Is There Any Sense of Urgency?

The effort is pitiful. The bullpen (with a 5.66 ERA) is pitiful. The fundamentals are pitiful. The only thing that has met and even possibly exceeded our expectations is the starting pitching, which sports a 3.35 ERA through 30 games, and yes, that even included new Yankee, A.J. Cole's stinker against the Braves.

The Nationals can almost field a full team of players on the DL at this point. Not only can they almost field a team, but the team they could field would probably beat the team that the Nationals are currently trotting out there every night. I get that we're working without Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy on a nightly basis. I realize that Matt Grace, Koda Glover, Joaquin Benoit (who was supposed to pitch in Glover's place) and we assume Shawn Kelley all being on the DL weakens our bullpen. Throw Brian Goodwin and Victor Robles on top of those seven and you're left wondering how you're even supposed to beat the Marlins right now. 

That doesn't mean you're allowed to play terrible baseball though. You're all still Major Leaguers and you're expected to play like it. Wilmer Difo, with runners on second and third with one out, why are you throwing home on a lightly hit line drive to third? We were conceding the run. All we asked for was an out. Luckily, the Giants didn't score again that inning, but that's bad baseball. Matt Adams, do you hate gifted RBI's? Was Chris Stratton's 91 MPH heater too much for you? When the Giants make two consecutive awful errors to put runners on second and third with one out in a one run game, you have to cash in. Simply put, it's why the Nationals lost the game. Sure, the two run home run in the bottom of the 6th put the game away, but is there a momentum shift if either Matt Adams or Matt Wieters are able to drive in those two runs in the top of the 6th? We'll never know. The Nationals literally told the Giants "no thank you" to two free runs. It's unacceptable. 

The Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more six times in 2016, with their longest losing streak at seven games. In 2017, the Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more four times, with their longest streak at four games, which happened twice. This season, the Nationals have already had losing streaks of three games or more three times, with their longest losing streak at five games. Dusty Baker is laughing somewhere, as he should be. That's not me saying I wish Dusty were back. That's just giving Dusty credit where credit is due. It's tough to get these guys not to press and to play good baseball when they're losing games and when there are so many injuries, but Dusty was able to do it. So far, Dave Martinez is not. That could change, we'll see in the coming months. 

Everybody can keep saying it's only April 24th. That's fine. Matt Williams agrees. There's always tomorrow. Tomorrow will keep coming until September 30th when the Nationals could be headed home for good. No need for any sense of urgency. Let's just tread water for the next month or so. That sounds like a lot of fun for everybody. We can be 19-25 around May 19 with the Dodgers headed to town. Why not dig a bigger hole and see if we can dig out? That way we have to finish the season on a 71-47 run to put us at 90 wins. Maybe we make the playoffs. Maybe we don't. That's a fantastic plan though because 71-47 runs happen all the time in baseball. Just keep treading boys. Can't wait to see Moises Sierra back out there in the 5 hole tonight.

No Sweep, Says Dave Martinez!

The Washington Nationals had a sweep within reach last night in New York. They headed into the series on Monday 6 games back of the division leading Mets and had a fantastic chance to cut it to 3 games. Apparently, Matt Williams....sorry, I mean Dave Martinez had other plans. With the Nationals leading 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning, Martinez summonsed Ryan Madson from the bullpen following 7 strong innings from Tanner Roark. In any normal instance, that would be the logical move. If the Nationals are winning, they go Kintzler, Madson, Doolittle. We've seen it work successfully many times before.

I said out loud last night in the 3rd inning while watching the game "It's going to be interesting to see what Dave Martinez does tonight if the Nationals are winning this game in the 7th or 8th because Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson are unavailable." Fast forward to the 8th inning and here comes Ryan Madson. The same Ryan Madson who has had two Tommy John surgeries in his career. The same Ryan Madson that Dusty Baker would constantly talk about "monitoring his workload". The same Ryan Madson who had pitched in 3 of the Nationals past 4 games, and once he entered the game last night, in 4 of the last 5. The same Ryan Madson who LEADS Major League Baseball with 11 appearances this season. Ryan Madson was set up to fail by his manager last night and there's no way around that.

