We're about three weeks away from Spring Training and it's looking like the Nationals roster overhaul is complete (barring a surprise signing/trade). The Nationals have caught a lot of flak this offseason for numerous reasons and much of it is unwarranted. We started the offseason with the Bud Black...wait...I mean Dusty Baker managerial hire. The harsh criticism the Nationals received for the way they handled hiring a manager was well warranted. The rest of the criticism for failing to sign the big name free agents that they've been involved in...well that's debatable.
The Nationals have negotiated with some of the biggest names in free agency this year. The Nationals have also signed none of those players. They had competitive (if not the highest) offers on the table for Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, and Darren O'Day. The fact that they were able to sign none of these players despite having very attractive offers on the table has led to many questioning whether or not the Nationals clubhouse is "toxic". Don't get me wrong, some of these guys may be worried about getting choked out if they go 0 for 4 one day, but that's absolutely not the reason the Nationals were unable to reel any of these players in. Darren O'Day would have had no problem joining the Nationals, but O'Day wanted a four year contract. The Nationals weren't going to offer that, but the Orioles were. Despite offering more money in average annual value, O'Day locked up $6 million extra by securing that extra year from the Orioles. As far as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes are concerned, the Nationals were reportedly offering the most money to both. However, the Nationals wanted to defer a lot of that money, much like they did with Max Scherzer. When you take the deferrals into consideration, the present day value of both contracts ended up being close to what Heyward signed with the Cubs and what Cespedes signed with the Mets. Not to mention, Cespedes secured an opt-out after the first season with the Mets, the Nationals offered an opt-out after year two. Cespedes also would have been absolutely nuts to turn down $27.5 million this season with the chance to hit free agency next year in a very weak free agent class. The problem here isn't the Nationals clubhouse, it's the way that the contract offers are structured. Some players are fine with the deferrals, but others aren't. Maybe Heyward and Cespedes were two players who wanted nothing to do with deferrals. While on the topic of deferrals, it may be a blessing in disguise that Heyward and Cespedes didn't sign. Don't forget, Rafael Soriano's contract back in 2013 contained deferrals as well. Starting in 2018, Soriano is owed $2 million per season through 2024. What a steal, right? Then you have Scherzer's contract which has deferrals totaling $105 million which will kick in starting in 2022 paying him $15 million per year through 2028. In 2024, the Nationals will be paying Max Scherzer and Rafael Soriano $17 million and they will both most likely be retired. If you want to find a way to screw up your budget down the line, this is a great way to do it. Adding in more deferred money from Heyward or Cespedes would have been a nightmare.
Although many have chosen to look at only the negatives to this offseason, there have been a good amount of positives. On December 24th, the Nationals signed Daniel Murphy to a three year $37.5 million deal. They followed that up by signing Stephen Drew to a one year $3 million deal. The Nationals also completely overhauled their bullpen, which included signing Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Shawn Kelley, while trading for Trevor Gott and trading Drew Storen to Toronto. The Drew Storen trade to Toronto may end up being the Nationals best move of the offseason. In return for Storen, the Nationals got Ben Revere, who may not be one of the most defensively gifted center fielders, but he's going to be a great lead off hitter and he's going to steal a lot of bases for you.
The Nationals offense sputtered last season at times without Denard Span at the top. Unless Mike Rizzo wanted a repeat of last year, one of the things he had to do this offseason was get a lead off hitter, and he did just that. Ben Revere is a career .295 hitter over 6 seasons in the majors. Revere is actually Denard Span's former teammate with the Minnesota Twins. They were both traded after the 2012 season, with Span coming to Washington and Revere going to Philadelphia. Revere comes with two years of team control (compared to Storen's one) and he will make about $2 million less than Storen (although the Nationals sent money to Toronto to offset the salaries). Revere brings tons of speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Over the course of about 2,500 at bats, Revere has struck out about 9.9% of the time. To put that in perspective, Denard Span, who I think Nationals fans would agree, rarely struck out, has struck out 12.8% of his at bats. The Nationals are getting a guy who puts the ball in play at an even higher clip than Span, and that's pretty impressive. Between Revere and Murphy, the Nationals just got a lot harder to strike out. That's huge because of the dominant arms they're going to be facing 19 times against the Mets next season. If you can't put the ball in play, nothing good can happen.
