The Gift That Keeps Giving

This can't be 2015 all over again, can it? I've kept quiet all year through the ups and downs of this season, but I've officially had enough. The man crush that seems to exist between Mike Rizzo and Jonathan Papelbon has to end. Plain and simple, Jonathan Papelbon is far and away the worst acquisition that a General Manager of a Major League Baseball team has made in the past five years. How is a guy who was able to turn Steven Souza, Jr. into Joe Ross and Trea Turner stupid enough to trade for a clubhouse cancer who 29 other Major League teams wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole?

He made a grand entrance last year by blowing 2 of his 9 save opportunities and then choking out Bryce Harper in one of the final games of the season. You'd think his 77% conversion rate on save opportunities combined with the fact that he choked out the NL MVP would be enough to either release him or try and trade him (who the hell would want him though), but no, Rizzo decided it would be a great idea to hang onto him. I couldn't be happier that he did! Papelbon now has 3 blown saves in 22 opportunities this year along with a 2-4 record and is sporting a sweet 4.18 ERA. If you were curious, that ERA is the worst of any current closer in the National League. Frankly, I don't care if he's hurt, old, or just plain sucks. He has no business being a closer on a first place team. If Mike Rizzo and the Lerners can't handle releasing him and having to eat the rest of the money on his salary, then so be it, give him mop up opportunities in a 9-2 game every once in a while, but I don't want to see him in one more close game for the rest of the year.

The man who made this dream come true, Mike Rizzo, should really be thinking long and hard about who he wants to take over for Papelbon in the 9th. One of the problems here is Rizzo is always looking to either pay pennies on the dollar for a player or to get the other team to pick up most of a player's remaining salary before he acquires them. That's great and all, but this year's trade market doesn't allow for that. The Cubs already gave up their top prospect, a Major League reliever, and two other Minor League prospects to essentially rent Aroldis Chapman for 2-3 months. That's a steep price to pay, but at the same time, if you think you're one or two pieces away from a World Series, then it's well worth it. Are the Nationals one or two pieces away? It's quite possible.

The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are a leadoff hitter and a closer. Well, the Nationals may fill that first need in house. Trea Turner has looked very good over the past couple of weeks and his speed is a game changer. Will he play center field everyday? Probably not, but Ben Revere is still available to play center and hit leadoff when Trea isn't. Revere has truly hit into some awful luck this year, he's hitting around .220, but he's hitting line drives right at people, he could easily be hitting around .260 right now. Still not great from your leadoff hitter, but it's a lot easier to swallow than .220. The Nationals could also try and fill their need for a closer in house, but it would be a terrible idea. Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen would be the two most likely candidates, but then you're taking away one of your more reliable set up men and turning them into your closer. It shortens your bullpen by one man essentially. 

The available closers currently on the market are Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, David Robertson, Jeremy Jeffress, Huston Street (who has been worse than Papelbon), and possibly a couple of others. The Nationals main targets would be Miller, Davis, Jeffress, and Robertson, probably in that order. Here's the tricky part though, Rizzo doesn't want to pay the price tag for any of these guys. Miller and Davis would both cost two of the Nationals top four prospects plus another couple of mid tier prospects. Jeffress would probably cost one of the Nationals top four prospects plus a couple of mid tier prospects. Robertson, however, may come the cheapest. He's in the midst of his worst season and he's still owed $25 million over the next two years. If the Nationals are willing to pick up the majority of that, they would probably be able to hang onto their upper tier prospects and make a deal happen with a couple of their lesser prospects. Would I love to see Rizzo deal for Andrew Miller? Absolutely, he's one of the most dominant relievers in the game, but the reality is Rizzo isn't going to do that. Don't ask me why he's set on hanging onto three of the games top pitching prospects when he has four of his five rotation spots set for the next three years. Trust me, dealing one of them truly wouldn't hurt if it meant acquiring Miller. 

Knowing that Rizzo isn't going to meet the price tag for Miller or Davis, I'm really hoping he makes a move for David Robertson. Robertson is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 11.9 strikeouts over 9 innings throughout his career and he has postseason experience. His numbers are down and part of that may be that he never settled into Chicago. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. 