We've seen more than our share of bullpen blunders over the past few years, but this one is pretty high up there. It goes:

1) Matt Williams pulling Jordan Zimmermann in a 1-0 game in the top of the 9th inning in Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS;

2) Dave Martinez's decision to bring Ryan Madson into his 4th game in 5 days in a 4-2 game in the bottom of the 8th against the Mets where a chance to cut the Mets division lead to 3 games was at stake; and

3) Pretty much every bullpen decision Matt Williams made in 2015.

So, as you can see, this decision ranks fairly high up there. Now, a lot of people believe that Dave Martinez had no choice but to use Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle this often, this early in the season. In part, I'll agree with that. The Nationals have had 1 off day in 19 games since the start of the season. That's absolutely brutal. By comparison, the Mets have had 3 off days already in 17 games (1 was a weather postponement, so they'll make that up, but the number is still 3 nonetheless). It's a lot easier to manage a bullpen with built in off days, there's absolutely no disputing that. What I will disagree with, is that Dave Martinez had to use these guys because there have been so many close games. Madson was used in 3 consecutive losing efforts to the Mets just a week and a half ago. The first of those 3 was an 8-2 loss. He hadn't pitched in 4 days at that point, so I guess that was just getting him some work. Ok, fine. The Nationals proceed to lose the next 2 games by 1 run and Madson pitched the 8th inning of each of those games to keep it close. My real gripe came Saturday against the Rockies when Madson came in to pitch during a 6-2 game. It's not a save situation, nor is it a hold situation. Nope, it's just a game that since the Nationals were winning Dave decided "well, I guess I better use Madson and Doolittle!" Two guys with a history of arm issues and you use them both in an 8-2 loss and a 6-2 win. 

Last night was one of the worst pieces of managing that I've seen in a long time. Madson was gassed. You could see it within the first two batters. Conforto singles and then after getting ahead of Cespedes, he allows him to single as well. His velocity was there, but his location and the movement on his pitches were not. Shawn Kelley was available last night. Shawn Kelley threw 6 pitches on Monday night and then didn't pitch on Tuesday. Shawn Kelley needed to pitch the 8th inning last night. Doolittle was available for the 9th following a 10 pitch save on Tuesday. Ryan Madson should not and quite frankly can not be throwing 26 pitches last night coming off an outing where he threw 21 the night before. If you're dumb enough to bring him into the game in the first place, which Dave Martinez apparently is, you have to have a quick hook. Once he gave up back to back singles, Shawn Kelley or Sammy Solis need to come into the game. Asdrubal Cabrera, who was coming up with Cespedes on first and Conforto on second, is 1 for 5 with 2 K's against Shawn Kelley in his career. Jay Bruce, who was on deck, is 1 for 3 against Kelley and 0 for 4 against Solis in his career. Todd Frazier, who was due up third, is 0 for 6 with 5 K's against Kelley and 0 for 1 with a K against Solis. These numbers were right in front of you last night. You chose to ignore them. It doesn't matter what their career numbers against Madson are because Madson was gassed and at that point was the equivalent of Jacob Turner last night throwing 96 MPH meatballs. Ryan Madson is a great pitcher who deserved better last night. In fact, the Washington Nationals deserved better. 

I can't stress enough how imperative it is that Dave Martinez not use the bullpen like he's been using it. It will end with Madson and Doolittle on the DL with elbow problems and the rest of the bullpen pitching like it did early in 2017 because there will no longer be any defined roles. If he continues to manage the bullpen like he has been, he will not be here very long. He has a 3 year $2.8 million contract. Dusty Baker made $2 million alone last year with the Nationals. If Martinez isn't getting the job done, the Lerners will not hesitate to eat $2 million and bring somebody else in who can get the job done. 