For those of you that are still upset about not being able to land Heyward, Zobrist, or Cespedes, please just remember one thing. The 2018-2019 free agent class, which is just three years away, is going to be the greatest of all time. Yes, the Nationals have some deferred money on the books, but luckily, as of today, the Nationals only have two players under contract following the 2018 season (that does not include arbitration eligible players such as Anthony Rendon, Michael Taylor, etc.). Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey, among others are all slated to become free agents in the 2018-2019 offseason. Of course the Nationals want to keep Harper, but it's probably going to take a $400-500 million commitment to make it happen. What's even more scary? The Nationals won't be the only team ready to make that commitment. The Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, and Phillies (yes, the Phillies) among others, all have substantial money coming off the books and will be right there with the Nationals ready to throw money at all of these players, with Harper being the main prize. The point is, the Nationals have to be cognizant of that and that may be the reason they were bargain shopping and not going all in this offseason. Jason Heyward was an exception and it was widely speculated that he would receive an opt-out clause to make him a free agent again prior to 2018-2019, which he did. If you're the Nationals, you want to commit to short term deals. Nothing above three years, which is exactly what they've been able to do this offseason.
Are the Nationals the favorites in the NL East? No, especially not after the Mets landed Cespedes for at least another year. Being the favorite means nothing though. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East last year, but injuries happen and players can under perform. The Nationals are in great position to challenge the Mets for the NL East title. The lineup and the bullpen have both been revamped. Don't forget, the Nationals have two weapons sitting in the minor leagues in Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. These two guys are ready to contribute this year. Turner helps make the lineup even longer and Giolito can slide in between Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez to make the rotation down right scary. If the Nationals want to take back the East, they have to do one thing that the Mets did better than them last year. They have to beat bad teams and they have to beat them a lot. The Mets went 60-30 against National League teams under .500, the Nationals went 53-37 against those same teams. That right there is a seven game difference. The Mets won the NL East by exactly 7 games. Sure the Nationals going 8-11 against the Mets contributes to that as well, I'm not arguing that. If you want a chance at the playoffs though, you have to beat up on the bad teams at an extremely high clip. The Nationals will have 57 games against teams who are rebuilding or not expected to compete next year (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Colorado). That's over 1/3 of the season. You have to win about 70% of those games if you want to consider yourself a contender. The Nationals have the talent to beat those teams 70% of the time, if not higher. If the Nationals can stay healthy and beat the bad teams, this is going to be a fun season and an even more fun battle for the NL East crown.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Dream Big and Make a Splash
The Winter Meetings are officially concluding today in Nashville and the Nationals still have a ton of work to do. If you had told me (or Mike Rizzo for that matter) that the Nationals would leave the Winter Meetings with Yusmeiro Petit as their prize free agent signing, I wouldn't have been too happy. Only walking away with Petit is not for lack of effort, though. The Nationals were one of the finalists to land a personal favorite of mine, Ben Zobrist. In fact, reports have said that the Nationals made the highest contract offer to Zobrist, but in the end, Zobrist wanted to be reunited with his former manager, Joe Maddon. After swinging and missing on Zobrist and Darren O'Day (don't even get me started), Mike Rizzo is still left with some big question marks, both in the bullpen and in the lineup.
Actually, I can't help myself on the Darren O'Day thing. Peter Angelos is a complete tool and probably the worst owner in baseball. He's got money he hasn't even folded yet from this MASN deal, yet he makes sure the Orioles operate like a small market team. He sees the Nationals have interest in one of his free agents and lo and behold, there's Pete swooping in at the last minute to make sure the Nationals don't get a deal done. He offers Chris Davis a contract for a day, then takes it off the table. It reminds me a lot of his contract offer to Mark Teixeira in 2008. The Orioles offered Teixeira 7 years and $150 million. That offer was immediately shot down by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, and Teixeira ended up signing an 8 year $180 million contract with the Yankees. Angelos likes to put on a show for Orioles fans, he likes to tease them a little bit. He makes an offer to a big name player, an offer that he knows isn't market value, then tells fans that he tried. Well, I guess he did try, just not very hard. I truly don't care about the Orioles, it doesn't matter to me whether they win 100 games or win 60 games, but for the sake of Orioles fans around the country, Angelos has got to go.
The Nationals have already made three additions to a bullpen that needed a major overhaul this offseason. Last week, the Nationals signed Oliver Perez to a two year, seven million dollar deal. Perez is a nice lefty to have come out of the bullpen and over the past three seasons, he's struck out over ten batters per nine innings. Another reliever, Shawn Kelley, who the Nationals have reportedly signed to a one year deal, also has struck out over ten batters per nine innings over the past three seasons. Those are impressive numbers and ones that will definitely help the Nationals bullpen, but it still doesn't answer the biggest question. Who is going to set up and who is going to close games? Rizzo insists that he's more than happy to go into next season with Storen setting up and Papelbon closing, but how are you seriously going to welcome Papelbon back after last year? On top of that, Drew Storen has no interest in being here anymore, and I don't blame him. He puts together a dominant first half as the closer and then gets replaced at the trade deadline by a psychopath.
