Same Nats, Different Year

They’re about to do it again. They’re about to make it four straight divisional round exits. It seems like it’s about that time to just say “hey, this team isn’t built to win”. You can point to the 95, 96, 97, and 98 win seasons that say otherwise. But you can’t ignore the facts and the facts are that this team as constructed can win in the regular season, but can’t win in the playoffs.

Year in and year out, the bats are to blame. They have a bunch of .300 hitters during the regular season, and then when they playoffs roll around they become .100 hitters. Go ahead, let me hear it, “it’s a small sample size”, “it’s under a microscope”, “these guys hit .100 during stretches of the regular season too, but as a whole they are .300 hitters.” Quite frankly, I don’t care. I don’t care if you hit .235 during the regular season if you can hit .300 in the playoffs. This is where stars are made, and quite frankly, the Nationals don’t have any stars. The Nationals lineup, which I’m 100% certain will not change for Game 4 is hitting .000, .167, .100, .091, .250, .100, .000, and .250. That’s right, two players (Trea Turner and Matt Wieters) don’t even have a hit, while three others have one hit each. Absolutely pathetic. Some will point to the Cubs and say “well they aren’t hitting either”, but they are. They’re hitting when it matters. Kris Bryant is hitting. 273 and Anthony Rizzo is hitting .333 for the series driving in six of the Cubs eight runs this series. You can’t win a ballgame unless you hit and score some runs. Since 2012, the Washington Nationals are averaging 3.3 runs per game in 17 games (3.1 runs per game if you take into account that Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS went 18 innings and the Nationals scored 1 run). This includes last year’s series against the Dodgers where the bats did come alive somewhat and we scored 4.8 runs per game. Take that series out and the number goes down to 2.66 runs per game in 12 games. The Nationals aren’t the only ones facing playoff pitching at this point in the year, but they are sure as hell the only ones who are scared of hitting playoff pitching at this point in the year.

Not scoring is the number one reason the Washington Nationals will not advance past the Divisional Round for the fourth straight try. Dusty Baker is the other reason why they will not advance. I’m going to hear it for this one too, “managers are just a scapegoat, the players need to perform.” Hey, guess what, like I said above, I DON’T CARE. If this team were losing 8-0, it wouldn’t be Dusty’s fault and Dusty would be a scapegoat. But in tie games and games decided by one run, the manager’s decisions are pivotal to the outcome of a game. A good manager goes unnoticed, a lot like a good umpire. The Nationals have never had what I would consider a good manager. Dusty Baker will never be able to explain to me or to any Nationals fan for that matter why not once, not twice, but three times he decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo with the game on the line. Rizzo burned him all three times. It’s inexcusable. Dusty’s reasoning was that Willson Contreras, who was on deck, could also burn the Nationals. Sure, Dusty. I guess technically that’s true. Just like Joe Maddon could have sent Kyle Hendricks up as a pinch hitter for Willson Contreras and he could have driven a run in! It could technically happen! But if you look at Willson’s career numbers against the Nationals bullpen, he is 0 for 5 with a strikeout, collectively, against Matt Albers, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Enny Romero, and Sammy Solis. Literally take your choice of any of those guys, and you give yourself a better shot at winning than if you face Anthony Rizzo. Instead, Dusty continues to manage like it’s 1985 and go to his lefty lefty matchup instead of looking at the statistics and the splits. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker never has and never will win a World Series.

The Biggest Blow Yet

It’s bad...real bad. Let me try to talk you off the ledge though, because it sounds worse than it really is. Oh and for once, I’m not talking about the bullpen. I'll try my best to completely ignore the bullpen because at the end of the day, what more could we possibly say about this flaming dumpster fire that hasn’t already been said. No, what I’m talking about is the Nationals lineup, which has been getting knocked around all season, but to date, it may have just taken its biggest blow.

