We are 19 days from pitchers and catchers reporting. Guys
like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and JD Martinez are still free agents – but the
real news is baseball is less than one month away. It’s been a bizarre
offseason. Everybody wants to find a way to get below the luxury tax prior to
next offseason, so in turn, very few teams want to spend any money. The
Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs are all below the luxury tax and are planning on keeping it that way. The only two teams currently projected to be over the luxury tax
are the Nationals and the Red Sox.
It’s widely known that next offseason projects to be
one of the biggest offseason’s in Major League Baseball history. Bryce Harper,
Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones,
Daniel Murphy and Clayton Kershaw, among many others, are all expected to hit
the market. Money is going to be flying around. But, that leaves the big name
free agents of this offseason wondering where all the money is. Chances are, a
couple of the big market teams (the Cubs, Phillies – who have a projected
payroll of just $84 million, Cardinals, etc.) or maybe even a couple small market teams (based on what we saw last night from the Brewers) will open up the checkbook and
sign the big name free agents left on the market, possibly even at a bargain
rate. If there are some bargains out there though, expect the Nationals to be involved.
The Nationals are already over the luxury tax and have almost no shot of getting under it. They will be taxed at a rate of 30% on any overage. Right now, their overage is about $4.6 million, meaning they would be taxed a little under $1.4 million. That’s certainly not chump change, but it’s not putting a dent in the Lerner’s pocket either. Between Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, Ryan Madson, and Shawn Kelley, the Nationals clear about $100 million of payroll next offseason. Even if you offer Bryce Harper a $40 million per year contract at the end of the season, you’ve still cleared about $60 million (realistically more like $15-20 million after you go through arbitration and sign other free agents to fill out the roster). Bottom line being - you’ll be under the luxury tax next year.
You’re in an offseason where the big spenders are standing pat for the most part. You are one offseason before your franchise cornerstone hits free agency. If there is one time where the Lerners go for the jugular, it should be now. As of today, the Nationals essentially have their 2017 playoff roster back intact, minus Jayson Werth, but with the addition of Adam Eaton. They’ve resigned Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick to team friendly deals. The only areas that could use a potential boost are catcher, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Could the Nationals coast into the playoffs with Matt Wieters starting 130+ games and a combination of AJ Cole, Edwin Jackson, and Erick Fedde starting 30+ games as the 5th starter? Of course they can. That doesn’t make it ideal, especially once the playoffs roll around.
After the Marlins continued their fire sale last night by dealing Christian Yelich to the Brewers, rumors started popping up that the Nationals are the front runners to acquire JT Realmuto. This is a deal that has to get done. It's that simple. Trading within your division can be difficult, but both teams are in completely different places right now and both have incentive to get a deal done. As we know, the Nationals are over the luxury tax as is, and with Realmuto projected to make about $3.2 million in arbitration this season, that would put the Nationals at about $7.8 million over the luxury tax. But what if we could actually reduce how far the Nationals are over the luxury tax with this trade? The Marlins are demanding top prospects in return for Realmuto (as they should). However, right now they want Victor Robles as a headliner, which just isn't going to happen. According to Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post, Mike Rizzo is also refusing to discuss Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, or Juan Soto in any trade (although it's odd to me why Anthony Rendon was even mentioned). Let's say that Rizzo agrees to trade Juan Soto as a headliner in a Realmuto deal. By including Soto, who is the Nationals 2nd best prospect, and a top 50 prospect in MLB, could Rizzo then attach Matt Wieters $10.5 million contract to this deal as a salary dump? Obviously, the Marlins wouldn't take Soto and Wieters for Realmuto, but something like Soto, Wieters, Erick Fedde, and either Raudy Read or Pedro Severino for Realmuto and Junichi Tazawa could work. This gives the Marlins 3 of the Nationals top 10 or so prospects, while the Nationals get a young, talented, controllable catcher and about $1.2 million in salary relief. For comparison, the Marlins just acquired the Brewers top prospect, 5th best, 9th best, and one unranked prospect for 5 years of control of Christian Yelich. Yelich comes with more control and is an overall better hitter than Realmuto, so it should come as no surprise that the Marlins would get less for Realmuto than they would for Yellich. I think the Marlins could be convinced to take Wieters, but only if Tazawa is in the deal, since Tazawa is owed $7 million this year. Tazawa would provide very little to the Nationals, but he is another right handed reliever that could compete for a bullpen spot at the very least. If the Marlins won't bite on taking Wieters back, then maybe Rizzo takes Soto off the table and offers Fedde, Daniel Johnson, and Read or Severino for Realmuto. In that scenario, the Marlins still would receive the Nationals 4th, 7th, and 10th best prospects.
The Nationals could also just decide to go the free agency route, in which case Alex Avila would be a nice option. He could start 70-80 games, while Wieters starts the other 80-90. Avila is also a left-handed hitter, and although Matt Wieters is a switch hitter, he hits about .30 points higher as a right-handed batter. Some sort of platoon could be very beneficial. As far as the fifth starter goes, you could look to bring in Jaime Garcia or John Lackey. Both Garcia and Lackey know Nationals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist very well from their time together in St. Louis and neither would be looking for a big commitment as far as years and dollars go. If you're looking for a final bullpen piece, then familiar faces in Matt Albers and Matt Belisle are available and would most likely only require a one year commitment on the cheaper side ($2-3 million). The options are out there, it's just a matter of what kind of money is left in the budget.
The Nationals could also just decide to go the free agency route, in which case Alex Avila would be a nice option. He could start 70-80 games, while Wieters starts the other 80-90. Avila is also a left-handed hitter, and although Matt Wieters is a switch hitter, he hits about .30 points higher as a right-handed batter. Some sort of platoon could be very beneficial. As far as the fifth starter goes, you could look to bring in Jaime Garcia or John Lackey. Both Garcia and Lackey know Nationals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist very well from their time together in St. Louis and neither would be looking for a big commitment as far as years and dollars go. If you're looking for a final bullpen piece, then familiar faces in Matt Albers and Matt Belisle are available and would most likely only require a one year commitment on the cheaper side ($2-3 million). The options are out there, it's just a matter of what kind of money is left in the budget.
On the other hand, if the Nationals decide that they don't need to upgrade anywhere else heading into this season, locking up free agent to be, Mike Rizzo, might not be a bad end to the offseason either.
