We're just days away from Opening Day and it feels so good. After a long winter, it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride. The 2018 Washington Nationals are largely the same team as the 2017 Washington Nationals. That should be good enough for a fifth National League East title in seven years, and the third straight. Should is the key word. The New York Mets could challenge the Nationals if their pitching staff can stay healthy and the Philadelphia Phillies could be a surprise contender, a lot like the 2012 Nationals were. It's going to be a tougher division than it was in 2017 (which isn't saying much), but the Nationals remain the clear favorite.
The Nationals will be without Jayson Werth for the first time since 2011. Werth was a key member in helping turn this franchise around and establishing the winning culture that exists today. Aside from Werth, the Nationals let Matt Albers, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Jose Lobaton, Oliver Perez, Joe Blanton, and of course, Dusty Baker walk in free agency. All were replaceable, though you'd expect Albers departure to hurt the most. Dave Martinez is now the manager tasked with getting this team through to the NLCS, if not further. Interestingly enough, Martinez was a front runner for the Nationals job back in 2014, when the Nationals decided to go with Matt Williams instead. What a fantastic decision that was!
There aren't many glaring weaknesses with this team, but there are definitely big concerns. There are bigger concerns with the Nationals than there are with any of the other five "Super Teams" as many analysts are calling them (the other Super Teams being the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Astros). The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are at catcher and the 5th starter. These are both positions where the Nationals may hypothetically have to improve upon during the season. The hope of course, is that between A.J. Cole and Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals won't have to worry about the 5th starter. That's entirely possible considering the Nationals won 97 games last year with their 5th starters combining to have an ERA north of 5.00. So if the Nationals can have either A.J. Cole or Jeremy Hellickson throw 170-180 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 4's, they're going to be fine. As far as behind the plate, the Nationals are heading into the season with Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero. From everything we've heard, Matt Wieters is in the best shape of his career and is really benefiting from working with new Nationals hitting coach, Kevin Long. Should we expect Wieters to have a career year? Probably not. But he should surely improve upon the .225/.288/.344 slash line he put up last season, all which were career worsts. Montero, the 11 year left-handed hitting veteran will back Wieters up. Montero's bat isn't what it used to be, but he still calls a good game behind the plate and has some pop in his bat. He hit .216 last season between the Cubs and Blue Jays, which isn't great, but considering Jose Lobaton hit .170 last year and has an even bigger noodle arm than Montero, I'll take it.
As essentially anybody with a brain who covers baseball has noted, this is a pivotal season for the Nationals franchise. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, Matt Wieters, Shawn Kelley and most of all, Mike Rizzo will all be free agents after this season. If there was ever a time to go for it all, it's now (and no, that doesn't mean Victor Robles becomes tradable, but just about everybody else does). In terms of the financial impact heading into next offseason, the Nationals have nearly $79 million in payroll coming off the books next year, $72 million of that will come off their “luxury tax payroll”, which they are currently about $7.1 million over, meaning they will pay about $2.13 million in overages. The tax threshold goes up $9 million next year, so the Nationals will really have about $81 million to work with next offseason to stay under the cap, which they will absolutely be aiming to do. The point in saying that is that the Nationals will be able to comfortably get under the luxury tax next year, while also keeping their payroll around the same (if that's the goal). If there is a player out there right now that can help this team win this year, go get them. The financial impact is irrelevant. The team is already over the luxury tax and is going to have to pay 30% on the overages. Adding a stud starting pitcher or another dominant bullpen arm mid-season surely isn't going to push the Lerner's into bankruptcy. Mike Rizzo and the Lerner's only job this season is to make sure this team has the best chance to win come October, Davey Martinez and the players will take care of the rest.
Bonus Predictions:
AL EAST NL EAST
New York: 95-67 Washington: 94-68
Boston: 92-70 New York: 87-75
Baltimore: 85-77 Philadelphia: 83-79
Toronto: 80-82 Atlanta: 75-87
Tampa Bay: 73-89 Miami: 60-102
AL CENTRAL NL CENTRAL
Cleveland: 96-66 Chicago: 96-66
Minnesota: 87-75 Milwaukee: 86-76
Chicago: 74-88 St. Louis: 85-77
Kansas City: 72-90 Cincinnati: 74-88
Detroit: 64-98 Pittsburgh: 63-99
AL WEST NL WEST
Houston: 99-63 Los Angeles: 94-68
Los Angeles: 86-76 Arizona: 90-72
Seattle: 83-79 Colorado: 86-76
Texas: 76-86 San Francisco: 77-85
Oakland: 75-87 San Diego: 75-87
PLAYOFFS:
WILDCARD:
Boston over Minnesota
NY Mets over Arizona
DIVISIONAL SERIES:
Houston over Boston
Cleveland over New York
Washington over LA Dodgers
Chicago Cubs over NY Mets
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:
Houston over Cleveland
Chicago Cubs over Washington
WORLD SERIES:
Houston over Chicago Cubs