Losing Adam Eaton for the season in late April was a tough loss, but Michael A. Taylor has filled in admirably. The thought process was, if the lineup stays in tact minus Eaton, and Taylor can hit around .250, that the Nationals would be fine. But to lose Eaton and Turner now for an extended period of time is a big blow. Not many teams would be able to lose their top two hitters in the lineup to injury and continue to score runs at a high level, the Nationals included. So, here’s where we are:

Nationals lineup Opening Day                       Nationals possible lineup June 30^th

Turner                                                              Taylor

Eaton                                                               Goodwin

Harper                                                             Harper

Murphy                                                           Zimmerman

Zimmerman                                                     Murphy

Werth                                                              Rendon

Drew (Rendon was hurt)                                Drew

Wieters                                                            Wieters

If Dusty wanted to go way outside the box, he could move Rendon to the leadoff spot and leave Goodwin hitting second and Taylor hitting eighth. Rendon sees a lot of pitches and although he has more power than the prototypical leadoff man, his OBP is sky high at .402 right now. This lineup still looks deep and should have no problem surviving until Turner comes back (assuming Taylor keeps hitting), hopefully in the beginning of September. The biggest issue now is that our once deep bench is now a below average bench. Dusty can still call on Lind as his top pinch hitter, but past Lind, his options are Difo, Raburn, Lobaton, and newly called up Adrian Sanchez.

Here’s the thing though, this lineup and bench only have to survive for about a week and a half before some help arrives. Jayson Werth is expected to return after the All-Star break, so that would move Goodwin to the bench, providing some much needed depth there. It also deepens the lineup. As good as Goodwin has been, Werth has an ability to see a bunch of pitches each at bat, along with his .367 OBP this year is something you ideally want in your leadoff man. Once Werth is back, expect to see him in the leadoff spot and then maybe see Rendon in the two hole.

If for some reason Mike Rizzo decides that he needs to go acquire a shortstop, he can do that. There should be plenty available with Jed Lowry, Eduardo Nunez, and Zack Cozart topping the list. I know I said I wouldn’t talk about the bullpen, but I can’t help myself – the beauty of making a trade for any of those three shortstops is that each of those teams has a closer or a reliever that would significantly improve the Nationals bullpen. Oakland has Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, San Francisco has Mark Melancon, and Cincinnati has Drew Storen. Yeah, I’m completely kidding, Cincinnati has Raisel Iglesias.

Ideally, Mike Rizzo goes to Oakland first and tries to get Lowry, Doolittle, AND Madson. Why? A couple of reasons, but the biggest reason being the Nationals would acquire three players in this deal who are controllable after this year if they want them. Lowry is the only one with a club option, which is valued at $6 million, or it can be bought out for $1 million. Doolittle can’t become a free agent until 2020 and Madson will not be a free agent until after the 2018 season. It’s a move that helps the bullpen not only this year, but for the next couple of years without completely restricting the payroll.

Each of these deals would present complications though too. San Francisco looks like the best trade partner on paper. Nunez plays shortstop, can leadoff, and steals lots of bases. He could potentially fill right in for Turner until he returns. Melancon came to the Nationals in a deadline deal last year and did a fantastic job. The issue is, Melancon is owed another $53 million over the next three seasons and he has hit the disabled list twice this season. The Lerners don’t want to spend $500,000 to improve this team, so how would anybody convince them to take on $53 million? Not going to happen.

The issue with Cincinnati is Raisel Iglesias is young and under team control through the 2020 season. Not to mention, Cozart is having an All Star season at shortstop. The cost to acquire both of these guys is probably going to be too rich for Mike Rizzo to swallow. I would assume it would include either Victor Robles or Erick Fedde and then another 2-3 prospects on top of that. Rizzo is going to try to get through the trade deadline without giving up Robles or Fedde, but it’s going to be tough.

My best guess is Mike Rizzo approaches Billy Beane about Lowry, Madson, and Doolittle, but unless the Athletics are willing to send some money to the Nationals, I don’t know that it works. Something like Jed Lowry, Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and $6 million in return for Juan Soto, Sheldon Neuse, A.J. Cole, and Brian Goodwin could work, but who knows if the A’s will bite on sending the cash back. It would give the A’s a Major League ready outfielder and some rotation depth (remember that Billy Beane traded for A.J. Cole before, so he must like him) as well as two of the Nationals top six prospects. If the Nationals can’t work the deal with the A’s, look for them to try and get David Robertson from the White Sox for a couple of mid-level prospects and some cash and then add a utility player in a smaller deal to help fill the void on the bench until Turner returns. 

Who is the Real Problem?

