It's the end of April, I get that. For those who say April baseball doesn't matter though, you're wrong. Every game counts. The Nationals game on September 12th against Miami means no more than tomorrow's game against Atlanta. A win is a win, they all count the same in the standings whether it's April or September. That's why a 7-12 record through 19 games is a bit alarming. However, I'm not saying the Nationals are in trouble by any means. That's where the fact that it's only April does matter. There are still 143 games left in the season. If this were September 12th and the Nats were 7 1/2 games back of the Mets, then we're in some trouble. The fact of the matter is, the Nationals are 7 1/2 games back of a hot Mets team who has won 12 of 13 and is 14-4 to start the season. The Nationals have struggled through their first 19 games, partially due to injuries, but mostly due to bullpen mismanagement, lack of focus/concentration (poor defense), and not being able to get a timely hit. It's not panic time. It won't be panic time until late June or early July if the Nationals are still hovering around .500. Remember the Brewers last year? They were 21-9 through their first 30 games with a 6 game lead over the Cardinals in early May. They finished in 3rd place at 82-80 and 8 games behind the Cardinals. It's a long season and we only have a small sample size right now. With that being said, there are some things that need to get worked out very soon.
Hitting:
I'm going to specifically use Thursday's game against the Cardinals as a prime example of what us Nats fans have become accustomed to. What is even more frustrating is the fact that this scenario happened twice. In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the fourth, the Nats had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. After a great at bat by Clint Robinson where he fought off some pitches a drew a walk, Yunel Escobar comes up and first pitch swinging, grounds into a double play. The next batter, Jose Lobaton, strikes out. Inning over, no runs. Don't worry, that wasn't all. In the bottom of the 8th after a fielding debacle that gave the Cardinals a 4-1 lead, the Nats came up to bat and got their first two runners on. Let's just think about this for a second, you're the Nationals, you're losing 4-1. The pitcher just walked Bryce Harper on 5 pitches. You have 1st and 2nd, no outs and you want to keep the line moving because you need base runners if you want to get back into this game. Naturally, Ryan Zimmerman comes up first pitch swinging at a ball that was out of the zone and grounds into another double play. Next batter, Clint Robinson, lines out to center field. He hit the ball well and with one out, it may have scored the runner, but the double play ended any chance of scoring that inning.
Let me take you back two innings to the top of the 6th. In a 1-1 game, the Cardinals get a two out single from Jason Heyward, then Matt Holiday gets hit by a pitch. First and second with two outs. Two outs, not zero, but TWO! Matt Adams comes up and singles Heyward in. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball at manufacturing runs. That's why they are consistently in the playoffs and consistently in the World Series conversation. The Nationals don't do that. Most hitters in the Nationals lineup see two on and nobody out and say "Wow, we could really use a three run homer here." Well sure we could, everybody could, but that's not logical. How about you concentrate on making contact, preferably into the outfield so runners can at least tag, maybe even fight a pitch off for a bloop single? Time and time again, the Nationals get guys in scoring position with less than 2 outs and don't score. The Giants and Cardinals don't do that, they find ways to get the runners in and that's how each year they win playoff series.
Bullpen (Mis)Management:
For those of you that I talk to on a daily basis about the Nationals, you would think I don't like Matt Williams at all. That's not entirely true. I do think he knows what he's doing and he preaches the right things to this team and he handles the players the right way. The one area where I think he has no clue what he's doing, is managing a bullpen.
