What Do You Do?

It's a question that every Nationals fan has asked themselves. It's a question that Mike Rizzo, Ted Lerner and Mark Lerner have asked themselves. Everybody knew this offseason was coming, but for so many years, it felt like it was so far away. But it's here. Decision day is looming, even if a final decision hasn't yet been made. What do you do?

There is no easy answer. Quite frankly, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. Yes, this is all about Bryce Harper. The tantalizing talent, that despite his struggles in the first half of this season, turned in his first 100+ RBI season, to go along with 34 bombs. The 26 year old superstar that has been on the cover of every Nationals article written since he broke into the Major Leagues in 2012. 

The Nationals will clear nearly $69 million in payroll this offseason. As Chelsea Janes points out, that number will more closely resemble about $30 million or so once you take into consideration the raises players like Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Tanner Roark will get in arbitration this offseason. Here's the thing though - when you look at the Nationals payroll, it's difficult to calculate. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both have sky-high payroll figures for the 2019 season, $37.4 million and $38.333 million, respectively. That's $75.733 million between two starting pitchers. The Nationals will not, however, be paying Scherzer or Strasburg anywhere near those figures. In fact, if you look at Scherzer's contract, you'll see that he's due to make $35 million in base salary per season in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but every penny of that $105 million is deferred money, payable in 7 installments of $15 million each, starting in 2022, when his contract with the Nationals ends. Strasburg's deal is similar. He's due $35 million in base salary in 2019, but $30 million is deferred. Scherzer and Strasburg will each receive part of their signing bonus this year as salary. As it goes with the rest of the Nationals payroll, the actual amount that each of them will receive next year is not exactly clear. But let's say for instance, Scherzer receives $15 million total this year, instead of the listed $37.4, and Strasburg also receives $15 million (I pick those numbers because it seems based on the deferrals and length of deferrals, that is the actual amount that Scherzer and Strasburg receive each season, excluding incentives). If you've got $30 million instead of $75.733 million in real money invested in those two next season, then you really have an extra $45.733 on top of that $30 million that cleared the books from players no longer on the team. That's $75.733 million, even after the arbitration eligible players are paid. 

The thing is - the Nationals still have glaring needs. They need a catcher, they need a second baseman, they need another starting pitcher and shockingly, they need to revamp their bullpen. That $75.733 million doesn't seem like such a large sum anymore, especially if you have hopes of resigning Bryce Harper.

The Nationals don't need Bryce Harper, just like Bryce Harper doesn't necessarily need the Nationals. But unlike their neighbors to the north, who have the money, but still decided to let the face of the franchise go without even so much as making a legitimate offer, the Nationals want to bring Bryce back. From the sounds of it, Bryce wants to come back. Again, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. The Nationals are set to deploy an outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton next season. Not one executive in the Majors would look at that and blame the Nationals if they just bowed out and said they were ready to move on from Bryce. In fact, some would say that's what the Nationals should do. Why wouldn't you want to deploy and outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Bryce Harper, though? Nothing against Adam Eaton, who is a fantastic player, but he's not Bryce Harper. So, here's where it gets tricky.

If you thought that Max Scherzer's contract was confusing, wait until you see what Bryce Harper's is going to look like. There are going to be multiple opt outs, and if it's with the Nationals, there will absolutely be deferrals. Either way, you've got to figure that Bryce and Scott Boras will be looking to sign the richest contract, both in overall value and in average annual value, in the history of the game. So, if that's the case, the highest salary next year belongs to Mike Trout, who will earn a little over $34 million. You'd imagine Bryce would be targeting a $35 million average, which will probably be a little steep, even on the open market. A possible workaround though, could be a 12-year $330 million deal. That would edge Giancarlo Stanton's $325 million deal, but the average annual value would fall short of the $35 million mark, coming in at $27.5 million. Assuming there are a couple of opt-out opportunities in the contract, the Nationals could structure it in a way favorable to both the team and to Bryce. If you front load the contract and offer $105 million due in the first 3 years of the deal, Bryce would earn $35 million in each of those three years. That would beat Trout's average annual value. Bryce would then have the opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 9 years and $225 million of the contract and hit free agency again at 29 years old. If Bryce were to opt out and hit free agency at 29, the Nationals would likely bow out. The team would be off the hook for the remaining $225 million and wouldn't have to worry about how Bryce would age over the next 10 years as the contract goes on (see Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera).

The trickle down effect of Bryce resigning will be felt in a couple different areas though. Adam Eaton will most likely be on his way out of town if Bryce resigns. Although, there is an interesting scenario where the Nationals hang onto Eaton and let Soto platoon with Zimmerman at first base. No, that's not saying Soto won't play everyday - he will. He would be the primary left fielder, but would play first in a similar role to how Matt Adams and Adam Lind played first the past two years. That allows Soto to play everyday and Eaton to still log somewhere between 350-400 at bats next season. It may not make sense to keep Eaton for $8.4 million, but if he's on the roster along with Bryce next season, it's because either Soto or Bryce are going to play some first base. If Eaton is dealt, the Nationals save that $8.4 million, pick up a couple good prospects in return and then can potentially reallocate that money elsewhere, which is huge because of the need in the rotation and the bullpen. The other player that will feel a trickle down effect of Bryce's extension is Anthony Rendon. Rendon is poised to become a free agent following the 2019 season. With Bryce and his big fat contract back in the fold, there is most likely not enough money left to pay Rendon next year. If Bryce walks, the Nationals will likely immediately pivot to locking Rendon up this offseason. Although Rendon is represented by Scott Boras, who likes his players to the open market, Rendon has already made it clear he's willing to discuss an extension. A Rendon extension would surely be a fraction of the cost of a Harper extension (think 7 years $160 million-ish). 

If you were looking at starting the offseason with somewhere near $75.733 million to spend, you're looking at $40.733 million after a possible Bryce extension. That feels light when the Nationals are going to have to address other needs. If you trade Eaton, you're possibly looking at around $49.133 million, and that's only if the Lerners are willing to match last year's payroll. Either way, it's not an exorbitant amount of money to spend when you take into consideration what the starting pitching and relief market normally commands. We'll dive into what the Nationals can do to improve their other needs this offseason at a later time, but for now, it's decision time for the Nationals and unfortunately, there's no clear way to go and it may very well come down to who to keep: Bryce Harper vs. Anthony Rendon.

The Final Month

It's been a rough year for Nationals fans. Despite high expectations, the team has hovered around .500 much of the year and in the process, watched the Braves turn into a contender (and likely a powerhouse in the National League for years to come). Frankly, if you don't care about seeing some of the eventual September call-ups playing, there's no real reason to watch Nationals games anymore. The Nationals are 8 games back of the Braves in the N.L. East and 7 games back in the wild card (behind 3 other teams for the second spot). The Nationals have slim to no shot at making the playoffs. They haven't been less than 7 games behind the Braves since August 12th, so there's no reason to think they can make an actual push with just 28 games to go. 

On August 13th, I said that by today, we would probably see Rizzo try to move Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Kelvin Herrera and Matt Adams. Herrera clearly isn't going anywhere, but with Murphy and Adams already out, it looks like Gio and Ryan Madson could be next. I can't imagine a contender actually wants Gio Gonzalez starting every 5th day for them, but there is apparent interest. It makes me wonder about the competence of the scouting department of the interested teams, but that's not the Nationals problem. Ryan Madson was claimed on revocable waivers last night by the Dodgers and it appears that he will be headed to Los Angeles sometime in the next 24 hours (probably as a straight waiver claim, as his 5.28 ERA doesn't warrant a prospect return).