We all knew it was going to happen, I just don’t think we knew it was going to be this bad. Even worse is it’s going to continue until Mike Rizzo is given the go ahead to actually solve the problem. I don’t think I’ve written a blog this year where the bullpen was not the center of discussion. The Nationals have lost a Major League leading 5 games when entering the 9th inning with a lead. In the past 3 games alone, the Nationals bullpen has given up 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Every single one of those runs was given up in the 8th innings or later and the Nationals, unsurprisingly, are 0-3 in that stretch. The starters are gassed. Dusty Baker feels like he has no choice but to ride them as long as he can, most times into the 7th or 8th inning. Who can fix it though? Who can make this right? Unfortunately, only one or two people can. I’ll give you a hint: it’s not Mike Rizzo and it’s not Dusty Baker.

Ted Lerner is worth an estimated $5.5 billion, making him the 3rd richest owner in baseball. The Nationals as a team, have the 9th highest payroll in baseball coming in at approximately $170.5 million. By no means, are the Lerners cheap, as evidenced by the 7 year $210 million contract given to Max Scherzer or the 7 year $175 million contract given to Stephen Strasburg (even including the substantial deferrals). The Lerners are however extremely finicky about where they spend their money. Any Scott Boras client can just have a blank check. A manager? Nice try, the Lerners think they can find somebody who can do just as good a job for half the money. After all, the product is on the field and not in the dugout, right? Wrong. I’m not going to go any further into the Dusty Baker contract situation. Ultimately, he’s going to get an extension at close to market value (probably about double what he is making now). This is, however, a prime example of the Lerners thinking when it comes to spending on this team.

A little under a month ago, Bob Nightengale from USA Today wrote that the Nationals and the Chicago White Sox had worked out a trade that would have brought closer David Robertson to Washington before Spring Training started. Now, before we go into specifics, lets recall that going into Spring Training, the Nationals didn’t have a closer. This would have brought back a bona fide closer. I’m not saying he’s on the level of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Mark Melancon. I am saying though, that this is a guy who has closed games for 4+ years. A guy who has been to the playoffs. A guy who has pitched in and won a World Series. The Nationals would have sent Jesus Luzardo and Drew Ward, their number 10 and 12 prospects, respectively, to the White Sox in exchange for David Robertson and approximately $12.5 million. Luzardo has not pitched ONE day in the Minor Leagues because he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. The Lerners axed this deal because David Robertson was owed $25 million over the next two years. Of that $25 million, the White Sox were willing to pay half. The Lerners weren’t content with highway robbery though, they wanted more. They refused to pick up the remaining $12.5 million over two years that would have been on David Robertson’s contract. Mind you, they will be paying Rafael Soriano $2 million per year from next year until 2024, but why pay for a player who may actually help you bring a World Series to Washington?

The Lerners are a problem. I can’t go so far as to say they are bad owners, there are plenty of those out there, but they surely are hindering this team from taking the next step. Mike Rizzo is doing his job as best he can. He’s trying to work out a solution for this bullpen. But as a GM, how are you supposed to convince a team not to ask for Victor Robles or Erick Fedde in a trade AND pick up the entire salary of the reliever they are trading? You can’t, it’s impossible. If you want to point to the MASN dispute as a reason for the unwillingness to increase the payroll midseason, that’s fine, but I’m not having it. This team is profitable with or without the increase in TV revenue. By no means are the Lerners hurting for cash. The only ones hurting for anything are the 17 guys on this team playing their asses off night in and night out only to see the 8-man circus out in the bullpen come in and blow another game.

So, what do you do when you have uncooperative owners and a bullpen that just flat out sucks? I wish I had the answer. I wish Dusty Baker or Mike Rizzo had the answer. I guess you just continue to ride it out and hope that somebody in the bullpen eventually steps up. Going on 2 ½ months of this nightmare makes it unlikely that somebody in the bullpen will just suddenly flip a switch, but stranger things have happened. You could just keep bringing minor leaguers up in hopes that one or two of them give you quality innings and get outs. Or, a very unconventional idea, is to use a rotating starting pitcher as your closer. Whichever starter is scheduled to throw his bullpen that day would become the team’s closer for the game. Sure, it’s extremely bizarre, but until this mess gets sorted out, it may just work.

