He made a grand entrance last year by blowing 2 of his 9 save opportunities and then choking out Bryce Harper in one of the final games of the season. You'd think his 77% conversion rate on save opportunities combined with the fact that he choked out the NL MVP would be enough to either release him or try and trade him (who the hell would want him though), but no, Rizzo decided it would be a great idea to hang onto him. I couldn't be happier that he did! Papelbon now has 3 blown saves in 22 opportunities this year along with a 2-4 record and is sporting a sweet 4.18 ERA. If you were curious, that ERA is the worst of any current closer in the National League. Frankly, I don't care if he's hurt, old, or just plain sucks. He has no business being a closer on a first place team. If Mike Rizzo and the Lerners can't handle releasing him and having to eat the rest of the money on his salary, then so be it, give him mop up opportunities in a 9-2 game every once in a while, but I don't want to see him in one more close game for the rest of the year.
The man who made this dream come true, Mike Rizzo, should really be thinking long and hard about who he wants to take over for Papelbon in the 9th. One of the problems here is Rizzo is always looking to either pay pennies on the dollar for a player or to get the other team to pick up most of a player's remaining salary before he acquires them. That's great and all, but this year's trade market doesn't allow for that. The Cubs already gave up their top prospect, a Major League reliever, and two other Minor League prospects to essentially rent Aroldis Chapman for 2-3 months. That's a steep price to pay, but at the same time, if you think you're one or two pieces away from a World Series, then it's well worth it. Are the Nationals one or two pieces away? It's quite possible.
The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are a leadoff hitter and a closer. Well, the Nationals may fill that first need in house. Trea Turner has looked very good over the past couple of weeks and his speed is a game changer. Will he play center field everyday? Probably not, but Ben Revere is still available to play center and hit leadoff when Trea isn't. Revere has truly hit into some awful luck this year, he's hitting around .220, but he's hitting line drives right at people, he could easily be hitting around .260 right now. Still not great from your leadoff hitter, but it's a lot easier to swallow than .220. The Nationals could also try and fill their need for a closer in house, but it would be a terrible idea. Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen would be the two most likely candidates, but then you're taking away one of your more reliable set up men and turning them into your closer. It shortens your bullpen by one man essentially.
The available closers currently on the market are Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, David Robertson, Jeremy Jeffress, Huston Street (who has been worse than Papelbon), and possibly a couple of others. The Nationals main targets would be Miller, Davis, Jeffress, and Robertson, probably in that order. Here's the tricky part though, Rizzo doesn't want to pay the price tag for any of these guys. Miller and Davis would both cost two of the Nationals top four prospects plus another couple of mid tier prospects. Jeffress would probably cost one of the Nationals top four prospects plus a couple of mid tier prospects. Robertson, however, may come the cheapest. He's in the midst of his worst season and he's still owed $25 million over the next two years. If the Nationals are willing to pick up the majority of that, they would probably be able to hang onto their upper tier prospects and make a deal happen with a couple of their lesser prospects. Would I love to see Rizzo deal for Andrew Miller? Absolutely, he's one of the most dominant relievers in the game, but the reality is Rizzo isn't going to do that. Don't ask me why he's set on hanging onto three of the games top pitching prospects when he has four of his five rotation spots set for the next three years. Trust me, dealing one of them truly wouldn't hurt if it meant acquiring Miller.
Knowing that Rizzo isn't going to meet the price tag for Miller or Davis, I'm really hoping he makes a move for David Robertson. Robertson is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 11.9 strikeouts over 9 innings throughout his career and he has postseason experience. His numbers are down and part of that may be that he never settled into Chicago. Maybe he needs a change of scenery.
Here's a possible outline of a Robertson deal:
Nationals receive: David Robertson and $10 million
White Sox receive: A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, and Trevor Gott
I'm not sure that would get the deal done, but that would be my starting point. If the White Sox ask for somebody like Koda Glover instead of Gott, I would probably do it. This kind of deal would allow the Nationals to hang onto Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, Reynaldo Lopez, and Erik Fedde, all of whom they don't want to deal. It's time for Rizzo to make a deal and get a closer who we can trust.
