I had an end of the year blog all typed up and ready to post about a month ago. Then I said to myself "why am I even going to post this", the title of the blog said it all. It read "Same Stuff Different Year" and if you're a Nationals fan, you didn't even have to read the article to know what I meant by that. It was an even year, the Nationals won the division, and then flopped in the playoffs. Just as they did in 2012 (although the thought of Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS still scars Nationals fans to this day), and in 2014 as well.
The difference between this team and Matt Williams' 2014 Nationals was this team was dealing with significant injuries and this team fought hard. When you lose your number two starter, who would be an ace on many teams, and your starting catcher, who hit .307 and 22 homers for you, your chances of winning a championship take a real hit. When you lose them both in September, not only do your chances take a real hit, but your team morale takes a real hit as well. The Nationals fought though, they took the series to five games. Most of all, when they went down 4-1 in the 7th inning of Game 5, they fought back. The Nationals of 2014 were gutless. They would have rolled over and lost 4-1. Sure, a loss is a loss, but when guys are making contact and fighting, it's a lot easier to watch than when guys are striking out and wondering when their tee time is the following day.
Enough about this past season though. It's time to look ahead to 2017 and what this team needs to do to not only win the division again next year, but to advance in the playoffs. There are no glaring holes in this team per se, but there are areas that need to be addressed. The Nationals need a closer, they need a center fielder or a shortstop, and they need a catcher. As always, there are dream scenarios and there are realistic scenarios. My dream scenario is that the Nationals re-sign Mark Melancon who becomes the setup man, sign Kenley Jansen who becomes the closer, sign Dexter Fowler to play center field (which means Trea Turner becomes the shortstop), and then re-sign Wilson Ramos. We know Ramos will be out to begin the season, but he's the best available catcher this offseason and if the Nationals can get him on a two or three year deal, I think they should do it and just start the season with Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino behind the plate. The problem with this plan is it would require the Nationals to dish out around $200 million in contracts this offseason. With the MASN dispute still being an issue, that's just not going to happen.
A realistic idea of what may happen, though, does include a few players from my dream scenario. I think the Nationals have to end up with either Mark Melancon or Kenley Jansen. I don't see them signing both, and being that Melancon will be the cheaper of the two, I'm going to say they end up resigning him for somewhere in the neighborhood of four years $50 million. Statistically, Melancon is right on par with Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, so to be able to get him for about half the cost of the other two would be a great deal for the Nationals. Center field and catcher are going to be a bit trickier.
The Nationals don't necessarily have to address center field this year. They could wait until next year when Lorenzo Cain is a free agent and then go after him. The problem with waiting though, is you're committing to another year of Danny Espinosa at shortstop. You're also going into next offseason with a hole in left field and center field because Jayson Werth is going to be a free agent, and the assumption is, once Danny Espinosa is traded this offseason or leaves via free agency next year, Trea Turner will take over at short stop. By signing Dexter Fowler to a three or four year deal, you move Trea to shortstop this season, and your outfield is set. Not only that, but having Fowler and Trea at the top of the lineup could create some real problems for other teams. Although the Nationals have been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, I think that Fowler is the better investment. He's a better fielder, will come cheaper, and is a better fit with the team. The last option is to stay in house and either hang on to Ben Revere, or let Revere go, do nothing else, and go into next season with Werth in left, Trea in center, Bryce in right, and Brian Goodwin as your fourth outfielder. That's the worst of the options and also the least likely. I don't know that Mike Rizzo will sign Fowler, but if he doesn't, expect him to make a trade to acquire an outfielder.
That brings us to the dilemma at catcher. Prior to Wilson Ramos's injury, the Nationals definitely would have extended a Qualifying Offer and probably would have tried to resign Wilson. Since the injury, it's a whole different story, the Nationals didn't extend the Qualifying Offer, and the Nationals may not be willing to meet Wilson's asking price since he won't be ready for the start of next year and there are questions as to how his legs are going to hold up. There are some catching options out there, led by the Orioles' Matt Wieters, but I don't see the Nationals going that route. The Nationals will most likely make a trade here. Brian McCann is an option, as is Derek Norris, but Rizzo's biggest target should be Stephen Vogt of the Athletics.
Mike Rizzo and Billy Beane have worked numerous deals together, so there's no doubt that they could get together here and make a deal. The question is going to be, what is Beane's asking price for his 32 year old catcher who still has four years of team control left? If I were Beane, the asking price would be high, and if I'm Mike Rizzo, depending on how high the asking price is (obviously no Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, or Victor Robles), I'd probably be willing to meet it. Vogt is an extremely versatile, left handed hitting catcher. Vogt doesn't only play catcher, he has played first base and both corner outfield positions throughout his career. This is a guy who isn't going to cost you a whole lot being that he is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and is going to bring some pop to the lineup. He is a .255 career hitter and has hit 32 home runs over the past two years. The only red flag is Vogt is a .264 career hitter against right handed pitching and a .215 career hitter against left handers, so this could turn into a platoon behind the plate where Severino plays against lefties and Vogt plays against righties.
There are obviously more moves to be made with the bullpen and bench, but those will come sporadically throughout the offseason and some may even come in house. By adding Melancon, Fowler, and Vogt, the Nationals would put themselves in prime position to compete for a World Series Championship without breaking the bank. By splurging to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals would spend all of their money on one player without addressing their other needs. It seems like a no brainer to me, and in the end, I think it will be a no brainer to Mike Rizzo as well.