Here's a possible outline of a Robertson deal:

Nationals receive: David Robertson and $10 million

White Sox receive: A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, and Trevor Gott

I'm not sure that would get the deal done, but that would be my starting point. If the White Sox ask for somebody like Koda Glover instead of Gott, I would probably do it. This kind of deal would allow the Nationals to hang onto Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, Reynaldo Lopez, and Erik Fedde, all of whom they don't want to deal. It's time for Rizzo to make a deal and get a closer who we can trust.

Random Spring Training Thoughts

Spring Training is in full swing now and games are set to begin today when the Nationals travel to Port Charlotte to take on the Rays. Really, all that we can hope for this Spring is to stay healthy. Last Spring, the Nationals left Viera with Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Casey Janssen all headed to the disabled list. A couple things to keep an eye on during Spring Training:

1) Where is Dusty going to hit Bryce Harper and who is going to protect him in the lineup? I'd be shocked if Bryce hit fourth, but it depends on how Dusty likes to structure his lineup. By putting Bryce third instead of fourth, Bryce will get more at bats throughout the course of the year. It will also allow Dusty to balance the lineup out by going Revere (left handed), Rendon/Werth (right haneded), Bryce (left handed). That brings us to the next point, who hits in front of Bryce. The Nationals have a real luxury here this year. If Anthony Rendon is healthy, he's obviously the front runner to hit second. He gets on base, hits for some power, and is a bat that pitchers can't overlook with Bryce on deck. You could also go Jayson Werth here. Sure he had an awful year last year, but the reason he's an option is because he sees A TON of pitches and gets on base. He's probably the most capable number two hitter if Dusty wants to do a lot of hit and runs with Ben Revere on first. Daniel Murphy is the last option to hit second, however, if he's hitting second, the Nationals would start their lineup with three left handed hitters in a row. You probably don't want to do that. Murphy is an option though because he puts the ball in play at such a high clip. In putting Revere and Murphy first and second you would have two of the highest contact guys in the Major Leagues last year. My prediction is Dusty goes Revere, Rendon, then Bryce, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went with Werth to hit second either.

2) What's going to happen with the rotation? Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez have locked up the first three spots in the rotation, but the last two are there for the taking between three guys. It would be a big upset if Joe Ross didn't end up with one of the spots, but if Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker wanted to go with the two older guys and save Ross for a June/July call up they could hypothetically do that. Assuming Ross takes the fourth spot though, the fifth spot would come down to Tanner Roark and Bronson Arroyo. This is a tough one, although I wish it weren't. Tanner deserves a spot in this rotation. He deserved a spot in the rotation last year, there just wasn't any room. However, Arroyo and Dusty Baker are good friends from their days together in Cincinnati. Arroyo is also said to be a great clubhouse presence and no matter what any of us want to think, the Nationals need that. As long as Arroyo is healthy, my prediction is that Tanner puts up better stats in Spring Training, but Dusty Baker goes with Arroyo for the fifth spot and Tanner heads back to the bullpen.

3) Speaking of the bullpen, it's going to be interesting to see what Dusty Baker decides to do with the final few spots. It looks like Jonathan Papelbon, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, and Yusmeiro Petit are the locks to make the bullpen. That most likely leaves three open spots. Trevor Gott and Felipe Rivero are as close to locks as it gets, but the Nationals can still option both of them to the minors, so I wouldn't quite put them in the lock category. The last spot is Blake Treinen's spot to lose. Keep in mind though, Treinen has options too and Dusty has a lot of tough decisions to make. He has Bronson Arroyo, Burke Badenhop, Sean Burnett and Matt Belisle in Viera. Arroyo and Belisle played for him with the Reds. If Arroyo breaks camp as the fifth starter, then Tanner Roark gets that last spot and Treinen heads to the minors. If Arroyo doesn't make the team, Treinen most likely wins the last spot, but don't be surprised if Badenhop or Belisle steal the last spot from him. Dusty Baker is notorious for favoring veterans over younger guys, so don't be surprised if some of the younger guys get sent to the minors and more veterans make the team.

