In my previous post, I said to expect the Nationals to announce some more big news in the next 7 to 10 days. Here we are about a week later and the Nationals have signed reliever Casey Janssen. Alright, not exactly the big announcement I was expecting/talking about. It's actually better. There was a glaring hole in the bullpen after Tyler Clippard was traded to Oakland and that hole will now be filled by Janssen, who has saved 81 games over the past 3 seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Monday, January 19, 2015
Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister......and Roark?
Let me start off by saying I trust anything that Mike Rizzo does. He's done enough for this organization over the past 7-8 years to earn the trust of all of the fans. With that being said, a mere two months ago, Tom Boswell wrote an article in The Washington Post quoting Rizzo's dad as telling Rizzo "don't fall in love with your own players." That's exactly what happened here. Max Scherzer was in fact drafted by Rizzo while he was with the Diamondbacks in 2006. Sure, Rizzo was here when the Nats drafted Jordan Zimmermann in the second round of the 2007 draft, but he was the assistant GM at that point, so we don't know how much say he had in this draft pick. In 2006 in Arizona, Rizzo was the Director of Scouting. Scherzer was his guy, there's no doubt about it.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Your 2015 Second Baseman - Yunel Escobar
Mike Rizzo finally made his move tonight to sure up second base for the 2015 season and possibly further. Tonight, the Washington Nationals traded set up man Tyler Clippard to the Oakland Athletics for shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar wasn't even able to set his bags down in Oakland before he was traded again. If you recall, Escobar was traded to Oakland with Ben Zobrist just last Saturday (yes, that was the same trade that included Boog Powell).
Do I like this move? Yes. Do I love this move? No. Clippard was an incredibly valuable piece of the Nats bullpen, especially last year when his ERA stood at 2.18. He was an awesome 8th inning guy and it's going to be very difficult to replace his productivity. With that being said, Clippard is projected to earn between $9-10 million this year in his final year of arbitration. That's a lot of money to pay a set up man. The part that is a bit confusing to me is that the Nationals could have resigned Asdrubal Cabrera for around the same amount of money that they are going to pay Escobar and still kept Clippard this season. Rizzo is a smart guy though and Escobar may not have been his number one option going into the offseason, but I think he had him ranked ahead of Cabrera for sure. Escobar and Cabrera have both been in the league for 8 years. Over those 8 years, Cabrera has been worth 20.7 WAR, while Escobar has been worth 23 WAR. Not a huge difference, but the bottom line is, it is a difference. Escobar is set to earn $5 million this season, $7 million next season, and he has a $7 million club option or a $1 million buyout. Rizzo traded one year of control of Clippard for potentially three years of control of Escobar at a reasonable price.
Having Escobar under team control for up to three years is big being that Ian Desmond is a free agent after this upcoming season. Trea Turner, who the Nationals just acquired from the Padres, just finished his first season of pro baseball. Chances are he won't be ready for the Majors for another two years. That means if Desmond leaves after this season, Escobar can slide over to shortstop for a year until Turner is ready. That in and of itself made it easier for Rizzo to deal Clippard here.
Escobar should be a nice addition to the Nationals lineup. He can hit for a little bit of power, he gets on base, and the best part is, he doesn't strike out that much. Over the course of his career, he's struck out 498 times over 3,913 at bats. That's just 12.7% in case you were wondering. Just for fun, lets take a look at what the Nationals lineup may look like on April 6th when they take the field against the Mets:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B
3. Jayson Werth, LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
5. Bryce Harper, RF
6. Ian Desmond, SS
7. Wilson Ramos, C
8. Yunel Escobar, 2B
9. Pitcher
Obviously, if Werth is to miss the beginning of the season, the lineup would change a good amount. If he doesn't though, that's a pretty nice lineup I'd say. Don't be surprised if Bryce moves up or down a spot in that lineup. Yup, I said it, it's finally time to give Bryce a chance at hitting cleanup.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
What Jayson Werth's Surgery Means for the Nats & Ben Zobrist Traded
We found out on Thursday that Jayson Werth needed surgery on his right shoulder and is expected to take two to three months to recover. This really shouldn't be a big deal because it's January which means according to the timetable we were given, Werth should be ready to play by March at the latest. Werth is now 35 years old though, so it's entirely possible that his recovery takes longer than three months. If Werth's recovery ends up taking longer than expected, the Nationals have a few options to fill in for Werth.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Short and Sweet
Last post of the year and it's going to be short and sweet. The Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera yesterday, meaning Ben Zobrist will most likely be moved before the start of Spring Training. In my first post I had said the Nats should go get Zobrist and suggested the Nats offer Jeff Kobernus and Jake Johansen to the Rays. The package is probably going to have to be sweeter than that to pry Zobrist from the Rays now because other teams are in on Zobrist and the Rays can turn this into a bidding war. I would estimate anywhere from 8-12 teams are actually in on Zobrist, the Nationals being one of them.