I'm obviously a fan of making up my own deals that I'd like to see happen, but that have a very slim chance of happening. About a month ago, I thought to myself signing Mike Leake would be a good move for the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg is a year away from free agency, and Leake will come somewhat cheap, while eating up some innings for you. I'm still not opposed to signing Leake, but there are a few other directions in which the Nationals could go. Here 's the dream scenario:
1.) The Nationals sign Jason Heyward for 9 years and $190 million with a player opt-out clause after 4 years. The contract is essentially a 4 year $96 million deal (average annual value of $24 million for Heyward) and would allow him to hit free agency again when he turns 30 years old. The Nats in turn get a left handed lead off hitter that plays excellent defense, while not tying up too much money when it's time to offer Bryce $400 million and 30% ownership in the team (keep in mind, Werth's contract is up in two years too), but that's besides the point. This also allows the Nationals to make their next move...
2.) The Nationals trade Michael A. Taylor and Drew Storen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi and Jake McGee. I have no clue why the Rays would make this trade, but Mike Rizzo has been known to surprise before, so let's just imagine that he does. Now the Nationals have freed up the $8.5 million that Storen would be making this upcoming season while acquiring a player who is in his second year of arbitration (McGee, who will probably bring home about $4.5 million) and for a starting pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Now the Nationals have a dominant set up man or closer, whichever spot you'd prefer to use McGee in. McGee has a 2.77 career ERA and has struck out 319 batters in 259 2/3 innings. Getting Odorizzi is a big piece to this though because Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after next season, so Odorizzi provides some insurance should Stras leave. Side note, there's no reason why Strasburg wouldn't leave. Next year's starting pitching market is one of the worst of all time. Stras should have no problem getting $200+ million, but it won't be from the Nationals. The Nationals may consider even trading him this offseason, but only if somebody is willing to give up major league ready pitching for him. Speaking of major league ready pitching, may the Nationals will trade some of it to.....
3.) The Nationals trade AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo to the Cincinnati Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Yeah, I'm going to get some backlash on this one....but I already know that. Here's the deal, the Nats need a bullpen makeover and there are no relievers in free agency that can close games. The only ones available via trade are Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller at this point. Andrew Miller would probably cost the Nationals Strasburg, so why not dangle two top 10 prospects in front of the Reds and see if they take it? Chapman's price is surely ten times lower than it was on Monday morning, so this offer may get the job done. Dusty Baker managed Chapman with the Reds a few years ago, so maybe Dusty can help get this guy's life on track. Trading for Chapman doesn't make what he did ok. Hell, the guy may even be suspended by Major League Baseball for half the year or end up in jail for a period of time and this deal turns out to be a bust. Your other option right now though is Jonathan Papelbon and he isn't exactly a Saint, either.
In the end, the Nationals are spending an additional $24.5 million next year (if you include shedding Yunel Escobar's contract) for Jason Heyward and a dominant bullpen. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the Nationals will also most likely trade Jonathan Papelbon. The problem is, they are most likely going to have to eat most of his $11 million contract for next year, so I'm not going to include any money saved on him for now. Here's how the lineup, rotation, and bullpen could look in this scenario:
Lineup:
1.) Jason Heyward, CF
2.) Jayson Werth, RF
3.) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4.) Bryce Harper, LF
5.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6.) Wilson Ramos, C
7.) Danny Espinosa, 2B
8.) Trea Turner, SS
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Rotation:
1.) Max Scherzer
2.) Stephen Strasburg
3.) Jake Odorizzi
4.) Gio Gonzalez
5.) Tanner Roark/Joe Ross
Bullpen:
1.) Yusmeiro Petit
2.) Felipe Rivero
3.) Shawn Kelley
4.) Oliver Perez
5.) Trevor Gott
6.) Jake McGee
7.) Aroldis Chapman, Closer
Yes, you're seeing that right, there is one returning player coming back to the Nationals bullpen. After what we had to go through last year, that's exactly how it should be. The lineup may not be as impressive as it has in years past, but putting Heyward up top and having Turner's speed at the bottom will definitely help the Nationals score some runs. The rotation is as good as usual and if you can get games to the eighth inning with a lead, I'd take my chances with McGee and Chapman against any team.