Most managers now a days have an "A" bullpen and a "B" bullpen as former Nationals manager Davey Johnson once put it. The "A" bullpen are your 3-4 best relievers, they're your 7th inning guy, lefty specialist, set-up man, and closer. Your "B" bullpen are the remaining 3-4 guys in the bullpen, it may be your long reliever, it may be a another lefty specialist, it may be a kid you just called up from the minors that you need to eat some innings. The Nationals actually have a very easy bullpen to manage. There are 3 members of the bullpen who have been in the Major Leagues for two seasons. Those 3 happen to be 3 of the Nationals 4 best relievers and they are Matt Thornton, Drew Storen, and Tanner Roark. The fourth is Aaron Barrett, who is just now in his second year. That leaves Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, and Rafael Martin. Your "A" bullpen is Thornton, Storen, Barrett, and Roark (Roark is a tough one though because he's also your long reliever so he can be a "B" bullpen guy as well). There is absolutely no reason that if you're winning (especially by less than 4), tied, or losing by 1 that any of the "B" bullpen guys see the mound. Unless you're in the 12th inning and you're out of pitchers, there's just no reason for it.
In a tie game on Wednesday night against the Cardinals, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen. It cost the Nationals the game. Blake Treinen gave up the eventual winning run in the 8th inning. On Friday, April 10th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen in a 1-0 game. Xavier Cedeno (who has since been traded to the Dodgers) gave up the lead, the Nationals lost 4-1. The following night, Saturday, April 11th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen again with a 2-0 lead. Blake Treinen gave up two runs, the Nationals lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Tuesday April 14th, Matt Williams has a 7-5 lead in Boston, he goes with his "B" bullpen, let's Blake Treinen throw exactly 10 warm up pitches, Treinen gives up the lead and the Nats lose 8-7.
Those are 4 examples of games that the Nationals lost after entering the 7th inning or later with a lead. The Nationals are 7-12, so lets say instead of going 0-4 in those games, Matt Williams uses his head in two of them, goes with his "A" bullpen and the Nats go 2-2. Instead of 7-12, the Nationals are now 9-10. If he used his head in all 4 of those games and went with his "A" bullpen, the Nats could be 11-8. Those losses aren't completely on Williams, there was bad defense, we should have scored more runs in some of them, etc., but with better bullpen management, I guarantee we would have won at least one of those games, most likely two or three of them.
I'm going to lay this out so that nobody can screw it up, here is the formula:
-If you are winning by less than 4, tied, or losing by 1 in the 7th inning, you use Matt Thornton or Tanner Roark in the 7th (depending on matchups), Aaron Barrett in the 8th, and Drew Storen in the 9th.
-If you are winning by 4 runs or more, or you are losing by more than 1 run, I don't care what you do, as long as you don't use any of the 4 relievers named above. It's that simple.
Hilarious Defense:
Even with good pitching though, you need a competent defense behind you. The Nationals don't have that. There were two plays this week that I don't even know if a high school team would make. On Thursday, Mark Reynolds rocked a ball to right center field. On the throw in, Danny Espinosa sailed a ball over Jose Lobaton's head, so in return Aaron Barrett chucked it into center field. He was trying to throw Reynolds out at second, but Reynolds was already on his way to third, so I don't know if his judgment is questionable or if his eyesight needs to be checked. That was just one of two plays that made me cringe. Today, the Nationals were able to pull off a play that made me consider throwing my TV off the balcony. With two outs in the 5th inning of a 1-0 game, the Marlins loaded the bases on an Ichiro Suzuki single. Giancarlo Stanton pulled some questionable base running moves by rounding 3rd too far and running home. The Nats were going to get out of the inning due to a Marlins mistake. Wilson Ramos had other plans though, he decided he was going to challenge Stanton to a foot race back to third instead of throw the ball to Yunel Esobar who was waiting at third to tag Stanton out. Ramos gave the Marlins a second chance and like good teams do, they got a big hit, cleared the bases, and took a 3-1 lead.
