July 31st

After 2 straight losses, they're back to .500 at 45-45. They're 3-6 in July. They finished June 9-16. The arrow is pointing down, but these next 6 games before the All-Star break may very well decide whether or not the Nationals are buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Nationals started this "easy" 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets with a 3-2 record. Not good. These are bad teams. They needed an 8-3 stretch here, so that means a 5-1 finish to the first half. Not impossible, but surely not likely based on how the starting rotation is pitching. The starters finished June with a cumulative 3-14 record and a 5.54 ERA. Not to be outdone, they've started July with a 1-4 record and a 7.98 ERA. They're not getting it done. They're not giving the team a chance to win. Tanner Roark is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA over his past 5 starts and Gio Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA over his past 5 starts.

The bats are not completely off the hook, but, they're putting up 5.56 runs per game so far in July, which is coming off a June where we saw them hit .238 and average 4 runs per game. That does take into account the 14 run outburst on Thursday and the 18 run outburst on Saturday, but it's an improvement from June, nonetheless. But, when you're allowing 6.22 runs per game and start every game in a 3-0 hole, you put an already struggling offense in a terrible situation. I'm not sure what the solution is right now. The already taxed bullpen can't catch a break because the starters can't get through the 4th inning. A bullpen with no clear long reliever can only take so much abuse before it falters. For now, it would be reasonable to expect Jefry Rodriguez get sent back down so the Nationals can call a fresh arm up, most likely Sammy Solis, Wander Suero or Trevor Gott. On Saturday, the Nationals will need a 5th starter again, which will most likely be Austin Voth. We can only hope we've seen the last of Jefry Rodriguez for the year. If we haven't, it means this team is in big trouble.

At 45-45, the Nationals are 5.5 games out of first place and 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Unless they fall 9 or 10 games back, the Nationals aren't going to sell at the deadline. Even then, they still might not sell. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it's been how this team operates ever since they made the playoffs in 2012. In 2013, when they were 11 games out with a 52-56 record at the end of July and they didn't sell.

Aside from winning games, the Nationals need to do something they haven't done at the trade deadline since they've become buyers. They need to acquire a starting pitcher. Some of the names that have been tossed around are J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi. All of those are rental players, but two other rental players that nobody seems to be talking about are Garrett Richards and Lance Lynn. The Angels are currently 11 games out of a playoff spot and the Twins are 8.5 games out. Both are going to be sellers. If Garrett Richards becomes available, he probably will be the most sought after starting pitcher on the market. Although he has a history of injuries, Richards owns a 3.52 career ERA and a 5-4 record through 15 starts this year with a 3.42 ERA. Lynn on the other hand, has a 6-7 record through 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA. The 5.21 ERA leaves a lot to be desired, but Lynn has given the Twins quality starts in 7 of his past 12 starts and aside from his July 1st start against the Cubs, he hasn't given up more than 4 earned runs in a start since April. Lynn could definitely benefit from a switch back to the National League. The other positive with Lynn is that he most likely wouldn't cost too much. The Twins still owe Lynn a little over $5 million, so if the Nationals assume most or all of that salary, the Twins will most likely take a mid-level prospect in return. Lance Lynn for Brigham Hill, who was the Nationals 5th round pick in 2017 and 18th best prospect, could be enough to get a deal done. Acquiring Richards would probably require a top 10 prospect, along with a lesser prospect. That price could prove to be too high, especially if the team is still floundering towards the end of July.

First thing's first - play well, finish 5-1 and head into the break at 50-46. It won't be enough to take over first place or take over a wild card spot, but it'll be enough to stay in the hunt, especially with a pivotal 3 game series with the Braves coming right out of the break. Pitch well, put some runs on the board and finish the first half strong.

Dead in the Water

The Nationals finished May with a 32-23 record, which was good for 1/2 game out of first place. Since then, they've gone 10-17, they're 6-15 over their past 21 games, with their lone series win being against the Orioles. They now sit 2 games above .500, 6 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. It's a similar position to the one that the 2013 Nationals were in. Those Nationals were 42-40, 6 games behind the Braves and 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card position. Those Nationals had a 10-16 July, where they finished 52-56, 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games behind the Braves.