Actually, I can't help myself on the Darren O'Day thing. Peter Angelos is a complete tool and probably the worst owner in baseball. He's got money he hasn't even folded yet from this MASN deal, yet he makes sure the Orioles operate like a small market team. He sees the Nationals have interest in one of his free agents and lo and behold, there's Pete swooping in at the last minute to make sure the Nationals don't get a deal done. He offers Chris Davis a contract for a day, then takes it off the table. It reminds me a lot of his contract offer to Mark Teixeira in 2008. The Orioles offered Teixeira 7 years and $150 million. That offer was immediately shot down by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, and Teixeira ended up signing an 8 year $180 million contract with the Yankees. Angelos likes to put on a show for Orioles fans, he likes to tease them a little bit. He makes an offer to a big name player, an offer that he knows isn't market value, then tells fans that he tried. Well, I guess he did try, just not very hard. I truly don't care about the Orioles, it doesn't matter to me whether they win 100 games or win 60 games, but for the sake of Orioles fans around the country, Angelos has got to go.
The Nationals have already made three additions to a bullpen that needed a major overhaul this offseason. Last week, the Nationals signed Oliver Perez to a two year, seven million dollar deal. Perez is a nice lefty to have come out of the bullpen and over the past three seasons, he's struck out over ten batters per nine innings. Another reliever, Shawn Kelley, who the Nationals have reportedly signed to a one year deal, also has struck out over ten batters per nine innings over the past three seasons. Those are impressive numbers and ones that will definitely help the Nationals bullpen, but it still doesn't answer the biggest question. Who is going to set up and who is going to close games? Rizzo insists that he's more than happy to go into next season with Storen setting up and Papelbon closing, but how are you seriously going to welcome Papelbon back after last year? On top of that, Drew Storen has no interest in being here anymore, and I don't blame him. He puts together a dominant first half as the closer and then gets replaced at the trade deadline by a psychopath.
I'm obviously a fan of making up my own deals that I'd like to see happen, but that have a very slim chance of happening. About a month ago, I thought to myself signing Mike Leake would be a good move for the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg is a year away from free agency, and Leake will come somewhat cheap, while eating up some innings for you. I'm still not opposed to signing Leake, but there are a few other directions in which the Nationals could go. Here 's the dream scenario:
1.) The Nationals sign Jason Heyward for 9 years and $190 million with a player opt-out clause after 4 years. The contract is essentially a 4 year $96 million deal (average annual value of $24 million for Heyward) and would allow him to hit free agency again when he turns 30 years old. The Nats in turn get a left handed lead off hitter that plays excellent defense, while not tying up too much money when it's time to offer Bryce $400 million and 30% ownership in the team (keep in mind, Werth's contract is up in two years too), but that's besides the point. This also allows the Nationals to make their next move...
2.) The Nationals trade Michael A. Taylor and Drew Storen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi and Jake McGee. I have no clue why the Rays would make this trade, but Mike Rizzo has been known to surprise before, so let's just imagine that he does. Now the Nationals have freed up the $8.5 million that Storen would be making this upcoming season while acquiring a player who is in his second year of arbitration (McGee, who will probably bring home about $4.5 million) and for a starting pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Now the Nationals have a dominant set up man or closer, whichever spot you'd prefer to use McGee in. McGee has a 2.77 career ERA and has struck out 319 batters in 259 2/3 innings. Getting Odorizzi is a big piece to this though because Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after next season, so Odorizzi provides some insurance should Stras leave. Side note, there's no reason why Strasburg wouldn't leave. Next year's starting pitching market is one of the worst of all time. Stras should have no problem getting $200+ million, but it won't be from the Nationals. The Nationals may consider even trading him this offseason, but only if somebody is willing to give up major league ready pitching for him. Speaking of major league ready pitching, may the Nationals will trade some of it to.....
3.) The Nationals trade AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo to the Cincinnati Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Yeah, I'm going to get some backlash on this one....but I already know that. Here's the deal, the Nats need a bullpen makeover and there are no relievers in free agency that can close games. The only ones available via trade are Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller at this point. Andrew Miller would probably cost the Nationals Strasburg, so why not dangle two top 10 prospects in front of the Reds and see if they take it? Chapman's price is surely ten times lower than it was on Monday morning, so this offer may get the job done. Dusty Baker managed Chapman with the Reds a few years ago, so maybe Dusty can help get this guy's life on track. Trading for Chapman doesn't make what he did ok. Hell, the guy may even be suspended by Major League Baseball for half the year or end up in jail for a period of time and this deal turns out to be a bust. Your other option right now though is Jonathan Papelbon and he isn't exactly a Saint, either.
