Potentially Franchise Altering Offseason

I figured I would let a couple of days pass before circling back around. I’ve been relentless on managers since I started writing. At the time, who could blame me, Matt Williams was the man at the helm just making poor decision after poor decision. There is no doubt about it, we’ve come a long way since then. Dusty Baker has been an immeasurable upgrade over Matt Williams. The players respect him and he’s a winner, at least in the regular season he is. But is Dusty the man who can lead the Nationals to the NLCS or even possibly the World Series? It’s truly debatable. There are those who love Dusty, both inside the clubhouse and out and think he is the guy who can lead this team to the next level. Then there are those who think if this team wants to take the next step, he’s got to go. I lean more towards the latter, but regardless of that, I’m fairly certain Dusty will end up back in the dugout for another year or two.

There are a couple of issues that make this a complex situation. First and foremost, if this team wasn’t entering the biggest offseason of their 12-year existence, this would be a no brainer, Dusty Baker would be back probably under a two or three-year contract. With Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Madson, among others, set to leave after the 2018 season, the Nationals have one more shot to bring a World Series back to Washington.

Which brings us to the Cubs series last week, which if you watched, you would have seen that Dusty Baker made a couple of terrible moves in pivotal moments, especially in Games 3 and 5. We touched on Dusty’s mistakes in Game 3 last week. He opted not to walk Anthony Rizzo with first base open and a runner in scoring position. In this situation, it wasn’t that he necessarily had the wrong pitcher out there to face Rizzo (we’ll get to that in a second), it was that he didn’t want to walk Rizzo and instead face Willson Contreras. Rizzo had already burned Dusty in Game 1. Contreras at that point in the series was 1 for 6, not to mention, Contreras was 0 for 5 career against our entire bullpen. That’s a very small sample size, but I’ll still take my chances. Instead, Oliver Perez faces Rizzo, Rizzo bloops in a single, screams about how he wants to be respected, and the Cubs win a game that Max Scherzer had a no hitter going into the 7th inning. But wait, let’s backtrack a second. Remember I said Oliver Perez wasn’t necessarily the wrong choice to face Rizzo? Well, he wasn’t. Rizzo was 2 for 7 against Perez, so Perez has had some success, the problem was, Rizzo was 0 for 3 combined against Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle, who also happen to be the Nationals three best relievers. It would be one thing if this were the only time Dusty did this, but in the 7th inning of a 1-0 game, Dusty decided he needed to bring in a left hander to face Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber had hit a rocket off of Max Scherzer in his prior at bat, so I’m actually with Dusty on this one. With the game on the line, he had to go get Max. But, again, instead of going to one of his top three relievers, Dusty goes to Sammy Solis, who doesn’t belong in a tie game, or a game in which the Nationals are leading. Joe Maddon counters with the right-handed Albert Almora, and Almora comes up with the big hit to tie the game. Almora hit .342 against left handers in 2017. When you went to a lefty, did you really think Maddon would leave the left handed hitting Schwarber in there? You couldn’t have. Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson most likely get you out of that inning without any damage being done. Schwarber was 0 for 2 with a strikeout against Madson for those wondering, although he had never faced Kintzler. Dusty didn’t stop there though, in an 8-6 game on Thursday, his confusing loyalty to Sammy Solis reared its ugly head again. Solis was called on to pitch the 7th inning and after getting one out, he gave up a rocket single off the wall to Schwarber - what a coincidence since in Game 3 Dusty wanted Solis to face Schwarber but Maddon pulled Schwarber in favor of Albert Almora – followed by another hit by Jon Jay. It’s astounding that in huge spots, not once, but twice, Dusty used his seventh best bullpen option instead of going to one of his top three options.

Sure, the bats didn’t come alive until the 8^th inning of Games 2 and 4 and then throughout Game 5, but the Cubs had the same problem. In close games like the Nationals and Cubs played in all 5 games, managing and umpiring is under the microscope. Fortunately, the umpiring wasn’t terrible until Game 5. Unfortunately, in Game 5 both the umpiring and Dusty’s managing were questionable at best.

That leaves us here, trying to figure out what minor adjustments need to be made to make sure the outcome is different next year. As I said, the Dusty situation is tricky. Who can Mike Rizzo bring in that could do a better job? There aren’t a whole lot of options as far as experienced managers go. You could take a look at John Farrell, who was just fired by the Boston Red Sox. He’s won a World Series, but he’s also been bounced from the playoffs in the first round the past two years. Not to mention, there are rumors coming out of Boston that the clubhouse didn’t like him and lost respect for him. After the Matt Williams debacle, I can’t imagine Mike Rizzo hiring somebody who has had problems with a clubhouse. Then you have Ron Gardenhire, who was considered for the job two years ago before Dusty was hired. Gardenhire is fine, but he’s no better than Dusty. He may actually be slightly worse. He has less playoff success than Dusty, which I didn’t even realize was possible. My favorite candidate is Joe Girardi. But who’s to say Girardi leaves New York? They have a more promising future than New York, and if he wants the chance to manage Bryce Harper, he can just wait another year. If Girardi happens to step down at the end of the season, I don’t see him taking another job immediately, which is a bummer for Washington, because he’s the perfect guy for the job. The last experienced candidate that could be considered is Mike Redmond, who managed an absolute dog mess of a Marlins team to a 77-85 record in 2014. Redmond has no playoff experience though, so is he necessarily a better option than Dusty? Probably not. Short of Joe Girardi, there are no experienced managers out there who are an upgrade over Dusty. You could take a shot in the dark like the Dodgers did two years ago and go with Alex Cora or Dave Martinez. It turned into gold for the Dodgers, but who’s to say it would work for the Nats? Expect Dusty to be back. It’s nothing to be excited about, but it’s also not the worst thing.

Besides Dusty, the next biggest thing facing the Nationals this offseason is whether or not they able to resign anybody set to hit free agency next year? Bryce Harper already has one foot out the door, Gio Gonzalez is most likely gone as well. But can the Nationals extend Daniel Murphy for another year or two? Going into the final season of a 3 year $37.5 million deal, would Murph take a 2 year $30 million extension to stay with the Nats? It’s definitely something to explore. Notice I said Bryce Harper has one foot out the door. Expect Mike Rizzo to quietly shop Bryce at the Winter Meetings and throughout the offseason. Would the loser of the ALCS, either Houston or New York, make an offer that Mike Rizzo can’t refuse and go all in for one year? Could Rizzo turn down an Astros offer centered around their top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and Derek Fisher, who made his Major League debut this year? What if the Yankees offered Dellin Betances and top prospect Clint Frazier, who also made his Major League debut this year. I don’t know that either of those teams make an offer that strong, but if they do, I would expect to see Bryce Harper in another uniform next season. Unless the Lerners and Mike Rizzo get some sort of sign from Scott Boras that Bryce Harper is interested in staying in Washington past this season, you have to consider dealing him. If you’re Mike Rizzo, you’re at a crossroads. Bryce Harper surely can help you win a World Series, but you also don’t want to let him walk away and get nothing in return. This team is good enough to win the division without Bryce Harper, but is it good enough to win in the playoffs without him? Insert Victor Robles and it just might be.