Now let's try and win a few series in a row considering the only series the Nats have won all year is against the 7-12 Phillies. The Nats blew it this weekend and got swept by the Marlins, so they have the Braves and Mets on the road before heading back home for another home stand. I'd love to see the Nats go 5-2 or 6-1 in these next 7 games before heading home. Based on the hilariously awful baseball they've been playing though, I'll take 4-3. Actually, they're on a 5 game losing streak, so how about this: just win ONE game. One game where they play fundamentally sound baseball, get timely hits, use the bullpen how it should be used, and get a win. That's all I ask at this point.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Picking Up Right Where They Left Off
Well, this isn't exactly how any of us saw the first two series of the season playing out. The first five games have been full of costly errors, lousy hitting, average relief pitching, excellent starting pitching, and a few questionable decisions. The hitting has been by far the biggest issue through the first give game into the season. At points its almost been unwatchable. It's like I'm re-watching the Nationals play the Giants in the playoffs last year. Bottom line, you can't win baseball games 1-0 or 2-1 every night, and that's what the Nationals are trying to do right now.
I understand that the lineup is missing its 1 through 3 hitters, but the guys who are in the lineup because of injuries are still expected to be Major League hitters. None of us have seen that so far. Michael Taylor has been the best of the bunch and he's a rookie so he is the player I expected the least production out of. Don't get me wrong, we've seen Taylor struggle, (he's struck out 7 times in just 21 at bats) but he's also shown flashes of how good he can be. Second base has been a black hole where Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa have combined to go 3 for 18 to start the season. One of those hits came from Espinosa who was curiously hitting left handed last night, which is odd because everybody was under the assumption that he was strictly hitting right handed now. Regardless, 3 for 18 isn't going to cut it and neither is the 2 for 16 that we've seen out of the left fielders. The major culprit there is Tyler Moore, who I'm rooting for, but 0 for 10 is abysmal.
At a time where we needed our star players to show up, they've gone missing, just like last October. Ryan Zimmerman, although he's played a good first base so far, is 2 for 19 from the clean up spot. Just as bad, Ian Desmond is 3 for 18. The difference between the two is Zimmerman is playing solid defense, Desmond is making costly error after costly error. If it weren't for bad defense, the Nationals would most likely have at least one, maybe two more wins under their belt. The poor starting rotation through their first time through the rotation has a 1.99 ERA. They're 1-3 on the year.
Quick side rant regarding the game on Friday against the Phillies: In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the 7th inning, Gio was still pitching. I'm fine with that, but Gio proceeded to walk two and then hit a batter, so he left with the bases loaded and one out. First of all, we all know that Gio has some control issues. He pitched a gem, but when you send him back out there for the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, you need one or two of your best relievers warming up in the pen to come in if Gio runs into trouble. Aaron Barrett and Matt Thornton should have been warming up. Instead, Matt Williams let Gio pitch into trouble and he's left in one batter too late (possibly two depending on how short of a string you want to have). As soon as Gio walked that second batter though, he was done. He never should have even been in the game to hit Andres Blanco and load the bases. Second problem, it's still a 1-0 game. We hadn't given up the lead yet and double play gets you out of the inning with a 1-0 lead. So who comes in? Xavier Cedeno. What? If you needed a lefty in that situation don't you think Thornton is your guy? He's your best left handed reliever. You also could have gone with Barrett who is a ground ball and strike out pitcher. Instead, Cedeno comes in, promptly gives up a two run single and then hits Ben Revere. What an outing. Another wasted quality start and Gio is charged with 3 runs that probably should have never happened.
Dan Kolko pointed out last night that scoring throughout the league has been down through the first five games of the year, down almost a full run from last year. That's great and all, but on average teams were still scoring nearly 4 runs per game this year. The Nationals have scored 9 runs TOTAL, which is lowest in the Major Leagues and they're hitting .183 as a team, again, lowest in the Majors. Those stat lines are eerily similar to those of last October when the Nats hit .164 and scored 9 runs in 4 games. It's a very small sample size, so we can't get too worked up about it, but at the same time, the Nationals schedule was very favorable early in the season. The Nationals have proceeded to drop the first two series because they can't score and now are staring at a sweep to the projected last place and possibly worst team in baseball, the Phillies.
