Sunday, April 26, 2015

7-12...and Last Place

It's the end of April, I get that. For those who say April baseball doesn't matter though, you're wrong. Every game counts. The Nationals game on September 12th against Miami means no more than tomorrow's game against Atlanta. A win is a win, they all count the same in the standings whether it's April or September. That's why a 7-12 record through 19 games is a bit alarming. However, I'm not saying the Nationals are in trouble by any means. That's where the fact that it's only April does matter. There are still 143 games left in the season. If this were September 12th and the Nats were 7 1/2 games back of the Mets, then we're in some trouble. The fact of the matter is, the Nationals are 7 1/2 games back of a hot Mets team who has won 12 of 13 and is 14-4 to start the season. The Nationals have struggled through their first 19 games, partially due to injuries, but mostly due to bullpen mismanagement, lack of focus/concentration (poor defense), and not being able to get a timely hit. It's not panic time. It won't be panic time until late June or early July if the Nationals are still hovering around .500. Remember the Brewers last year? They were 21-9 through their first 30 games with a 6 game lead over the Cardinals in early May. They finished in 3rd place at 82-80 and 8 games behind the Cardinals. It's a long season and we only have a small sample size right now. With that being said, there are some things that need to get worked out very soon.

Hitting:

I'm going to specifically use Thursday's game against the Cardinals as a prime example of what us Nats fans have become accustomed to. What is even more frustrating is the fact that this scenario happened twice. In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the fourth, the Nats had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. After a great at bat by Clint Robinson where he fought off some pitches a drew a walk, Yunel Escobar comes up and first pitch swinging, grounds into a double play. The next batter, Jose Lobaton, strikes out. Inning over, no runs. Don't worry, that wasn't all. In the bottom of the 8th after a fielding debacle that gave the Cardinals a 4-1 lead, the Nats came up to bat and got their first two runners on. Let's just think about this for a second, you're the Nationals, you're losing 4-1. The pitcher just walked Bryce Harper on 5 pitches. You have 1st and 2nd, no outs and you want to keep the line moving because you need base runners if you want to get back into this game. Naturally, Ryan Zimmerman comes up first pitch swinging at a ball that was out of the zone and grounds into another double play. Next batter, Clint Robinson, lines out to center field. He hit the ball well and with one out, it may have scored the runner, but the double play ended any chance of scoring that inning.

Let me take you back two innings to the top of the 6th. In a 1-1 game, the Cardinals get a two out single from Jason Heyward, then Matt Holiday gets hit by a pitch. First and second with two outs. Two outs, not zero, but TWO! Matt Adams comes up and singles Heyward in. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball at manufacturing runs. That's why they are consistently in the playoffs and consistently in the World Series conversation. The Nationals don't do that. Most hitters in the Nationals lineup see two on and nobody out and say "Wow, we could really use a three run homer here." Well sure we could, everybody could, but that's not logical. How about you concentrate on making contact, preferably into the outfield so runners can at least tag, maybe even fight a pitch off for a bloop single? Time and time again, the Nationals get guys in scoring position with less than 2 outs and don't score. The Giants and Cardinals don't do that, they find ways to get the runners in and that's how each year they win playoff series.

Bullpen (Mis)Management:

For those of you that I talk to on a daily basis about the Nationals, you would think I don't like Matt Williams at all. That's not entirely true. I do think he knows what he's doing and he preaches the right things to this team and he handles the players the right way. The one area where I think he has no clue what he's doing, is managing a bullpen.

Most managers now a days have an "A" bullpen and a "B" bullpen as former Nationals manager Davey Johnson once put it. The "A" bullpen are your 3-4 best relievers, they're your 7th inning guy, lefty specialist, set-up man, and closer. Your "B" bullpen are the remaining 3-4 guys in the bullpen, it may be your long reliever, it may be a another lefty specialist, it may be a kid you just called up from the minors that you need to eat some innings. The Nationals actually have a very easy bullpen to manage. There are 3 members of the bullpen who have been in the Major Leagues for two seasons. Those 3 happen to be 3 of the Nationals 4 best relievers and they are Matt Thornton, Drew Storen, and Tanner Roark. The fourth is Aaron Barrett, who is just now in his second year. That leaves Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, and Rafael Martin. Your "A" bullpen is Thornton, Storen, Barrett, and Roark (Roark is a tough one though because he's also your long reliever so he can be a "B" bullpen guy as well). There is absolutely no reason that if you're winning (especially by less than 4), tied, or losing by 1 that any of the "B" bullpen guys see the mound. Unless you're in the 12th inning and you're out of pitchers, there's just no reason for it.

