That was just an abysmal series in Cincinnati this weekend. Three rookie pitchers for the Reds beat the Nationals this weekend. Michael Lorenzen, who pitched today for the Reds, probably should have given up about 4-5 runs today, instead his final line was 6 1/3 innings pitched, 2 earned runs, 1 (ONE) hit, 6 (SIX) walks, and 4 strikeouts. Yeah the guy walked 6 batters and really should have walked more, but the Nats inability to be patient at the plate allowed him to work into the 7th inning only allowing one hit. What a joke. Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both came up hacking on the first pitch right after Lorenzen had issued a 4 pitch walk to the previous batter. In both situations, runners were on first and second. Isn't it common baseball knowledge that when a guy is having trouble throwing strikes, you don't swing at the first pitch, you make him throw you strikes? Don't help a guy out when he's struggling, especially when you have a chance to score some runs if you're patient.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Stay Hot
There's not much more to say other than stay hot. The Nats are 20-5 in their last 25 games and 27-18 overall. Their latest loss is yet again, another Strasburg start. Matt Williams has managed the bullpen nicely over this 25 game stretch. The hitting is better than we expected at this point, especially still without Werth and Rendon. The bullpen has settled down a bit and the team is looking good.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
With that being said, the Nats are going to sooner or later deal with what's going on with Strasburg. They keep saying he's healthy and I 100% believe that. Strasburg sprained his ankle in Spring Training and as a result he tweaked his mechanics so that he was landing differently on his bad ankle. The problem is, the ankle has healed, but his mechanics haven't reverted to his old way. Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nats, the only thing really left to do is to place Strasburg on the 15 day DL so that he can try and work on his mechanics in the bullpen. It's not beneficial for the Nats or for Strasburg for him to go out there every 5th day and give you a stat line of 4 innings pitched and 6 earned runs. It drains the Nationals bullpen and Strasburg's confidence goes plummeting each time that happens.
I need to reiterate this though - Strasburg IS NOT hurt, he would go on the DL to work this mechanical issue out. There's zero point in sending him down to the minors because his stuff alone would dominate batters down there and people would get excited that he's back to his old form. He's still throwing 96-97 when he wants to, his changeup and curve are fine as well. He is not seeing results because he is not locating his pitches. Having control and being able to locate are two completely different things. Stras has control, his walk rate is only a slight tick up from his career walk rate. He does not have the ability to locate right now though. When he's throwing that 96 MPH fastball down the middle, the control is there, he's throwing strikes. When Wilson Ramos is calling for that pitch to be down and in on the batter though, we see that he isn't locating. That right there is the difference between jamming a guy/striking a guy out and a homer. That's why a stint on the 15 day DL is beneficial for all, especially since we know Tanner Roark is ready to step in for whoever may need it. Side note - I'd like to once again make it known how awesome Tanner Roark is (1 win as a starting pitcher, a few holds out of the bullpen, and a save...all in the first 45 games of the season).
Fortunately, the guys are hot right now so there isn't much else to touch on at the moment. The Nats need a healthy Strasburg to reach their goal this year though. I love Gio and Fister just as much, if not more than most people do, but a playoff rotation headlined by a healthy Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Stras is pretty scary, especially if this team can keep the hitting up.
Bonus Talk:
In two separate series last week we got to see two hilarious things happen. First against the Yankees, we had the pleasure of seeing Marvin Hudson decide that he was going to be the star of the game. Hudson decided to toss Bryce Harper for not getting back into the batters box. It makes it even better that Harper was in the batters box, he stepped out only because Hudson wanted to jaw back at Matt Williams. Please note - Matt Williams is not even on the field, he's in the dugout, a normal umpire would ignore this. How dare you speak to Marvin Hudson though while he's working. If you're a National and you even have the audacity to ask Hudson where he's eating dinner later that night he will toss you. Hudson has a history with the Nationals, he made one of the worst calls I've seen a Major League umpire make in 2012 when he called Martin Prado safe at first on a play where Edwin Jackson made a throw to Adam LaRoche that beat Prado by 1 to 1 1/2 steps. My dog could have easily made the right call on thaqt play, that's how easy of a call it was. Look, if Marvin Hudson is from Montreal and is a former Expos fan, that's fine. He doesn't have to take it out on the Nats though. In all honesty, the guy should be banned from umpiring any future Nationals games, he clearly has something against the team.
Second hilarious moment of the week was when Ryne Sandberg made it known that he didn't like the Nationals music choice for the Phillies while they were taking batting practice. The Nats play a bunch of "soft" rock songs during the opponents batting practice, nobody has really taken offense or minded, except for Ryne Sandberg. Ryne, you're a great former Major Leaguer, your managing is unspectacular but that's more so because of what Ruben Amaro has screwed you with. Bottom line, worry about managing your awful team. You're 19-28 and 9 games out of the division already. Concentrate on winning games, or for that matter, staying competitive, not on what music is playing during batting practice. Tool.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The Nats Are Hot...Except When Stras Pitches
At the time of my last post, the Nationals were 7 1/2 games behind the Mets and in sole possession of last place in the NL East. Since then, they've gone 12-3 and shaved 5 games off the Mets lead to jump to second place and 2 1/2 games back (if the Mets win tonight, 1 1/2 if they lose). For the first time this season, following an awful 6 game losing streak, the Nats are hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
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