Going into Boston at 1-5 or 2-4 isn't how we wanted this to start, but its the position we're in now. Nothing you can do about it. We have to start hitting though or this could get really ugly. As I said when we signed Scherzer, it doesn't matter how great your starting pitching is unless you can score some runs. Our starting pitching has been as good as advertised, but I don't care if we have 5 guys that are as good as Clayton Kershaw in our rotation, we aren't going to win games 1-0 every day. Werth is expected back sometime this week, which will be a huge boost. The schedule gets tougher though with 6 of the next 10 against the Red Sox and then the Cardinals. Now is as good a time as any to start hitting and working counts. Let's get a win today and then worry about trying to win a series in Boston.
I understand that the lineup is missing its 1 through 3 hitters, but the guys who are in the lineup because of injuries are still expected to be Major League hitters. None of us have seen that so far. Michael Taylor has been the best of the bunch and he's a rookie so he is the player I expected the least production out of. Don't get me wrong, we've seen Taylor struggle, (he's struck out 7 times in just 21 at bats) but he's also shown flashes of how good he can be. Second base has been a black hole where Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa have combined to go 3 for 18 to start the season. One of those hits came from Espinosa who was curiously hitting left handed last night, which is odd because everybody was under the assumption that he was strictly hitting right handed now. Regardless, 3 for 18 isn't going to cut it and neither is the 2 for 16 that we've seen out of the left fielders. The major culprit there is Tyler Moore, who I'm rooting for, but 0 for 10 is abysmal.
At a time where we needed our star players to show up, they've gone missing, just like last October. Ryan Zimmerman, although he's played a good first base so far, is 2 for 19 from the clean up spot. Just as bad, Ian Desmond is 3 for 18. The difference between the two is Zimmerman is playing solid defense, Desmond is making costly error after costly error. If it weren't for bad defense, the Nationals would most likely have at least one, maybe two more wins under their belt. The poor starting rotation through their first time through the rotation has a 1.99 ERA. They're 1-3 on the year.
Quick side rant regarding the game on Friday against the Phillies: In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the 7th inning, Gio was still pitching. I'm fine with that, but Gio proceeded to walk two and then hit a batter, so he left with the bases loaded and one out. First of all, we all know that Gio has some control issues. He pitched a gem, but when you send him back out there for the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, you need one or two of your best relievers warming up in the pen to come in if Gio runs into trouble. Aaron Barrett and Matt Thornton should have been warming up. Instead, Matt Williams let Gio pitch into trouble and he's left in one batter too late (possibly two depending on how short of a string you want to have). As soon as Gio walked that second batter though, he was done. He never should have even been in the game to hit Andres Blanco and load the bases. Second problem, it's still a 1-0 game. We hadn't given up the lead yet and double play gets you out of the inning with a 1-0 lead. So who comes in? Xavier Cedeno. What? If you needed a lefty in that situation don't you think Thornton is your guy? He's your best left handed reliever. You also could have gone with Barrett who is a ground ball and strike out pitcher. Instead, Cedeno comes in, promptly gives up a two run single and then hits Ben Revere. What an outing. Another wasted quality start and Gio is charged with 3 runs that probably should have never happened.
Dan Kolko pointed out last night that scoring throughout the league has been down through the first five games of the year, down almost a full run from last year. That's great and all, but on average teams were still scoring nearly 4 runs per game this year. The Nationals have scored 9 runs TOTAL, which is lowest in the Major Leagues and they're hitting .183 as a team, again, lowest in the Majors. Those stat lines are eerily similar to those of last October when the Nats hit .164 and scored 9 runs in 4 games. It's a very small sample size, so we can't get too worked up about it, but at the same time, the Nationals schedule was very favorable early in the season. The Nationals have proceeded to drop the first two series because they can't score and now are staring at a sweep to the projected last place and possibly worst team in baseball, the Phillies.