The deals for Murphy and Adams were odd. Not because I didn't expect them to be traded, but because of the timing of the deal. Rizzo placed Murphy and Adams on waivers on Friday, August 17th, just prior to a 3 game series against the Marlins. The Nationals were 61-61 at the time, coming off an atrocious road trip, 8 games back in the East and 6 1/2 back in the wild card. They had 3 games against the Marlins and then 6 of their next 9 games against the Phillies. I had circled today as the day that the Nationals would unload any upcoming free agents (aside from Bryce) because it's an off day, coming off a stretch of 6 of 9 games against a viable playoff contender. It's a time where the front office could have sat back and assessed where the team is and what their strategy was going to be for the rest of the season. Being that the Nationals sat back and did a whole lot of nothing at the trade deadline, selling off pieces on August 20th, instead of August 30th seemed very odd, especially when you had 12 games in a row against division opponents sitting in front of you. If there was a time that the Nationals were going to make a move to get back in the race, it was going to be last week, so having one of your best hitters no longer on the team doesn't help your cause. It's not like the Nationals got a big return for either player. I'm sure the return on both would have been the same today as it was on August 20th. Could Murphy or Adams have changed the outcome in any of those 3 shutout losses last week? We'll never know, hence the odd timing of the deals.

We can assess the season as a whole sometime in October, when we're all sitting back on the couch and watching actual good teams play playoff baseball. One major thing we're going to take a look at though is whether or not Davey Martinez is in over his head. The early answer is absolutely. I've been fairly patient with him this season and I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt being that he's a rookie manager, but the early assessment is that he's not the guy that we were told he would be. He does not use analytics, he does not have a good feel for when to go to the bullpen, and I'm fairly concerned about what kind of presence he has in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have a leader (it's tough for Max as a pitcher to be that guy). This team needs their manager to be their leader and unfortunately, Davey isn't going to be that guy - Dusty Baker and Davey Johnson were that guy. Joe Girardi could have been that guy. I anticipate that Davey will be back (take that with a grain of salt - I also anticipated Dusty Baker would be back) and the hope is that he will learn from his mistakes in year one. Maybe this team resets in the offseason and comes back next season to win the division. Right now though, the way this season has played out, it seems like they've got a long road ahead.

Wave the White Flag

The Washington Nationals 2018 season ended last night, once again at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. I don't care what the standings say, they've said the same thing for the past 2 months - the Nationals are close enough to make a move, and close enough to not be written off, but I'm officially writing them off. On June 30th, the Nationals were 3 games over .500 and 5 games out of first place. Today, the Nationals are 2 games over .500 and 5.5 games out of first place. They've gone 18-19 in that stretch and lost a half game in the standings. 

There is nothing to this point insinuating that this team is anything more than a .500 team. They played 8 2/3 of nearly flawless baseball last night and lost on a walk-off grand slam. They find new ways to lose winnable games on a nightly basis. They're 11-20 in 1-run games. That's the 5th worst record in 1-run games in the Major Leagues. The teams with worse records in 1-run games are the Orioles, Twins, Mets and Reds. Those 4 teams have a combined winning percentage of .405 this season. The Nationals have played 22 games since they all-star break. They're 12-10 in those 22 games. In 5 of those 10 losses, they've either been tied or leading in the 6th inning or later. This is not a good baseball team. They would have to go 30-14 to get to 90 wins now. It's not going to happen. The Braves have to go 26-21 to reach 90 wins and the Phillies have to go 25-20 to reach 90 wins. That will not be difficult for either of those teams. 

There are many delicate flowers nursing themselves back to health right now. Stephen Strasburg, Kelvin Herrera and now Ryan Madson all have had poor outings since the all-star break that have cost the Nationals 3 wins. All 3 have claimed they are not healthy after the game. They did not tell the bullpen coach, the pitching coach or the manager of the injury prior to entering the game in any of those three scenarios. They instead told the media after the game. It's easy to claim you're injured after a poor outing. It's way easier than saying "yeah, I didn't have it tonight, I let the team down". So, these three will now hang out on the disabled list together, knowing that they've blown multiple opportunities for this team to make a move in the division race due to their "injuries". 

There's no accountability, no cohesiveness and most of all no urgency from this team. Davey Martinez's post game interviews are turning more and more Matt Williams like by the day. I don't know if he realizes this, but the season will end. There will be a day where you won't be able to say "I believe in these guys, they're going to get hot and when they do, watch out." Matt Williams is still somewhere talking about the game "tomorrow." Pretty soon, Davey Martinez might be right next to him. Mike Rizzo is lucky he got his extension prior to the season, because right or wrong, he wouldn't be getting one after this season.

There isn't a whole lot to look forward to for the rest of the season, but there are a couple of things to watch out for. If and when Mike Rizzo decides this team is out of it - possibly around August 30th which would be right after 6 games in 9 days against the Phillies, he will probably try to trade Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, Kelvin Herrera and Gio Gonzalez. Assuming all can clear waivers, or assuming a trade can be worked out with a claiming team for each of those players, Rizzo will have officially called it a year. Once that happens, the only thing left will be to see if the Lerners make the decision to move on from Davey Martinez. He will still have 2 years left on his deal, but only at $750,000 per year. I don't imagine they will have a problem with that if they want to bring somebody else on board. At this point though, there aren't going to be many candidates lining up to take this job. Many free agents will be departing and you'll be managing a team where the owners have shown no loyalness to its manager. It has not been a good year for baseball in the nation's capital and it only looks to get worse from here.

Second Half Recipe

The second half will begin on Friday with the Nationals sitting at 48-48, in 3rd place in the National League East and 5.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals need to do better. There is too much talent on this roster for them to be a .500 team through 96 games this season. The next 66 games are a golden opportunity to show the baseball world that they're not quite dead. Unfortunately, the hole they dug in the first half means they probably have to play .630 or better baseball in the second half to make the playoffs, but they've done that numerous times in prior seasons. The goal is reach 90 wins, which would mean a 42-24 second half for the Nationals. The Nationals have played .600 or better baseball in the second half 3 times in the past 6 seasons. In 2012, the Nationals went 49-30 in the second half, in 2014, they went 45-24 and in 2016, they went 45-29. They're going to have to make it 4 of the past 7 to be playing baseball this October.

The Nationals are tied for the 7th easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Phillies check in tied for the 5th easiest and the Braves are tied for the 10th easiest. The Nationals opponent's winning percentage is a combined .492. They have 19 combined games left against the Marlins and Mets. The season could very well come down to how they play in those 19 games. Say you go 15-4 in those 19 games (highly unlikely, but possible), that means you have to go 27-20 in your remaining 47 games. That seems a lot less daunting than going 42-24 over 66 games. Beat the bad teams. It's how the Nationals have won the division the past two years. It's going to be the recipe to do it again this year. They are 21-14 against teams below .500 so far this year. That's a .600 winning percentage. For comparison, the Nationals played .616 baseball against below .500 teams last year. The biggest difference between the two years is that the Nationals played an astounding 120 of their 162 games against teams below .500 last year. That's 74% of their games. So far this year, they've played just 35 of their first 96 games against teams below .500. They have 25 games remaining against teams below .500. There clearly aren't as many games against sub-par opponents as there were last year, which means the opportunity to pounce on those teams looms even larger.

