The Mets

Well, the Nationals failed their mission. I asked them to win 2 of 3 from the Braves (which they accomplished) and split with the Rockies. They proceeded to lose 3 of 4 to the Rockies to wrap up a terrible 3-7 homestand. Simply put, the last time I wrote I said don't panic, but you can officially panic. The Mets improved to 12-2 this weekend, putting the 7-9 Nationals 6 games behind the Mets as they head to New York to begin a 3 game series against the Mets. Get swept and you can start thinking about a Wild Card spot as the best case scenario because the N.L. East will be out of reach. It's going to be tough enough to overcome a 6 game deficit, but to fall 9 games behind a good team at any point in the season, well you can chalk it up.

As of last Monday, the Nationals were hitting fairly well, but not pitching well. Now, they're pitching fairly well (minus the bullpen - sound familiar?), but they aren't hitting. They especially aren't hitting with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). Dating back to the Mets series staring April 5th, the Nats are 8 for 47 with RISP.  On April 5th, against the Mets, the Nationals went 1 for 8 with RISP and lost 8-2, Saturday the 7th, they went 2 for 8 and lost 3-2, finally on Sunday the 8th again against the Mets, they went 4 for 17 and lost 6-5. Thursday, they went 0 for 1 and lost 5-1, Friday they went 1 for 5 and lost 2-1 and today, they went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). So, to recap, in 6 of their 7 losses since April 5th, the Nats are hitting .170 with RISP. How are you going to win any games like that?

As if that weren't a big enough problem, the Nationals bullpen is 0-4 with a 4.73 ERA so far this season. Not only are they not very good right now, but they're also overworked. Ryan Madson, Matt Grace, Sean Doolittle and Sammy Solis have each appeared in 8 of the 16 games this season, putting them all on pace to appear in 81 games this season. That would set career highs for each pitcher, two of which have a history of elbow issues. One of the toughest things for a rookie manager to do is to learn how to manage a bullpen. Dave Martinez is clearly no exception. We can only hope he will figure it out before one of those four blows their elbow out. Jeremy Hellickson will reportedly start tomorrow night in New York, which will move A.J. Cole to the bullpen. The Nationals haven't carried a long reliever the past couple of seasons, but it appears that will change. A corresponding move hasn't been announced yet, but Trevor Gott seems like he could be the one on his way out, not necessarily based on performance, but because he still has minor league options remaining. If it is Gott, I wouldn't expect him to be down in AAA for long. He pitched well in 4 of his 5 appearances and could be a fresh arm that the Nationals shuttle between Syracuse and D.C. all season, a lot like they did with Matt Grace the past couple of years.

The Nationals have to take 2 of 3 from the Mets this week. Losing 2 of 3 means you stay in panic mode. If you get swept, you can forget about a division title. Let's hope Anthony Rendon is back in the lineup. Let's hope Ryan Zimmerman is moved down the lineup - I don't care what Martinez, Rizzo or Zimmerman say, that Spring Training experiment was a total disaster. Let's hope the starters pitch deep into games. Let's hope the bullpen does its job. Let's hope we hit better with RISP.  Let's hope we play error free and fundamentally sound baseball for the first time this year. Let's sweep the Mets in New York and show them that we're not going to get buried in April.

Well, here's to hoping.

Already Panic Time?

Since opening the season 4-0, it's been ugly. Really ugly. The Nationals came into the season heavily favored to win their 3rd straight National League East title, but now find themselves 3.5 games out of first place and 1 game below .500 following a 3 game sweep at home at the hands of the New York Mets. Early April isn't the time to worry about how far back in the division you are (unless you dig yourself a 10 game hole), but there's still reason to worry. 

This Nationals team is far from healthy at the moment, with a less than 100% Adam Eaton, no Daniel Murphy and no Matt Wieters (although Pedro Severino has looked very good in his place). That's the odd part though, even without those 3 bats not in the lineup, or at less than 100%, the issue hasn't been putting runs on the board. The Nationals are averaging 5 runs per game over their first 9 games. Granted, they averaged 3 runs per game in this last Mets series and they had multiple opportunities to win that game last night (hello 9th inning, bases loaded and one out). Aside from Thursday's game though, each of the next two games were decided by 1 run. The Nationals lead the National League in home runs and are sixth in batting average. It may not seem like it, but they're hitting the ball well, especially for a team that's played 6 of their 9 games in below 50 degree weather and is without one of it's best hitters.