Going into Boston at 1-5 or 2-4 isn't how we wanted this to start, but its the position we're in now. Nothing you can do about it. We have to start hitting though or this could get really ugly. As I said when we signed Scherzer, it doesn't matter how great your starting pitching is unless you can score some runs. Our starting pitching has been as good as advertised, but I don't care if we have 5 guys that are as good as Clayton Kershaw in our rotation, we aren't going to win games 1-0 every day. Werth is expected back sometime this week, which will be a huge boost. The schedule gets tougher though with 6 of the next 10 against the Red Sox and then the Cardinals. Now is as good a time as any to start hitting and working counts. Let's get a win today and then worry about trying to win a series in Boston.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Disabled List and Final Roster
We're five days away from Opening Day now and we already know that we will be without two of our starting three outfielders and our starting third baseman to open the season. Not to mention that Nate McLouth is still banged up and Casey Janssen may head to the disabled list as well. Not exactly how we wanted to start the year, but injuries happen and there's nothing you can do about it. I'd much rather be without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth in April than be without them in October for the playoffs. Knowing that the Nationals will be without Span, Werth, and Rendon to open the season, here is how the final roster may play out.
Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.
Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.
Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker
Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark
Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.
Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.
Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker
Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Extension, Anyone?
Spring Training is officially underway, with all pitchers, catchers, and position players having had to report by today. The next month or so is going to be slow but exciting. New players are getting to know the team, while older players are enjoying their time back together. We're going to get to see a few players this Spring that will be with the Nats "next wave" of players. The one we all want to see however, won't be at big league camp. Lucas Giolito will again be on a restricted innings limit this season and to try and limit distractions, Giolito will be preparing for the season in Minor League camp. There's no doubt that he will get a Spring Training invitation next year though with a strong shot of making the team if Doug Fister and/or Jordan Zimmermann leave via free agency.
The Nationals have 8 players on their current 25 man roster that will be free agents next offseason, four of them stand to be huge loses if the team can not resign them. Those four are Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. Two of those four have already made it known that if they do not agree to a new deal before the end of Spring Training, there will be no more negotiating and they will become free agents following the season. Those two are Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, two of the most important players on the team.
The Nationals projected payroll for the 2015 season is $162 million, which is a franchise record. The Nationals obviously won't have a payroll that high from here on out, which makes it so great that the Lerners have agreed to go all in with this team this year and keep everyone together. With that being said, almost $54 million will be coming off the books next year if all eight of those players depart via free agency. That would put the Nationals payroll at about $108 million (not taking into consideration raises in arbitration). That's not going to happen. I would estimate that on a normal season the Nationals are going to operate with a payroll around $130-140 million, as they did last year. Since the Nationals structured Max Scherzer's deal with a ton of deferrals, it means that the team has the money to spend going into next year. So what do they do with that money?
They could hypothetically try to extend other players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. They're all Scott Boras clients though, so unless Mike Rizzo wrote into Max Scherzer's mega deal that Boras had to negotiate with the Nationals on extending Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it's just not going to happen. Boras wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value, which is bad news for the Nationals. With that being said, the Nationals need to work hard to extend Ian Desmond within the next month to month and a half.