4) Is it going to be Danny Espinosa, Stephen Drew, or Trea Turner at shortstop to open up the season? I think all Nationals fans and probably even most of the Nationals front office want Trea Turner to win the job, but that's probably not going to happen. Unfortunately, even if Turner hits .400 and plays great defense this Spring, Mike Rizzo is going to have to be thinking about the business side of this. If the Nationals keep Turner in the minors until late May or early June, they control him for another year. Mike Rizzo did the same thing with Bryce Harper in 2012. Its also the same reason Kris Bryant didn't make the Cubs opening day roster last year but was called up two weeks into the season. It may not be fair to the player, but it's part of the game and the Nationals and Nationals fans will benefit in the long run by stashing Turner in the Minors for 6 weeks or so. That leaves Espinosa as the favorite to win the job. Unless Stephen Drew reverts back to the player he was with the Diamondbacks, I expect him to be nothing more than a left handed bat off the bench that will be good for a few spot starts here and there.

5) The most intriguing player in Nationals Spring Training right now is Lucas Giolito. He's not going to make the opening day roster, but I can't wait to see him pitch. Remember when the Mets had Matt Harvey and Jacob de Grom in the rotation last year and we were thinking "Ok there's no way they have anybody else like these two" and then they brought up Noah Syndergaard? It's the Nationals turn to play that card. In late June/early July, if any one of Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, or Bronson Arroyo/Tanner Roark are struggling, expect to see Giolito make his debut. A rotation headlined by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Lucas Giolito could make for an incredibly exciting NL East division race.

We may not see a regular lineup until a week or two into Spring Training games, possibly longer. Dusty needs to manager Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth's health and make sure they're 100% ready to go for Opening Day. If that means that they only play 10 games or so in Spring Training, then so be it. If the Nationals are going to make the playoffs this season, it will be because their key guys stayed healthy for the majority of the season.

It's Time to Re-Sign Ian

It's February 10th and Spring Training is set to begin in 10 days for the Washington Nationals. As of today, Ian Desmond is still a free agent. Yes, the man who has been a fixture at shortstop for the Nationals for the past six seasons still doesn't know where he's going to play this season. Many people want to point to the fact that his batting average and OPS have fallen each of the past four seasons. That's a bit dramatic though if you take a deeper look at it.

In 2012, Ian had a career year and helped lead the Nationals to their first division title. He hit .292 with 25 home runs and 33 doubles, which was good for a .845 OPS. He finished 16th on the NL MVP ballot that season. Could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure he could have, but that was never a realistic expectation. Ian followed up his 2012 campaign by hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 38 doubles in 2013, which was good for a .784 OPS. His 2013 season was a hell of a season, not just for a shortstop, but for anybody. Again, could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure, but again, he probably wasn't going to. Ian Desmond had never hit above .269 before his 2012 season. In his six years in the minor leagues, Ian was a .259 hitter with a .714 OPS. So why all of a sudden are people wondering where the guy went that hit .292 and .280? It was a mirage, Ian was playing at an unsustainable level compared to how he had played in his previous 8 years in professional baseball. Ian's 2015 season was abysmal, there's no getting around that. However, in 2014, Ian hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, 24 stolen bases and a .743 OPS. That's a season that you can expect year in and year out from Ian Desmond. Show me five other shortstops who are going to put that kind of season together for you over the next three to four years. You can't. In 2015, Ian hit .233 with 19 home runs. He struck out 187 times. He was awful. He was also haunted by a first half which saw him hit .211. He was no better than a replacement level player. He battled back to hit .262 in the second half though with 12 home runs. The second half Ian Desmond was the real Ian.

You can form whatever opinion you want about Ian Desmond, but if you're a Nationals fan, there's no denying that he would make this team better this year. He won't hit .233 again this season. He just won't. Just like he won't hit .292 ever again in his career. Those two seasons were outliers, you're better off acting as if they never happened. The fact that teams don't want to touch him because of his awful year last year is asinine. It's time for the Nationals and Ian to work something out that benefits both parties. I know Mike Rizzo said Ian won't be back, but you mean to tell me the longer Ian sits there that Rizzo doens't at least thing about it? Trea Turner is almost ready, but he could still use another few months (or up to a year) in the minors. No need to rush him up. There will be a need to rush him up though if Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew are expected to play shortstop all year. Danny Espinosa is a great utility guy and a great guy to have on your team. With that being said, he had one of his best seasons in the Majors last year by hitting .240 with 13 home runs. If it were you, would you put your money on Espinosa hitting .240 or better next year or Ian hitting .233 or better next year? I'd put my money on Ian. That's no knock on Espinosa, the fact of the matter is Ian is the better hitter and Espinosa is the better defender.