As a complete side note, the Victor Robles watch is officially on. Michael Taylor's 5 for 30 (with 11 strikeouts) start to the season can only continue on for so long. With a chance to walk off the Mets last night, he struck out with the bases loaded and one out against a guy who doesn't strike many batters out. Right now, we're seeing the Michael Taylor of 2015-2016, not the Michael Taylor of 2017. Robles is off to a 5 for 12 start in AAA, he's ready, the question is, where can he play everyday? Taylor's trade value peaked during the offseason coming off his red-hot NLDS against the Cubs, but you have to wonder if the Nats could package Taylor and AJ Cole for a starter (Danny Duffy of the Royals or Sean Manaea of the Athletics - somebody with some team control past this year).

Speaking of pitching, that's where the majority of the problem lies for the Nationals. Specifically, the starting pitching. The last 5 starts from Nationals starting pitchers are - 3 2/3 IP, 10 ER/ 5 IP, 2 ER (5 runs)/ 6 IP, 4 ER/ 5 1/3 IP 1 ER/ 5 IP, 5 ER - so cumulatively over the past 5 games, that's 0 quality starts, 25 innings pitched, 22 earned runs and 25 runs scored. That comes out to a run an inning. Oh, and that 5 1/3 innings with 1 earned run, no, that wasn't Max Scherzer, that was Gio Gonzalez. 

Over in the bullpen, something that is just as worrisome, if not more worrisome, is that Brandon Kintzler apparently forgot how to pitch during the offseason. Kintzler is now 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA in the 4 games he's appeared in. Did Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley switch bodies? Shawn Kelley is looking a lot like his old self while Kintzler is serving up meatballs a lot like Kelley was doing in 2017. If we can get Kintzler back on track and keep Kelley and Sammy Solis throwing the way they are throwing, this has the making of a very good bullpen. If Kintzler can't get back on track, then the starters, who are already off to a rocky start, are going to have a lot more weight on their shoulders. 

Again, this is all a very small sample size that's under a gigantic microscope because it's all we have right now. The Nationals (and most teams) go on a couple of 4-6 ten game stretches per year. This, however, seems like a squandered opportunity. Opening the season against 3 teams that lost 90+ games last year and going 4-5 in that stretch just isn't going to cut it. The schedule gets tougher to end the month, with the Rockies coming to town, then the Nats hit the road to play the Mets, Dodgers and Giants before ending the month back at home against the Diamondbacks. 

It's surely not panic time yet, but you don't want to be 6-7 games behind a red hot Mets team, who's schedule is more than generous the rest of the month, at the beginning of May. So, in a season where most of us expected a cake walk to a division title, it's time to go back to the basics. Baby steps. Let's win the series against Atlanta and at least split with the Rockies this weekend (although, 3 of 4 would be ideal). 

We Made It

We're just days away from Opening Day and it feels so good. After a long winter, it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride. The 2018 Washington Nationals are largely the same team as the 2017 Washington Nationals. That should be good enough for a fifth National League East title in seven years, and the third straight. Should is the key word. The New York Mets could challenge the Nationals if their pitching staff can stay healthy and the Philadelphia Phillies could be a surprise contender, a lot like the 2012 Nationals were. It's going to be a tougher division than it was in 2017 (which isn't saying much), but the Nationals remain the clear favorite.

The Nationals will be without Jayson Werth for the first time since 2011. Werth was a key member in helping turn this franchise around and establishing the winning culture that exists today. Aside from Werth, the Nationals let Matt Albers, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Jose Lobaton, Oliver Perez, Joe Blanton, and of course, Dusty Baker walk in free agency. All were replaceable, though you'd expect Albers departure to hurt the most. Dave Martinez is now the manager tasked with getting this team through to the NLCS, if not further. Interestingly enough, Martinez was a front runner for the Nationals job back in 2014, when the Nationals decided to go with Matt Williams instead. What a fantastic decision that was!