The value Desmond brings to this team is seen on and off the field. He's clearly one of the team leaders and he's a top 3 shortstop in the Major Leagues and if you don't think so, then feel free to list off all of the shortstops in the league who have had 20/20 seasons each of the past three years. I'll give you a hint, there weren't any. It's not going to be cheap to extend Desmond by any means, but it will most likely be way cheaper than extending Zimmermann. What would it take? Probably something like 5 years for $115 million could get the job done. He's on a one year, $11 million deal for this upcoming season, so the total value of the contract would go to 6 years for $126 million. That's the exact value of Jayson Werth's deal, but its one year less than Werth's deal. Speaking of Werth, his deal would come off the books in 2018, which would be just 2 years into Desmond's extension. So the point is, the Nationals can absolutely make the finances work. Some people may say, well Troy Tulowitzki's extension was for 6 years and $118 million, why would Desmond get more? It's simple, Desmond can stay on the field, Tulo can't. Even if Tulo is the better hitter, he's played 47, 126, and 91 games over the past three seasons. Desmond has played in 130, 158, and 154 the past three seasons. The deal would make Desmond the highest paid shortstop in the Majors. Desmond always said that he wants a deal that's fair and that isn't going to screw over the next guy in line for a contract. In order to do that, he needs to top Elvis Andrus's ludicrous deal that the Texas Rangers drunkenly gave him which was 8 years and $118 million. This proposed deal would top that in everything except for length of the contract, which isn't a fair comparison because Andrus is 3 years younger than Desmond, so obviously his deal would be longer. It's tough to hammer something out when there are time restraints and everybody is trying to get ready for the season, but this is a deal that has to be done. Sure Trea Turner is coming over from the Padres this summer to be the Nationals shortstop of the future, but by having Desmond resigned, you have your middle infield set for the next 6 years. Desmond will play shortstop until either 1) his contract runs out, or 2) Turner provides better defense at short than Desmond.
Yes, this scenario means Zimmermann would walk after the 2015 season. It's extremely tough to let somebody like Jordan Zimmermann walk away and only receive a draft pick back, but the moment Max Scherzer signed here, it was the only possible ending. Zimmermann's price tag is a bit higher than the 6 years and $155 million that Jon Lester got, but a bit lower than the 7 years and $210 million that Scherzer got. There is no way any team other than maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can justify having two pitchers on their roster with contracts over $150 million. The Nationals are deep in pitching in the Minor Leagues with A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, and others waiting in the wings. Tanner Roark is also sitting here waiting for his next opportunity to start after turning in a 15 win season with a 2.85 ERA in 2014.
There are a lot of tough decisions that Mike Rizzo has to make over the next month or so, but there's no doubt in my mind that he needs to get a Desmond extension done. You can lock him up now for around $125-130 million, but if you wait until he hits free agency, especially after a good year, you may be paying $150 million or higher and that's most likely not in the budget. Make it happen, lock Desmond up, and as much as I love Jordan Zimmermann playing for the Nationals, it's time to say goodbye because this will be his last season wearing a curly W.
The Nationals have 8 players on their current 25 man roster that will be free agents next offseason, four of them stand to be huge loses if the team can not resign them. Those four are Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. Two of those four have already made it known that if they do not agree to a new deal before the end of Spring Training, there will be no more negotiating and they will become free agents following the season. Those two are Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, two of the most important players on the team.
The Nationals projected payroll for the 2015 season is $162 million, which is a franchise record. The Nationals obviously won't have a payroll that high from here on out, which makes it so great that the Lerners have agreed to go all in with this team this year and keep everyone together. With that being said, almost $54 million will be coming off the books next year if all eight of those players depart via free agency. That would put the Nationals payroll at about $108 million (not taking into consideration raises in arbitration). That's not going to happen. I would estimate that on a normal season the Nationals are going to operate with a payroll around $130-140 million, as they did last year. Since the Nationals structured Max Scherzer's deal with a ton of deferrals, it means that the team has the money to spend going into next year. So what do they do with that money?
They could hypothetically try to extend other players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. They're all Scott Boras clients though, so unless Mike Rizzo wrote into Max Scherzer's mega deal that Boras had to negotiate with the Nationals on extending Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it's just not going to happen. Boras wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value, which is bad news for the Nationals. With that being said, the Nationals need to work hard to extend Ian Desmond within the next month to month and a half.