Interestingly, the 2013 Nationals and 2018 Nationals have a lot in common. Not a whole lot of hitting, but very solid pitching. The 2013 Nationals averaged 4.05 runs per game, hit .251 and had an OPS of .710. The 2018 Nationals average 4.24 runs per game, hit .239 with an OPS of .715. The pitching was just as close, with the 2013 Nationals having a staff ERA of 3.59 and the 2018 Nationals sitting at 3.67. The 2013 Nationals finished with a 86-76 record. They finished 11 games behind the Braves and 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. The way the 2018 Nationals look right now, they'd be lucky to win 86 games. 

You can only harp on the same things so many times, last year it was the bullpen, this year it's the bats. The Nationals top hitter with runners in scoring position so far this season? That would be Max Scherzer who is 5 for 12, good for a .412 batting average. Andrew Stevenson is second, going 5 for 13. Matt Adams is third, hitting .357, going 15 for 42 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals have gone 4-11 without Matt Adams. They're averaging 3.93 runs per game in his absence, and yes, that includes a 17 run outburst on Friday night. Bryce Harper is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, while Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto are both hitting .259. Those numbers aren't horrible, but they surely aren't good. None of your middle of the order bats are hitting over .260 with runners in scoring position. If you want some good comparables, Freddie Freeman is hitting .389 with runners in scoring position, Jose Altuve is at .379, Nolan Arenado is at .354. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have star potential, but they're hitting over .100 points lower than some of the top players in the league with runners in scoring position. Hitting .300+ with runners in scoring position is your only way to drive in 100+ runs in this league. It's tough to win when you rely so heavily on the long ball, hence the 9-16 June record. The Nationals hit 20 home runs in June, which was good for 25th in the Majors. Of those 20 home runs in June, 7 of them were hit on Friday night. 

So, what do you do now? I don't know. Continue breaking the season down into little pieces. You're in the middle of a tougher stretch here with 4 against the Phillies and now 3 against the Red Sox. You're 1-3 so far, so you're probably looking at a 2-5 stretch now. Win 1 against the Red Sox and you're 43-42 headed into an 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets to end the first half. The only acceptable way to finish the first half against those 3 would be by going at least 8-3, hopefully better. At 51-45, you at least give yourself a chance in the second half. Anything worse and you may have put yourself in a hole that you can't dig out of.

Time to Hold Somebody Accountable

Kevin Long was supposed to be the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long is not in fact the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long was given the keys to a fairly loaded lineup, anchored by a superstar and a couple of All-Stars. Kevin Long's work (or lack thereof) may have in fact solidified him as the worst hitting coach in all of Major League Baseball. Kevin Long should not be boarding a plane with the Washington Nationals to head to Philadelphia today. On Monday, July 22, 2013, the Washington Nationals fired hitting coach Rick Eckstein. At that time, the Nationals were hitting .241 and averaging 3.69 runs per game through 98 games. This year's Washington Nationals are hitting .239 and are averaging 4.14 runs per game through 78 games. They have been shut out in 10% their games this season, or 8 times in 78 games. That's the exact amount the 2013 Nationals had been shutout through 78 games and one more time than the Nationals were shutout through the entirety of last season, though it took this Nationals team less than half the time to accomplish that feat.

Kevin Long loves "launch angle". He wants you to hit home runs. That sounds like a lot of fun. Except, the Washington Nationals have hit 85 home runs this year, good for 18th in the Major Leagues in that category. So, if they're not hitting for average and they're not hitting for power, how are they scoring? Well, they're not! In fact, the Nationals have scored a National League low 78 runs in their 22 games in June and haven't scored in over 18 innings of baseball.