In a tie game on Wednesday night against the Cardinals, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen. It cost the Nationals the game. Blake Treinen gave up the eventual winning run in the 8th inning. On Friday, April 10th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen in a 1-0 game. Xavier Cedeno (who has since been traded to the Dodgers) gave up the lead, the Nationals lost 4-1. The following night, Saturday, April 11th, Matt Williams went with his "B" bullpen again with a 2-0 lead. Blake Treinen gave up two runs, the Nationals lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Tuesday April 14th, Matt Williams has a 7-5 lead in Boston, he goes with his "B" bullpen, let's Blake Treinen throw exactly 10 warm up pitches, Treinen gives up the lead and the Nats lose 8-7.

Those are 4 examples of games that the Nationals lost after entering the 7th inning or later with a lead. The Nationals are 7-12, so lets say instead of going 0-4 in those games, Matt Williams uses his head in two of them, goes with his "A" bullpen and the Nats go 2-2. Instead of 7-12, the Nationals are now 9-10. If he used his head in all 4 of those games and went with his "A" bullpen, the Nats could be 11-8. Those losses aren't completely on Williams, there was bad defense, we should have scored more runs in some of them, etc., but with better bullpen management, I guarantee we would have won at least one of those games, most likely two or three of them.

I'm going to lay this out so that nobody can screw it up, here is the formula:
-If you are winning by less than 4, tied, or losing by 1 in the 7th inning, you use Matt Thornton or Tanner Roark in the 7th (depending on matchups), Aaron Barrett in the 8th, and Drew Storen in the 9th.
-If you are winning by 4 runs or more, or you are losing by more than 1 run, I don't care what you do, as long as you don't use any of the 4 relievers named above. It's that simple.

Hilarious Defense:

Even with good pitching though, you need a competent defense behind you. The Nationals don't have that. There were two plays this week that I don't even know if a high school team would make. On Thursday, Mark Reynolds rocked a ball to right center field. On the throw in, Danny Espinosa sailed a ball over Jose Lobaton's head, so in return Aaron Barrett chucked it into center field. He was trying to throw Reynolds out at second, but Reynolds was already on his way to third, so I don't know if his judgment is questionable or if his eyesight needs to be checked. That was just one of two plays that made me cringe. Today, the Nationals were able to pull off a play that made me consider throwing my TV off the balcony. With two outs in the 5th inning of a 1-0 game, the Marlins loaded the bases on an Ichiro Suzuki single. Giancarlo Stanton pulled some questionable base running moves by rounding 3rd too far and running home. The Nats were going to get out of the inning due to a Marlins mistake. Wilson Ramos had other plans though, he decided he was going to challenge Stanton to a foot race back to third instead of throw the ball to Yunel Esobar who was waiting at third to tag Stanton out. Ramos gave the Marlins a second chance and like good teams do, they got a big hit, cleared the bases, and took a 3-1 lead.

Now let's try and win a few series in a row considering the only series the Nats have won all year is against the 7-12 Phillies. The Nats blew it this weekend and got swept by the Marlins, so they have the Braves and Mets on the road before heading back home for another home stand. I'd love to see the Nats go 5-2 or 6-1 in these next 7 games before heading home. Based on the hilariously awful baseball they've been playing though, I'll take 4-3. Actually, they're on a 5 game losing streak, so how about this: just win ONE game. One game where they play fundamentally sound baseball, get timely hits, use the bullpen how it should be used, and get a win. That's all I ask at this point.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Picking Up Right Where They Left Off

Well, this isn't exactly how any of us saw the first two series of the season playing out. The first five games have been full of costly errors, lousy hitting, average relief pitching, excellent starting pitching, and a few questionable decisions. The hitting has been by far the biggest issue through the first give game into the season. At points its almost been unwatchable. It's like I'm re-watching the Nationals play the Giants in the playoffs last year. Bottom line, you can't win baseball games 1-0 or 2-1 every night, and that's what the Nationals are trying to do right now.