The second part to mounting this comeback is equally as important as beating the bad teams. The Nationals have 18 combined games left against the Phillies and Braves. They get the Braves for a 3 game series straight out of the break. They have a pivotal road trip from September 10-16 where they go to Philadelphia for 3 and then to Atlanta for 3. These 18 games are a golden opportunity to make up ground on the two teams in front of you. The goal has to be win each of those 6 series. If you win all 6 series by winning 2 of 3 games (there are no remaining 4 game series against either of these teams), then you go at least 12-6 against those two teams. There's no doubt that 12-6 is unlikely, as is 15-4 against the below .500 teams, but if you do it, you set yourself up really nicely.

So, the big question is - how do you make this happen? Bryce needs to catch fire, Roark needs to get back on track, Strasburg needs to stay healthy and Zimmerman needs to come back mirroring his 2017 self. Those who may have forgotten, Manny Machado had an extremely average first half last season. Machado hit .230/.296/.445 with a .741 OPS, 18 home runs and 47 RBI. He rebounded to hit .290/.326/.500 with a .826 OPS, 15 home runs and 48 RBI in the second half. Bryce's first half numbers this year, minus batting average, are actually better than Machado's first half last year. There's no reason to think that Bryce can't catch fire and carry this team offensively for a month or more. Strasburg's health and Tanner Roark's consistency are the key to the starting rotation's success in the second half. If Roark comes out and throws one or two duds to start the second half, then you can expect Mike Rizzo to make a deal to bring in a starting pitcher. In the past, the Nationals were fortunate enough to be able to let their starting pitchers "work through" their issues because of their large division leads. This year, they can't afford to have starting pitchers consistently putting them in 3-0 and 4-0 holes after the 2nd or 3rd inning.

The Chicago Cubs went into the All-Star break last year at 43-45 and 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. They went on to finish 92-70 and win the N.L. Central by 6 games. They rode a 49-25 second half into the playoffs. The Nationals can win the N.L. East this year. They need to come back from the break relaxed and ready for a battle with the Phillies and Braves. They need to take at least 2 of 3 against the Braves coming out of the break to set the tone for the second half comeback. They need to be ready to flex their muscles and show the rest of the league they're not dead. On the heels of Bryce Harper's impending free agency, this is either going to be the most exciting second half that Nationals fans have ever seen, or a second half that culminates in one of the most disappointing seasons that Nationals fans have endured since baseball came back to the District in 2005.

July 31st

After 2 straight losses, they're back to .500 at 45-45. They're 3-6 in July. They finished June 9-16. The arrow is pointing down, but these next 6 games before the All-Star break may very well decide whether or not the Nationals are buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Nationals started this "easy" 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets with a 3-2 record. Not good. These are bad teams. They needed an 8-3 stretch here, so that means a 5-1 finish to the first half. Not impossible, but surely not likely based on how the starting rotation is pitching. The starters finished June with a cumulative 3-14 record and a 5.54 ERA. Not to be outdone, they've started July with a 1-4 record and a 7.98 ERA. They're not getting it done. They're not giving the team a chance to win. Tanner Roark is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA over his past 5 starts and Gio Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA over his past 5 starts.

The bats are not completely off the hook, but, they're putting up 5.56 runs per game so far in July, which is coming off a June where we saw them hit .238 and average 4 runs per game. That does take into account the 14 run outburst on Thursday and the 18 run outburst on Saturday, but it's an improvement from June, nonetheless. But, when you're allowing 6.22 runs per game and start every game in a 3-0 hole, you put an already struggling offense in a terrible situation. I'm not sure what the solution is right now. The already taxed bullpen can't catch a break because the starters can't get through the 4th inning. A bullpen with no clear long reliever can only take so much abuse before it falters. For now, it would be reasonable to expect Jefry Rodriguez get sent back down so the Nationals can call a fresh arm up, most likely Sammy Solis, Wander Suero or Trevor Gott. On Saturday, the Nationals will need a 5th starter again, which will most likely be Austin Voth. We can only hope we've seen the last of Jefry Rodriguez for the year. If we haven't, it means this team is in big trouble.

At 45-45, the Nationals are 5.5 games out of first place and 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Unless they fall 9 or 10 games back, the Nationals aren't going to sell at the deadline. Even then, they still might not sell. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it's been how this team operates ever since they made the playoffs in 2012. In 2013, when they were 11 games out with a 52-56 record at the end of July and they didn't sell.

Aside from winning games, the Nationals need to do something they haven't done at the trade deadline since they've become buyers. They need to acquire a starting pitcher. Some of the names that have been tossed around are J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi. All of those are rental players, but two other rental players that nobody seems to be talking about are Garrett Richards and Lance Lynn. The Angels are currently 11 games out of a playoff spot and the Twins are 8.5 games out. Both are going to be sellers. If Garrett Richards becomes available, he probably will be the most sought after starting pitcher on the market. Although he has a history of injuries, Richards owns a 3.52 career ERA and a 5-4 record through 15 starts this year with a 3.42 ERA. Lynn on the other hand, has a 6-7 record through 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA. The 5.21 ERA leaves a lot to be desired, but Lynn has given the Twins quality starts in 7 of his past 12 starts and aside from his July 1st start against the Cubs, he hasn't given up more than 4 earned runs in a start since April. Lynn could definitely benefit from a switch back to the National League. The other positive with Lynn is that he most likely wouldn't cost too much. The Twins still owe Lynn a little over $5 million, so if the Nationals assume most or all of that salary, the Twins will most likely take a mid-level prospect in return. Lance Lynn for Brigham Hill, who was the Nationals 5th round pick in 2017 and 18th best prospect, could be enough to get a deal done. Acquiring Richards would probably require a top 10 prospect, along with a lesser prospect. That price could prove to be too high, especially if the team is still floundering towards the end of July.

First thing's first - play well, finish 5-1 and head into the break at 50-46. It won't be enough to take over first place or take over a wild card spot, but it'll be enough to stay in the hunt, especially with a pivotal 3 game series with the Braves coming right out of the break. Pitch well, put some runs on the board and finish the first half strong.

Dead in the Water

The Nationals finished May with a 32-23 record, which was good for 1/2 game out of first place. Since then, they've gone 10-17, they're 6-15 over their past 21 games, with their lone series win being against the Orioles. They now sit 2 games above .500, 6 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. It's a similar position to the one that the 2013 Nationals were in. Those Nationals were 42-40, 6 games behind the Braves and 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card position. Those Nationals had a 10-16 July, where they finished 52-56, 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games behind the Braves.

Interestingly, the 2013 Nationals and 2018 Nationals have a lot in common. Not a whole lot of hitting, but very solid pitching. The 2013 Nationals averaged 4.05 runs per game, hit .251 and had an OPS of .710. The 2018 Nationals average 4.24 runs per game, hit .239 with an OPS of .715. The pitching was just as close, with the 2013 Nationals having a staff ERA of 3.59 and the 2018 Nationals sitting at 3.67. The 2013 Nationals finished with a 86-76 record. They finished 11 games behind the Braves and 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. The way the 2018 Nationals look right now, they'd be lucky to win 86 games. 