In the end, the Nationals are spending an additional $24.5 million next year (if you include shedding Yunel Escobar's contract) for Jason Heyward and a dominant bullpen. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the Nationals will also most likely trade Jonathan Papelbon. The problem is, they are most likely going to have to eat most of his $11 million contract for next year, so I'm not going to include any money saved on him for now. Here's how the lineup, rotation, and bullpen could look in this scenario:
Lineup:
1.) Jason Heyward, CF
2.) Jayson Werth, RF
3.) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4.) Bryce Harper, LF
5.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6.) Wilson Ramos, C
7.) Danny Espinosa, 2B
8.) Trea Turner, SS
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Rotation:
1.) Max Scherzer
2.) Stephen Strasburg
3.) Jake Odorizzi
4.) Gio Gonzalez
5.) Tanner Roark/Joe Ross
Bullpen:
1.) Yusmeiro Petit
2.) Felipe Rivero
3.) Shawn Kelley
4.) Oliver Perez
5.) Trevor Gott
6.) Jake McGee
7.) Aroldis Chapman, Closer
Yes, you're seeing that right, there is one returning player coming back to the Nationals bullpen. After what we had to go through last year, that's exactly how it should be. The lineup may not be as impressive as it has in years past, but putting Heyward up top and having Turner's speed at the bottom will definitely help the Nationals score some runs. The rotation is as good as usual and if you can get games to the eighth inning with a lead, I'd take my chances with McGee and Chapman against any team.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Wait, What?
Is this real life? Or is this a bad dream where the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation? Well, I can tell you that yes, it is real life, and yes, the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation. The Lerner family, clearly upset about the outcome of last season, saw this as an opportunity to take some control and stick it to Mike Rizzo, and that's exactly what they did. That leaves us where we are this morning, with Dusty Baker, not Bud Black, as the new manager of the Washington Nationals.
I want to make this abundantly clear before I go any further, I like Dusty Baker, his track record speaks for itself. He gets a bad rap for his handling of a pitching staff, but I'm not sold on that. People will point to his "over usage" of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. The most notable example is Mark Prior. The problem with this argument is that Prior threw 167 2/3 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2002. Baker upped his innings total in 2003 to 234 1/3 including the playoffs in 2003, a difference of almost 67 innings. Sure, that's a big increase in innings, but wait a minute, didn't Terry Collins just do something similar with not just one Mets pitcher, but two? Noah Syndergaard entered the 2015 season having pitched 133 innings (which he did in 2014), or less, in every season of his career. This season Syndergaard pitched 198 2/3 innings including the playoffs, which is a difference of almost 66 innings. Matt Harvey, coming off of Tommy John surgery just pitched 215 2/3 innings this year including the postseason. Not only is that a career high for Harvey, but he's also setting that career high after coming off of major surgery. The point is, lets not jump on Baker for ruining the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Kerry Wood had injury issues before Baker even arrived in Chicago. As for Prior, has anyone ever thought that maybe the guy is just injury prone?
With that being said, if there is one thing that turns me off about hiring Dusty Baker, it's that he believes walks just clog up the bases. As I wrote yesterday, the Nats need to be more like the Royals to dethrone the Mets and to advance in the playoffs. Being more like the Royals means putting the ball in play more and getting more people on base. I don't care if that means via walk, hit, hit by pitch, it doesn't matter. Dusty Baker is an old-school manager though, he likes power, he likes home runs. Fortunately for him, the Nationals can hit a good amount of those. Unfortunately for Nationals fans, the Nationals will most likely finish top three in the Majors in strikeouts because there will not be a change in philosophy. I know Baker wins, but the Mets pitching staff is dominant. If you don't care about on base percentage and walks, you aren't going to beat them.
As for the Lerner family and Mike Rizzo - they should all be ashamed of themselves and completely embarrassed. My initial reaction late last night/early this morning was that this all falls on Rizzo and he should immediately be fired. That won't happen though and as more details come out, that probably shouldn't happen. However, Mike Rizzo is still to blame for this. Following the 2014 season, Rizzo picked up Matt Williams option for the 2016 season. Well, Matt Williams isn't here anymore, but the Lerner family is still on the hook to pay him $1 million for the 2016 season. That $1 million could have been the difference in being able to sign Bud Black and not being able to sign Bud Black, we may never know. It's also Mike Rizzo's job to tell the Lerners that if you want to get "your guy" to be the next manager, you may have to agree to their terms, not your own. For owners that have no problem agreeing to Scott Boras's terms every offseason, I didn't know this would be that big of a pill to swallow. This may not have been about Bud Black though, this may have been all about Dusty Baker and the Lerner family.