There aren't many glaring weaknesses with this team, but there are definitely big concerns. There are bigger concerns with the Nationals than there are with any of the other five "Super Teams" as many analysts are calling them (the other Super Teams being the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Astros). The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are at catcher and the 5th starter. These are both positions where the Nationals may hypothetically have to improve upon during the season. The hope of course, is that between A.J. Cole and Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals won't have to worry about the 5th starter. That's entirely possible considering the Nationals won 97 games last year with their 5th starters combining to have an ERA north of 5.00. So if the Nationals can have either A.J. Cole or Jeremy Hellickson throw 170-180 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 4's, they're going to be fine. As far as behind the plate, the Nationals are heading into the season with Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero. From everything we've heard, Matt Wieters is in the best shape of his career and is really benefiting from working with new Nationals hitting coach, Kevin Long. Should we expect Wieters to have a career year? Probably not. But he should surely improve upon the .225/.288/.344 slash line he put up last season, all which were career worsts. Montero, the 11 year left-handed hitting veteran will back Wieters up. Montero's bat isn't what it used to be, but he still calls a good game behind the plate and has some pop in his bat. He hit .216 last season between the Cubs and Blue Jays, which isn't great, but considering Jose Lobaton hit .170 last year and has an even bigger noodle arm than Montero, I'll take it.

As essentially anybody with a brain who covers baseball has noted, this is a pivotal season for the Nationals franchise. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, Matt Wieters, Shawn Kelley and most of all, Mike Rizzo will all be free agents after this season. If there was ever a time to go for it all, it's now (and no, that doesn't mean Victor Robles becomes tradable, but just about everybody else does). In terms of the financial impact heading into next offseason, the Nationals have nearly $79 million in payroll coming off the books next year, $72 million of that will come off their “luxury tax payroll”, which they are currently about $7.1 million over, meaning they will pay about $2.13 million in overages. The tax threshold goes up $9 million next year, so the Nationals will really have about $81 million to work with next offseason to stay under the cap, which they will absolutely be aiming to do. The point in saying that is that the Nationals will be able to comfortably get under the luxury tax next year, while also keeping their payroll around the same (if that's the goal). If there is a player out there right now that can help this team win this year, go get them. The financial impact is irrelevant. The team is already over the luxury tax and is going to have to pay 30% on the overages. Adding a stud starting pitcher or another dominant bullpen arm mid-season surely isn't going to push the Lerner's into bankruptcy. Mike Rizzo and the Lerner's only job this season is to make sure this team has the best chance to win come October, Davey Martinez and the players will take care of the rest.

Bonus Predictions:

AL EAST                                                                             NL EAST

New York: 95-67                                                                  Washington: 94-68

Boston: 92-70                                                                       New York: 87-75

Baltimore: 85-77                                                                   Philadelphia: 83-79

Toronto: 80-82                                                                      Atlanta: 75-87

Tampa Bay: 73-89                                                                Miami: 60-102

AL CENTRAL                                                                     NL CENTRAL

Cleveland: 96-66                                                                 Chicago: 96-66

Minnesota: 87-75                                                                 Milwaukee: 86-76

Chicago: 74-88                                                                    St. Louis: 85-77

Kansas City: 72-90                                                              Cincinnati: 74-88

Detroit: 64-98                                                                       Pittsburgh: 63-99

AL WEST                                                                             NL WEST

Houston: 99-63                                                                     Los Angeles: 94-68

Los Angeles: 86-76                                                               Arizona: 90-72

Seattle: 83-79                                                                       Colorado: 86-76

Texas: 76-86                                                                         San Francisco: 77-85

Oakland: 75-87                                                                     San Diego: 75-87

PLAYOFFS:

WILDCARD:

Boston over Minnesota

NY Mets over Arizona

DIVISIONAL SERIES:

Houston over Boston

Cleveland over New York

Washington over LA Dodgers

Chicago Cubs over NY Mets

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:

Houston over Cleveland

Chicago Cubs over Washington

WORLD SERIES:

Houston over Chicago Cubs

Go Get Realmuto

We are 19 days from pitchers and catchers reporting. Guys like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and JD Martinez are still free agents – but the real news is baseball is less than one month away. It’s been a bizarre offseason. Everybody wants to find a way to get below the luxury tax prior to next offseason, so in turn, very few teams want to spend any money. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs are all below the luxury tax and are planning on keeping it that way. The only two teams currently projected to be over the luxury tax are the Nationals and the Red Sox.  