Since going from the Yankees to the Mets prior to the 2013 season, only one of Long's teams have cracked the top 20 in MLB in team batting average or OPS, and that was last year's Mets who hit .250, which was good for 19th in the league, with an OPS of .755, which was good for 14th in the league. This is his style. It doesn't work and it hasn't worked for quite some time now. Some people say that batting average is a tired statistic and it doesn't matter all that much anymore. Not me. The 2015 Kansas City Royals finished the year 3rd in the league in batting average, hitting .269. The 2016 Chicago Cubs, the only team in the past 3 years to finish outside of the top 10 in the league, finished the year 14th in batting average, hitting .256 (.17 points higher than this year's Nationals, mind you). The 2017 Houston Astros finished the year last year first in batting average, at .282 and first in OPS, at .823. The Nationals are 22nd in the league in batting average and 19th in OPS. You can't win if you don't get on base. You can't win if you don't score.

If the season ended today, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo would all three finish with the lowest batting averages of their careers. If Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman qualified, they too would finish with the worst batting averages of their careers. When one or two guys have a down year, you just chalk it up to bad luck. When three or more guys are having down years, you can begin to questions the philosophy.

This is not a good fit. Quit trying to make it work. Cut ties here before he can get his paws on Juan Soto's perfect swing and great plate discipline. 

Stuck in Mediocrity

The Nationals are stuck in mediocrity. At least until they can get fully healthy. Some of you may look at the Nationals 37-31 record and say "how can you say the Nationals are mediocre, they're in second place and only a few games out of first?". It's pretty simple really, while the Nationals have done a spectacular job of treading water, going periods of time without Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Matt Wieters in the lineup, it's been just that. Treading water.

If you look at the schedule that the Nationals have played so far this year, they're 10-9 against good teams (teams 5+ games over .500), they're 12-16 against average teams (teams between 5 games under and 5 games over .500) and they're 15-6 against bad teams (teams 5 games or more below .500). You've got to beat the bad teams, which they are doing. Especially right now, when you've got a depleted rotation and a lineup that just isn't getting the job done. If you want to be considered better than mediocre, you have to be better than 12-16 against the other mediocre teams in the league. This past weekend, the Nationals went to Toronto and got swept by a Blue Jays team who had won only 5 of their past 15 games, 4 of those wins coming in a 4 game sweep of the 20-50 Orioles. It was a pathetic display of baseball to say the least.

Right now, this team is missing 2/5 of their rotation, a key bullpen piece and they're still without their starting catcher and starting first baseman. We don't have a timeline for any of those players. The fact that Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are all hitting below .265 tells you all you need to know about the lineup. They are now 2-5 in their last 7 games, 3 of those losses were shutouts and 5 of the 7 were against teams with sub .500 records. With Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson on the disabled list, it's time for the offense to pick up the slack that the pitching staff has been carrying all season long.

Michael A Taylor now hitting .236 compared to Bryce Harper's .217. There was never a point in my life where I thought I'd tell you that Michael A Taylor deserves more playing time than Bryce Harper. Michael A plays spectacular defense to go along with his .412/.459/.588 June batting line (don't forget about the 8 stolen bases as well). Yet, he's the one in a battle for playing time because nobody wants to be the one to tell Bryce and his .146/.241/.208 June batting line that they're taking a seat on the bench. Oh, and Bryce has also struck out in 22 of his 48 June at bats. It's getting worse, not better. If you want to continue to play him everyday, that's fine, but don't continue to hit him at the top of the lineup. Hit him 7th. Treat him like a normal player who's in a slump, not like a superstar who can do no wrong.

The Nationals have 28 games left between now and the All-Star break. They have 12 games remaining against good teams, 5 games against average teams and 11 games against bad teams. A 15-13 finish to the first half would be alright. 18-10 sounds better, but when you're down 2 starting pitchers, it puts you in a tough spot, even when you're playing 11 games against so called "bad" teams. That would put the Nationals at 52-44 at the break. It may not be enough for first place, but it would put them in a good enough spot to still win the division if they can ever get healthy in the second half of the year.

I Guess the Rain Cooled Them Off?