The value Desmond brings to this team is seen on and off the field. He's clearly one of the team leaders and he's a top 3 shortstop in the Major Leagues and if you don't think so, then feel free to list off all of the shortstops in the league who have had 20/20 seasons each of the past three years. I'll give you a hint, there weren't any. It's not going to be cheap to extend Desmond by any means, but it will most likely be way cheaper than extending Zimmermann. What would it take? Probably something like 5 years for $115 million could get the job done. He's on a one year, $11 million deal for this upcoming season, so the total value of the contract would go to 6 years for $126 million. That's the exact value of Jayson Werth's deal, but its one year less than Werth's deal. Speaking of Werth, his deal would come off the books in 2018, which would be just 2 years into Desmond's extension. So the point is, the Nationals can absolutely make the finances work. Some people may say, well Troy Tulowitzki's extension was for 6 years and $118 million, why would Desmond get more? It's simple, Desmond can stay on the field, Tulo can't. Even if Tulo is the better hitter, he's played 47, 126, and 91 games over the past three seasons. Desmond has played in 130, 158, and 154 the past three seasons. The deal would make Desmond the highest paid shortstop in the Majors. Desmond always said that he wants a deal that's fair and that isn't going to screw over the next guy in line for a contract. In order to do that, he needs to top Elvis Andrus's ludicrous deal that the Texas Rangers drunkenly gave him which was 8 years and $118 million. This proposed deal would top that in everything except for length of the contract, which isn't a fair comparison because Andrus is 3 years younger than Desmond, so obviously his deal would be longer. It's tough to hammer something out when there are time restraints and everybody is trying to get ready for the season, but this is a deal that has to be done. Sure Trea Turner is coming over from the Padres this summer to be the Nationals shortstop of the future, but by having Desmond resigned, you have your middle infield set for the next 6 years. Desmond will play shortstop until either 1) his contract runs out, or 2) Turner provides better defense at short than Desmond.
Yes, this scenario means Zimmermann would walk after the 2015 season. It's extremely tough to let somebody like Jordan Zimmermann walk away and only receive a draft pick back, but the moment Max Scherzer signed here, it was the only possible ending. Zimmermann's price tag is a bit higher than the 6 years and $155 million that Jon Lester got, but a bit lower than the 7 years and $210 million that Scherzer got. There is no way any team other than maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can justify having two pitchers on their roster with contracts over $150 million. The Nationals are deep in pitching in the Minor Leagues with A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, and others waiting in the wings. Tanner Roark is also sitting here waiting for his next opportunity to start after turning in a 15 win season with a 2.85 ERA in 2014.
There are a lot of tough decisions that Mike Rizzo has to make over the next month or so, but there's no doubt in my mind that he needs to get a Desmond extension done. You can lock him up now for around $125-130 million, but if you wait until he hits free agency, especially after a good year, you may be paying $150 million or higher and that's most likely not in the budget. Make it happen, lock Desmond up, and as much as I love Jordan Zimmermann playing for the Nationals, it's time to say goodbye because this will be his last season wearing a curly W.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Bright Future...Even With Most Arrogant, Least Likable Werth
Around this time of year, while not much else is going on, MLB.com and a few other websites put out their farm system rankings. Based on most of these rankings, the Nationals appear to be in good shape, with the only knock on their farm system being that they lack depth. The Nationals top prospects though are good, really good. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor, A.J. Cole, and Trea Turner (even though he's still listed as a Padres prospect) all made MLB.com's list of the top 100 prospects. Giolito ranked as the best right handed pitching prospect in the game. Being that the Nationals already have the best rotation in the Major Leagues, is it really fair that they also have the top prospect? Well, 15 other teams passed on Giolito, so yeah, it's more than fair.
Bleacher Report ranks the Nationals farm system as the 11th best in baseball and Sporting News actually put them a bit higher and made them the 8th best farm system. Mike Rizzo has done a great job not only making sure that the team is competitive now, but also will be competitive in the future. That's an incredibly tough thing to do and its what makes teams like the Cardinals competitive year in and year out. When Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals in 2010, it signaled that the Nationals were ready to start competing. At that time, the Nationals had the 15th ranked farm system in baseball and that was with Bryce Harper among others in the minors. The group they have in the minors right now is ranked even higher than that. The Major League team they're fielding right now is expected to be one of the best in baseball. That's awfully impressive.