You can only harp on the same things so many times, last year it was the bullpen, this year it's the bats. The Nationals top hitter with runners in scoring position so far this season? That would be Max Scherzer who is 5 for 12, good for a .412 batting average. Andrew Stevenson is second, going 5 for 13. Matt Adams is third, hitting .357, going 15 for 42 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals have gone 4-11 without Matt Adams. They're averaging 3.93 runs per game in his absence, and yes, that includes a 17 run outburst on Friday night. Bryce Harper is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, while Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto are both hitting .259. Those numbers aren't horrible, but they surely aren't good. None of your middle of the order bats are hitting over .260 with runners in scoring position. If you want some good comparables, Freddie Freeman is hitting .389 with runners in scoring position, Jose Altuve is at .379, Nolan Arenado is at .354. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have star potential, but they're hitting over .100 points lower than some of the top players in the league with runners in scoring position. Hitting .300+ with runners in scoring position is your only way to drive in 100+ runs in this league. It's tough to win when you rely so heavily on the long ball, hence the 9-16 June record. The Nationals hit 20 home runs in June, which was good for 25th in the Majors. Of those 20 home runs in June, 7 of them were hit on Friday night. 

So, what do you do now? I don't know. Continue breaking the season down into little pieces. You're in the middle of a tougher stretch here with 4 against the Phillies and now 3 against the Red Sox. You're 1-3 so far, so you're probably looking at a 2-5 stretch now. Win 1 against the Red Sox and you're 43-42 headed into an 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets to end the first half. The only acceptable way to finish the first half against those 3 would be by going at least 8-3, hopefully better. At 51-45, you at least give yourself a chance in the second half. Anything worse and you may have put yourself in a hole that you can't dig out of.

Time to Hold Somebody Accountable

Kevin Long was supposed to be the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long is not in fact the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long was given the keys to a fairly loaded lineup, anchored by a superstar and a couple of All-Stars. Kevin Long's work (or lack thereof) may have in fact solidified him as the worst hitting coach in all of Major League Baseball. Kevin Long should not be boarding a plane with the Washington Nationals to head to Philadelphia today. On Monday, July 22, 2013, the Washington Nationals fired hitting coach Rick Eckstein. At that time, the Nationals were hitting .241 and averaging 3.69 runs per game through 98 games. This year's Washington Nationals are hitting .239 and are averaging 4.14 runs per game through 78 games. They have been shut out in 10% their games this season, or 8 times in 78 games. That's the exact amount the 2013 Nationals had been shutout through 78 games and one more time than the Nationals were shutout through the entirety of last season, though it took this Nationals team less than half the time to accomplish that feat.

Kevin Long loves "launch angle". He wants you to hit home runs. That sounds like a lot of fun. Except, the Washington Nationals have hit 85 home runs this year, good for 18th in the Major Leagues in that category. So, if they're not hitting for average and they're not hitting for power, how are they scoring? Well, they're not! In fact, the Nationals have scored a National League low 78 runs in their 22 games in June and haven't scored in over 18 innings of baseball.

Since going from the Yankees to the Mets prior to the 2013 season, only one of Long's teams have cracked the top 20 in MLB in team batting average or OPS, and that was last year's Mets who hit .250, which was good for 19th in the league, with an OPS of .755, which was good for 14th in the league. This is his style. It doesn't work and it hasn't worked for quite some time now. Some people say that batting average is a tired statistic and it doesn't matter all that much anymore. Not me. The 2015 Kansas City Royals finished the year 3rd in the league in batting average, hitting .269. The 2016 Chicago Cubs, the only team in the past 3 years to finish outside of the top 10 in the league, finished the year 14th in batting average, hitting .256 (.17 points higher than this year's Nationals, mind you). The 2017 Houston Astros finished the year last year first in batting average, at .282 and first in OPS, at .823. The Nationals are 22nd in the league in batting average and 19th in OPS. You can't win if you don't get on base. You can't win if you don't score.

If the season ended today, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo would all three finish with the lowest batting averages of their careers. If Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman qualified, they too would finish with the worst batting averages of their careers. When one or two guys have a down year, you just chalk it up to bad luck. When three or more guys are having down years, you can begin to questions the philosophy.

This is not a good fit. Quit trying to make it work. Cut ties here before he can get his paws on Juan Soto's perfect swing and great plate discipline. 

Stuck in Mediocrity

The Nationals are stuck in mediocrity. At least until they can get fully healthy. Some of you may look at the Nationals 37-31 record and say "how can you say the Nationals are mediocre, they're in second place and only a few games out of first?". It's pretty simple really, while the Nationals have done a spectacular job of treading water, going periods of time without Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Matt Wieters in the lineup, it's been just that. Treading water.

If you look at the schedule that the Nationals have played so far this year, they're 10-9 against good teams (teams 5+ games over .500), they're 12-16 against average teams (teams between 5 games under and 5 games over .500) and they're 15-6 against bad teams (teams 5 games or more below .500). You've got to beat the bad teams, which they are doing. Especially right now, when you've got a depleted rotation and a lineup that just isn't getting the job done. If you want to be considered better than mediocre, you have to be better than 12-16 against the other mediocre teams in the league. This past weekend, the Nationals went to Toronto and got swept by a Blue Jays team who had won only 5 of their past 15 games, 4 of those wins coming in a 4 game sweep of the 20-50 Orioles. It was a pathetic display of baseball to say the least.

Right now, this team is missing 2/5 of their rotation, a key bullpen piece and they're still without their starting catcher and starting first baseman. We don't have a timeline for any of those players. The fact that Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are all hitting below .265 tells you all you need to know about the lineup. They are now 2-5 in their last 7 games, 3 of those losses were shutouts and 5 of the 7 were against teams with sub .500 records. With Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson on the disabled list, it's time for the offense to pick up the slack that the pitching staff has been carrying all season long.

Michael A Taylor now hitting .236 compared to Bryce Harper's .217. There was never a point in my life where I thought I'd tell you that Michael A Taylor deserves more playing time than Bryce Harper. Michael A plays spectacular defense to go along with his .412/.459/.588 June batting line (don't forget about the 8 stolen bases as well). Yet, he's the one in a battle for playing time because nobody wants to be the one to tell Bryce and his .146/.241/.208 June batting line that they're taking a seat on the bench. Oh, and Bryce has also struck out in 22 of his 48 June at bats. It's getting worse, not better. If you want to continue to play him everyday, that's fine, but don't continue to hit him at the top of the lineup. Hit him 7th. Treat him like a normal player who's in a slump, not like a superstar who can do no wrong.

The Nationals have 28 games left between now and the All-Star break. They have 12 games remaining against good teams, 5 games against average teams and 11 games against bad teams. A 15-13 finish to the first half would be alright. 18-10 sounds better, but when you're down 2 starting pitchers, it puts you in a tough spot, even when you're playing 11 games against so called "bad" teams. That would put the Nationals at 52-44 at the break. It may not be enough for first place, but it would put them in a good enough spot to still win the division if they can ever get healthy in the second half of the year.

I Guess the Rain Cooled Them Off?

In came the rain and out went the Nationals hot streak. The Nationals were riding a 13-2 stretch coming into last weekend's series against the Dodgers and they proceeded to get swept. Not only did they get swept, but they lost to a 17-26 Dodgers team that just went 1-6 in a 7 game stretch against the Reds and the Marlins. This wasn't about the Dodgers getting hot, this was about the Nationals playing extremely poorly. 