In came the rain and out went the Nationals hot streak. The Nationals were riding a 13-2 stretch coming into last weekend's series against the Dodgers and they proceeded to get swept. Not only did they get swept, but they lost to a 17-26 Dodgers team that just went 1-6 in a 7 game stretch against the Reds and the Marlins. This wasn't about the Dodgers getting hot, this was about the Nationals playing extremely poorly. 

The Nationals went 14 for 94 this weekend against Dodgers pitching. That's good for a .149 batting average. That's against a Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers club. A team that got 2 pitches out of their starting pitcher in the second game of a doubleheader on Saturday night. The Nationals as a team are now hitting .234 on the year. Bryce Harper is hitting .224 (that's just .07 points higher than Ryan Zimmerman, who was absolutely putrid to begin the year), Anthony Rendon is hitting .247 and  Trea Turner is hitting .267, which now that Kendrick is down, leads the team. I'll let that settle in. A guy hitting .267 leads the team in batting average. 

The bullpen hasn't been able to get anybody out, showing shades of 2017. Aside from Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson (who is now on the disabled list) and Sean Doolittle, there's really nobody that you can trust out there. Wander Suero had been solid until he gave up a couple of runs yesterday, but he's still not the kind of guy you can put in high leverage situations. Carlos Torres has been almost as awful as A.J. Cole. Shawn Kelley seems to be finished, Trevor Gott has been more hittable as of late and the love affair for Sammy Solis continues to boggle my mind. Solis has been alright, but nothing more and nothing less. His inability to work a clean inning is concerning. He's a solid left-handed specialist, but righties are hitting .267 off him. 

When you have Max Scherzer leave a game with a 4-2 lead after 7 innings of work, you expect to win. But with this bullpen, they managed to lose on Saturday. The Nationals starting pitchers have a 2.96 ERA on the year. The Nationals are 24-21. That's because the team is hitting .234 and the bullpen has a cumulative 4.72 ERA. 6-7 guys are doing their job, the other 18-19 need to start doing theirs. We all know the story, the Nationals have 11 players on the disabled list. The Nationals are missing 2 middle of the lineup hitters, their starting catcher and their leadoff hitter. The Nationals are without 4 of their bullpen arms. Nobody feels bad for the Nationals. Not one person. These are the cards the Nationals were dealt this season. You can either man up and battle through it until these guys start coming off the disabled list, or you can fold. A week ago, Matt Wieters was in the starting lineup, Howie Kendrick was healthy and Ryan Madson didn't have a muscle strain. This week, we're working with a AAA lineup again and hoping to tread water until mid-June or so.

The Nationals next 9 games are against the Padres, Marlins and Orioles. Those 3 teams are a combined 51-89 on the season, which is good for a .364 winning percentage. If this were a healthy Nationals team, this would be their time to make a move. You'd aim for a 7-2 stretch or better, while picking up a couple more games on the Braves. Instead, we have to be realistic and hope that our starting pitching can continue to carry the team and maybe that's good enough for a 6-3 stretch, but 5-4 seems more realistic. Juan Soto makes his first start tonight. Let's hope Soto can kickstart a struggling offense and get Rendon and Bryce on a little bit of a roll.

Is There Any Sense of Urgency?

The effort is pitiful. The bullpen (with a 5.66 ERA) is pitiful. The fundamentals are pitiful. The only thing that has met and even possibly exceeded our expectations is the starting pitching, which sports a 3.35 ERA through 30 games, and yes, that even included new Yankee, A.J. Cole's stinker against the Braves.

The Nationals can almost field a full team of players on the DL at this point. Not only can they almost field a team, but the team they could field would probably beat the team that the Nationals are currently trotting out there every night. I get that we're working without Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy on a nightly basis. I realize that Matt Grace, Koda Glover, Joaquin Benoit (who was supposed to pitch in Glover's place) and we assume Shawn Kelley all being on the DL weakens our bullpen. Throw Brian Goodwin and Victor Robles on top of those seven and you're left wondering how you're even supposed to beat the Marlins right now. 