When there are that many teams in on one player, you obviously have to have the best offer to get the player you want. The Giants want Zobrist just as bad as the Nationals do, although they would want him to play third base and left field. The Giants have been known to offer top prospects for rental players (see Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran), so they may be willing to offer Andrew Susac, who is their 3rd best prospect according to MLB.com and a lesser prospect for Zobrist. If that is in fact the Giants offer, the Nats are going to need to offer one of their better prospects as well as a lesser prospect or two mid-level prospects to get Zobrist. I would offer Brian Goodwin and Jake Johansen for Zobrist. That gives the Rays a potential future center fielder as well as a back end of the rotation stater or set up man. Goodwin doesn't have a spot with the Nationals because Michael Taylor is the future center fielder in Washington and Johansen in expandable because of the amount of minor league pitching the Nats have. According to MLB.com Taylor is the Nats 7th ranked prospect and Johansen in the Nats 15th best prospect. That's two top 15 prospects in the organization for one year of control of Zobrist, That's more than fair. Another option is to give up a top 5 organizational prospect for Zobrist. Giolito is out of the question (although I'm sure he's the first player the Rays would ask for), but you could trade A.J. Cole, Michael Taylor, Eric Fedde, or Joe Ross. Taylor isn't happening because he's the Nats center fielder of the future, Fedde was just drafted, and the Rays passed on the opportunity to acquire Ross from the Padres. That leaves A.J. Cole. That's not happening either, Mike Rizzo and the Nats see a very bright future for Cole. The Nats drafted Cole, traded Cole, and then re-acquired Cole. Other teams have asked about him and been rebuffed. I would be shocked if he were dealt, especially for a rental player.
Goodwin and Johansen for Zobrist. Make it happen. If the Rays want a third prospect or even Danny Espinosa (whom they've previously had interest in), then do it. Zobrist if too good of a player to pass up on just so you can hang on to two or three prospects who may or may not make a difference two or three years down the road.
When there are that many teams in on one player, you obviously have to have the best offer to get the player you want. The Giants want Zobrist just as bad as the Nationals do, although they would want him to play third base and left field. The Giants have been known to offer top prospects for rental players (see Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran), so they may be willing to offer Andrew Susac, who is their 3rd best prospect according to MLB.com and a lesser prospect for Zobrist. If that is in fact the Giants offer, the Nats are going to need to offer one of their better prospects as well as a lesser prospect or two mid-level prospects to get Zobrist. I would offer Brian Goodwin and Jake Johansen for Zobrist. That gives the Rays a potential future center fielder as well as a back end of the rotation stater or set up man. Goodwin doesn't have a spot with the Nationals because Michael Taylor is the future center fielder in Washington and Johansen in expandable because of the amount of minor league pitching the Nats have. According to MLB.com Taylor is the Nats 7th ranked prospect and Johansen in the Nats 15th best prospect. That's two top 15 prospects in the organization for one year of control of Zobrist, That's more than fair. Another option is to give up a top 5 organizational prospect for Zobrist. Giolito is out of the question (although I'm sure he's the first player the Rays would ask for), but you could trade A.J. Cole, Michael Taylor, Eric Fedde, or Joe Ross. Taylor isn't happening because he's the Nats center fielder of the future, Fedde was just drafted, and the Rays passed on the opportunity to acquire Ross from the Padres. That leaves A.J. Cole. That's not happening either, Mike Rizzo and the Nats see a very bright future for Cole. The Nats drafted Cole, traded Cole, and then re-acquired Cole. Other teams have asked about him and been rebuffed. I would be shocked if he were dealt, especially for a rental player.
