In my previous post, I said to expect the Nationals to announce some more big news in the next 7 to 10 days. Here we are about a week later and the Nationals have signed reliever Casey Janssen. Alright, not exactly the big announcement I was expecting/talking about. It's actually better. There was a glaring hole in the bullpen after Tyler Clippard was traded to Oakland and that hole will now be filled by Janssen, who has saved 81 games over the past 3 seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Mike Rizzo turned the savings from Tyler Clippard's salary of around $8-8.5 million this year into two players who combined will make $8.5 million (Escobar is due $5 million and Janssen's newly signed deal will pay him $3.5 million this season, with a $7 million option for next season or a $1.5 million buyout). So when all is said and done, you picked up your starting second baseman and a replacement set-up man for no extra money added to the team's payroll. Great job by Rizzo.
Casey Janssen had sort of a Rafael Soriano type season last year, which probably isn't too comforting to Nationals fans. His first half ERA was 1.23, while in the second half he posted a 6.46 ERA. Janssen however lost a good amount of weight during the season last year due to food poisoning, so that may have had something to do with those second half stats. His average WHIP from 2011-2013 was .982, which is outstanding and the kind of numbers you like to see from a late inning reliever like Janssen (for comparison, Drew Storen who had arguably the best season of his career had a .976 WHIP last year). Janssen hasn't had any arm issues and at 33 years old, which is two years younger than Soriano, the Nationals should be able to count on him getting back to his old form.
With the addition of Janssen, the Nationals bullpen is pretty close to set. With Drew Storen, Craig Stammen, Casey Janssen, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett, and Tanner Roark all guaranteed spots in the bullpen, there appears to be no more room for Blake Treinen, Matt Grace, or Xavier Cedeno. I personally would have loved to see the Nationals make some room for Blake Treinen in the bullpen. Treinen can hit 98-99 MPH on the radar gun, but consistently sits around 96 MPH. Add in a slider and changeup (which he can throw, but not with as much consistency as his sinking fastball) and you've got a closer in the making in my opinion. He's a guy that could have been your shut down set-up man this year, but the Nationals for now still view him as a starting pitcher. With as much depth that the organization has with starting pitching, I think it may be wise to convert Treinen over to a closer sooner rather than later considering Drew Storen can leave via free agency after the 2016 season.
The roster is starting to take shape and the closer we get to Spring Training, the more likely it looks like the Nationals are all in the season with a dominant rotation of Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Fister, and Gonzalez. Davey Johnson said it was World Series or bust two seasons ago. Two years later, Ted Lerner has used his wallet and not his words to tell the baseball world that now it actually is World Series or bust.
Also - 21 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's coming quick!
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Monday, January 19, 2015
Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister......and Roark?
Let me start off by saying I trust anything that Mike Rizzo does. He's done enough for this organization over the past 7-8 years to earn the trust of all of the fans. With that being said, a mere two months ago, Tom Boswell wrote an article in The Washington Post quoting Rizzo's dad as telling Rizzo "don't fall in love with your own players." That's exactly what happened here. Max Scherzer was in fact drafted by Rizzo while he was with the Diamondbacks in 2006. Sure, Rizzo was here when the Nats drafted Jordan Zimmermann in the second round of the 2007 draft, but he was the assistant GM at that point, so we don't know how much say he had in this draft pick. In 2006 in Arizona, Rizzo was the Director of Scouting. Scherzer was his guy, there's no doubt about it.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Your 2015 Second Baseman - Yunel Escobar
Mike Rizzo finally made his move tonight to sure up second base for the 2015 season and possibly further. Tonight, the Washington Nationals traded set up man Tyler Clippard to the Oakland Athletics for shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar wasn't even able to set his bags down in Oakland before he was traded again. If you recall, Escobar was traded to Oakland with Ben Zobrist just last Saturday (yes, that was the same trade that included Boog Powell).
Do I like this move? Yes. Do I love this move? No. Clippard was an incredibly valuable piece of the Nats bullpen, especially last year when his ERA stood at 2.18. He was an awesome 8th inning guy and it's going to be very difficult to replace his productivity. With that being said, Clippard is projected to earn between $9-10 million this year in his final year of arbitration. That's a lot of money to pay a set up man. The part that is a bit confusing to me is that the Nationals could have resigned Asdrubal Cabrera for around the same amount of money that they are going to pay Escobar and still kept Clippard this season. Rizzo is a smart guy though and Escobar may not have been his number one option going into the offseason, but I think he had him ranked ahead of Cabrera for sure. Escobar and Cabrera have both been in the league for 8 years. Over those 8 years, Cabrera has been worth 20.7 WAR, while Escobar has been worth 23 WAR. Not a huge difference, but the bottom line is, it is a difference. Escobar is set to earn $5 million this season, $7 million next season, and he has a $7 million club option or a $1 million buyout. Rizzo traded one year of control of Clippard for potentially three years of control of Escobar at a reasonable price.