Last tidbit, Dave Martinez did make one good move last night. That was bringing in AJ Cole to a bases loaded situation to face Cespedes. Pedro Severino called for a fastball low and away, Cole threw a 93 MPH fastball a little below the letters and Cespedes belted it for a grand slam. If that was Martinez telling Mike Rizzo that AJ Cole should not be in the Major Leagues, then I applaud him. There's absolutely no reason that AJ Cole should be on the Nationals flight to Los Angeles. It's time to DFA Cole to get a fresh arm in the bullpen. You can bring Trevor Gott back up, who looked very good in his last 4 outings before being sent down. You can bring up Carlos Torres who is a veteran with a lot of Major League experience and who has some long relief experience as well. Or if you're dead set on having strictly a long reliever, you could bring Edwin Jackson back up. Two things that I know for sure though - AJ Cole is not a Major League caliber pitcher for a team with World Series aspirations and Dusty Baker is in San Francisco smiling as he watches this all unfold.

The Mets

Well, the Nationals failed their mission. I asked them to win 2 of 3 from the Braves (which they accomplished) and split with the Rockies. They proceeded to lose 3 of 4 to the Rockies to wrap up a terrible 3-7 homestand. Simply put, the last time I wrote I said don't panic, but you can officially panic. The Mets improved to 12-2 this weekend, putting the 7-9 Nationals 6 games behind the Mets as they head to New York to begin a 3 game series against the Mets. Get swept and you can start thinking about a Wild Card spot as the best case scenario because the N.L. East will be out of reach. It's going to be tough enough to overcome a 6 game deficit, but to fall 9 games behind a good team at any point in the season, well you can chalk it up.

As of last Monday, the Nationals were hitting fairly well, but not pitching well. Now, they're pitching fairly well (minus the bullpen - sound familiar?), but they aren't hitting. They especially aren't hitting with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). Dating back to the Mets series staring April 5th, the Nats are 8 for 47 with RISP.  On April 5th, against the Mets, the Nationals went 1 for 8 with RISP and lost 8-2, Saturday the 7th, they went 2 for 8 and lost 3-2, finally on Sunday the 8th again against the Mets, they went 4 for 17 and lost 6-5. Thursday, they went 0 for 1 and lost 5-1, Friday they went 1 for 5 and lost 2-1 and today, they went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). So, to recap, in 6 of their 7 losses since April 5th, the Nats are hitting .170 with RISP. How are you going to win any games like that?

As if that weren't a big enough problem, the Nationals bullpen is 0-4 with a 4.73 ERA so far this season. Not only are they not very good right now, but they're also overworked. Ryan Madson, Matt Grace, Sean Doolittle and Sammy Solis have each appeared in 8 of the 16 games this season, putting them all on pace to appear in 81 games this season. That would set career highs for each pitcher, two of which have a history of elbow issues. One of the toughest things for a rookie manager to do is to learn how to manage a bullpen. Dave Martinez is clearly no exception. We can only hope he will figure it out before one of those four blows their elbow out. Jeremy Hellickson will reportedly start tomorrow night in New York, which will move A.J. Cole to the bullpen. The Nationals haven't carried a long reliever the past couple of seasons, but it appears that will change. A corresponding move hasn't been announced yet, but Trevor Gott seems like he could be the one on his way out, not necessarily based on performance, but because he still has minor league options remaining. If it is Gott, I wouldn't expect him to be down in AAA for long. He pitched well in 4 of his 5 appearances and could be a fresh arm that the Nationals shuttle between Syracuse and D.C. all season, a lot like they did with Matt Grace the past couple of years.

The Nationals have to take 2 of 3 from the Mets this week. Losing 2 of 3 means you stay in panic mode. If you get swept, you can forget about a division title. Let's hope Anthony Rendon is back in the lineup. Let's hope Ryan Zimmerman is moved down the lineup - I don't care what Martinez, Rizzo or Zimmerman say, that Spring Training experiment was a total disaster. Let's hope the starters pitch deep into games. Let's hope the bullpen does its job. Let's hope we hit better with RISP.  Let's hope we play error free and fundamentally sound baseball for the first time this year. Let's sweep the Mets in New York and show them that we're not going to get buried in April.