It’s widely known that next offseason projects to be one of the biggest offseason’s in Major League Baseball history. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Daniel Murphy and Clayton Kershaw, among many others, are all expected to hit the market. Money is going to be flying around. But, that leaves the big name free agents of this offseason wondering where all the money is. Chances are, a couple of the big market teams (the Cubs, Phillies – who have a projected payroll of just $84 million, Cardinals, etc.) or maybe even a couple small market teams (based on what we saw last night from the Brewers) will open up the checkbook and sign the big name free agents left on the market, possibly even at a bargain rate. If there are some bargains out there though, expect the Nationals to be involved.

The Nationals are already over the luxury tax and have almost no shot of getting under it. They will be taxed at a rate of 30% on any overage. Right now, their overage is about $4.6 million, meaning they would be taxed a little under $1.4 million. That’s certainly not chump change, but it’s not putting a dent in the Lerner’s pocket either. Between Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, Ryan Madson, and Shawn Kelley, the Nationals clear about $100 million of payroll next offseason. Even if you offer Bryce Harper a $40 million per year contract at the end of the season, you’ve still cleared about $60 million (realistically more like $15-20 million after you go through arbitration and sign other free agents to fill out the roster). Bottom line being - you’ll be under the luxury tax next year.

You’re in an offseason where the big spenders are standing pat for the most part. You are one offseason before your franchise cornerstone hits free agency. If there is one time where the Lerners go for the jugular, it should be now. As of today, the Nationals essentially have their 2017 playoff roster back intact, minus Jayson Werth, but with the addition of Adam Eaton. They’ve resigned Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick to team friendly deals. The only areas that could use a potential boost are catcher, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Could the Nationals coast into the playoffs with Matt Wieters starting 130+ games and a combination of AJ Cole, Edwin Jackson, and Erick Fedde starting 30+ games as the 5th starter? Of course they can. That doesn’t make it ideal, especially once the playoffs roll around.

  

After the Marlins continued their fire sale last night by dealing Christian Yelich to the Brewers, rumors started popping up that the Nationals are the front runners to acquire JT Realmuto. This is a deal that has to get done. It's that simple. Trading within your division can be difficult, but both teams are in completely different places right now and both have incentive to get a deal done. As we know, the Nationals are over the luxury tax as is, and with Realmuto projected to make about $3.2 million in arbitration this season, that would put the Nationals at about $7.8 million over the luxury tax. But what if we could actually reduce how far the Nationals are over the luxury tax with this trade? The Marlins are demanding top prospects in return for Realmuto (as they should). However, right now they want Victor Robles as a headliner, which just isn't going to happen. According to Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post, Mike Rizzo is also refusing to discuss Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, or Juan Soto in any trade (although it's odd to me why Anthony Rendon was even mentioned). Let's say that Rizzo agrees to trade Juan Soto as a headliner in a Realmuto deal. By including Soto, who is the Nationals 2nd best prospect, and a top 50 prospect in MLB, could Rizzo then attach Matt Wieters $10.5 million contract to this deal as a salary dump? Obviously, the Marlins wouldn't take Soto and Wieters for Realmuto, but something like Soto, Wieters, Erick Fedde, and either Raudy Read or Pedro Severino for Realmuto and Junichi Tazawa could work. This gives the Marlins 3 of the Nationals top 10 or so prospects, while the Nationals get a young, talented, controllable catcher and about $1.2 million in salary relief. For comparison, the Marlins just acquired the Brewers top prospect, 5th best, 9th best, and one unranked prospect for 5 years of control of Christian Yelich. Yelich comes with more control and is an overall better hitter than Realmuto, so it should come as no surprise that the Marlins would get less for Realmuto than they would for Yellich. I think the Marlins could be convinced to take Wieters, but only if Tazawa is in the deal, since Tazawa is owed $7 million this year. Tazawa would provide very little to the Nationals, but he is another right handed reliever that could compete for a bullpen spot at the very least. If the Marlins won't bite on taking Wieters back, then maybe Rizzo takes Soto off the table and offers Fedde, Daniel Johnson, and Read or Severino for Realmuto. In that scenario, the Marlins still would receive the Nationals 4th, 7th, and 10th best prospects. 