Having Escobar under team control for up to three years is big being that Ian Desmond is a free agent after this upcoming season. Trea Turner, who the Nationals just acquired from the Padres, just finished his first season of pro baseball. Chances are he won't be ready for the Majors for another two years. That means if Desmond leaves after this season, Escobar can slide over to shortstop for a year until Turner is ready. That in and of itself made it easier for Rizzo to deal Clippard here.
Escobar should be a nice addition to the Nationals lineup. He can hit for a little bit of power, he gets on base, and the best part is, he doesn't strike out that much. Over the course of his career, he's struck out 498 times over 3,913 at bats. That's just 12.7% in case you were wondering. Just for fun, lets take a look at what the Nationals lineup may look like on April 6th when they take the field against the Mets:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B
3. Jayson Werth, LF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
5. Bryce Harper, RF
6. Ian Desmond, SS
7. Wilson Ramos, C
8. Yunel Escobar, 2B
9. Pitcher
Obviously, if Werth is to miss the beginning of the season, the lineup would change a good amount. If he doesn't though, that's a pretty nice lineup I'd say. Don't be surprised if Bryce moves up or down a spot in that lineup. Yup, I said it, it's finally time to give Bryce a chance at hitting cleanup.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
What Jayson Werth's Surgery Means for the Nats & Ben Zobrist Traded
We found out on Thursday that Jayson Werth needed surgery on his right shoulder and is expected to take two to three months to recover. This really shouldn't be a big deal because it's January which means according to the timetable we were given, Werth should be ready to play by March at the latest. Werth is now 35 years old though, so it's entirely possible that his recovery takes longer than three months. If Werth's recovery ends up taking longer than expected, the Nationals have a few options to fill in for Werth.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
One option is to go with a combination of players currently on the roster to fill in for Werth. This seems like the most logical and realistic option. Nate McLouth would end up benefiting most from this scenario. McLouth season ended at the beginning of August last year when he too required surgery on his shoulder. He had a rocky first season with the Nats, but some of that can probably be attributed to his injured shoulder. He is set to earn $5 million this season as the fourth outfielder, so this is exactly why he was brought on board last season. If Matt Williams wants to play match-ups, he could use McLouth against right handed pitchers and a combination of Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore against left handed pitchers. Frandsen over his career has his .291 against left handed pitchers, so this may be the Nationals best option. Giving Tyler Moore a few starts would be beneficial as well as we've seen before, Moore plays better off the bench if he is given the occasional spot start. Moore is out of minor league options, so barring a trade, I see Moore winning the final bench spot. Moore also provides the team with some insurance in the case that Ryan Zimmerman gets injured or needs a day or two off.
The second option is to bring someone up from the minors to fill in. That someone would be Michael Taylor. Taylor will most likely be the Nationals starting center fielder going into the 2016 season after Denard Span departs. I don't know that Taylor is ready for a starting role going into this season though. In 17 games last year, Taylor hit .205 with 17 strikeouts. He probably needs another year of seasoning in the minor leagues so that he can work on cutting down on strikeouts. However, if he's on fire in Spring Training and McLouth struggles, he may force the Nationals hand.
The last option would be to go out and sign somebody. There aren't a ton of options available and this option makes the least sense anyways. As I said, McLouth is already signed for $5 million and there are 3 or 4 other players already on the roster who could fill in for a month or two if Werth misses time. There's no point in spending money on a fifth outfielder when that money could be used on a contract extension, on the bullpen, or on second base.
Speaking of second base, Ben Zobrist was traded today to the Oakland Athletics. One thing Billy Beane can always do is keep you on your toes. He traded Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and Derek Norris among others to make everyone think the Athletics are rebuilding on the fly. Billy quickly let everybody know that's not the case though by trading for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar who will play second and short for the A's respectively. The A's gave up their top prospect in the trade in Daniel Robertson, their versatile catcher/DH/outfielder in John Jaso, and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Part of the reason I wanted to list the players that the Athletics gave up is because I wanted to include a guy named Boog Powell in my post. The other reason is because Robertson was the A's top prospect and Powell was the A's 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com. Part of that has to do with the fact that the A's got not only Zobrist but Escobar too. Zobrist was the real prize though and he's the reason the A's had to give up so much. Seeing that the asking price for Zobrist ended up being so high, I can understand why Rizzo didn't end up giving up the farm to get Zobrist, who is essentially a rental player. The Rays probably would have required A.J. Cole and another mid-level prospect, and it just isn't worth giving up all that for one year of Zobrist.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla/Ian Stewart will form a platoon at second base going into the season. The trade market is extremely limited and for the most part, the big names that were available have already been dealt this offseason. Rizzo usually has a few tricks up his sleeve at this point in the offseason, but his options are starting to dwindle. It's entirely possible that he pulls off a surprising trade to acquire a second baseman for next season, but its even more likely that he goes in with Espinosa, Uggla, and possibly a few others battling it out for the starting job in Spring Training.
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