Goodwin and Johansen for Zobrist. Make it happen. If the Rays want a third prospect or even Danny Espinosa (whom they've previously had interest in), then do it. Zobrist if too good of a player to pass up on just so you can hang on to two or three prospects who may or may not make a difference two or three years down the road.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Mike Rizzo's Offseason Strategy: Be Patient
We're only about two months away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. That in itself is music to the ears, but the Nats still have some work to do. At least we think they do. In the past week though, Mike Rizzo has signed a plethora of players to Minor League contracts, with invitations to Spring Training.
Three of the signings are particularly notable, those being Heath Bell, Ian Stewart, and Dan Uggla. These signings could mean one of two things. Rizzo is either hoping that one of them can take a spot in the bullpen/second base, or he's just creating depth in the Minors. Knowing Rizzo, he's probably trying for the first option. Stewart is technically a third baseman, but he's played 33 games at second. I'm sure Rizzo isn't planning on moving Anthony Rendon from third back to second, so let's bet that Rizzo signed Stewart as a possible second base option.
Heath Bell could compete for one of the two open bullpen spots available. He hasn't exactly been reliable though over the past few years. Bell had a 7.27 ERA in Tampa last year before being released. Nats fans had to deal with Rafael Soriano for the second half of last year, who had a 6.48 ERA in the second half of 2014, so they're not too far off from each other. Bell represents a nice buy low option though. If he pitches well in the spring, you get a guy who can pitch the 6th or 7th inning for you. If he doesn't pitch well then you can stash him in the minors or just release him. Best case scenario, Bell makes the team and becomes a consistent 7th inning guy with an ERA in the 2's or low 3's. If Rizzo is looking for buy low options to fill out his bullpen though, I wouldn't mind seeing him bring in either Jesse Crain or a familiar face in Sean Burnett (or both). Both are coming off of injuries, but if you can get either or both for $1 million plus incentives, why not take a chance? Burnett played in Washington from 2009-2012 and in 245 games he had a 2.81 ERA. Plus he's a lefty, what's not to like?
Rizzo may be hoping that he can create a platoon at second base, most likely with Espinosa and Dan Uggla, but that's definitely not his best option. Espinosa clearly hits left handed pitchers better than he hits righties and Uggla over his career has hit righties better than he's hit lefties. They can both hit for power, but strike out a ton. Where can you honestly put either of these guys in your lineup? Both of them strike out in more than 27% of their plate appearances. The average Major Leaguer strikes out about 18-20%. For comparison, Ryan Zimmerman over the course of his career has struck out 19% of the time. So in a huge spot when you just need a guy to make contact and move a runner over, do you really trust Espinosa or Uggla to do that? I don't.
I get it, the team's payroll is high and these could just be options at second base and they could provide leverage in negotiations with Asdrubal Cabrera or someone else. The bottom line though, is we need somebody who is not only a good defender, but can hit. Espinosa is a great defender and a fantastic player to have on your bench, he tears left handed pitching up and that's a big asset to have coming off the bench. Cabrera over his career has struck out 19% of the time, he can hit .260 for you, and he can hit for power. Why are we waiting around, offer him a contract and let's move on.
I honestly don't see Uggla or Stewart making the team out of Spring Training (unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond are traded), but I think Stewart has the better shot of the two. He can play third (his natural position), but he can also play first and second base. Uggla doesn't offer that and he's also 35 years old. Sure you have Kevin Frandsen (although he's only under team control for one more year) who can do the same thing, but its always nice to have bench guys who are able to move around the infield for you. The 29 year old Stewart offers versatility and team control through 2017. Team control is something all GM's love. The main thing that is working against Stewart is he is basically the same player as Danny Espinosa except he's not as good of a fielder. Their offensive statistics are essentially the same, Espinosa has hit .228 in 5 Major League seasons, Stewart has hit .229 over 7 Major League Seasons. Espinosa has hit 55 home runs in 504 Major League games, Stewart has hit 61 home runs in 511 Major Leeague games. I don't know that the Nats can carry Espinosa and Stewart on the bench. There's really only one open bench spot with Kevin Frandsen, Danny Espinosa, Jose Lobaton, and Nate McLouth taking the other 4 spots. I would put my money on Tyler Moore taking that last bench spot, leaving no room for Uggla or Stewart. Moore is out of Minor League options and with Ryan Zimmerman taking over first base, they're going to need somebody to be able to handle first when Zim needs an off day or if Zim gets hurt.