It was reported a few days ago that the Lerner family was thoroughly impressed with Dusty Baker and that they actually preferred him to Bud Black. However, Mike Rizzo and a few other front office personnel preferred Black to Baker, so the Nationals went with Black. The Lerner family seems to be of the thought that it doesn't matter who manages the team though, all that matters is that they're shelling out the money to put a contender on the field. That doesn't make too much sense though from a baseball standpoint or a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure Ted Lerner had his best employees working on the development of Tysons Corner, so wouldn't you want the best guy for the job handling one of your biggest investments, the Washington Nationals? From the outside looking in, it seems that Ted Lerner was going to do anything possible to save a few bucks on this managerial hire because he knows he's paying Matt Williams and most likely Jonathan Papelbon next year even though neither will be with the club. A one year offer with multiple team options is insulting to a manager with as much experience as Bud Black. Dusty Baker seemed to be fine with a two year offer with multiple club options, but that's because he wants to get back into managing. Bud Black stood his ground and honestly, with the experience he has, Dusty could have too. The Nationals are on their fourth manager in five years. It's not because the team has failed to meet expectations (except for this year), but it's more so because the Lerners will not commit to one person past two years. It's called Dan Snyder syndrome and it's hard to treat. The Lerner family, with the help of Mike Rizzo, just started the Washington Nationals 2016 offseason in the most embarrassing way possible. It's left fans frustrated, the rest of Major League Baseball scratching their heads, and the Nationals public relations staff with a huge mess.
I want to make this abundantly clear before I go any further, I like Dusty Baker, his track record speaks for itself. He gets a bad rap for his handling of a pitching staff, but I'm not sold on that. People will point to his "over usage" of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. The most notable example is Mark Prior. The problem with this argument is that Prior threw 167 2/3 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2002. Baker upped his innings total in 2003 to 234 1/3 including the playoffs in 2003, a difference of almost 67 innings. Sure, that's a big increase in innings, but wait a minute, didn't Terry Collins just do something similar with not just one Mets pitcher, but two? Noah Syndergaard entered the 2015 season having pitched 133 innings (which he did in 2014), or less, in every season of his career. This season Syndergaard pitched 198 2/3 innings including the playoffs, which is a difference of almost 66 innings. Matt Harvey, coming off of Tommy John surgery just pitched 215 2/3 innings this year including the postseason. Not only is that a career high for Harvey, but he's also setting that career high after coming off of major surgery. The point is, lets not jump on Baker for ruining the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Kerry Wood had injury issues before Baker even arrived in Chicago. As for Prior, has anyone ever thought that maybe the guy is just injury prone?
With that being said, if there is one thing that turns me off about hiring Dusty Baker, it's that he believes walks just clog up the bases. As I wrote yesterday, the Nats need to be more like the Royals to dethrone the Mets and to advance in the playoffs. Being more like the Royals means putting the ball in play more and getting more people on base. I don't care if that means via walk, hit, hit by pitch, it doesn't matter. Dusty Baker is an old-school manager though, he likes power, he likes home runs. Fortunately for him, the Nationals can hit a good amount of those. Unfortunately for Nationals fans, the Nationals will most likely finish top three in the Majors in strikeouts because there will not be a change in philosophy. I know Baker wins, but the Mets pitching staff is dominant. If you don't care about on base percentage and walks, you aren't going to beat them.
As for the Lerner family and Mike Rizzo - they should all be ashamed of themselves and completely embarrassed. My initial reaction late last night/early this morning was that this all falls on Rizzo and he should immediately be fired. That won't happen though and as more details come out, that probably shouldn't happen. However, Mike Rizzo is still to blame for this. Following the 2014 season, Rizzo picked up Matt Williams option for the 2016 season. Well, Matt Williams isn't here anymore, but the Lerner family is still on the hook to pay him $1 million for the 2016 season. That $1 million could have been the difference in being able to sign Bud Black and not being able to sign Bud Black, we may never know. It's also Mike Rizzo's job to tell the Lerners that if you want to get "your guy" to be the next manager, you may have to agree to their terms, not your own. For owners that have no problem agreeing to Scott Boras's terms every offseason, I didn't know this would be that big of a pill to swallow. This may not have been about Bud Black though, this may have been all about Dusty Baker and the Lerner family.