Well, here's to hoping.

Already Panic Time?

Since opening the season 4-0, it's been ugly. Really ugly. The Nationals came into the season heavily favored to win their 3rd straight National League East title, but now find themselves 3.5 games out of first place and 1 game below .500 following a 3 game sweep at home at the hands of the New York Mets. Early April isn't the time to worry about how far back in the division you are (unless you dig yourself a 10 game hole), but there's still reason to worry. 

This Nationals team is far from healthy at the moment, with a less than 100% Adam Eaton, no Daniel Murphy and no Matt Wieters (although Pedro Severino has looked very good in his place). That's the odd part though, even without those 3 bats not in the lineup, or at less than 100%, the issue hasn't been putting runs on the board. The Nationals are averaging 5 runs per game over their first 9 games. Granted, they averaged 3 runs per game in this last Mets series and they had multiple opportunities to win that game last night (hello 9th inning, bases loaded and one out). Aside from Thursday's game though, each of the next two games were decided by 1 run. The Nationals lead the National League in home runs and are sixth in batting average. It may not seem like it, but they're hitting the ball well, especially for a team that's played 6 of their 9 games in below 50 degree weather and is without one of it's best hitters.

As a complete side note, the Victor Robles watch is officially on. Michael Taylor's 5 for 30 (with 11 strikeouts) start to the season can only continue on for so long. With a chance to walk off the Mets last night, he struck out with the bases loaded and one out against a guy who doesn't strike many batters out. Right now, we're seeing the Michael Taylor of 2015-2016, not the Michael Taylor of 2017. Robles is off to a 5 for 12 start in AAA, he's ready, the question is, where can he play everyday? Taylor's trade value peaked during the offseason coming off his red-hot NLDS against the Cubs, but you have to wonder if the Nats could package Taylor and AJ Cole for a starter (Danny Duffy of the Royals or Sean Manaea of the Athletics - somebody with some team control past this year).

Speaking of pitching, that's where the majority of the problem lies for the Nationals. Specifically, the starting pitching. The last 5 starts from Nationals starting pitchers are - 3 2/3 IP, 10 ER/ 5 IP, 2 ER (5 runs)/ 6 IP, 4 ER/ 5 1/3 IP 1 ER/ 5 IP, 5 ER - so cumulatively over the past 5 games, that's 0 quality starts, 25 innings pitched, 22 earned runs and 25 runs scored. That comes out to a run an inning. Oh, and that 5 1/3 innings with 1 earned run, no, that wasn't Max Scherzer, that was Gio Gonzalez. 

Over in the bullpen, something that is just as worrisome, if not more worrisome, is that Brandon Kintzler apparently forgot how to pitch during the offseason. Kintzler is now 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA in the 4 games he's appeared in. Did Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley switch bodies? Shawn Kelley is looking a lot like his old self while Kintzler is serving up meatballs a lot like Kelley was doing in 2017. If we can get Kintzler back on track and keep Kelley and Sammy Solis throwing the way they are throwing, this has the making of a very good bullpen. If Kintzler can't get back on track, then the starters, who are already off to a rocky start, are going to have a lot more weight on their shoulders. 

Again, this is all a very small sample size that's under a gigantic microscope because it's all we have right now. The Nationals (and most teams) go on a couple of 4-6 ten game stretches per year. This, however, seems like a squandered opportunity. Opening the season against 3 teams that lost 90+ games last year and going 4-5 in that stretch just isn't going to cut it. The schedule gets tougher to end the month, with the Rockies coming to town, then the Nats hit the road to play the Mets, Dodgers and Giants before ending the month back at home against the Diamondbacks. 