The Nationals went 14 for 94 this weekend against Dodgers pitching. That's good for a .149 batting average. That's against a Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers club. A team that got 2 pitches out of their starting pitcher in the second game of a doubleheader on Saturday night. The Nationals as a team are now hitting .234 on the year. Bryce Harper is hitting .224 (that's just .07 points higher than Ryan Zimmerman, who was absolutely putrid to begin the year), Anthony Rendon is hitting .247 and  Trea Turner is hitting .267, which now that Kendrick is down, leads the team. I'll let that settle in. A guy hitting .267 leads the team in batting average. 

The bullpen hasn't been able to get anybody out, showing shades of 2017. Aside from Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson (who is now on the disabled list) and Sean Doolittle, there's really nobody that you can trust out there. Wander Suero had been solid until he gave up a couple of runs yesterday, but he's still not the kind of guy you can put in high leverage situations. Carlos Torres has been almost as awful as A.J. Cole. Shawn Kelley seems to be finished, Trevor Gott has been more hittable as of late and the love affair for Sammy Solis continues to boggle my mind. Solis has been alright, but nothing more and nothing less. His inability to work a clean inning is concerning. He's a solid left-handed specialist, but righties are hitting .267 off him. 

When you have Max Scherzer leave a game with a 4-2 lead after 7 innings of work, you expect to win. But with this bullpen, they managed to lose on Saturday. The Nationals starting pitchers have a 2.96 ERA on the year. The Nationals are 24-21. That's because the team is hitting .234 and the bullpen has a cumulative 4.72 ERA. 6-7 guys are doing their job, the other 18-19 need to start doing theirs. We all know the story, the Nationals have 11 players on the disabled list. The Nationals are missing 2 middle of the lineup hitters, their starting catcher and their leadoff hitter. The Nationals are without 4 of their bullpen arms. Nobody feels bad for the Nationals. Not one person. These are the cards the Nationals were dealt this season. You can either man up and battle through it until these guys start coming off the disabled list, or you can fold. A week ago, Matt Wieters was in the starting lineup, Howie Kendrick was healthy and Ryan Madson didn't have a muscle strain. This week, we're working with a AAA lineup again and hoping to tread water until mid-June or so.

The Nationals next 9 games are against the Padres, Marlins and Orioles. Those 3 teams are a combined 51-89 on the season, which is good for a .364 winning percentage. If this were a healthy Nationals team, this would be their time to make a move. You'd aim for a 7-2 stretch or better, while picking up a couple more games on the Braves. Instead, we have to be realistic and hope that our starting pitching can continue to carry the team and maybe that's good enough for a 6-3 stretch, but 5-4 seems more realistic. Juan Soto makes his first start tonight. Let's hope Soto can kickstart a struggling offense and get Rendon and Bryce on a little bit of a roll.

Is There Any Sense of Urgency?

The effort is pitiful. The bullpen (with a 5.66 ERA) is pitiful. The fundamentals are pitiful. The only thing that has met and even possibly exceeded our expectations is the starting pitching, which sports a 3.35 ERA through 30 games, and yes, that even included new Yankee, A.J. Cole's stinker against the Braves.

The Nationals can almost field a full team of players on the DL at this point. Not only can they almost field a team, but the team they could field would probably beat the team that the Nationals are currently trotting out there every night. I get that we're working without Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy on a nightly basis. I realize that Matt Grace, Koda Glover, Joaquin Benoit (who was supposed to pitch in Glover's place) and we assume Shawn Kelley all being on the DL weakens our bullpen. Throw Brian Goodwin and Victor Robles on top of those seven and you're left wondering how you're even supposed to beat the Marlins right now. 

That doesn't mean you're allowed to play terrible baseball though. You're all still Major Leaguers and you're expected to play like it. Wilmer Difo, with runners on second and third with one out, why are you throwing home on a lightly hit line drive to third? We were conceding the run. All we asked for was an out. Luckily, the Giants didn't score again that inning, but that's bad baseball. Matt Adams, do you hate gifted RBI's? Was Chris Stratton's 91 MPH heater too much for you? When the Giants make two consecutive awful errors to put runners on second and third with one out in a one run game, you have to cash in. Simply put, it's why the Nationals lost the game. Sure, the two run home run in the bottom of the 6th put the game away, but is there a momentum shift if either Matt Adams or Matt Wieters are able to drive in those two runs in the top of the 6th? We'll never know. The Nationals literally told the Giants "no thank you" to two free runs. It's unacceptable. 

The Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more six times in 2016, with their longest losing streak at seven games. In 2017, the Nationals had losing streaks of three games or more four times, with their longest streak at four games, which happened twice. This season, the Nationals have already had losing streaks of three games or more three times, with their longest losing streak at five games. Dusty Baker is laughing somewhere, as he should be. That's not me saying I wish Dusty were back. That's just giving Dusty credit where credit is due. It's tough to get these guys not to press and to play good baseball when they're losing games and when there are so many injuries, but Dusty was able to do it. So far, Dave Martinez is not. That could change, we'll see in the coming months. 

Everybody can keep saying it's only April 24th. That's fine. Matt Williams agrees. There's always tomorrow. Tomorrow will keep coming until September 30th when the Nationals could be headed home for good. No need for any sense of urgency. Let's just tread water for the next month or so. That sounds like a lot of fun for everybody. We can be 19-25 around May 19 with the Dodgers headed to town. Why not dig a bigger hole and see if we can dig out? That way we have to finish the season on a 71-47 run to put us at 90 wins. Maybe we make the playoffs. Maybe we don't. That's a fantastic plan though because 71-47 runs happen all the time in baseball. Just keep treading boys. Can't wait to see Moises Sierra back out there in the 5 hole tonight.

No Sweep, Says Dave Martinez!

The Washington Nationals had a sweep within reach last night in New York. They headed into the series on Monday 6 games back of the division leading Mets and had a fantastic chance to cut it to 3 games. Apparently, Matt Williams....sorry, I mean Dave Martinez had other plans. With the Nationals leading 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning, Martinez summonsed Ryan Madson from the bullpen following 7 strong innings from Tanner Roark. In any normal instance, that would be the logical move. If the Nationals are winning, they go Kintzler, Madson, Doolittle. We've seen it work successfully many times before.

I said out loud last night in the 3rd inning while watching the game "It's going to be interesting to see what Dave Martinez does tonight if the Nationals are winning this game in the 7th or 8th because Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson are unavailable." Fast forward to the 8th inning and here comes Ryan Madson. The same Ryan Madson who has had two Tommy John surgeries in his career. The same Ryan Madson that Dusty Baker would constantly talk about "monitoring his workload". The same Ryan Madson who had pitched in 3 of the Nationals past 4 games, and once he entered the game last night, in 4 of the last 5. The same Ryan Madson who LEADS Major League Baseball with 11 appearances this season. Ryan Madson was set up to fail by his manager last night and there's no way around that.

We've seen more than our share of bullpen blunders over the past few years, but this one is pretty high up there. It goes:

1) Matt Williams pulling Jordan Zimmermann in a 1-0 game in the top of the 9th inning in Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS;

2) Dave Martinez's decision to bring Ryan Madson into his 4th game in 5 days in a 4-2 game in the bottom of the 8th against the Mets where a chance to cut the Mets division lead to 3 games was at stake; and

3) Pretty much every bullpen decision Matt Williams made in 2015.