The Nationals need to take a chance here. The Nationals will assume 100% of the risk, but the reward could be huge. If you get 2014 Ian Desmond who hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, then you just added a major threat to the middle of an already revamped and potent lineup. A two year contract with an opt out after one year should be enough to get Ian back in Washington. Let's say its a two year $18 million deal with $12 million to be paid this year and $6 million next year if he opts to stay. If Ian comes anywhere close to the guy we saw from 2012-2014, then he opts out and gets a very nice payday somewhere else. In turn, the Nationals add another big bat to the lineup this year and can still slap Ian with the qualifying offer next offseason. It could be a win-win for Ian and the Nationals. If Ian has another season like he did last year and he happens to stay in 2017, then the Nationals are on the hook for $6 million. You can't worry about the $6 million. Nate McLouth pocketed almost $6 million of the Lerner's money last year sitting on his couch. So, Ted Lerner and Mike Rizzo - it's time to bring Desmond back to the District.


Last thing - If you're still not convinced, take a look at the potential lineups. Keep in mind Danny Espinosa hit .158 in 2013 and was sent to the minors then hit .219 in 2014. In case you were wondering, Stephen Drew hit .201 last season. Here are your options:

1.  Revere - CF                                                                 1. Ben Revere - CF
2.  Anthony Rendon - 2B                                                 2. Anthony Rendon - 2B
3.  Bryce Harper - RF                                                       3. Bryce Harper - RF
4.  Ryan Zimmerman - 1B                                                4. Ryan Zimmerman - 1B
5.  Daniel Murphy - 2B                                                     5. Daniel Murphy - 2B
6.  Jayson Werth - LF                                                        6. Jayson Werth - LF
7.  Danny Espinosa/Stephen Drew - SS                            7. Ian Desmond - SS
8.  Wilson Ramos - C                                                        8. Wilson Ramos - C
9.  Starting Pitcher                                                             9. Starting Pitcher

There's no denying the lineup takes a huge dip after Werth, but with Desmond in the fold, it doesn't have to take that dip.

It's a New Year and a New Team

We're about three weeks away from Spring Training and it's looking like the Nationals roster overhaul is complete (barring a surprise signing/trade). The Nationals have caught a lot of flak this offseason for numerous reasons and much of it is unwarranted. We started the offseason with the Bud Black...wait...I mean Dusty Baker managerial hire. The harsh criticism the Nationals received for the way they handled hiring a manager was well warranted. The rest of the criticism for failing to sign the big name free agents that they've been involved in...well that's debatable.

The Nationals have negotiated with some of the biggest names in free agency this year. The Nationals have also signed none of those players. They had competitive (if not the highest) offers on the table for Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, and Darren O'Day. The fact that they were able to sign none of these players despite having very attractive offers on the table has led to many questioning whether or not the Nationals clubhouse is "toxic". Don't get me wrong, some of these guys may be worried about getting choked out if they go 0 for 4 one day, but that's absolutely not the reason the Nationals were unable to reel any of these players in. Darren O'Day would have had no problem joining the Nationals, but O'Day wanted a four year contract. The Nationals weren't going to offer that, but the Orioles were. Despite offering more money in average annual value, O'Day locked up $6 million extra by securing that extra year from the Orioles. As far as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes are concerned, the Nationals were reportedly offering the most money to both. However, the Nationals wanted to defer a lot of that money, much like they did with Max Scherzer. When you take the deferrals into consideration, the present day value of both contracts ended up being close to what Heyward signed with the Cubs and what Cespedes signed with the Mets. Not to mention, Cespedes secured an opt-out after the first season with the Mets, the Nationals offered an opt-out after year two. Cespedes also would have been absolutely nuts to turn down $27.5 million this season with the chance to hit free agency next year in a very weak free agent class. The problem here isn't the Nationals clubhouse, it's the way that the contract offers are structured. Some players are fine with the deferrals, but others aren't. Maybe Heyward and Cespedes were two players who wanted nothing to do with deferrals. While on the topic of deferrals, it may be a blessing in disguise that Heyward and Cespedes didn't sign. Don't forget, Rafael Soriano's contract back in 2013 contained deferrals as well. Starting in 2018, Soriano is owed $2 million per season through 2024. What a steal, right? Then you have Scherzer's contract which has deferrals totaling $105 million which will kick in starting in 2022 paying him $15 million per year through 2028. In 2024, the Nationals will be paying Max Scherzer and Rafael Soriano $17 million and they will both most likely be retired. If you want to find a way to screw up your budget down the line, this is a great way to do it. Adding in more deferred money from Heyward or Cespedes would have been a nightmare.