On a completely unrelated topic, can we talk about the brilliance of Mike Rizzo? He trades Steven Souza, Jr. and Travis Ott, a single A pitcher taken in the 25th round in 2013 for Joe Ross and Trae Turner. Trae Turner can't officially be named in the trade since MLB rules prevent players from being traded within a year of being drafted. Turner was the Padres first round pick last June, so he will officially come to the Nationals in June of 2015. Turner will probably slot in to be the Nats 3rd best prospect behind the beast himself, Lucas Giolito, and almost Major League ready A.J. Cole. Ross is already ranked as the Nats 5th best prospect, per MLB.com.
When you really think about what was given up for what the Nationals got, you wonder how Mike Rizzo does it sometimes. Rizzo now has Giolito, Cole, and Ross in the minors, all 3 should be Major League starting pitchers within the next year or two (Cole could be ready by August or September of this year, or earlier if there is an injury). That is so crucial because Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are both free agents at the end of 2015 and Stephen Strasburg can leave after 2017. If the Nats can't extend Zimmermann (which I think they will be able to), Cole, Ross, or Giolito would be able to step right in.
Rizzo dealt Souza who is Major League ready, but doesn't have a spot with the team, for two prospects are are highly likely to make a huge impact on the team in about 2 years. Don't get me wrong, I think Souza is going to have a nice Major League career. He should be able to hit in the .275 range with 15 homers a year for the Rays. I would love to have a guy like that, but the Nats already have Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span locked into the 3 outfield spots, with Michael Taylor waiting in the wings to take over center in 2016. Getting Trae Turner is the reason this deal was made though. Shortstops are hard to come by, and Rizzo may have stolen his next shortstop from the Padres for a fairly reasonable price. Turner hit .323 through 69 games in his first year in the Minors. He also had 23 steals in 69 games, needless to say, he's quick. Really quick. With Ian Desmond set to become a free agent after 2015, the Nats now have a prospect in line to take over possibly in 2016, but more likely in 2017 (yes, that would mean the Nats would need a stop gap at shortstop for a year) if Desmond doesn't resign.
Rizzo just created some leverage for himself in Zimmermann and Desmond negotiations. Would there be some drop off if Zimmermann and Desmond left next year, absolutely. Nobody can argue that, but Rizzo is not only working to keep this years team competitive, but keep the team competitive for the next 5-10 years. It's a great trade and all Nats fans should be excited to see what Turner and Ross can bring to the team in 2016 or 2017. Now as I said in the previous post, lets go get that second baseman...
Monday, December 15, 2014
Intro, Detwiler, Harper, and Moving Forward
Baseball has always been something I've loved and followed since an early age. It's something I'm very passionate about, so I want to preface the beginning of this blog by saying I know that I have some strong opinions on some of these topics, but that's because I love the sport and I love the Nationals. I want this blog to be for the common baseball fan, without the fancy stats like oWar, dWar, isoSLG, ERA+, and BABIP. Obviously common stats like batting average (BA), earned run average (ERA), and wins above replacement (WAR - I'll explain this one further the first time it's brought up) among others. So without any further explanation and unnecessary banter, lets address a few Nats offseason topics that either have taken place in the past few days or are about to take place in the next few days.
Ross Detwiler
On Friday, the Nationals traded Ross Detwiler to the Texas Rangers for infielder Chris Bostick and relief pitcher Abel De Los Santos. I personally have mixed feelings on the trade. I'll always remember the Game 4 gem Ross pitched in the NLDS to keep the Nationals alive against the Cardinals in 2012. But after seeing him struggle last year with injuries and then this year with the questionable role he was placed in, it was probably best for he and the Nationals to move on.