It was reported a few days ago that the Lerner family was thoroughly impressed with Dusty Baker and that they actually preferred him to Bud Black. However, Mike Rizzo and a few other front office personnel preferred Black to Baker, so the Nationals went with Black. The Lerner family seems to be of the thought that it doesn't matter who manages the team though, all that matters is that they're shelling out the money to put a contender on the field. That doesn't make too much sense though from a baseball standpoint or a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure Ted Lerner had his best employees working on the development of Tysons Corner, so wouldn't you want the best guy for the job handling one of your biggest investments, the Washington Nationals? From the outside looking in, it seems that Ted Lerner was going to do anything possible to save a few bucks on this managerial hire because he knows he's paying Matt Williams and most likely Jonathan Papelbon next year even though neither will be with the club. A one year offer with multiple team options is insulting to a manager with as much experience as Bud Black. Dusty Baker seemed to be fine with a two year offer with multiple club options, but that's because he wants to get back into managing. Bud Black stood his ground and honestly, with the experience he has, Dusty could have too. The Nationals are on their fourth manager in five years. It's not because the team has failed to meet expectations (except for this year), but it's more so because the Lerners will not commit to one person past two years. It's called Dan Snyder syndrome and it's hard to treat. The Lerner family, with the help of Mike Rizzo, just started the Washington Nationals 2016 offseason in the most embarrassing way possible. It's left fans frustrated, the rest of Major League Baseball scratching their heads, and the Nationals public relations staff with a huge mess.
Monday, November 2, 2015
The Beginning to a Huge Offseason
Just like I thought, the team with the best bullpen won the World Series. Well, sort of. My original prediction was that the Pirates would win the World Series. That didn't exactly turn out so well. The Pirates led the Majors with a 2.67 bullpen ERA, but right behind them were the Kansas City Royals with a 2.72 bullpen ERA. That bullpen was on full display during the World Series. Every game, you just got the feeling that if the Royals starter got them through five innings and they were within three runs, the Royals had a shot. Their bullpen gave up five total runs during the World Series, four of those runs were charged to Franklin Morales in Game 3, which was the only game the Royals lost. It was an absolutely dominating performance.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Mattingly Out In L.A. & World Series Prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to "mutually part ways" with manager Don Mattingly this morning. If the Nationals had a manager in place, this would probably be a meaningless headline for Nationals fans. The Nationals have not yet hired a new manager though, so expect to see Mattingly's name pop up within the next day or two.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Monday, October 5, 2015
It's Almost Better Than Making The Playoffs
The inevitable has finally happened. We've reached a new era. An era where the manager's post game press conferences may give us some explanations for the decisions made during the game. We won't get any responses telling us that there is a game to win tomorrow, even after we've officially been eliminated. That's right, Matt Williams was officially fired as manager of the Washington Nationals this morning. It hurts not making the playoffs, but this is a nice consolation prize. Had the Nationals made the playoffs, this guy would be around for at least another year. He would be managing a team that may have less talent than this year's 83 win bunch. Now we have a shot to contend next year. Mike Rizzo has a ton of work and a ton of decisions to make this off season, but he's made by far the easiest decision already, and he's off to a good start. I'll get into some of the other tough decisions Mike Rizzo will have to make and give you some predictions as to who the Nationals may go after on another day. Today is all about looking forward to a new coaching staff in the dugout next year.
The harder part of this decision was to relieve the rest of the coaching staff. Some of these guys have been with the Nationals and with Nationals players for almost ten years (Randy Knorr). The bottom line though, is this season was a colossal failure. That falls on everybody. Matt Williams will take the brunt of the blame, but the rest of the coaching staff is just as at fault. Side note, the offense actually scored the third most runs in the National League, so Rick Schu did a great job, but he was about the only one. Steve McCatty's message seemed to go stale this year after six years with the Nationals. Above all else though, Mike Rizzo had to give his new manager a clean slate. Not many managers come to a team with their coaching staff already picked for them. That's something Mike Rizzo did to Matt Williams, but it's not something he was going to be able to do again.
As for the candidates, I'm sticking with three of the four candidates that I listed during my September 14th blog. Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Bo Porter are very likely to all receive interviews for the job. I listed Dusty Baker as a candidate on September 14th, but ultimately, I don't think he's in the conversation. It will be interesting to see if Rizzo decides to go with a guy with some experience, or if he goes with somebody who's never managed again. Clearly, hiring a guy with no experience backfired on the Nationals two years ago. That may persuade Rizzo to change his mind with this next hire, especially with his job seemingly on the line if the Nationals can't compete for a National League postseason berth next season.
I don't know that Rizzo will actually interview more than three candidates. There's really no point because unless Mike Scioscia opts out of his contract with the Angels and decides he wants to come to the East Coast, there are only two candidates that should even be considered. Bud Black and Dave Martinez are the two names to watch as the Nationals managerial search gets underway. These two guys are different in terms of experience level, but the same in that they know what it takes to win.