Oddly enough, one man who probably could fix the problem immediately is Scott Boras, which is just plain sad. If Boras walked into Ted Lerner’s office and told him you need to trade for a closer, he would OK the next deal that Mike Rizzo came to him with. The obsession that the Lerners have with Scott Boras is borderline disturbing, especially because the Lerners will ignore suggestions from their own GM, and then turn around and listen to an agent who has no association with the team. But hey, on the bright side, Boras is Bryce Harper’s agent and as we all know, Harper is a free agent after next season.

Oh – and for the 100^th time this year, please trade for some bullpen help.

Do We Really Have to Talk About the Bullpen Again?

Here’s the thing, I don’t want to consistently talk about how bad the bullpen is. The Nationals are 17-9, so while we should be talking about the success of this team and how great the lineup looks, it’s tough to do so when such an integral part of this team is struggling so badly.

The bullpen holds a 5-4 record, thanks in large part to the Nationals lineup, which is averaging 6.65 runs per game through the first 26 games of the year. That 5-4 record is about the only thing respectable about what the Nationals bullpen has done so far this year. The bullpen ranks 28^th (out of 30 teams) in bullpen ERA, 26^th in batting average against, and 26^th in homeruns allowed. The Nationals bullpen has given up 16 homeruns in just under 76 innings pitched. For comparison, Nationals starting pitchers have given up 19 homeruns in 160 innings pitched. One thing the Nationals bullpen has done well is limited the number of walks they’ve issued. The Nationals bullpen has surprisingly issued the least amount of walks of any bullpen in the Majors. I say surprisingly because it seems like every time the bullpen comes in, they either walk the leadoff man or give up a leadoff hit, but that doesn’t seem to be the case when you look at the numbers. There is one caveat to this stat though, the Nationals bullpen has thrown the third least innings in the Majors (although they’ve played one more game than the team with the second least and two more games than the team with the least).

Trust me, it’s a good thing they’ve thrown such a low number of innings. Starting pitchers are going deep into games, which is great. The main reason they’ve thrown such a few number of innings though (and we touched on this before) is because Dusty Baker doesn’t trust anybody in the bullpen to get him outs. Case and point, last night, Tanner Roark threw 125 pitches to get through 6 innings. Dusty Baker admitted after the game that he didn’t necessarily want Tanner to throw that many pitches, but he didn’t have a choice. His reasoning was because some of the guys in the bullpen were unavailable. I repeat, they were unavailable. After an off day. An off day that followed a day where the offense put up 23 runs, where four relievers were used, two of whom pitched last night. If you want to tell me that Matt Albers was unavailable last night because he pitched two innings on Sunday, then fine, I’ll take that. Who in the world could have been unavailable to pitch after an off day. Blake Treinen pitched on Sunday and then pitched yesterday, so he wasn’t unavailable. Joe Blanton pitched on Sunday and then pitched yesterday, so he wasn’t unavailable. The only other reliever who pitched Sunday besides these three, was Oliver Perez, who warmed up twice last night, so again, he wasn’t unavailable. It’s baffling. Truly baffling, that a bullpen who has thrown the third fewest innings in the Majors, coming off an off day, had two relievers who were unavailable. Part of the problem was instead of bringing up a fresh reliever to take Joe Ross’s roster spot, the Nationals brought up A.J. Cole, who is serving a 3 game suspension for something that happened last season. That meant he’s useless, and Jacob Turner, who is scheduled to start on Saturday, was useless as well. So, you essentially have four pitchers who are “unavailable”, which led to Dusty Baker having to use Blake Treinen, who works as fast as a turtle and is statistically the second worst reliever in the Nationals bullpen, and Joe Blanton, who is statistically the worst reliever in the bullpen, in a one run game. Shockingly, that didn’t work out so well.

I could write for the rest of the day about the struggles of the bullpen, but that isn’t going to change anything. So, where do we go from here? Well, Mike Rizzo continues to publicly state that he likes the bullpen and these guys have a track record and they’ll come around. I seriously doubt, unless he’s going blind, that he actually believes that. Will some guys come around? Of course they will, but to depend on every single one of these guys coming around, that’s just ludicrous. There are some guys in AAA that can help this team, mainly Austin Adams (who we received for Danny Espinosa) and Neal Cotts, who has had a solid start to the season in AAA. If Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker don’t think these guys will help, then it’s time to start looking at relievers on the trade market. David Robertson is still available, Kelvin Herrera will be available soon, if he isn’t already. These are two guys with proven track records that can right the ship.