Why make the move now though while you're trying to win a World Series? There were a few reasons, first was Ross is a year away from free agency and was going to cost the Nationals between 3 and 4 million this year in arbitration. That money can now be allocated elsewhere (Bryce Harper's new deal). Being that he was a year away from free agency, was going to sign somewhere else at the end of the year, and had an undefined role in the bullpen as is, Mike Rizzo decided to trade him and get a few prospects who may or may not make a difference in a few years. The Nats have a few options in AAA to replace him, so the bullpen should be fine.
In return the Nationals got the middle infield depth that they lacked in the minor leagues. Bostick is a 21 year old middle infielder who can play both 2B and shortstop (although he's better suited for 2B), he hit .251 with 11 home runs in A ball last year. De Los Santos is a 22 year old reliever who had a pretty good season in A ball throwing 51 1/3 innings, striking out 65 to the tune of a 1.92 ERA.
Bryce Harper
Bryce and the Nationals have been at odds this offseason due to a dispute about whether or not Bryce can opt out of his contract and into arbitration as a Super Two player. Bryce's current contract calls for him to earn $1.5 million next year, but through arbitration Bryce could have earned between $2.5 and 3 million. I think it's ridiculous that the Nationals were even fighting this, but what do I know. You would think that you would want to keep your potential franchise cornerstone happy, even if it means spending a few extra million over the next few years. If you want to keep him here after his contract is over, its going to be very expensive, so why piss him off now. Give him the money and move on. Early this morning, the Nationals and Bryce agreed to a two year contract for $7.5 million to avoid arbitration and hopefully avoid any future contract issues (until it's time to sign him to a new deal). The new contract calls for Bryce to be paid $2.5 million this year (thanks Ross) and $5 million next year.
In a market where Chase Headley just got 4 years for $52 million, having Bryce for 2 years at $7.5 million is a steal. I know it's a different scenario because Headley was a free agent where as Bryce is still on his rookie contract, but the point is, don't upset your so called star player over $2-3 million. Also note, Bryce isn't a free agent in two years, he is under team control through the 2018 season, but come 2016 is when Bryce will start to make big money.
Whats Next
Now it's time for Rizzo to go address the one glaring need this team currently has, second base. There aren't many options out there, whether it be in free agency or trade, but there are a few options that I like. The first option is to resign Asdrubal Cabrera. He's not opposed to coming back and playing second base even though shortstop is his preferred position. The Giants, Angels, and Athletics are three teams who could be in on him, but all come with a few question marks. Nobody knows what kind of money the Athletics have to play with right now after essentially rebuilding on the fly this offseason. The Angels are trying to cut payroll, not add it, so for that reason I think they're out. The Giants have the money and have a need at third base, but I have a feeling they're going to throw a lot of money at either James Shields or Max Scherzer and I'm not sure that they have the money for a pitcher as well as Cabrera. Jed Lowrie, the other second base/shortstop option teams were considering, signed today with the Houston Astros for three years and $23 million. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I offer Cabrera a 3 year, $24 million contract and make it clear there's not much room for negotiating. Cabrera is one year younger and a better hitter in my opinion. Offering one million more than Lowrie got is a fair offer. The Astros aren't going to be competitive, the Nationals are, so as long as winning is a priority to Cabrera, you would think accepting an $8 million per year offer would be a no brainer given the market. If Cabrera thinks he can get a better offer elsewhere, then so be it, the Nats can move onto their trade target.
We can be completely unrealistic and say somebody like Ian Kinsler should be the Nats next second baseman, but as good as he would look in the Nats lineup, that's just not going to happen. The Nats should go after Ben Zobrist though. He's in the last year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays and will earn $7.5 million and it would be the best $7.5 million the Nationals could spend this offseason. Besides the fact that Zobrist is 34 years old, there are not many negatives that can be said about the guy. He can play second base, shortstop, and the outfield. That kind of versatility is incredibly valuable for a team with World Series aspirations. Over the past 6 seasons, Zobrist has a 37.4 WAR. For comparison purposes, over those same 6 seasons, Ryan Zimmerman has a 23.5 WAR. Why would you not go after a guy like this if you can get him at your price?