Although many have chosen to look at only the negatives to this offseason, there have been a good amount of positives. On December 24th, the Nationals signed Daniel Murphy to a three year $37.5 million deal. They followed that up by signing Stephen Drew to a one year $3 million deal. The Nationals also completely overhauled their bullpen, which included signing Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Shawn Kelley, while trading for Trevor Gott and trading Drew Storen to Toronto. The Drew Storen trade to Toronto may end up being the Nationals best move of the offseason. In return for Storen, the Nationals got Ben Revere, who may not be one of the most defensively gifted center fielders, but he's going to be a great lead off hitter and he's going to steal a lot of bases for you.

The Nationals offense sputtered last season at times without Denard Span at the top. Unless Mike Rizzo wanted a repeat of last year, one of the things he had to do this offseason was get a lead off hitter, and he did just that. Ben Revere is a career .295 hitter over 6 seasons in the majors. Revere is actually Denard Span's former teammate with the Minnesota Twins. They were both traded after the 2012 season, with Span coming to Washington and Revere going to Philadelphia. Revere comes with two years of team control (compared to Storen's one) and he will make about $2 million less than Storen (although the Nationals sent money to Toronto to offset the salaries). Revere brings tons of speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Over the course of about 2,500 at bats, Revere has struck out about 9.9% of the time. To put that in perspective, Denard Span, who I think Nationals fans would agree, rarely struck out, has struck out 12.8% of his at bats. The Nationals are getting a guy who puts the ball in play at an even higher clip than Span, and that's pretty impressive. Between Revere and Murphy, the Nationals just got a lot harder to strike out. That's huge because of the dominant arms they're going to be facing 19 times against the Mets next season. If you can't put the ball in play, nothing good can happen.

For those of you that are still upset about not being able to land Heyward, Zobrist, or Cespedes, please just remember one thing. The 2018-2019 free agent class, which is just three years away, is going to be the greatest of all time. Yes, the Nationals have some deferred money on the books, but luckily, as of today, the Nationals only have two players under contract following the 2018 season (that does not include arbitration eligible players such as Anthony Rendon, Michael Taylor, etc.). Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey, among others are all slated to become free agents in the 2018-2019 offseason. Of course the Nationals want to keep Harper, but it's probably going to take a $400-500 million commitment to make it happen. What's even more scary? The Nationals won't be the only team ready to make that commitment. The Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, and Phillies (yes, the Phillies) among others, all have substantial money coming off the books and will be right there with the Nationals ready to throw money at all of these players, with Harper being the main prize. The point is, the Nationals have to be cognizant of that and that may be the reason they were bargain shopping and not going all in this offseason. Jason Heyward was an exception and it was widely speculated that he would receive an opt-out clause to make him a free agent again prior to 2018-2019, which he did. If you're the Nationals, you want to commit to short term deals. Nothing above three years, which is exactly what they've been able to do this offseason.

Are the Nationals the favorites in the NL East? No, especially not after the Mets landed Cespedes for at least another year. Being the favorite means nothing though. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East last year, but injuries happen and players can under perform. The Nationals are in great position to challenge the Mets for the NL East title. The lineup and the bullpen have both been revamped. Don't forget, the Nationals have two weapons sitting in the minor leagues in Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. These two guys are ready to contribute this year. Turner helps make the lineup even longer and Giolito can slide in between Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez to make the rotation down right scary. If the Nationals want to take back the East, they have to do one thing that the Mets did better than them last year. They have to beat bad teams and they have to beat them a lot. The Mets went 60-30 against National League teams under .500, the Nationals went 53-37 against those same teams. That right there is a seven game difference. The Mets won the NL East by exactly 7 games. Sure the Nationals going 8-11 against the Mets contributes to that as well, I'm not arguing that. If you want a chance at the playoffs though, you have to beat up on the bad teams at an extremely high clip. The Nationals will have 57 games against teams who are rebuilding or not expected to compete next year (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Colorado). That's over 1/3 of the season. You have to win about 70% of those games if you want to consider yourself a contender. The Nationals have the talent to beat those teams 70% of the time, if not higher. If the Nationals can stay healthy and beat the bad teams, this is going to be a fun season and an even more fun battle for the NL East crown.