In other news, Joe Ross was demoted on Monday to AAA following two awful starts, where he wasn’t able to get out of the fourth inning. Hopefully Ross gets it together in AAA, but if not, we may see Erick Fedde sooner than we thought. Jacob Turner, although he has pretty good stuff, has a terrible track record in the Majors, so I seriously doubt that all of a sudden he is going to become a reliable starting pitcher. Although the Nationals and Joe Ross are denying it, there is a chance that Ross is hurt. His velocity has been noticeably down his past two starts and his slider, which is his out pitch, isn’t sliding.

I’m still too distraught to fully talk about Adam Eaton. The lineup looked unstoppable with Eaton in there. The double steals that we saw last night from the top of the Diamondbacks order is exactly what we would have seen from Turner and Eaton. That will have to wait until next year though. It’s time for Michael A Taylor to step up. Again. If I were a betting man, I’d say the Nationals will either have Andrew Stevenson (the Nationals 2015 second round pick, currently in AAA) starting in centerfield by August 1, or they will have traded for a new centerfielder. Michael Taylor is Danny Espinosa, except he strikes out more. The Nationals just rid themselves of Danny Espinosa, but now his clone is right back in the lineup. Espinosa struck out 28% of his career at bats, Michael Taylor has topped that and struck out in 32% of his career at bats. That’s just not going to work. He plays exceptional defense, but unless he’s figured out how to make more contact, I just don’t see him holding on to the everyday job.

Just keep winning and all of this becomes a moot point. In the midst of winning some games, if the bullpen happens to settle down and Mike Rizzo makes a move to get a stud reliever, that would be much appreciated. Finish the home stand strong against Arizona, then go grab a few wins in Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Shawn Kelley or Koda Glover?

I didn’t want to start my first post of the season out by rambling on and on about how bad the Nationals bullpen is. So, I decided instead to look back at my previous post to see how I felt about it, and of course, I found what all Nationals fans including myself already knew, the bullpen is, as I put it in my last post (on December 9, 2016 mind you), a dumpster fire. There’s no way around it. There are some normally reliable guys out there struggling, sure, but for all intents and purposes, the “deepest bullpen in Nationals history” is turning out to be one of the worst bullpens in Nationals history.

Dusty Baker told you all you need to know about the Nationals bullpen last night. In the top of the 7^th inning, with Max Scherzer at 102 pitches through six innings, Dusty decided to let Scherzer hit for himself. This was Scherzer’s third start of the season, and Dusty was already going to let him go 110-115+ pitches. I don’t care what anybody says, Dusty didn’t do that because he wanted to or because Scherzer talked him into letting him stay in the game. He did that because he had to. At the time, the Nationals had a 2-0 lead and Dusty didn’t trust that his bullpen could go out there and get him nine outs before they give up two or more runs, and quite frankly, why would he? At this point in the season, in a close game where the Nationals are leading, Dusty only trusts two relievers (Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover – Joe Blanton is on the cusp, but has been giving up too many homeruns to make the list right now and Sammy Solis is also on the border). He went with Solis in the 8^th inning last night, with Koda Glover ready to come in if/when Solis got into trouble, which may seem a little odd since Shawn Kelley is the set-up man. It’s actually not odd at all though, because it shows that Dusty doesn’t trust Blake Treinen. Shawn Kelley didn’t pitch the 8^th inning last night because Dusty needed him to be ready for the 9^th. It’s the same reason that the Nationals set-up man wasn’t used to relieve Gio Gonzalez on Sunday in the 8^th inning. Koda Glover came in instead because Dusty knew that Treinen was going to handle the 9^th and he needed Kelley to be ready to put out any fires.