The Nationals could also just decide to go the free agency route, in which case Alex Avila would be a nice option. He could start 70-80 games, while Wieters starts the other 80-90.  Avila is also a left-handed hitter, and although Matt Wieters is a switch hitter, he hits about .30 points higher as a right-handed batter. Some sort of platoon could be very beneficial. As far as the fifth starter goes, you could look to bring in Jaime Garcia or John Lackey. Both Garcia and Lackey know Nationals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist very well from their time together in St. Louis and neither would be looking for a big commitment as far as years and dollars go. If you're looking for a final bullpen piece, then familiar faces in Matt Albers and Matt Belisle are available and would most likely only require a one year commitment on the cheaper side ($2-3 million). The options are out there, it's just a matter of what kind of money is left in the budget.

On the other hand, if the Nationals decide that they don't need to upgrade anywhere else heading into this season, locking up free agent to be, Mike Rizzo, might not be a bad end to the offseason either.

Why the Man Crush?

Give me a break. Go ahead and ask Thom Loverro, Bob Nightengale, and Jon Heyman among many others what they thought about the Nationals’ decision to not bring Dusty Baker back next season. Just go ahead and ask them, I dare you. You’ll leave the conversation thinking that the Nationals front office just stabbed Babe Ruth in the throat with a dirty pair of scissors. But no that’s not what happened, they just let Dusty Baker’s contract expire, that’s all. Did the Nationals handle Dusty’s departure correctly? No, not by any means. They let him hang around D.C. for seven days after the season ended, expecting that an extension would be reached, then let him go back to California only to inform him he had been let go. But that’s not Loverro, Nightengale, or Heyman’s gripe. Their gripe is that Dusty Baker does not have a job. I’m sick of it. If you didn’t watch the Nationals for at least 100+ games during the regular season and catch every single postseason game, then your opinion is completely irrelevant. That makes all but one of those guys (Loverro) irrelevant in this conversation. I’m fairly certain that Loverro has a huge man crush on Dusty Baker, so he is essentially irrelevant as well.

Dusty Baker does not have a job on October 27, 2017 because of his inability to manage in the playoffs. It is not because Dusty Baker is a bad manager. In fact, the Nationals will probably never find another manager who can navigate his way through a 162-game season the way Baker can. They will probably never find another manager who is capable of connecting with the players and the media at a level that Baker can. But Dusty Baker led the Nationals one game further than his predecessor, Matt Williams, who was a complete disaster and is completely incapable of managing a Major League Baseball team. Baker did not get this team to a National League Championship Series, he did not get this team to a World Series. In fact, I wrote a week ago about how inept Dusty is at managing in the playoffs. He manages playoff games the same way he would manage a regular season game on May 27th against the Padres. He, among other things, decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo multiple times with first base open and use Sammy Solis in extremely big parts of games. But Joe Torre and Major League Baseball dropped a bomb on us last night. Enjoy that right here. THAT is why Dusty Baker does not have a job.

But nobody wants to talk about Dusty’s mistakes. They want to talk about how great of a guy he is. Which is fine, but there are a lot of great guys in baseball that deserve managerial jobs. So now, we’re here watching as the Nationals get crucified for a managerial decision that is eerily similar to the Red Sox firing of John Ferrell or the Yankees dismissal of Joe Girardi. Oh wait, no it’s not, both of those guys won World Series championships for their respective clubs. But neither of them are as friendly or have the baseball pedigree of Dusty Baker, so it’s ok that they were let go. It’s asinine. For parts of the Nationals-Cubs series, the players failed Dusty Baker, but in Game 5, Dusty Baker failed the players. It’s ok that none of the big-time sports writers want to discuss that though.