It's surely not panic time yet, but you don't want to be 6-7 games behind a red hot Mets team, who's schedule is more than generous the rest of the month, at the beginning of May. So, in a season where most of us expected a cake walk to a division title, it's time to go back to the basics. Baby steps. Let's win the series against Atlanta and at least split with the Rockies this weekend (although, 3 of 4 would be ideal). 

We Made It

We're just days away from Opening Day and it feels so good. After a long winter, it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride. The 2018 Washington Nationals are largely the same team as the 2017 Washington Nationals. That should be good enough for a fifth National League East title in seven years, and the third straight. Should is the key word. The New York Mets could challenge the Nationals if their pitching staff can stay healthy and the Philadelphia Phillies could be a surprise contender, a lot like the 2012 Nationals were. It's going to be a tougher division than it was in 2017 (which isn't saying much), but the Nationals remain the clear favorite.

The Nationals will be without Jayson Werth for the first time since 2011. Werth was a key member in helping turn this franchise around and establishing the winning culture that exists today. Aside from Werth, the Nationals let Matt Albers, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Jose Lobaton, Oliver Perez, Joe Blanton, and of course, Dusty Baker walk in free agency. All were replaceable, though you'd expect Albers departure to hurt the most. Dave Martinez is now the manager tasked with getting this team through to the NLCS, if not further. Interestingly enough, Martinez was a front runner for the Nationals job back in 2014, when the Nationals decided to go with Matt Williams instead. What a fantastic decision that was!

There aren't many glaring weaknesses with this team, but there are definitely big concerns. There are bigger concerns with the Nationals than there are with any of the other five "Super Teams" as many analysts are calling them (the other Super Teams being the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Astros). The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are at catcher and the 5th starter. These are both positions where the Nationals may hypothetically have to improve upon during the season. The hope of course, is that between A.J. Cole and Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals won't have to worry about the 5th starter. That's entirely possible considering the Nationals won 97 games last year with their 5th starters combining to have an ERA north of 5.00. So if the Nationals can have either A.J. Cole or Jeremy Hellickson throw 170-180 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 4's, they're going to be fine. As far as behind the plate, the Nationals are heading into the season with Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero. From everything we've heard, Matt Wieters is in the best shape of his career and is really benefiting from working with new Nationals hitting coach, Kevin Long. Should we expect Wieters to have a career year? Probably not. But he should surely improve upon the .225/.288/.344 slash line he put up last season, all which were career worsts. Montero, the 11 year left-handed hitting veteran will back Wieters up. Montero's bat isn't what it used to be, but he still calls a good game behind the plate and has some pop in his bat. He hit .216 last season between the Cubs and Blue Jays, which isn't great, but considering Jose Lobaton hit .170 last year and has an even bigger noodle arm than Montero, I'll take it.

As essentially anybody with a brain who covers baseball has noted, this is a pivotal season for the Nationals franchise. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, Matt Wieters, Shawn Kelley and most of all, Mike Rizzo will all be free agents after this season. If there was ever a time to go for it all, it's now (and no, that doesn't mean Victor Robles becomes tradable, but just about everybody else does). In terms of the financial impact heading into next offseason, the Nationals have nearly $79 million in payroll coming off the books next year, $72 million of that will come off their “luxury tax payroll”, which they are currently about $7.1 million over, meaning they will pay about $2.13 million in overages. The tax threshold goes up $9 million next year, so the Nationals will really have about $81 million to work with next offseason to stay under the cap, which they will absolutely be aiming to do. The point in saying that is that the Nationals will be able to comfortably get under the luxury tax next year, while also keeping their payroll around the same (if that's the goal). If there is a player out there right now that can help this team win this year, go get them. The financial impact is irrelevant. The team is already over the luxury tax and is going to have to pay 30% on the overages. Adding a stud starting pitcher or another dominant bullpen arm mid-season surely isn't going to push the Lerner's into bankruptcy. Mike Rizzo and the Lerner's only job this season is to make sure this team has the best chance to win come October, Davey Martinez and the players will take care of the rest.