So it looks like we’re back to where we started. Is Koda Glover going to close, or is Shawn Kelley going to close? Honestly, those were the Nationals two best options from the beginning. Blake Treinen is a great pitcher to have in your bullpen. He can come in with runners on and get a ground ball to get out of a jam. Blake Treinen is not a closer though. For some reason, the front office got this notion in their head that Blake Treinen needs to close, but I don’t know that Dusty Baker was ever fully behind that decision. If it were up to Dusty, a guy who is notorious for going with veterans over rookies mind you, he would have opened the year with Koda Glover as his closer. At this point though, Shawn Kelley has earned it. He’s been thrown into back to back bases loaded jams in the 9^th inning that his friend Blake Treinen started and both times he’s gotten out of it unscathed. Koda Glover can settle in as the new set-up man knowing that in a year or two the closers job will be his (assuming he’s successful as the set-up man).

On another note, the Nationals need to clear a roster spot for Joe Ross before tonight’s game. One thing they can’t do, is send Blake Treinen down to AAA. His confidence is already shot, you can’t send him down to work out his problems, just keep him up and let him ease back into pitching in high leverage situations. He was too valuable to the bullpen last year and he still has the stuff to come in and get valuable outs late in the game. The two candidates to get DFA’d are Matt Albers and Henry Rodriguez Enny Romero. Albers has thrown three scoreless innings for the Nationals since he got called up two weeks ago, while Romero has shown he can hit 100 mph on the radar guns, but not much else. My guess is Romero gets designated and Albers stays.

I won’t even bother addressing C.B. Bucknor’s debacle of a performance last night. He’s a complete disaster and always has been. If Enny Romero had any control over that 100 mph fastball, then he could do the rest of the league a favor and throw it right at Bucknor’s knee cap, but he doesn’t. Maybe Romero and Bucknor will reunite in AAA this year instead.

At the end of the day, the Nationals are 8-5 and in first place through the first 13 games of the season. We will see Joe Ross for the first time tonight and Trea Turner’s return should not be too far behind. Although the bullpen is a total mess, things are looking up for this team. They are in the midst of a brutal road trip which started in Atlanta, will go to New York next (including playing the Sunday night game), then on to Colorado for four games, then back to DC to play the Mets again starting next Friday night. Quite frankly, a 5-5 road trip followed by the Nats taking two of three from the Mets back in DC has to be the goal. That would leave the Nationals at 15-11 at the end of April. Anything better is a bonus, just don’t get swept in New York or in Colorado.

The Story of Adam Eaton and The Empty Closer's Role

After letting the Adam Eaton trade sink in for a couple days, I've come to terms with the trade and I've actually come to like it. Initially, I, like most Nationals fans, screamed YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. In fact, some Nationals fans may still feel that way, I however, am no longer one of them. The Nationals gave up top prospects, Lucas Giolito (the #3 rated prospect in all of baseball), Reynaldo Lopez (the #38 rated prospect in all of baseball), and Dane Dunning (one of the Nationals 2016 first round picks) for Adam Eaton. If you had asked me last week if I'd trade Lucas Giolito straight up for Adam Eaton, I probably would have said no. Now, I'm coming around on the fact that Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning all got dealt for Eaton.

So what did the Nationals really give up? They gave up a whole lot of potential, and even more uncertainty. Lucas Giolito was supposed to be a staple in the rotation possibly as early as next year. In his six start stint in the Majors last year though, Giolito was extremely underwhelming. Fans and scouts were left wondering where Giolito's 95+ MPH (sometimes touching 99-100) fastball went. Giolito was hitting 92-93 on the radar guns, but never topped out higher than 95 MPH. He had a big sweeping curveball, but he was very hittable. He finished his six game campaign with a 6.75 ERA. Is that reason to give up on your top prospect? No, not at all, but if you're looking to win now, then maybe it is. The Nationals window to win a championship may be closing and there truly isn't time for Giolito to figure it out in the Majors on the fly. Giolito had to be used as a trade chip this offseason before his stock fell even further.

Trading Reynaldo Lopez stung. That one was a tougher pill to swallow than dealing Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez has a fastball that touches triple digits and was even selected to the playoff roster because of the dominant stuff that he possesses. He went 5-3 in eleven Major League outings this year with a 4.91 ERA. The ERA still leaves a lot to be desired, but he's 22 years old. He still has some developing to do and he showed that he has swing and miss stuff. I figured that best case scenario, Lopez would step into the rotation this upcoming year and be the third starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for years to come. Worst case scenario, Lopez could become a dominant reliever with his overpowering fastball and ridiculous curveball. Lopez is by far the best piece the White Sox received in this trade. Dane Dunning is somewhat of an unknown. He could be a back end starter in the Major Leagues, or he could be a solid reliever, depending on how he develops and what the White Sox want from him. The Nationals were developing him as a reliever, which seems to be what he is best suited for.