I understand that the lineup is missing its 1 through 3 hitters, but the guys who are in the lineup because of injuries are still expected to be Major League hitters. None of us have seen that so far. Michael Taylor has been the best of the bunch and he's a rookie so he is the player I expected the least production out of. Don't get me wrong, we've seen Taylor struggle, (he's struck out 7 times in just 21 at bats) but he's also shown flashes of how good he can be. Second base has been a black hole where Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa have combined to go 3 for 18 to start the season. One of those hits came from Espinosa who was curiously hitting left handed last night, which is odd because everybody was under the assumption that he was strictly hitting right handed now. Regardless, 3 for 18 isn't going to cut it and neither is the 2 for 16 that we've seen out of the left fielders. The major culprit there is Tyler Moore, who I'm rooting for, but 0 for 10 is abysmal.

At a time where we needed our star players to show up, they've gone missing, just like last October. Ryan Zimmerman, although he's played a good first base so far, is 2 for 19 from the clean up spot. Just as bad, Ian Desmond is 3 for 18. The difference between the two is Zimmerman is playing solid defense, Desmond is making costly error after costly error. If it weren't for bad defense, the Nationals would most likely have at least one, maybe two more wins under their belt. The poor starting rotation through their first time through the rotation has a 1.99 ERA. They're 1-3 on the year.

Quick side rant regarding the game on Friday against the Phillies: In a 1-0 game in the bottom of the 7th inning, Gio was still pitching. I'm fine with that, but Gio proceeded to walk two and then hit a batter, so he left with the bases loaded and one out. First of all, we all know that Gio has some control issues. He pitched a gem, but when you send him back out there for the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, you need one or two of your best relievers warming up in the pen to come in if Gio runs into trouble. Aaron Barrett and Matt Thornton should have been warming up. Instead, Matt Williams let Gio pitch into trouble and he's left in one batter too late (possibly two depending on how short of a string you want to have). As soon as Gio walked that second batter though, he was done. He never should have even been in the game to hit Andres Blanco and load the bases. Second problem, it's still a 1-0 game. We hadn't given up the lead yet and double play gets you out of the inning with a 1-0 lead. So who comes in? Xavier Cedeno. What? If you needed a lefty in that situation don't you think Thornton is your guy? He's your best left handed reliever. You also could have gone with Barrett who is a ground ball and strike out pitcher. Instead, Cedeno comes in, promptly gives up a two run single and then hits Ben Revere. What an outing. Another wasted quality start and Gio is charged with 3 runs that probably should have never happened.

Dan Kolko pointed out last night that scoring throughout the league has been down through the first five games of the year, down almost a full run from last year. That's great and all, but on average teams were still scoring nearly 4 runs per game this year. The Nationals have scored 9 runs TOTAL, which is lowest in the Major Leagues and they're hitting .183 as a team, again, lowest in the Majors. Those stat lines are eerily similar to those of last October when the Nats hit .164 and scored 9 runs in 4 games. It's a very small sample size, so we can't get too worked up about it, but at the same time, the Nationals schedule was very favorable early in the season. The Nationals have proceeded to drop the first two series because they can't score and now are staring at a sweep to the projected last place and possibly worst team in baseball, the Phillies.

Going into Boston at 1-5 or 2-4 isn't how we wanted this to start, but its the position we're in now. Nothing you can do about it. We have to start hitting though or this could get really ugly. As I said when we signed Scherzer, it doesn't matter how great your starting pitching is unless you can score some runs. Our starting pitching has been as good as advertised, but I don't care if we have 5 guys that are as good as Clayton Kershaw in our rotation, we aren't going to win games 1-0 every day. Werth is expected back sometime this week, which will be a huge boost. The schedule gets tougher though with 6 of the next 10 against the Red Sox and then the Cardinals. Now is as good a time as any to start hitting and working counts. Let's get a win today and then worry about trying to win a series in Boston.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Disabled List and Final Roster

We're five days away from Opening Day now and we already know that we will be without two of our starting three outfielders and our starting third baseman to open the season. Not to mention that Nate McLouth is still banged up and Casey Janssen may head to the disabled list as well. Not exactly how we wanted to start the year, but injuries happen and there's nothing you can do about it. I'd much rather be without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Jayson Werth in April than be without them in October for the playoffs. Knowing that the Nationals will be without Span, Werth, and Rendon to open the season, here is how the final roster may play out.

