For those looking for my thoughts on last night's game or how I think the Nationals will do with Werth and Zimmerman back, you'll have to wait until my next post. This post will strictly focus on a move that Mike Rizzo made yesterday that has the potential to throw a wrench into this whole season. I didn't want to write anything last night because I wanted to see if my initial reaction to the trade would change. It didn't. As I write this, I'm still confused, slightly mad, and honestly flabbergasted. Yesterday, the Nationals traded AA pitcher Nick Pivetta, their 10th best prospect, for Phillies' closer, Jonathan Papelbon. There is no doubt that the Nationals bullpen is now deeper, but to say it's better is completely dependent on how Drew Storen takes being the new set up man. There are many different elements that go into why this move doesn't make sense, why it's confusing, and why it could turn out to be one of Rizzo's worst moves as the General Manager of the Nationals.
The first thing makes me mad about this deal is that Mike Rizzo has essentially told Drew Storen "Thanks for the great first half, you have 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA, but I don't trust you, so I'm demoting you." What can this guy do to keep his job? He blows a save in the 2012 NLDS and the Nationals go out and sign Rafael Soriano, which was a disaster. He blows a save in the 2014 NLDS and Rizzo says Storen is still the closer, then mid way through a career year, he brings in what could possibly be Rafael Soriano 2.0. Nothing against Jonathan Papelbon's stats, he's 17 for 17 in saves this year with a 1.59 ERA (yes, actually lower than Storen's). With that being said, he's a 34 year old reliever with diminishing velocity and he's under contract for another year for $11 million. Not to mention, $3 million of that $11 million is deferred. If Mike Rizzo doesn't stop deferring money on these contracts, then by 2020, he's going to have a payroll of $160 million, $80 million of which are players who are either retired or not on the team anymore, but I digress. As Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post pointed out, if the Nats had acquired Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, it still would have been a tough pill for Storen to swallow, but he would have accepted the demotion. Being demoted for Papelbon though isn't going to sit well. The bottom line here is you're left with a pissed off Drew Storen and an aging closer who you have to pay next year.
The second element to this is Mike Rizzo is now costing Drew Storen big time money. The salary difference between set-up guys and closers is huge. Storen doesn't become a free agent until after the 2016 season, so if the Nationals hang on to him, they're essentially reducing his value as much as they can so that he's cheaper in arbitration. When Storen goes into his final arbitration hearing this winter, he'll probably leave earning $7-8 million instead of $11-12 million that he could have been earning had he finished the year closing for the Nationals. That means he stands to lose $4-5 million because he won't be able to add to his save total for the rest of the year.
If I were Drew, I would have gone into Mike Rizzo's office yesterday right after the trade was completed and asked to be traded. This isn't about Storen being selfish, this is about Rizzo not trusting Storen. I don't ever want to work for an employer or boss that doesn't trust me, so why should Storen? This team needs Storen, so it's on Rizzo to smooth things over. Maybe he tells Storen that he's going for it all this year and just ride it out this year and then in the offseason he will trade either Storen or Papelbon. Who knows, but if Storen isn't on board, then the bullpen just got worse, not better.
Lastly, we have the diva factor. There is no arguing with how good and reliable Jonathan Papelbon has been over his career. There are some question marks about Jonathan Papelbon the person. There's no way around the fact that Papelbon has had his issues with the fans and the media. Then there's Papelbon in the clubhouse, which I can honestly say I don't know much about. Based on the fact that Papelbon would only waive his no-trade clause if he becomes the closer though, he sounds like a me-first kind of guy. Hey "Paps", you're getting traded to a contender and they've agreed to pick up your option for next year so how about you shut your mouth and pitch when you're asked to pitch. Mike Rizzo preaches all the time about having good guys in the clubhouse and wanting to build a great clubhouse. From everything I've read, the Nationals have a good clubhouse, so why would you bring a guy like this into it? You've automatically made Drew Storen mad and this move is going to rub a few other guys wrong right off the bat.
Good luck with this one Rizzo, you're going to need it. I wrote two days ago about the Mets making a desperation move to acquire Tyler Clippard, but this move looks just as desperate. The Phillies had been having trouble trying to trade Papelbon since last year. Not only do you give up a top 10 prospect for him, but you guarantee his contract for next year and you make your current closer upset. Again, this has nothing to do with Papelbon the player. He's shown he's reliable. This has to do with Papelbon the person and what you've just done to Drew Storen and the rest of the clubhouse. You could have given up a lesser prospect to acquire Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, plugged him into the set up role (which is his current job where he holds a 2.27 ERA), and avoided any drama. The only way this looks like a good move at the end of the season is if it brings a World Series back to Washington. Any other result is a waste of a prospect and a waste of $11 million next year that could have been used towards trying to resign Jordan Zimmermann.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Monday, July 27, 2015
Trade Deadline Edition
The Nationals are now 4-6 coming out of the All-Star break with a 2 game lead over the New York Mets. The hope is the Nats hover around where they are now until they can get fully healthy. Once they get healthy, hopefully in mid-August, they should be able to blow the Mets away and put the division away by around September 15th-20th. That's fully dependent on if everyone gets and stays healthy though. Not having Anthony Rendon or Denard Span in a playoff series would pretty much end the Nationals season. Those two guys mean that much to the lineup, especially when you're facing aces night in and night out. There's one other person that could end the Nationals season and he's somebody you won't even see on the field.
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
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