So what did the Nationals get in Adam Eaton, then? The Nationals got an undercover stud. Wait, scratch that, the Nationals got a cheap undercover stud. Eaton has never made an All Star game, but he probably should have made two of three by now. In his three years with the White Sox, Eaton hit .290, with an on base percentage of .362, averaged 10 home runs per year (although he hit 14 in 2015 and 14 again in 2016), led the American League in triples two of the three years, and stole 16 bags per year. Oh, and the guy who finished third in the National League in triples despite only playing in 73 games, yeah he's going to be hitting either in front of or behind Eaton. What about his defense, you ask? He was statistically the best right fielder in the American League last year. Sure, he's going to be moving back to center field this year, where he played two of his three seasons for the White Sox. In 2015, Eaton had a rough year in center, mainly because of injuries, so the White Sox moved him to right. Eaton is a fully capable center fielder though, he has an above average arm and has great range. Did I mention he's cheap and controllable? He's under contract for another five years for a total of $38.4 million. I'm sure that was music to Ted Lerner's ears after seeing what kind of money has already been thrown around this offseason.

The biggest problem as a result of this trade though has yet to be addressed. The Nationals have now addressed catcher and center field. Those are two of the three positions which needed to be addressed this offseason, but there is still a huge gaping hole at closer and not a whole lot of money to be spent. The Nationals didn't want to pay Mark Melancon $60 plus million to resign, and although it appears they are in the Kenley Jansen sweepstakes, it doesn't seem likely that they will pay $80+ million to sign him. In my prior post, I suggested Melancon might get four years and $50 million, I was way off, which puts the Nationals in a tough spot. The Nationals are already fairly close to topping out their budget and they've traded two of their three top prospects. Trading Danny Espinosa (which seems highly possibly with Eaton on board) would free up about $6 million. So assuming the Nationals have about $10-12 million to work with for the remainder of the offseason, they could go a couple of different directions. The best option at this point is to sign former Royals closer, Greg Holland to a two year $10 million deal with incentives, then turn around and also sign Brad Ziegler to a one year $4 million deal. This leaves the Nationals with some extra cash to resign infielder Stephen Drew for $3-4 million. It also gives the Nationals Greg Holland, who was once a dominant closer for the Kansas City Royals before getting injured, and Brad Ziegler, who is a great reliever and who also has closing experience in the event that Holland flames out.

Rizzo may have made his biggest move of the offseason already, but he still has a lot of work to do before Spring Training begins. The lineup looks just as good, if not better than it was last year with the addition of Eaton, but the back end of the bullpen looks like a dumpster fire.

Offseason Plan

I had an end of the year blog all typed up and ready to post about a month ago. Then I said to myself "why am I even going to post this", the title of the blog said it all. It read "Same Stuff Different Year" and if you're a Nationals fan, you didn't even have to read the article to know what I meant by that. It was an even year, the Nationals won the division, and then flopped in the playoffs. Just as they did in 2012 (although the thought of Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS still scars Nationals fans to this day), and in 2014 as well.

The difference between this team and Matt Williams' 2014 Nationals was this team was dealing with significant injuries and this team fought hard. When you lose your number two starter, who would be an ace on many teams, and your starting catcher, who hit .307 and 22 homers for you, your chances of winning a championship take a real hit. When you lose them both in September, not only do your chances take a real hit, but your team morale takes a real hit as well. The Nationals fought though, they took the series to five games. Most of all, when they went down 4-1 in the 7th inning of Game 5, they fought back. The Nationals of 2014 were gutless. They would have rolled over and lost 4-1. Sure, a loss is a loss, but when guys are making contact and fighting, it's a lot easier to watch than when guys are striking out and wondering when their tee time is the following day.