Bonus Predictions:

AL EAST                                                                             NL EAST

New York: 95-67                                                                  Washington: 94-68

Boston: 92-70                                                                       New York: 87-75

Baltimore: 85-77                                                                   Philadelphia: 83-79

Toronto: 80-82                                                                      Atlanta: 75-87

Tampa Bay: 73-89                                                                Miami: 60-102

AL CENTRAL                                                                     NL CENTRAL

Cleveland: 96-66                                                                 Chicago: 96-66

Minnesota: 87-75                                                                 Milwaukee: 86-76

Chicago: 74-88                                                                    St. Louis: 85-77

Kansas City: 72-90                                                              Cincinnati: 74-88

Detroit: 64-98                                                                       Pittsburgh: 63-99

AL WEST                                                                             NL WEST

Houston: 99-63                                                                     Los Angeles: 94-68

Los Angeles: 86-76                                                               Arizona: 90-72

Seattle: 83-79                                                                       Colorado: 86-76

Texas: 76-86                                                                         San Francisco: 77-85

Oakland: 75-87                                                                     San Diego: 75-87

PLAYOFFS:

WILDCARD:

Boston over Minnesota

NY Mets over Arizona

DIVISIONAL SERIES:

Houston over Boston

Cleveland over New York

Washington over LA Dodgers

Chicago Cubs over NY Mets

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:

Houston over Cleveland

Chicago Cubs over Washington

WORLD SERIES:

Houston over Chicago Cubs

Go Get Realmuto

We are 19 days from pitchers and catchers reporting. Guys like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and JD Martinez are still free agents – but the real news is baseball is less than one month away. It’s been a bizarre offseason. Everybody wants to find a way to get below the luxury tax prior to next offseason, so in turn, very few teams want to spend any money. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs are all below the luxury tax and are planning on keeping it that way. The only two teams currently projected to be over the luxury tax are the Nationals and the Red Sox.  

It’s widely known that next offseason projects to be one of the biggest offseason’s in Major League Baseball history. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Daniel Murphy and Clayton Kershaw, among many others, are all expected to hit the market. Money is going to be flying around. But, that leaves the big name free agents of this offseason wondering where all the money is. Chances are, a couple of the big market teams (the Cubs, Phillies – who have a projected payroll of just $84 million, Cardinals, etc.) or maybe even a couple small market teams (based on what we saw last night from the Brewers) will open up the checkbook and sign the big name free agents left on the market, possibly even at a bargain rate. If there are some bargains out there though, expect the Nationals to be involved.

The Nationals are already over the luxury tax and have almost no shot of getting under it. They will be taxed at a rate of 30% on any overage. Right now, their overage is about $4.6 million, meaning they would be taxed a little under $1.4 million. That’s certainly not chump change, but it’s not putting a dent in the Lerner’s pocket either. Between Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, Ryan Madson, and Shawn Kelley, the Nationals clear about $100 million of payroll next offseason. Even if you offer Bryce Harper a $40 million per year contract at the end of the season, you’ve still cleared about $60 million (realistically more like $15-20 million after you go through arbitration and sign other free agents to fill out the roster). Bottom line being - you’ll be under the luxury tax next year.

You’re in an offseason where the big spenders are standing pat for the most part. You are one offseason before your franchise cornerstone hits free agency. If there is one time where the Lerners go for the jugular, it should be now. As of today, the Nationals essentially have their 2017 playoff roster back intact, minus Jayson Werth, but with the addition of Adam Eaton. They’ve resigned Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick to team friendly deals. The only areas that could use a potential boost are catcher, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Could the Nationals coast into the playoffs with Matt Wieters starting 130+ games and a combination of AJ Cole, Edwin Jackson, and Erick Fedde starting 30+ games as the 5th starter? Of course they can. That doesn’t make it ideal, especially once the playoffs roll around.