The Nationals ownership group has a history of being noncommittal to managers. It’s who they are, it’s what they believe in. I wrote about it almost two years ago to the day (check it out if you want). It’s the reason that Dusty Baker was the Nationals manager in the first place after they offered a 1 year $1.6 million contract to Bud Black. I mean, did they really think Black was going to say “Ok, sounds like a fair deal”? So we’re back to where we were following the 2013 season, and back to where we were following the 2015 season. This time, the Lerners have a chance to make it right. It’s time to show baseball that you do value managers and that you’re willing to make a commitment to the position. Joseph Elliott Girardi was let go by the New York Yankees yesterday morning. He is the exact man that the Nationals need to lead them to the next level. Don’t get me wrong, if Girardi doesn’t want the job and wants to sit out a year or two to spend time with his family, then that’s his choice to make. I’m sure that Dave Martinez (believed to be the Nationals top candidate as of yesterday) will make a fine manager. But the Lerners and Mike Rizzo must circle Joe Girardi’s name and say this is our guy.  Fly him out to DC on a private plane, wine and dine him, and offer him the job. If he declines, you move on knowing that you made your pitch. A pitch which will have included a four-year contract offer. A pitch which will have included a $4-5 million per year salary. The Lerners agreed to pay Joe Blanton $4 million last season, I’m sure they can splurge and pay a guy like Girardi the same.

In 2015, the Nationals needed the anti-Matt Williams and Dusty Baker fit the role well, restoring peace to the Nationals clubhouse. The Nationals don't need an anti-Dusty Baker, which is good because Joe Girardi isn't an anti-Dusty Baker, but the two are still very different. Both are extremely hard-working men and love what they do. Both are extremely well prepared. Both know and understand the game. Both are well respected by their players. But, while Dusty Baker manages every game like it’s May 27th, former Yankee, Mark Teixeira, was quoted in the New York post as saying “He (Girardi) manages every game like its Game 7.” The Nationals need somebody like that. They need intensity. They need urgency. Will Bryce Harper be here in 2019? Odds are, no he won’t, so it’s time to put the pedal to the metal.

GO GET JOE GIRARDI.

Potentially Franchise Altering Offseason

I figured I would let a couple of days pass before circling back around. I’ve been relentless on managers since I started writing. At the time, who could blame me, Matt Williams was the man at the helm just making poor decision after poor decision. There is no doubt about it, we’ve come a long way since then. Dusty Baker has been an immeasurable upgrade over Matt Williams. The players respect him and he’s a winner, at least in the regular season he is. But is Dusty the man who can lead the Nationals to the NLCS or even possibly the World Series? It’s truly debatable. There are those who love Dusty, both inside the clubhouse and out and think he is the guy who can lead this team to the next level. Then there are those who think if this team wants to take the next step, he’s got to go. I lean more towards the latter, but regardless of that, I’m fairly certain Dusty will end up back in the dugout for another year or two.

There are a couple of issues that make this a complex situation. First and foremost, if this team wasn’t entering the biggest offseason of their 12-year existence, this would be a no brainer, Dusty Baker would be back probably under a two or three-year contract. With Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Madson, among others, set to leave after the 2018 season, the Nationals have one more shot to bring a World Series back to Washington.