That doesn't mean you're allowed to play terrible baseball though. You're all still Major Leaguers and you're expected to play like it. Wilmer Difo, with runners on second and third with one out, why are you throwing home on a lightly hit line drive to third? We were conceding the run. All we asked for was an out. Luckily, the Giants didn't score again that inning, but that's bad baseball. Matt Adams, do you hate gifted RBI's? Was Chris Stratton's 91 MPH heater too much for you? When the Giants make two consecutive awful errors to put runners on second and third with one out in a one run game, you have to cash in. Simply put, it's why the Nationals lost the game. Sure, the two run home run in the bottom of the 6th put the game away, but is there a momentum shift if either Matt Adams or Matt Wieters are able to drive in those two runs in the top of the 6th? We'll never know. The Nationals literally told the Giants "no thank you" to two free runs. It's unacceptable. 

The Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more six times in 2016, with their longest losing streak at seven games. In 2017, the Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more four times, with their longest streak at four games, which happened twice. This season, the Nationals have already had losing streaks of three games or more three times, with their longest losing streak at five games. Dusty Baker is laughing somewhere, as he should be. That's not me saying I wish Dusty were back. That's just giving Dusty credit where credit is due. It's tough to get these guys not to press and to play good baseball when they're losing games and when there are so many injuries, but Dusty was able to do it. So far, Dave Martinez is not. That could change, we'll see in the coming months. 

Everybody can keep saying it's only April 24th. That's fine. Matt Williams agrees. There's always tomorrow. Tomorrow will keep coming until September 30th when the Nationals could be headed home for good. No need for any sense of urgency. Let's just tread water for the next month or so. That sounds like a lot of fun for everybody. We can be 19-25 around May 19 with the Dodgers headed to town. Why not dig a bigger hole and see if we can dig out? That way we have to finish the season on a 71-47 run to put us at 90 wins. Maybe we make the playoffs. Maybe we don't. That's a fantastic plan though because 71-47 runs happen all the time in baseball. Just keep treading boys. Can't wait to see Moises Sierra back out there in the 5 hole tonight.

No Sweep, Says Dave Martinez!

The Washington Nationals had a sweep within reach last night in New York. They headed into the series on Monday 6 games back of the division leading Mets and had a fantastic chance to cut it to 3 games. Apparently, Matt Williams....sorry, I mean Dave Martinez had other plans. With the Nationals leading 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning, Martinez summonsed Ryan Madson from the bullpen following 7 strong innings from Tanner Roark. In any normal instance, that would be the logical move. If the Nationals are winning, they go Kintzler, Madson, Doolittle. We've seen it work successfully many times before.

I said out loud last night in the 3rd inning while watching the game "It's going to be interesting to see what Dave Martinez does tonight if the Nationals are winning this game in the 7th or 8th because Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson are unavailable." Fast forward to the 8th inning and here comes Ryan Madson. The same Ryan Madson who has had two Tommy John surgeries in his career. The same Ryan Madson that Dusty Baker would constantly talk about "monitoring his workload". The same Ryan Madson who had pitched in 3 of the Nationals past 4 games, and once he entered the game last night, in 4 of the last 5. The same Ryan Madson who LEADS Major League Baseball with 11 appearances this season. Ryan Madson was set up to fail by his manager last night and there's no way around that.

We've seen more than our share of bullpen blunders over the past few years, but this one is pretty high up there. It goes:

1) Matt Williams pulling Jordan Zimmermann in a 1-0 game in the top of the 9th inning in Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS;

2) Dave Martinez's decision to bring Ryan Madson into his 4th game in 5 days in a 4-2 game in the bottom of the 8th against the Mets where a chance to cut the Mets division lead to 3 games was at stake; and

3) Pretty much every bullpen decision Matt Williams made in 2015.