Dream Big and Make a Splash

The Winter Meetings are officially concluding today in Nashville and the Nationals still have a ton of work to do. If you had told me (or Mike Rizzo for that matter) that the Nationals would leave the Winter Meetings with Yusmeiro Petit as their prize free agent signing, I wouldn't have been too happy. Only walking away with Petit is not for lack of effort, though. The Nationals were one of the finalists to land a personal favorite of mine, Ben Zobrist. In fact, reports have said that the Nationals made the highest contract offer to Zobrist, but in the end, Zobrist wanted to be reunited with his former manager, Joe Maddon. After swinging and missing on Zobrist and Darren O'Day (don't even get me started), Mike Rizzo is still left with some big question marks, both in the bullpen and in the lineup.

Actually, I can't help myself on the Darren O'Day thing. Peter Angelos is a complete tool and probably the worst owner in baseball. He's got money he hasn't even folded yet from this MASN deal, yet he makes sure the Orioles operate like a small market team. He sees the Nationals have interest in one of his free agents and lo and behold, there's Pete swooping in at the last minute to make sure the Nationals don't get a deal done. He offers Chris Davis a contract for a day, then takes it off the table. It reminds me a lot of his contract offer to Mark Teixeira in 2008. The Orioles offered Teixeira 7 years and $150 million. That offer was immediately shot down by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, and Teixeira ended up signing an 8 year $180 million contract with the Yankees. Angelos likes to put on a show for Orioles fans, he likes to tease them a little bit. He makes an offer to a big name player, an offer that he knows isn't market value, then tells fans that he tried. Well, I guess he did try, just not very hard. I truly don't care about the Orioles, it doesn't matter to me whether they win 100 games or win 60 games, but for the sake of Orioles fans around the country, Angelos has got to go.

The Nationals have already made three additions to a bullpen that needed a major overhaul this offseason. Last week, the Nationals signed Oliver Perez to a two year, seven million dollar deal. Perez is a nice lefty to have come out of the bullpen and over the past three seasons, he's struck out over ten batters per nine innings. Another reliever, Shawn Kelley, who the Nationals have reportedly signed to a one year deal, also has struck out over ten batters per nine innings over the past three seasons. Those are impressive numbers and ones that will definitely help the Nationals bullpen, but it still doesn't answer the biggest question. Who is going to set up and who is going to close games? Rizzo insists that he's more than happy to go into next season with Storen setting up and Papelbon closing, but how are you seriously going to welcome Papelbon back after last year? On top of that, Drew Storen has no interest in being here anymore, and I don't blame him. He puts together a dominant first half as the closer and then gets replaced at the trade deadline by a psychopath.

I'm obviously a fan of making up my own deals that I'd like to see happen, but that have a very slim chance of happening. About a month ago, I thought to myself signing Mike Leake would be a good move for the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg is a year away from free agency, and Leake will come somewhat cheap, while eating up some innings for you. I'm still not opposed to signing Leake, but there are a few other directions in which the Nationals could go. Here 's the dream scenario:

1.) The Nationals sign Jason Heyward for 9 years and $190 million with a player opt-out clause after 4 years. The contract is essentially a 4 year $96 million deal (average annual value of $24 million for Heyward) and would allow him to hit free agency again when he turns 30 years old. The Nats in turn get a left handed lead off hitter that plays excellent defense, while not tying up too much money when it's time to offer Bryce $400 million and 30% ownership in the team (keep in mind, Werth's contract is up in two years too), but that's besides the point. This also allows the Nationals to make their next move...