That's exactly the issue, the Rays don't need to trade Zobrist. With that being said, the Rays would trade Zobrist if they were given a few prospects in return. Offering Jeff Kobernus and Jake Johansen could get a trade done. The Rays would like Kobernus because he's versatile just like Zobrist, is under team control until 2021, and is a cheaper option than Zobrist. Johansen was the Nationals second round pick in 2013, he had a 5.19 ERA in Hagerstown this past year and is ranked as the Nationals #15 prospect according to MLB.com. Johansen's ERA clearly won't blow anyone away, but he's got potential to be a back of the rotation starter or a valuable bullpen piece. For one year of control of Zobrist I think this is a more than fair offer. As for the Nationals, why would you not make this trade? Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Tyler Clippard, and Denard Span are all set to become free agents after this season. It's time to make a splash and go for it, Zobrist would make this Nationals team the most talented Nationals team of the past few years (barring a trade of Zimmermann, Desmond, Fister, etc.).
It's your move Mike Rizzo.
In a market where Chase Headley just got 4 years for $52 million, having Bryce for 2 years at $7.5 million is a steal. I know it's a different scenario because Headley was a free agent where as Bryce is still on his rookie contract, but the point is, don't upset your so called star player over $2-3 million. Also note, Bryce isn't a free agent in two years, he is under team control through the 2018 season, but come 2016 is when Bryce will start to make big money.
Whats Next
Now it's time for Rizzo to go address the one glaring need this team currently has, second base. There aren't many options out there, whether it be in free agency or trade, but there are a few options that I like. The first option is to resign Asdrubal Cabrera. He's not opposed to coming back and playing second base even though shortstop is his preferred position. The Giants, Angels, and Athletics are three teams who could be in on him, but all come with a few question marks. Nobody knows what kind of money the Athletics have to play with right now after essentially rebuilding on the fly this offseason. The Angels are trying to cut payroll, not add it, so for that reason I think they're out. The Giants have the money and have a need at third base, but I have a feeling they're going to throw a lot of money at either James Shields or Max Scherzer and I'm not sure that they have the money for a pitcher as well as Cabrera. Jed Lowrie, the other second base/shortstop option teams were considering, signed today with the Houston Astros for three years and $23 million. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I offer Cabrera a 3 year, $24 million contract and make it clear there's not much room for negotiating. Cabrera is one year younger and a better hitter in my opinion. Offering one million more than Lowrie got is a fair offer. The Astros aren't going to be competitive, the Nationals are, so as long as winning is a priority to Cabrera, you would think accepting an $8 million per year offer would be a no brainer given the market. If Cabrera thinks he can get a better offer elsewhere, then so be it, the Nats can move onto their trade target.
We can be completely unrealistic and say somebody like Ian Kinsler should be the Nats next second baseman, but as good as he would look in the Nats lineup, that's just not going to happen. The Nats should go after Ben Zobrist though. He's in the last year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays and will earn $7.5 million and it would be the best $7.5 million the Nationals could spend this offseason. Besides the fact that Zobrist is 34 years old, there are not many negatives that can be said about the guy. He can play second base, shortstop, and the outfield. That kind of versatility is incredibly valuable for a team with World Series aspirations. Over the past 6 seasons, Zobrist has a 37.4 WAR. For comparison purposes, over those same 6 seasons, Ryan Zimmerman has a 23.5 WAR. Why would you not go after a guy like this if you can get him at your price?
That's exactly the issue, the Rays don't need to trade Zobrist. With that being said, the Rays would trade Zobrist if they were given a few prospects in return. Offering Jeff Kobernus and Jake Johansen could get a trade done. The Rays would like Kobernus because he's versatile just like Zobrist, is under team control until 2021, and is a cheaper option than Zobrist. Johansen was the Nationals second round pick in 2013, he had a 5.19 ERA in Hagerstown this past year and is ranked as the Nationals #15 prospect according to MLB.com. Johansen's ERA clearly won't blow anyone away, but he's got potential to be a back of the rotation starter or a valuable bullpen piece. For one year of control of Zobrist I think this is a more than fair offer. As for the Nationals, why would you not make this trade? Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Tyler Clippard, and Denard Span are all set to become free agents after this season. It's time to make a splash and go for it, Zobrist would make this Nationals team the most talented Nationals team of the past few years (barring a trade of Zimmermann, Desmond, Fister, etc.).
It's your move Mike Rizzo.
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