So, as you can see, this decision ranks fairly high up there. Now, a lot of people believe that Dave Martinez had no choice but to use Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle this often, this early in the season. In part, I'll agree with that. The Nationals have had 1 off day in 19 games since the start of the season. That's absolutely brutal. By comparison, the Mets have had 3 off days already in 17 games (1 was a weather postponement, so they'll make that up, but the number is still 3 nonetheless). It's a lot easier to manage a bullpen with built in off days, there's absolutely no disputing that. What I will disagree with, is that Dave Martinez had to use these guys because there have been so many close games. Madson was used in 3 consecutive losing efforts to the Mets just a week and a half ago. The first of those 3 was an 8-2 loss. He hadn't pitched in 4 days at that point, so I guess that was just getting him some work. Ok, fine. The Nationals proceed to lose the next 2 games by 1 run and Madson pitched the 8th inning of each of those games to keep it close. My real gripe came Saturday against the Rockies when Madson came in to pitch during a 6-2 game. It's not a save situation, nor is it a hold situation. Nope, it's just a game that since the Nationals were winning Dave decided "well, I guess I better use Madson and Doolittle!" Two guys with a history of arm issues and you use them both in an 8-2 loss and a 6-2 win. 

Last night was one of the worst pieces of managing that I've seen in a long time. Madson was gassed. You could see it within the first two batters. Conforto singles and then after getting ahead of Cespedes, he allows him to single as well. His velocity was there, but his location and the movement on his pitches were not. Shawn Kelley was available last night. Shawn Kelley threw 6 pitches on Monday night and then didn't pitch on Tuesday. Shawn Kelley needed to pitch the 8th inning last night. Doolittle was available for the 9th following a 10 pitch save on Tuesday. Ryan Madson should not and quite frankly can not be throwing 26 pitches last night coming off an outing where he threw 21 the night before. If you're dumb enough to bring him into the game in the first place, which Dave Martinez apparently is, you have to have a quick hook. Once he gave up back to back singles, Shawn Kelley or Sammy Solis need to come into the game. Asdrubal Cabrera, who was coming up with Cespedes on first and Conforto on second, is 1 for 5 with 2 K's against Shawn Kelley in his career. Jay Bruce, who was on deck, is 1 for 3 against Kelley and 0 for 4 against Solis in his career. Todd Frazier, who was due up third, is 0 for 6 with 5 K's against Kelley and 0 for 1 with a K against Solis. These numbers were right in front of you last night. You chose to ignore them. It doesn't matter what their career numbers against Madson are because Madson was gassed and at that point was the equivalent of Jacob Turner last night throwing 96 MPH meatballs. Ryan Madson is a great pitcher who deserved better last night. In fact, the Washington Nationals deserved better. 

I can't stress enough how imperative it is that Dave Martinez not use the bullpen like he's been using it. It will end with Madson and Doolittle on the DL with elbow problems and the rest of the bullpen pitching like it did early in 2017 because there will no longer be any defined roles. If he continues to manage the bullpen like he has been, he will not be here very long. He has a 3 year $2.8 million contract. Dusty Baker made $2 million alone last year with the Nationals. If Martinez isn't getting the job done, the Lerners will not hesitate to eat $2 million and bring somebody else in who can get the job done. 

Last tidbit, Dave Martinez did make one good move last night. That was bringing in AJ Cole to a bases loaded situation to face Cespedes. Pedro Severino called for a fastball low and away, Cole threw a 93 MPH fastball a little below the letters and Cespedes belted it for a grand slam. If that was Martinez telling Mike Rizzo that AJ Cole should not be in the Major Leagues, then I applaud him. There's absolutely no reason that AJ Cole should be on the Nationals flight to Los Angeles. It's time to DFA Cole to get a fresh arm in the bullpen. You can bring Trevor Gott back up, who looked very good in his last 4 outings before being sent down. You can bring up Carlos Torres who is a veteran with a lot of Major League experience and who has some long relief experience as well. Or if you're dead set on having strictly a long reliever, you could bring Edwin Jackson back up. Two things that I know for sure though - AJ Cole is not a Major League caliber pitcher for a team with World Series aspirations and Dusty Baker is in San Francisco smiling as he watches this all unfold.