Which brings us to the Cubs series last week, which if you watched, you would have seen that Dusty Baker made a couple of terrible moves in pivotal moments, especially in Games 3 and 5. We touched on Dusty’s mistakes in Game 3 last week. He opted not to walk Anthony Rizzo with first base open and a runner in scoring position. In this situation, it wasn’t that he necessarily had the wrong pitcher out there to face Rizzo (we’ll get to that in a second), it was that he didn’t want to walk Rizzo and instead face Willson Contreras. Rizzo had already burned Dusty in Game 1. Contreras at that point in the series was 1 for 6, not to mention, Contreras was 0 for 5 career against our entire bullpen. That’s a very small sample size, but I’ll still take my chances. Instead, Oliver Perez faces Rizzo, Rizzo bloops in a single, screams about how he wants to be respected, and the Cubs win a game that Max Scherzer had a no hitter going into the 7th inning. But wait, let’s backtrack a second. Remember I said Oliver Perez wasn’t necessarily the wrong choice to face Rizzo? Well, he wasn’t. Rizzo was 2 for 7 against Perez, so Perez has had some success, the problem was, Rizzo was 0 for 3 combined against Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle, who also happen to be the Nationals three best relievers. It would be one thing if this were the only time Dusty did this, but in the 7th inning of a 1-0 game, Dusty decided he needed to bring in a left hander to face Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber had hit a rocket off of Max Scherzer in his prior at bat, so I’m actually with Dusty on this one. With the game on the line, he had to go get Max. But, again, instead of going to one of his top three relievers, Dusty goes to Sammy Solis, who doesn’t belong in a tie game, or a game in which the Nationals are leading. Joe Maddon counters with the right-handed Albert Almora, and Almora comes up with the big hit to tie the game. Almora hit .342 against left handers in 2017. When you went to a lefty, did you really think Maddon would leave the left handed hitting Schwarber in there? You couldn’t have. Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson most likely get you out of that inning without any damage being done. Schwarber was 0 for 2 with a strikeout against Madson for those wondering, although he had never faced Kintzler. Dusty didn’t stop there though, in an 8-6 game on Thursday, his confusing loyalty to Sammy Solis reared its ugly head again. Solis was called on to pitch the 7th inning and after getting one out, he gave up a rocket single off the wall to Schwarber - what a coincidence since in Game 3 Dusty wanted Solis to face Schwarber but Maddon pulled Schwarber in favor of Albert Almora – followed by another hit by Jon Jay. It’s astounding that in huge spots, not once, but twice, Dusty used his seventh best bullpen option instead of going to one of his top three options.

Sure, the bats didn’t come alive until the 8^th inning of Games 2 and 4 and then throughout Game 5, but the Cubs had the same problem. In close games like the Nationals and Cubs played in all 5 games, managing and umpiring is under the microscope. Fortunately, the umpiring wasn’t terrible until Game 5. Unfortunately, in Game 5 both the umpiring and Dusty’s managing were questionable at best.

That leaves us here, trying to figure out what minor adjustments need to be made to make sure the outcome is different next year. As I said, the Dusty situation is tricky. Who can Mike Rizzo bring in that could do a better job? There aren’t a whole lot of options as far as experienced managers go. You could take a look at John Farrell, who was just fired by the Boston Red Sox. He’s won a World Series, but he’s also been bounced from the playoffs in the first round the past two years. Not to mention, there are rumors coming out of Boston that the clubhouse didn’t like him and lost respect for him. After the Matt Williams debacle, I can’t imagine Mike Rizzo hiring somebody who has had problems with a clubhouse. Then you have Ron Gardenhire, who was considered for the job two years ago before Dusty was hired. Gardenhire is fine, but he’s no better than Dusty. He may actually be slightly worse. He has less playoff success than Dusty, which I didn’t even realize was possible. My favorite candidate is Joe Girardi. But who’s to say Girardi leaves New York? They have a more promising future than New York, and if he wants the chance to manage Bryce Harper, he can just wait another year. If Girardi happens to step down at the end of the season, I don’t see him taking another job immediately, which is a bummer for Washington, because he’s the perfect guy for the job. The last experienced candidate that could be considered is Mike Redmond, who managed an absolute dog mess of a Marlins team to a 77-85 record in 2014. Redmond has no playoff experience though, so is he necessarily a better option than Dusty? Probably not. Short of Joe Girardi, there are no experienced managers out there who are an upgrade over Dusty. You could take a shot in the dark like the Dodgers did two years ago and go with Alex Cora or Dave Martinez. It turned into gold for the Dodgers, but who’s to say it would work for the Nats? Expect Dusty to be back. It’s nothing to be excited about, but it’s also not the worst thing.