  

After the Marlins continued their fire sale last night by dealing Christian Yelich to the Brewers, rumors started popping up that the Nationals are the front runners to acquire JT Realmuto. This is a deal that has to get done. It's that simple. Trading within your division can be difficult, but both teams are in completely different places right now and both have incentive to get a deal done. As we know, the Nationals are over the luxury tax as is, and with Realmuto projected to make about $3.2 million in arbitration this season, that would put the Nationals at about $7.8 million over the luxury tax. But what if we could actually reduce how far the Nationals are over the luxury tax with this trade? The Marlins are demanding top prospects in return for Realmuto (as they should). However, right now they want Victor Robles as a headliner, which just isn't going to happen. According to Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post, Mike Rizzo is also refusing to discuss Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, or Juan Soto in any trade (although it's odd to me why Anthony Rendon was even mentioned). Let's say that Rizzo agrees to trade Juan Soto as a headliner in a Realmuto deal. By including Soto, who is the Nationals 2nd best prospect, and a top 50 prospect in MLB, could Rizzo then attach Matt Wieters $10.5 million contract to this deal as a salary dump? Obviously, the Marlins wouldn't take Soto and Wieters for Realmuto, but something like Soto, Wieters, Erick Fedde, and either Raudy Read or Pedro Severino for Realmuto and Junichi Tazawa could work. This gives the Marlins 3 of the Nationals top 10 or so prospects, while the Nationals get a young, talented, controllable catcher and about $1.2 million in salary relief. For comparison, the Marlins just acquired the Brewers top prospect, 5th best, 9th best, and one unranked prospect for 5 years of control of Christian Yelich. Yelich comes with more control and is an overall better hitter than Realmuto, so it should come as no surprise that the Marlins would get less for Realmuto than they would for Yellich. I think the Marlins could be convinced to take Wieters, but only if Tazawa is in the deal, since Tazawa is owed $7 million this year. Tazawa would provide very little to the Nationals, but he is another right handed reliever that could compete for a bullpen spot at the very least. If the Marlins won't bite on taking Wieters back, then maybe Rizzo takes Soto off the table and offers Fedde, Daniel Johnson, and Read or Severino for Realmuto. In that scenario, the Marlins still would receive the Nationals 4th, 7th, and 10th best prospects. 

The Nationals could also just decide to go the free agency route, in which case Alex Avila would be a nice option. He could start 70-80 games, while Wieters starts the other 80-90.  Avila is also a left-handed hitter, and although Matt Wieters is a switch hitter, he hits about .30 points higher as a right-handed batter. Some sort of platoon could be very beneficial. As far as the fifth starter goes, you could look to bring in Jaime Garcia or John Lackey. Both Garcia and Lackey know Nationals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist very well from their time together in St. Louis and neither would be looking for a big commitment as far as years and dollars go. If you're looking for a final bullpen piece, then familiar faces in Matt Albers and Matt Belisle are available and would most likely only require a one year commitment on the cheaper side ($2-3 million). The options are out there, it's just a matter of what kind of money is left in the budget.

On the other hand, if the Nationals decide that they don't need to upgrade anywhere else heading into this season, locking up free agent to be, Mike Rizzo, might not be a bad end to the offseason either.

Why the Man Crush?

Give me a break. Go ahead and ask Thom Loverro, Bob Nightengale, and Jon Heyman among many others what they thought about the Nationals’ decision to not bring Dusty Baker back next season. Just go ahead and ask them, I dare you. You’ll leave the conversation thinking that the Nationals front office just stabbed Babe Ruth in the throat with a dirty pair of scissors. But no that’s not what happened, they just let Dusty Baker’s contract expire, that’s all. Did the Nationals handle Dusty’s departure correctly? No, not by any means. They let him hang around D.C. for seven days after the season ended, expecting that an extension would be reached, then let him go back to California only to inform him he had been let go. But that’s not Loverro, Nightengale, or Heyman’s gripe. Their gripe is that Dusty Baker does not have a job. I’m sick of it. If you didn’t watch the Nationals for at least 100+ games during the regular season and catch every single postseason game, then your opinion is completely irrelevant. That makes all but one of those guys (Loverro) irrelevant in this conversation. I’m fairly certain that Loverro has a huge man crush on Dusty Baker, so he is essentially irrelevant as well.