Speaking of Jayson Werth, I don't know if you heard or not, but "Werth is one of the most arrogant, least likable athletes in sports". Also, "Jayson Werth is one of the least likable athletes in the history of Washington D.C.". At least according to John Feinstein. With that being said, this is the most asinine, meaningless comment Feinstein may have ever made. Oh, Werth doesn't treat you well? Oh, I'm sorry. Werth's job isn't to talk to you and be friendly with you. His job is to play baseball. He wasn't signed to a 7 year $126 million contract because he's nice to the media. He was signed because he's a good baseball player, he's won before, and he's a good guy in the clubhouse. If Werth hits .280 with 15+ home runs a year, I don't care if he talks to the media once or if he talks 162 times, that's his decision. I don't know when part of an athlete's job became talking to the media and playing nice with all the reporters, but it's ridiculous.
I'm fine with the manager having a post game press conference and answering questions about what happened during the game, why he made one decision instead of another, etc. But why should Werth be criticized for not wanting to talk to the media after losing 3-2 in game 4 of the NLDS? Did you want to ask him about what was running through his mind in the top of the 8th inning when he popped out? Who cares. You wanted to know if he thought the team could come back from the 3-2 deficit after Aaron Barrett's wild pitch? Once again, who cares. I promise, you can find enough to write about without getting a quote from Werth about how the team played hard and competed but came up short. It's the same generic answer after a loss every time, so the bottom line is, it shouldn't matter. Sure the fact that Aaron Barrett, a rookie, stuck around to answer questions was admirable, but that was his decision. It doesn't make me like him any more or like Werth any less. I'm astounded that Werth could be declared one of the least likable athletes in sports. I get it, going 105 MPH in a 55 MPH zone is completely unacceptable, completely unsafe, and sets an awful example. If that along with Werth leaving the clubhouse after Game 4 are the main reasons he's one of the least likable players, then people need to get a grip. There are a number of athletes who don't talk to the media (Marshawn Lynch being one of them, although he does so in a hilarious manner), but I guess since Werth didn't want to talk to John Feinstein or any of his buddies after losing a tough elimination game in the playoffs, he's now unlikable. Gilbert Arenas brought guns into the Wizards clubhouse because of an issue over gambling debts, but I guess that was alright because he was amusing and talked to the media after every game, right? Nonetheless, Mike Rizzo decided to give Feinstein a call about the Werth comments and I hope Riz gave him an earful.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
I Told You Guys!
In my previous post, I said to expect the Nationals to announce some more big news in the next 7 to 10 days. Here we are about a week later and the Nationals have signed reliever Casey Janssen. Alright, not exactly the big announcement I was expecting/talking about. It's actually better. There was a glaring hole in the bullpen after Tyler Clippard was traded to Oakland and that hole will now be filled by Janssen, who has saved 81 games over the past 3 seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Monday, January 19, 2015
Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister......and Roark?
Let me start off by saying I trust anything that Mike Rizzo does. He's done enough for this organization over the past 7-8 years to earn the trust of all of the fans. With that being said, a mere two months ago, Tom Boswell wrote an article in The Washington Post quoting Rizzo's dad as telling Rizzo "don't fall in love with your own players." That's exactly what happened here. Max Scherzer was in fact drafted by Rizzo while he was with the Diamondbacks in 2006. Sure, Rizzo was here when the Nats drafted Jordan Zimmermann in the second round of the 2007 draft, but he was the assistant GM at that point, so we don't know how much say he had in this draft pick. In 2006 in Arizona, Rizzo was the Director of Scouting. Scherzer was his guy, there's no doubt about it.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
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