2.) The Nationals trade Michael A. Taylor and Drew Storen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi and Jake McGee. I have no clue why the Rays would make this trade, but Mike Rizzo has been known to surprise before, so let's just imagine that he does. Now the Nationals have freed up the $8.5 million that Storen would be making this upcoming season while acquiring a player who is in his second year of arbitration (McGee, who will probably bring home about $4.5 million) and for a starting pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Now the Nationals have a dominant set up man or closer, whichever spot you'd prefer to use McGee in. McGee has a 2.77 career ERA and has struck out 319 batters in 259 2/3 innings. Getting Odorizzi is a big piece to this though because Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after next season, so Odorizzi provides some insurance should Stras leave. Side note, there's no reason why Strasburg wouldn't leave. Next year's starting pitching market is one of the worst of all time. Stras should have no problem getting $200+ million, but it won't be from the Nationals. The Nationals may consider even trading him this offseason, but only if somebody is willing to give up major league ready pitching for him. Speaking of major league ready pitching, may the Nationals will trade some of it to.....

3.) The Nationals trade AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo to the Cincinnati Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Yeah, I'm going to get some backlash on this one....but I already know that. Here's the deal, the Nats need a bullpen makeover and there are no relievers in free agency that can close games. The only ones available via trade are Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller at this point. Andrew Miller would probably cost the Nationals Strasburg, so why not dangle two top 10 prospects in front of the Reds and see if they take it? Chapman's price is surely ten times lower than it was on Monday morning, so this offer may get the job done. Dusty Baker managed Chapman with the Reds a few years ago, so maybe Dusty can help get this guy's life on track. Trading for Chapman doesn't make what he did ok. Hell, the guy may even be suspended by Major League Baseball for half the year or end up in jail for a period of time and this deal turns out to be a bust. Your other option right now though is Jonathan Papelbon and he isn't exactly a Saint, either.

In the end, the Nationals are spending an additional $24.5 million next year (if you include shedding Yunel Escobar's contract) for Jason Heyward and a dominant bullpen. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the Nationals will also most likely trade Jonathan Papelbon. The problem is, they are most likely going to have to eat most of his $11 million contract for next year, so I'm not going to include any money saved on him for now. Here's how the lineup, rotation, and bullpen could look in this scenario:

Lineup:
1.) Jason Heyward, CF
2.) Jayson Werth, RF
3.) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4.) Bryce Harper, LF
5.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6.) Wilson Ramos, C
7.) Danny Espinosa, 2B
8.) Trea Turner, SS
9.) Max Scherzer, P

Rotation:
1.) Max Scherzer
2.) Stephen Strasburg
3.) Jake Odorizzi
4.) Gio Gonzalez
5.) Tanner Roark/Joe Ross

Bullpen:
1.) Yusmeiro Petit
2.) Felipe Rivero
3.) Shawn Kelley
4.) Oliver Perez
5.) Trevor Gott
6.) Jake McGee
7.) Aroldis Chapman, Closer

Yes, you're seeing that right, there is one returning player coming back to the Nationals bullpen. After what we had to go through last year, that's exactly how it should be. The lineup may not be as impressive as it has in years past, but putting Heyward up top and having Turner's speed at the bottom will definitely help the Nationals score some runs. The rotation is as good as usual and if you can get games to the eighth inning with a lead, I'd take my chances with McGee and Chapman against any team.

Wait, What?

Is this real life? Or is this a bad dream where the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation? Well, I can tell you that yes, it is real life, and yes, the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation. The Lerner family, clearly upset about the outcome of last season, saw this as an opportunity to take some control and stick it to Mike Rizzo, and that's exactly what they did. That leaves us where we are this morning, with Dusty Baker, not Bud Black, as the new manager of the Washington Nationals.

I want to make this abundantly clear before I go any further, I like Dusty Baker, his track record speaks for itself. He gets a bad rap for his handling of a pitching staff, but I'm not sold on that. People will point to his "over usage" of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. The most notable example is Mark Prior. The problem with this argument is that Prior threw 167 2/3 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2002. Baker upped his innings total in 2003 to 234 1/3 including the playoffs in 2003, a difference of almost 67 innings. Sure, that's a big increase in innings, but wait a minute, didn't Terry Collins just do something similar with not just one Mets pitcher, but two? Noah Syndergaard entered the 2015 season having pitched 133 innings (which he did in 2014), or less, in every season of his career. This season Syndergaard pitched 198 2/3 innings including the playoffs, which is a difference of almost 66 innings. Matt Harvey, coming off of Tommy John surgery just pitched 215 2/3 innings this year including the postseason. Not only is that a career high for Harvey, but he's also setting that career high after coming off of major surgery. The point is, lets not jump on Baker for ruining the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Kerry Wood had injury issues before Baker even arrived in Chicago. As for Prior, has anyone ever thought that maybe the guy is just injury prone?