Dusty Baker does not have a job on October 27, 2017 because of his inability to manage in the playoffs. It is not because Dusty Baker is a bad manager. In fact, the Nationals will probably never find another manager who can navigate his way through a 162-game season the way Baker can. They will probably never find another manager who is capable of connecting with the players and the media at a level that Baker can. But Dusty Baker led the Nationals one game further than his predecessor, Matt Williams, who was a complete disaster and is completely incapable of managing a Major League Baseball team. Baker did not get this team to a National League Championship Series, he did not get this team to a World Series. In fact, I wrote a week ago about how inept Dusty is at managing in the playoffs. He manages playoff games the same way he would manage a regular season game on May 27th against the Padres. He, among other things, decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo multiple times with first base open and use Sammy Solis in extremely big parts of games. But Joe Torre and Major League Baseball dropped a bomb on us last night. Enjoy that right here. THAT is why Dusty Baker does not have a job.

But nobody wants to talk about Dusty’s mistakes. They want to talk about how great of a guy he is. Which is fine, but there are a lot of great guys in baseball that deserve managerial jobs. So now, we’re here watching as the Nationals get crucified for a managerial decision that is eerily similar to the Red Sox firing of John Ferrell or the Yankees dismissal of Joe Girardi. Oh wait, no it’s not, both of those guys won World Series championships for their respective clubs. But neither of them are as friendly or have the baseball pedigree of Dusty Baker, so it’s ok that they were let go. It’s asinine. For parts of the Nationals-Cubs series, the players failed Dusty Baker, but in Game 5, Dusty Baker failed the players. It’s ok that none of the big-time sports writers want to discuss that though.

The Nationals ownership group has a history of being noncommittal to managers. It’s who they are, it’s what they believe in. I wrote about it almost two years ago to the day (check it out if you want). It’s the reason that Dusty Baker was the Nationals manager in the first place after they offered a 1 year $1.6 million contract to Bud Black. I mean, did they really think Black was going to say “Ok, sounds like a fair deal”? So we’re back to where we were following the 2013 season, and back to where we were following the 2015 season. This time, the Lerners have a chance to make it right. It’s time to show baseball that you do value managers and that you’re willing to make a commitment to the position. Joseph Elliott Girardi was let go by the New York Yankees yesterday morning. He is the exact man that the Nationals need to lead them to the next level. Don’t get me wrong, if Girardi doesn’t want the job and wants to sit out a year or two to spend time with his family, then that’s his choice to make. I’m sure that Dave Martinez (believed to be the Nationals top candidate as of yesterday) will make a fine manager. But the Lerners and Mike Rizzo must circle Joe Girardi’s name and say this is our guy.  Fly him out to DC on a private plane, wine and dine him, and offer him the job. If he declines, you move on knowing that you made your pitch. A pitch which will have included a four-year contract offer. A pitch which will have included a $4-5 million per year salary. The Lerners agreed to pay Joe Blanton $4 million last season, I’m sure they can splurge and pay a guy like Girardi the same.

In 2015, the Nationals needed the anti-Matt Williams and Dusty Baker fit the role well, restoring peace to the Nationals clubhouse. The Nationals don't need an anti-Dusty Baker, which is good because Joe Girardi isn't an anti-Dusty Baker, but the two are still very different. Both are extremely hard-working men and love what they do. Both are extremely well prepared. Both know and understand the game. Both are well respected by their players. But, while Dusty Baker manages every game like it’s May 27th, former Yankee, Mark Teixeira, was quoted in the New York post as saying “He (Girardi) manages every game like its Game 7.” The Nationals need somebody like that. They need intensity. They need urgency. Will Bryce Harper be here in 2019? Odds are, no he won’t, so it’s time to put the pedal to the metal.

GO GET JOE GIRARDI.