Bud Black managed the San Diego Padres to a 649-713 record over the course of 8 1/2 years. More times than not, Black had little to work with in San Diego. He had solid pitching, but never had any bats, so the fact that he put together a .477 winning percentage with a smaller market team like the Padres speaks volumes to what he can do. Not to mention, from 2010 through 2014 (Black's last full season with the Padres), they finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. One of the Nationals biggest failures this season was the bullpen. This guy knows how to manage a bullpen and knows how to help develop bullpen arms. If Black is not one of the top two or three candidates on Rizzo's list, then he just isn't doing his job.
Dave Martinez is probably this off season's hottest managerial candidate that has no experience. Martinez is currently Joe Maddon's bench coach for the Chicago Cubs. He's actually been Maddon's right hand man since 2007. Considering Maddon has a career .524 winning percentage as a Major League manager, including turning this year's Chicago Cubs team into an instant World Series contender, I'd say that Martinez has learned a good amount from Maddon and is ready to take the next step. The Nationals missed out on their opportunity to grab Maddon a year ago, but the opportunity to nab a possible Maddon 2.0 is sitting right in front of them.
Ultimately, if I'm Mike Rizzo, I have Bud Black on a plane right now and I'm going to hire him as soon as I can. Like I said, this season was such a failure that Rizzo's job is now on the line. There's no time to experiment with guys who haven't managed before. It's time to right the ship and that starts with addressing your weaknesses. Last year's coaching staff was a weakness. Now Rizzo has the opportunity to turn that into a strength with a guy who has the experience, knows how to handle a pitching staff, and also knows how to handle a clubhouse. Pretty soon, the Nationals may have a new number 20 walking around in the dugout next year, and that's Bud Black.
Short Bonus Playoff Predictions:
AL Wild Card Game - Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Give me the Astros. The probable AL Cy-Young award winner, Dallas Keuchel has already dominated the Yankees twice this year.
NL Wild Card Game - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they both win? Jake Arrieta is mowing everybody down right now and the Pirates haven't had an answer for him this season (they're not the only ones) as they're 1-3 against him in five games. Gerrit Cole is pretty good though himself. Give me the Pirates in this one, with the Cubs bullpen blowing it in the 8th inning.
AL Divisional Round - Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers: Unless Cole Hamels pitches on three days rest on Thursday, the Rangers will be at a huge disadvantage on the mound. Either way, I think the Rangers are at a huge disadvantage. Blue Jays in 4.
AL Divisional Round - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros: Keuchel pitching Tuesday means he can't pitch Friday, which also means he won't pitch more than once this series. Royals in 4.
NL Divisional Round - St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Cardinals injuries ever going to catch up to them? Probably not because they're so deep and just keep bringing up prospects that contribute (The Nationals should take notes). I still like the Pirates in this series though. Pirates in 5.
NL Divisional Round - L.A. Dodgers vs N.Y. Mets: As much as I want both the Cubs and Pirates to win, I'd like both of these teams to lose. I actually am rooting for the Mets though in this one. Kershaw and Greinke will be tough to beat, but so will deGrom and Harvey. Mets in 5.
ALCS - Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals: Although the Royals have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, I don't know that they have the starting pitching to maneuver through the Blue Jays lineup. You may see Cueto twice, but other than Cueto, who has been shaky since coming to the Royals, there's nobody that scares me. Blue Jays in 6.
NLCS - New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: I really like how the Pirates play. They have a deep rotation, a great bullpen, and a lineup that doesn't have many holes. They also have a guy named Andrew McCutchen who plays center field. They could just as easily be bounced out on Wednesday night, but that's alright with me. Pirates in 6.
World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Best bullpen in the Major Leagues. I'm a Nationals fan, if I know one thing, I know this - THE BULLPEN MATTERS, IT CAN WIN OR LOSE YOU GAMES. Pirates in 6.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Perfect Ending
When this season began way back on Monday, April 6th, I said to myself "This season is going to be amazing, we're going to be eliminated from the playoffs and our best player is going to get choked out by a guy who never should have been on the team!" Alright, maybe I didn't say that to myself. I can actually safely say that no fan of any team has ever said that at the beginning of the season. I feel like ending this blog right here and just telling everybody to go back and read my blog from July 29th, which you should still do. The problem is, that blog, which was written a day after the Nats acquired Papelbon, only touches on how I and how many other Nationals fans are feeling about that idiot today.
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
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