Besides Dusty, the next biggest thing facing the Nationals this offseason is whether or not they able to resign anybody set to hit free agency next year? Bryce Harper already has one foot out the door, Gio Gonzalez is most likely gone as well. But can the Nationals extend Daniel Murphy for another year or two? Going into the final season of a 3 year $37.5 million deal, would Murph take a 2 year $30 million extension to stay with the Nats? It’s definitely something to explore. Notice I said Bryce Harper has one foot out the door. Expect Mike Rizzo to quietly shop Bryce at the Winter Meetings and throughout the offseason. Would the loser of the ALCS, either Houston or New York, make an offer that Mike Rizzo can’t refuse and go all in for one year? Could Rizzo turn down an Astros offer centered around their top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and Derek Fisher, who made his Major League debut this year? What if the Yankees offered Dellin Betances and top prospect Clint Frazier, who also made his Major League debut this year. I don’t know that either of those teams make an offer that strong, but if they do, I would expect to see Bryce Harper in another uniform next season. Unless the Lerners and Mike Rizzo get some sort of sign from Scott Boras that Bryce Harper is interested in staying in Washington past this season, you have to consider dealing him. If you’re Mike Rizzo, you’re at a crossroads. Bryce Harper surely can help you win a World Series, but you also don’t want to let him walk away and get nothing in return. This team is good enough to win the division without Bryce Harper, but is it good enough to win in the playoffs without him? Insert Victor Robles and it just might be.

Same Nats, Different Year

They’re about to do it again. They’re about to make it four straight divisional round exits. It seems like it’s about that time to just say “hey, this team isn’t built to win”. You can point to the 95, 96, 97, and 98 win seasons that say otherwise. But you can’t ignore the facts and the facts are that this team as constructed can win in the regular season, but can’t win in the playoffs.

Year in and year out, the bats are to blame. They have a bunch of .300 hitters during the regular season, and then when they playoffs roll around they become .100 hitters. Go ahead, let me hear it, “it’s a small sample size”, “it’s under a microscope”, “these guys hit .100 during stretches of the regular season too, but as a whole they are .300 hitters.” Quite frankly, I don’t care. I don’t care if you hit .235 during the regular season if you can hit .300 in the playoffs. This is where stars are made, and quite frankly, the Nationals don’t have any stars. The Nationals lineup, which I’m 100% certain will not change for Game 4 is hitting .000, .167, .100, .091, .250, .100, .000, and .250. That’s right, two players (Trea Turner and Matt Wieters) don’t even have a hit, while three others have one hit each. Absolutely pathetic. Some will point to the Cubs and say “well they aren’t hitting either”, but they are. They’re hitting when it matters. Kris Bryant is hitting. 273 and Anthony Rizzo is hitting .333 for the series driving in six of the Cubs eight runs this series. You can’t win a ballgame unless you hit and score some runs. Since 2012, the Washington Nationals are averaging 3.3 runs per game in 17 games (3.1 runs per game if you take into account that Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS went 18 innings and the Nationals scored 1 run). This includes last year’s series against the Dodgers where the bats did come alive somewhat and we scored 4.8 runs per game. Take that series out and the number goes down to 2.66 runs per game in 12 games. The Nationals aren’t the only ones facing playoff pitching at this point in the year, but they are sure as hell the only ones who are scared of hitting playoff pitching at this point in the year.

Not scoring is the number one reason the Washington Nationals will not advance past the Divisional Round for the fourth straight try. Dusty Baker is the other reason why they will not advance. I’m going to hear it for this one too, “managers are just a scapegoat, the players need to perform.” Hey, guess what, like I said above, I DON’T CARE. If this team were losing 8-0, it wouldn’t be Dusty’s fault and Dusty would be a scapegoat. But in tie games and games decided by one run, the manager’s decisions are pivotal to the outcome of a game. A good manager goes unnoticed, a lot like a good umpire. The Nationals have never had what I would consider a good manager. Dusty Baker will never be able to explain to me or to any Nationals fan for that matter why not once, not twice, but three times he decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo with the game on the line. Rizzo burned him all three times. It’s inexcusable. Dusty’s reasoning was that Willson Contreras, who was on deck, could also burn the Nationals. Sure, Dusty. I guess technically that’s true. Just like Joe Maddon could have sent Kyle Hendricks up as a pinch hitter for Willson Contreras and he could have driven a run in! It could technically happen! But if you look at Willson’s career numbers against the Nationals bullpen, he is 0 for 5 with a strikeout, collectively, against Matt Albers, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Enny Romero, and Sammy Solis. Literally take your choice of any of those guys, and you give yourself a better shot at winning than if you face Anthony Rizzo. Instead, Dusty continues to manage like it’s 1985 and go to his lefty lefty matchup instead of looking at the statistics and the splits. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker never has and never will win a World Series.