So, as you can see, this decision ranks fairly high up there. Now, a lot of people believe that Dave Martinez had no choice but to use Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle this often, this early in the season. In part, I'll agree with that. The Nationals have had 1 off day in 19 games since the start of the season. That's absolutely brutal. By comparison, the Mets have had 3 off days already in 17 games (1 was a weather postponement, so they'll make that up, but the number is still 3 nonetheless). It's a lot easier to manage a bullpen with built in off days, there's absolutely no disputing that. What I will disagree with, is that Dave Martinez had to use these guys because there have been so many close games. Madson was used in 3 consecutive losing efforts to the Mets just a week and a half ago. The first of those 3 was an 8-2 loss. He hadn't pitched in 4 days at that point, so I guess that was just getting him some work. Ok, fine. The Nationals proceed to lose the next 2 games by 1 run and Madson pitched the 8th inning of each of those games to keep it close. My real gripe came Saturday against the Rockies when Madson came in to pitch during a 6-2 game. It's not a save situation, nor is it a hold situation. Nope, it's just a game that since the Nationals were winning Dave decided "well, I guess I better use Madson and Doolittle!" Two guys with a history of arm issues and you use them both in an 8-2 loss and a 6-2 win. 

Last night was one of the worst pieces of managing that I've seen in a long time. Madson was gassed. You could see it within the first two batters. Conforto singles and then after getting ahead of Cespedes, he allows him to single as well. His velocity was there, but his location and the movement on his pitches were not. Shawn Kelley was available last night. Shawn Kelley threw 6 pitches on Monday night and then didn't pitch on Tuesday. Shawn Kelley needed to pitch the 8th inning last night. Doolittle was available for the 9th following a 10 pitch save on Tuesday. Ryan Madson should not and quite frankly can not be throwing 26 pitches last night coming off an outing where he threw 21 the night before. If you're dumb enough to bring him into the game in the first place, which Dave Martinez apparently is, you have to have a quick hook. Once he gave up back to back singles, Shawn Kelley or Sammy Solis need to come into the game. Asdrubal Cabrera, who was coming up with Cespedes on first and Conforto on second, is 1 for 5 with 2 K's against Shawn Kelley in his career. Jay Bruce, who was on deck, is 1 for 3 against Kelley and 0 for 4 against Solis in his career. Todd Frazier, who was due up third, is 0 for 6 with 5 K's against Kelley and 0 for 1 with a K against Solis. These numbers were right in front of you last night. You chose to ignore them. It doesn't matter what their career numbers against Madson are because Madson was gassed and at that point was the equivalent of Jacob Turner last night throwing 96 MPH meatballs. Ryan Madson is a great pitcher who deserved better last night. In fact, the Washington Nationals deserved better. 

I can't stress enough how imperative it is that Dave Martinez not use the bullpen like he's been using it. It will end with Madson and Doolittle on the DL with elbow problems and the rest of the bullpen pitching like it did early in 2017 because there will no longer be any defined roles. If he continues to manage the bullpen like he has been, he will not be here very long. He has a 3 year $2.8 million contract. Dusty Baker made $2 million alone last year with the Nationals. If Martinez isn't getting the job done, the Lerners will not hesitate to eat $2 million and bring somebody else in who can get the job done. 

Last tidbit, Dave Martinez did make one good move last night. That was bringing in AJ Cole to a bases loaded situation to face Cespedes. Pedro Severino called for a fastball low and away, Cole threw a 93 MPH fastball a little below the letters and Cespedes belted it for a grand slam. If that was Martinez telling Mike Rizzo that AJ Cole should not be in the Major Leagues, then I applaud him. There's absolutely no reason that AJ Cole should be on the Nationals flight to Los Angeles. It's time to DFA Cole to get a fresh arm in the bullpen. You can bring Trevor Gott back up, who looked very good in his last 4 outings before being sent down. You can bring up Carlos Torres who is a veteran with a lot of Major League experience and who has some long relief experience as well. Or if you're dead set on having strictly a long reliever, you could bring Edwin Jackson back up. Two things that I know for sure though - AJ Cole is not a Major League caliber pitcher for a team with World Series aspirations and Dusty Baker is in San Francisco smiling as he watches this all unfold.

The Mets

Well, the Nationals failed their mission. I asked them to win 2 of 3 from the Braves (which they accomplished) and split with the Rockies. They proceeded to lose 3 of 4 to the Rockies to wrap up a terrible 3-7 homestand. Simply put, the last time I wrote I said don't panic, but you can officially panic. The Mets improved to 12-2 this weekend, putting the 7-9 Nationals 6 games behind the Mets as they head to New York to begin a 3 game series against the Mets. Get swept and you can start thinking about a Wild Card spot as the best case scenario because the N.L. East will be out of reach. It's going to be tough enough to overcome a 6 game deficit, but to fall 9 games behind a good team at any point in the season, well you can chalk it up.

As of last Monday, the Nationals were hitting fairly well, but not pitching well. Now, they're pitching fairly well (minus the bullpen - sound familiar?), but they aren't hitting. They especially aren't hitting with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). Dating back to the Mets series staring April 5th, the Nats are 8 for 47 with RISP.  On April 5th, against the Mets, the Nationals went 1 for 8 with RISP and lost 8-2, Saturday the 7th, they went 2 for 8 and lost 3-2, finally on Sunday the 8th again against the Mets, they went 4 for 17 and lost 6-5. Thursday, they went 0 for 1 and lost 5-1, Friday they went 1 for 5 and lost 2-1 and today, they went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position ("RISP"). So, to recap, in 6 of their 7 losses since April 5th, the Nats are hitting .170 with RISP. How are you going to win any games like that?

As if that weren't a big enough problem, the Nationals bullpen is 0-4 with a 4.73 ERA so far this season. Not only are they not very good right now, but they're also overworked. Ryan Madson, Matt Grace, Sean Doolittle and Sammy Solis have each appeared in 8 of the 16 games this season, putting them all on pace to appear in 81 games this season. That would set career highs for each pitcher, two of which have a history of elbow issues. One of the toughest things for a rookie manager to do is to learn how to manage a bullpen. Dave Martinez is clearly no exception. We can only hope he will figure it out before one of those four blows their elbow out. Jeremy Hellickson will reportedly start tomorrow night in New York, which will move A.J. Cole to the bullpen. The Nationals haven't carried a long reliever the past couple of seasons, but it appears that will change. A corresponding move hasn't been announced yet, but Trevor Gott seems like he could be the one on his way out, not necessarily based on performance, but because he still has minor league options remaining. If it is Gott, I wouldn't expect him to be down in AAA for long. He pitched well in 4 of his 5 appearances and could be a fresh arm that the Nationals shuttle between Syracuse and D.C. all season, a lot like they did with Matt Grace the past couple of years.

The Nationals have to take 2 of 3 from the Mets this week. Losing 2 of 3 means you stay in panic mode. If you get swept, you can forget about a division title. Let's hope Anthony Rendon is back in the lineup. Let's hope Ryan Zimmerman is moved down the lineup - I don't care what Martinez, Rizzo or Zimmerman say, that Spring Training experiment was a total disaster. Let's hope the starters pitch deep into games. Let's hope the bullpen does its job. Let's hope we hit better with RISP.  Let's hope we play error free and fundamentally sound baseball for the first time this year. Let's sweep the Mets in New York and show them that we're not going to get buried in April.