Enough about this past season though. It's time to look ahead to 2017 and what this team needs to do to not only win the division again next year, but to advance in the playoffs. There are no glaring holes in this team per se, but there are areas that need to be addressed. The Nationals need a closer, they need a center fielder or a shortstop, and they need a catcher. As always, there are dream scenarios and there are realistic scenarios. My dream scenario is that the Nationals re-sign Mark Melancon who becomes the setup man, sign Kenley Jansen who becomes the closer, sign Dexter Fowler to play center field (which means Trea Turner becomes the shortstop), and then re-sign Wilson Ramos. We know Ramos will be out to begin the season, but he's the best available catcher this offseason and if the Nationals can get him on a two or three year deal, I think they should do it and just start the season with Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino behind the plate. The problem with this plan is it would require the Nationals to dish out around $200 million in contracts this offseason. With the MASN dispute still being an issue, that's just not going to happen.

A realistic idea of what may happen, though, does include a few players from my dream scenario. I think the Nationals have to end up with either Mark Melancon or Kenley Jansen. I don't see them signing both, and being that Melancon will be the cheaper of the two, I'm going to say they end up resigning him for somewhere in the neighborhood of four years $50 million. Statistically, Melancon is right on par with Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, so to be able to get him for about half the cost of the other two would be a great deal for the Nationals. Center field and catcher are going to be a bit trickier.

The Nationals don't necessarily have to address center field this year. They could wait until next year when Lorenzo Cain is a free agent and then go after him. The problem with waiting though, is you're committing to another year of Danny Espinosa at shortstop. You're also going into next offseason with a hole in left field and center field because Jayson Werth is going to be a free agent, and the assumption is, once Danny Espinosa is traded this offseason or leaves via free agency next year, Trea Turner will take over at short stop. By signing Dexter Fowler to a three or four year deal, you move Trea to shortstop this season, and your outfield is set. Not only that, but having Fowler and Trea at the top of the lineup could create some real problems for other teams. Although the Nationals have been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, I think that Fowler is the better investment. He's a better fielder, will come cheaper, and is a better fit with the team. The last option is to stay in house and either hang on to Ben Revere, or let Revere go, do nothing else, and go into next season with Werth in left, Trea in center, Bryce in right, and Brian Goodwin as your fourth outfielder. That's the worst of the options and also the least likely. I don't know that Mike Rizzo will sign Fowler, but if he doesn't, expect him to make a trade to acquire an outfielder.

That brings us to the dilemma at catcher. Prior to Wilson Ramos's injury, the Nationals definitely would have extended a Qualifying Offer and probably would have tried to resign Wilson. Since the injury, it's a whole different story, the Nationals didn't extend the Qualifying Offer, and the Nationals may not be willing to meet Wilson's asking price since he won't be ready for the start of next year and there are questions as to how his legs are going to hold up. There are some catching options out there, led by the Orioles' Matt Wieters, but I don't see the Nationals going that route. The Nationals will most likely make a trade here. Brian McCann is an option, as is Derek Norris, but Rizzo's biggest target should be Stephen Vogt of the Athletics.

Mike Rizzo and Billy Beane have worked numerous deals together, so there's no doubt that they could get together here and make a deal. The question is going to be, what is Beane's asking price for his 32 year old catcher who still has four years of team control left? If I were Beane, the asking price would be high, and if I'm Mike Rizzo, depending on how high the asking price is (obviously no Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, or Victor Robles), I'd probably be willing to meet it. Vogt is an extremely versatile, left handed hitting catcher. Vogt doesn't only play catcher, he has played first base and both corner outfield positions throughout his career. This is a guy who isn't going to cost you a whole lot being that he is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and is going to bring some pop to the lineup. He is a .255 career hitter and has hit 32 home runs over the past two years. The only red flag is Vogt is a .264 career hitter against right handed pitching and a .215 career hitter against left handers, so this could turn into a platoon behind the plate where Severino plays against lefties and Vogt plays against righties.

There are obviously more moves to be made with the bullpen and bench, but those will come sporadically throughout the offseason and some may even come in house. By adding Melancon, Fowler, and Vogt, the Nationals would put themselves in prime position to compete for a World Series Championship without breaking the bank. By splurging to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals would spend all of their money on one player without addressing their other needs. It seems like a no brainer to me, and in the end, I think it will be a no brainer to Mike Rizzo as well.