Players to the Disabled List:
Really? It's not even April and we're talking about the DL? Well, Span is destined for the DL being that he will probably be out until late April or early May. As of today Rendon was officially placed on the DL with Jayson Werth likely to follow. With those two though, we have no idea how much time they may miss. Werth is playing in Minor League games which is a good sign, he just won't be quite ready by April 6th. Barring any setbacks, Werth should be a safe bet to return anytime between April 10th and April 13th, which means he would only miss 3 to 6 games or so. Rendon on the other hand is a complete toss up. He could be out for another week or he could be out for another month and a half. He's gotten three separate opinions on his sprained MCL and none of the three have said he requires surgery. That's the good news. The bad news is, what initially was supposed to be Rendon sitting out a few games, has turned into Rendon missing potentially all of April. As I said before though, I'd rather be without him in April and have him get completely healthy than have him rush back, get re-injured, and be out until July. The last two players who may end up on the DL are Nate McLouth and Casey Janssen. Neither one is a huge loss and neither one is irreplaceable. Janssen would likely see his bullpen spot occupied by Blake Treinen until he gets back, while McLouth's spot could go to a few players that are still in camp.

Replacements:
The Nationals have a bunch of players in Major League camp that are ready to fill in for these three while they are on the DL. We know that we are going to get a sneak peak at 2016 with Michael Taylor filling in for Denard Span for the first month or so of the year. Tyler Moore looks like a good bet to make the team based on the Spring he's had. I also don't think the Nationals are ready to let him go and he's out of options, so unless they're ready to trade him, they have to find a roster spot for him. The roster spot that would belong to Anthony Rendon is up in the air a bit. The Nationals could go with either Mike Carp, Dan Uggla, or Ian Stewart. Carp has had the worst spring of the bunch, but he has a World Series ring and has playoff experience that none of the others have. Don't underestimate that because I think Rizzo puts a lot of value in that. Stewart and Uggla have been impressive though after both having years where their careers looked like they were just about over. Uggla has 11 hits in 39 at bats with 2 home runs while Stewart has 12 hits in 46 at bats with 3 home runs. Both have high career strike out rates, but have really cut down on the strikeouts this spring. It's just Spring Training though, so we have to take that with a grain of salt. With all the open spots on the Nats roster right now, I'm betting Uggla, Stewart, and Carp all make the Opening Day roster. Once the Nats get healthy, that's when they will have to make some decisions as to who to keep for the year. If Werth does end up on the DL, then there will be one final spot up for grabs. Matt den Dekker and Reed Johnson appear to be the leading candidates for Werth's roster spot if he hits the DL. Matt den Dekker was acquired for Jerry Blevins on Monday and Reed Johnson was also signed on Monday. Johnson signed a Minor League deal and den Dekker has Minor League options remaining, so both are likely to be headed there by mid-April. If I had to pick one to make the roster, I would say its den Dekker being that he plays solid defense at all three outfield spots and is a left handed hitter.

Quick Thought on Kevin Frandsen:
I know Frandsen didn't exactly light it up during Spring Training this year. He was out played by both Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart. My problem with releasing Frandsen is that the Nats just let go of one of their most versatile players from 2014. He played first, second, and third base as well as left field last year for the Nationals. There's nobody left on the roster now who can play all of those positions. He's also a contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Is that something you get from Danny Espinosa? No. How about Ian Stewart? Nope. Maybe Dan Uggla? Very funny. So who do you call on in the 7th, 8th, or 9th when you just need a single in order to get a guy on base? I can't see anybody on the bench right now that I would trust in that situation. I've said time and time again that Rizzo has earned my trust and the trust of every Nationals fan, but that doesn't mean that I like the move. I actually hate it.

Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1.) Michael Taylor, CF
2.) Yunel Escobar, 3B
3.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
4.) Bryce Harper, RF
5.) Ian Desmond, SS
6.) Dan Uggla, 2B
7.) Wilson Ramos, C
8.) Tyler Moore, LF
9.) Max Scherzer, P

Bench:
1.) Danny Espinosa
2.) Jose Lobaton
3.) Mike Carp
4.) Ian Stewart
5.) Matt den Dekker

Bullpen:
1.) Drew Storen
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) Blake Treinen
4.) Craig Stammen
5.) Aaron Barrett
6.) Xavier Cedeno
7.) Tanner Roark