Well, here's to hoping.

Already Panic Time?

Since opening the season 4-0, it's been ugly. Really ugly. The Nationals came into the season heavily favored to win their 3rd straight National League East title, but now find themselves 3.5 games out of first place and 1 game below .500 following a 3 game sweep at home at the hands of the New York Mets. Early April isn't the time to worry about how far back in the division you are (unless you dig yourself a 10 game hole), but there's still reason to worry. 

This Nationals team is far from healthy at the moment, with a less than 100% Adam Eaton, no Daniel Murphy and no Matt Wieters (although Pedro Severino has looked very good in his place). That's the odd part though, even without those 3 bats not in the lineup, or at less than 100%, the issue hasn't been putting runs on the board. The Nationals are averaging 5 runs per game over their first 9 games. Granted, they averaged 3 runs per game in this last Mets series and they had multiple opportunities to win that game last night (hello 9th inning, bases loaded and one out). Aside from Thursday's game though, each of the next two games were decided by 1 run. The Nationals lead the National League in home runs and are sixth in batting average. It may not seem like it, but they're hitting the ball well, especially for a team that's played 6 of their 9 games in below 50 degree weather and is without one of it's best hitters.

As a complete side note, the Victor Robles watch is officially on. Michael Taylor's 5 for 30 (with 11 strikeouts) start to the season can only continue on for so long. With a chance to walk off the Mets last night, he struck out with the bases loaded and one out against a guy who doesn't strike many batters out. Right now, we're seeing the Michael Taylor of 2015-2016, not the Michael Taylor of 2017. Robles is off to a 5 for 12 start in AAA, he's ready, the question is, where can he play everyday? Taylor's trade value peaked during the offseason coming off his red-hot NLDS against the Cubs, but you have to wonder if the Nats could package Taylor and AJ Cole for a starter (Danny Duffy of the Royals or Sean Manaea of the Athletics - somebody with some team control past this year).

Speaking of pitching, that's where the majority of the problem lies for the Nationals. Specifically, the starting pitching. The last 5 starts from Nationals starting pitchers are - 3 2/3 IP, 10 ER/ 5 IP, 2 ER (5 runs)/ 6 IP, 4 ER/ 5 1/3 IP 1 ER/ 5 IP, 5 ER - so cumulatively over the past 5 games, that's 0 quality starts, 25 innings pitched, 22 earned runs and 25 runs scored. That comes out to a run an inning. Oh, and that 5 1/3 innings with 1 earned run, no, that wasn't Max Scherzer, that was Gio Gonzalez. 

Over in the bullpen, something that is just as worrisome, if not more worrisome, is that Brandon Kintzler apparently forgot how to pitch during the offseason. Kintzler is now 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA in the 4 games he's appeared in. Did Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley switch bodies? Shawn Kelley is looking a lot like his old self while Kintzler is serving up meatballs a lot like Kelley was doing in 2017. If we can get Kintzler back on track and keep Kelley and Sammy Solis throwing the way they are throwing, this has the making of a very good bullpen. If Kintzler can't get back on track, then the starters, who are already off to a rocky start, are going to have a lot more weight on their shoulders. 

Again, this is all a very small sample size that's under a gigantic microscope because it's all we have right now. The Nationals (and most teams) go on a couple of 4-6 ten game stretches per year. This, however, seems like a squandered opportunity. Opening the season against 3 teams that lost 90+ games last year and going 4-5 in that stretch just isn't going to cut it. The schedule gets tougher to end the month, with the Rockies coming to town, then the Nats hit the road to play the Mets, Dodgers and Giants before ending the month back at home against the Diamondbacks. 

It's surely not panic time yet, but you don't want to be 6-7 games behind a red hot Mets team, who's schedule is more than generous the rest of the month, at the beginning of May. So, in a season where most of us expected a cake walk to a division title, it's time to go back to the basics. Baby steps. Let's win the series against Atlanta and at least split with the Rockies this weekend (although, 3 of 4 would be ideal). 

We Made It

We're just days away from Opening Day and it feels so good. After a long winter, it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride. The 2018 Washington Nationals are largely the same team as the 2017 Washington Nationals. That should be good enough for a fifth National League East title in seven years, and the third straight. Should is the key word. The New York Mets could challenge the Nationals if their pitching staff can stay healthy and the Philadelphia Phillies could be a surprise contender, a lot like the 2012 Nationals were. It's going to be a tougher division than it was in 2017 (which isn't saying much), but the Nationals remain the clear favorite.

The Nationals will be without Jayson Werth for the first time since 2011. Werth was a key member in helping turn this franchise around and establishing the winning culture that exists today. Aside from Werth, the Nationals let Matt Albers, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Jose Lobaton, Oliver Perez, Joe Blanton, and of course, Dusty Baker walk in free agency. All were replaceable, though you'd expect Albers departure to hurt the most. Dave Martinez is now the manager tasked with getting this team through to the NLCS, if not further. Interestingly enough, Martinez was a front runner for the Nationals job back in 2014, when the Nationals decided to go with Matt Williams instead. What a fantastic decision that was!

There aren't many glaring weaknesses with this team, but there are definitely big concerns. There are bigger concerns with the Nationals than there are with any of the other five "Super Teams" as many analysts are calling them (the other Super Teams being the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Astros). The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are at catcher and the 5th starter. These are both positions where the Nationals may hypothetically have to improve upon during the season. The hope of course, is that between A.J. Cole and Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals won't have to worry about the 5th starter. That's entirely possible considering the Nationals won 97 games last year with their 5th starters combining to have an ERA north of 5.00. So if the Nationals can have either A.J. Cole or Jeremy Hellickson throw 170-180 innings with an ERA in the mid to high 4's, they're going to be fine. As far as behind the plate, the Nationals are heading into the season with Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero. From everything we've heard, Matt Wieters is in the best shape of his career and is really benefiting from working with new Nationals hitting coach, Kevin Long. Should we expect Wieters to have a career year? Probably not. But he should surely improve upon the .225/.288/.344 slash line he put up last season, all which were career worsts. Montero, the 11 year left-handed hitting veteran will back Wieters up. Montero's bat isn't what it used to be, but he still calls a good game behind the plate and has some pop in his bat. He hit .216 last season between the Cubs and Blue Jays, which isn't great, but considering Jose Lobaton hit .170 last year and has an even bigger noodle arm than Montero, I'll take it.

As essentially anybody with a brain who covers baseball has noted, this is a pivotal season for the Nationals franchise. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, Matt Wieters, Shawn Kelley and most of all, Mike Rizzo will all be free agents after this season. If there was ever a time to go for it all, it's now (and no, that doesn't mean Victor Robles becomes tradable, but just about everybody else does). In terms of the financial impact heading into next offseason, the Nationals have nearly $79 million in payroll coming off the books next year, $72 million of that will come off their “luxury tax payroll”, which they are currently about $7.1 million over, meaning they will pay about $2.13 million in overages. The tax threshold goes up $9 million next year, so the Nationals will really have about $81 million to work with next offseason to stay under the cap, which they will absolutely be aiming to do. The point in saying that is that the Nationals will be able to comfortably get under the luxury tax next year, while also keeping their payroll around the same (if that's the goal). If there is a player out there right now that can help this team win this year, go get them. The financial impact is irrelevant. The team is already over the luxury tax and is going to have to pay 30% on the overages. Adding a stud starting pitcher or another dominant bullpen arm mid-season surely isn't going to push the Lerner's into bankruptcy. Mike Rizzo and the Lerner's only job this season is to make sure this team has the best chance to win come October, Davey Martinez and the players will take care of the rest.