With that being said, if there is one thing that turns me off about hiring Dusty Baker, it's that he believes walks just clog up the bases. As I wrote yesterday, the Nats need to be more like the Royals to dethrone the Mets and to advance in the playoffs. Being more like the Royals means putting the ball in play more and getting more people on base. I don't care if that means via walk, hit, hit by pitch, it doesn't matter. Dusty Baker is an old-school manager though, he likes power, he likes home runs. Fortunately for him, the Nationals can hit a good amount of those. Unfortunately for Nationals fans, the Nationals will most likely finish top three in the Majors in strikeouts because there will not be a change in philosophy. I know Baker wins, but the Mets pitching staff is dominant. If you don't care about on base percentage and walks, you aren't going to beat them.

As for the Lerner family and Mike Rizzo - they should all be ashamed of themselves and completely embarrassed. My initial reaction late last night/early this morning was that this all falls on Rizzo and he should immediately be fired. That won't happen though and as more details come out, that probably shouldn't happen. However, Mike Rizzo is still to blame for this. Following the 2014 season, Rizzo picked up Matt Williams option for the 2016 season. Well, Matt Williams isn't here anymore, but the Lerner family is still on the hook to pay him $1 million for the 2016 season. That $1 million could have been the difference in being able to sign Bud Black and not being able to sign Bud Black, we may never know. It's also Mike Rizzo's job to tell the Lerners that if you want to get "your guy" to be the next manager, you may have to agree to their terms, not your own. For owners that have no problem agreeing to Scott Boras's terms every offseason, I didn't know this would be that big of a pill to swallow. This may not have been about Bud Black though, this may have been all about Dusty Baker and the Lerner family.

It was reported a few days ago that the Lerner family was thoroughly impressed with Dusty Baker and that they actually preferred him to Bud Black. However, Mike Rizzo and a few other front office personnel preferred Black to Baker, so the Nationals went with Black. The Lerner family seems to be of the thought that it doesn't matter who manages the team though, all that matters is that they're shelling out the money to put a contender on the field. That doesn't make too much sense though from a baseball standpoint or a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure Ted Lerner had his best employees working on the development of Tysons Corner, so wouldn't you want the best guy for the job handling one of your biggest investments, the Washington Nationals? From the outside looking in, it seems that Ted Lerner was going to do anything possible to save a few bucks on this managerial hire because he knows he's paying Matt Williams and most likely Jonathan Papelbon next year even though neither will be with the club. A one year offer with multiple team options is insulting to a manager with as much experience as Bud Black. Dusty Baker seemed to be fine with a two year offer with multiple club options, but that's because he wants to get back into managing. Bud Black stood his ground and honestly, with the experience he has, Dusty could have too. The Nationals are on their fourth manager in five years. It's not because the team has failed to meet expectations (except for this year), but it's more so because the Lerners will not commit to one person past two years. It's called Dan Snyder syndrome and it's hard to treat. The Lerner family, with the help of Mike Rizzo, just started the Washington Nationals 2016 offseason in the most embarrassing way possible. It's left fans frustrated, the rest of Major League Baseball scratching their heads, and the Nationals public relations staff with a huge mess.

The Beginning to a Huge Offseason

Just like I thought, the team with the best bullpen won the World Series. Well, sort of. My original prediction was that the Pirates would win the World Series. That didn't exactly turn out so well. The Pirates led the Majors with a 2.67 bullpen ERA, but right behind them were the Kansas City Royals with a 2.72 bullpen ERA. That bullpen was on full display during the World Series. Every game, you just got the feeling that if the Royals starter got them through five innings and they were within three runs, the Royals had a shot. Their bullpen gave up five total runs during the World Series, four of those runs were charged to Franklin Morales in Game 3, which was the only game the Royals lost. It was an absolutely dominating performance.

Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.

Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.

The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.

That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.

The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:

1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.

2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.

3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.

Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.