow. Matt Williams managing career may not have many more "tomorrow's" because if he does get fired, there's no way any team gives him another shot after seeing how terrible he was for the Nationals.
Mets fans will tell you that Terry Collins is a bad manager, but on Sunday, Collins used Tyler Clippard to get the final out in the 7th inning and then let him pitch the 8th inning to ensure the Mets kept the lead. Matt Williams has never and will never do that. It would require him to go outside his comfort level, think outside the box, and do something that may actually win you a game. To not use one of your two best relievers to get you the final out in the 7th inning against a great team is poor baseball and poor execution. There are four games off the top of my head that I can think of that the Nationals should have won if not for Matt Williams managing this team. That's a difference of four games in the standings, instead of 6.5 games back, you would me a manageable 2.5 games back. This team can not reach its potential and will not win with Matt Williams as the manager. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo thinks that Williams is a genius and he's not going to fire him unless the players clearly give up on him. I have to tell ya, if I'm a player in that clubhouse, I'm pretty close to giving up on this guy.
Mike Rizzo is delusional if he thinks that Williams is doing a good job. He's also delusional if he thinks the reason the Nationals are 6.5 games out of first place is because of injuries. Since Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nationals are 14-16. I don't think the Cardinals who are missing their best starting pitcher, their best hitter, their set up man, their starting fist baseman, and rookie Randal Grichuk who's hitting .284 with 15 home runs are using the injury excuse. Oh wait, that's because they're 85-46, they don't need any excuses because they're too busy winning.
Last night's loss against the Cardinals was able to show all of the Nationals weaknesses of the 2015 season in one game. If you hadn't seen a game all year and you were wondering why the Nationals are hovering around .500, you would have had no more questions after watching last night. There was poor defense, there was poor defensive placement, there was AWFUL bullpen management, and terrible relief pitching. All of that in one game. If all of that happened on April 23rd against the Cardinals, I may chalk it up to the Nats trying to find their groove and just getting back into the swing of things. On August 31st though, that's just who this team is.
In the bottom of the fourth inning, with the game tied 1-1, Kolten Wong stepped to the plate with runners on first and third with one out. If you're the Nationals, you're hoping for an inning ending double play. Wong is a fast runner though, so if you have any chance of pulling off a double play the ball has to be hit hard and your short stop and second baseman have to be playing at double play depth. Well what do ya know, Gio Gonzalez does his job and gets the hard hit ground ball to second base. The ball goes right past a diving Anthony Rendon into center field, the Cardinals score and take a 2-1 lead. By the end of the inning, the Cardinals led 3-1, all because the Nationals weren't positioned right. Is that on Matt Williams, is that on Mark Weidemaier, or is that on Anthony Rendon? I don't know, but it's a mental mistake that good teams don't make. It was a tailor made double play if you're playing at double play depth. It's honestly mind blowing that a Major League team isn't playing at double play depth with a runners on first and third and just one out.
Matt Williams takes the cake again though. The Nationals clawed back into this game scoring one run in the 6th to make it a 3-2 game and then took a 5-3 lead on a Ryan Zimmerman blast in the top of the 7th. Right after the Nationals took the 5-3 lead, I sent this text to a few friends "Now we get to watch Williams manage a close game, sit back and enjoy". It was too predictable. As a Nationals fan, you knew the Nationals weren't going to be able to hold a 5-3 lead because the bottom of the 7th inning was coming up. Plain and simple, Williams can't manage a bullpen. Williams went with Casey Janssen to pitch the 7th inning last night and I'm fine with that. The problem is when the Cardinals got their first two hitters on against Janssen, Williams should have called down to the bullpen to get Drew Storen warming. Instead, he warmed nobody and thought he was the smartest guy at Busch Stadium when Janssen got a double play. Then came the pitch around to Matt Carpenter so the Nats could face a good contact hitter hitting .333 on the year. At this point, Felipe Rivero is warming up, not Drew Storen. The Cardinals ended up scoring 4 runs in the inning and taking an 8-5 game. So quick recap - 1) the Mets had already won, 2) the Nats have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th with two outs but with the Cardinals threatening, 3) Casey Janssen had thrown 20+ pitches already, 4) you leave Janssen in, never warm Storen up, and again your two best relievers never even touch a baseball in a tight game that you needed to win to keep pace. I didn't see the post game press conference, but I'll tell you what Williams said, "Well, I had to stick with Casey there because Drew and Thornton were unavailable. We'll just have to come ready to play tomorrow and hopefully get a win". After every loss, Williams will tell you at least two relievers are unavailable and that there's always tomorrow. Matt Williams managing career may not have many more "tomorrow's" because if he does get fired, there's no way any team gives him another shot after seeing how terrible he was for the Nationals.
Mets fans will tell you that Terry Collins is a bad manager, but on Sunday, Collins used Tyler Clippard to get the final out in the 7th inning and then let him pitch the 8th inning to ensure the Mets kept the lead. Matt Williams has never and will never do that. It would require him to go outside his comfort level, think outside the box, and do something that may actually win you a game. To not use one of your two best relievers to get you the final out in the 7th inning against a great team is poor baseball and poor execution. There are four games off the top of my head that I can think of that the Nationals should have won if not for Matt Williams managing this team. That's a difference of four games in the standings, instead of 6.5 games back, you would me a manageable 2.5 games back. This team can not reach its potential and will not win with Matt Williams as the manager. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo thinks that Williams is a genius and he's not going to fire him unless the players clearly give up on him. I have to tell ya, if I'm a player in that clubhouse, I'm pretty close to giving up on this guy.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
This is Our Nightmare
The Nats have officially put themselves in a bind. These next two series in San Francisco and Colorado are now must win series. They need to go 5-2 to end this road trip. Based on the fact that they are 4-9 over their past 13 games, that doesn't seem likely. If they want to get in and stay in the pennant race, they're going to have to get hot soon. Now is as good a time as any.
A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.
The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.
As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.
Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.
Record Against Aces
The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.
Lineup Change
Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.
Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.
It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late.
A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.
The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.
As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.
Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.
Record Against Aces
The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.
Lineup Change
Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.
Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.
It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)