Bonus Predictions:

AL EAST                                                                             NL EAST

New York: 95-67                                                                  Washington: 94-68

Boston: 92-70                                                                       New York: 87-75

Baltimore: 85-77                                                                   Philadelphia: 83-79

Toronto: 80-82                                                                      Atlanta: 75-87

Tampa Bay: 73-89                                                                Miami: 60-102

AL CENTRAL                                                                     NL CENTRAL

Cleveland: 96-66                                                                 Chicago: 96-66

Minnesota: 87-75                                                                 Milwaukee: 86-76

Chicago: 74-88                                                                    St. Louis: 85-77

Kansas City: 72-90                                                              Cincinnati: 74-88

Detroit: 64-98                                                                       Pittsburgh: 63-99

AL WEST                                                                             NL WEST

Houston: 99-63                                                                     Los Angeles: 94-68

Los Angeles: 86-76                                                               Arizona: 90-72

Seattle: 83-79                                                                       Colorado: 86-76

Texas: 76-86                                                                         San Francisco: 77-85

Oakland: 75-87                                                                     San Diego: 75-87

PLAYOFFS:

WILDCARD:

Boston over Minnesota

NY Mets over Arizona

DIVISIONAL SERIES:

Houston over Boston

Cleveland over New York

Washington over LA Dodgers

Chicago Cubs over NY Mets

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:

Houston over Cleveland

Chicago Cubs over Washington

WORLD SERIES:

Houston over Chicago Cubs

Go Get Realmuto

We are 19 days from pitchers and catchers reporting. Guys like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and JD Martinez are still free agents – but the real news is baseball is less than one month away. It’s been a bizarre offseason. Everybody wants to find a way to get below the luxury tax prior to next offseason, so in turn, very few teams want to spend any money. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs are all below the luxury tax and are planning on keeping it that way. The only two teams currently projected to be over the luxury tax are the Nationals and the Red Sox.  

It’s widely known that next offseason projects to be one of the biggest offseason’s in Major League Baseball history. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Daniel Murphy and Clayton Kershaw, among many others, are all expected to hit the market. Money is going to be flying around. But, that leaves the big name free agents of this offseason wondering where all the money is. Chances are, a couple of the big market teams (the Cubs, Phillies – who have a projected payroll of just $84 million, Cardinals, etc.) or maybe even a couple small market teams (based on what we saw last night from the Brewers) will open up the checkbook and sign the big name free agents left on the market, possibly even at a bargain rate. If there are some bargains out there though, expect the Nationals to be involved.

The Nationals are already over the luxury tax and have almost no shot of getting under it. They will be taxed at a rate of 30% on any overage. Right now, their overage is about $4.6 million, meaning they would be taxed a little under $1.4 million. That’s certainly not chump change, but it’s not putting a dent in the Lerner’s pocket either. Between Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, Ryan Madson, and Shawn Kelley, the Nationals clear about $100 million of payroll next offseason. Even if you offer Bryce Harper a $40 million per year contract at the end of the season, you’ve still cleared about $60 million (realistically more like $15-20 million after you go through arbitration and sign other free agents to fill out the roster). Bottom line being - you’ll be under the luxury tax next year.

You’re in an offseason where the big spenders are standing pat for the most part. You are one offseason before your franchise cornerstone hits free agency. If there is one time where the Lerners go for the jugular, it should be now. As of today, the Nationals essentially have their 2017 playoff roster back intact, minus Jayson Werth, but with the addition of Adam Eaton. They’ve resigned Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick to team friendly deals. The only areas that could use a potential boost are catcher, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Could the Nationals coast into the playoffs with Matt Wieters starting 130+ games and a combination of AJ Cole, Edwin Jackson, and Erick Fedde starting 30+ games as the 5th starter? Of course they can. That doesn’t make it ideal, especially once the playoffs roll around.

  

After the Marlins continued their fire sale last night by dealing Christian Yelich to the Brewers, rumors started popping up that the Nationals are the front runners to acquire JT Realmuto. This is a deal that has to get done. It's that simple. Trading within your division can be difficult, but both teams are in completely different places right now and both have incentive to get a deal done. As we know, the Nationals are over the luxury tax as is, and with Realmuto projected to make about $3.2 million in arbitration this season, that would put the Nationals at about $7.8 million over the luxury tax. But what if we could actually reduce how far the Nationals are over the luxury tax with this trade? The Marlins are demanding top prospects in return for Realmuto (as they should). However, right now they want Victor Robles as a headliner, which just isn't going to happen. According to Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post, Mike Rizzo is also refusing to discuss Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, or Juan Soto in any trade (although it's odd to me why Anthony Rendon was even mentioned). Let's say that Rizzo agrees to trade Juan Soto as a headliner in a Realmuto deal. By including Soto, who is the Nationals 2nd best prospect, and a top 50 prospect in MLB, could Rizzo then attach Matt Wieters $10.5 million contract to this deal as a salary dump? Obviously, the Marlins wouldn't take Soto and Wieters for Realmuto, but something like Soto, Wieters, Erick Fedde, and either Raudy Read or Pedro Severino for Realmuto and Junichi Tazawa could work. This gives the Marlins 3 of the Nationals top 10 or so prospects, while the Nationals get a young, talented, controllable catcher and about $1.2 million in salary relief. For comparison, the Marlins just acquired the Brewers top prospect, 5th best, 9th best, and one unranked prospect for 5 years of control of Christian Yelich. Yelich comes with more control and is an overall better hitter than Realmuto, so it should come as no surprise that the Marlins would get less for Realmuto than they would for Yellich. I think the Marlins could be convinced to take Wieters, but only if Tazawa is in the deal, since Tazawa is owed $7 million this year. Tazawa would provide very little to the Nationals, but he is another right handed reliever that could compete for a bullpen spot at the very least. If the Marlins won't bite on taking Wieters back, then maybe Rizzo takes Soto off the table and offers Fedde, Daniel Johnson, and Read or Severino for Realmuto. In that scenario, the Marlins still would receive the Nationals 4th, 7th, and 10th best prospects. 

The Nationals could also just decide to go the free agency route, in which case Alex Avila would be a nice option. He could start 70-80 games, while Wieters starts the other 80-90.  Avila is also a left-handed hitter, and although Matt Wieters is a switch hitter, he hits about .30 points higher as a right-handed batter. Some sort of platoon could be very beneficial. As far as the fifth starter goes, you could look to bring in Jaime Garcia or John Lackey. Both Garcia and Lackey know Nationals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist very well from their time together in St. Louis and neither would be looking for a big commitment as far as years and dollars go. If you're looking for a final bullpen piece, then familiar faces in Matt Albers and Matt Belisle are available and would most likely only require a one year commitment on the cheaper side ($2-3 million). The options are out there, it's just a matter of what kind of money is left in the budget.

On the other hand, if the Nationals decide that they don't need to upgrade anywhere else heading into this season, locking up free agent to be, Mike Rizzo, might not be a bad end to the offseason either.