Short and Sweet

Last post of the year and it's going to be short and sweet. The Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera yesterday, meaning Ben Zobrist will most likely be moved before the start of Spring Training. In my first post I had said the Nats should go get Zobrist and suggested the Nats offer Jeff Kobernus and Jake Johansen to the Rays. The package is probably going to have to be sweeter than that to pry Zobrist from the Rays now because other teams are in on Zobrist and the Rays can turn this into a bidding war. I would estimate anywhere from 8-12 teams are actually in on Zobrist, the Nationals being one of them.

When there are that many teams in on one player, you obviously have to have the best offer to get the player you want. The Giants want Zobrist just as bad as the Nationals do, although they would want him to play third base and left field. The Giants have been known to offer top prospects for rental players (see Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran), so they may be willing to offer Andrew Susac, who is their 3rd best prospect according to MLB.com and a lesser prospect for Zobrist. If that is in fact the Giants offer, the Nats are going to need to offer one of their better prospects as well as a lesser prospect or two mid-level prospects to get Zobrist. I would offer Brian Goodwin and Jake Johansen for Zobrist. That gives the Rays a potential future center fielder as well as a back end of the rotation stater or set up man. Goodwin doesn't have a spot with the Nationals because Michael Taylor is the future center fielder in Washington and Johansen in expandable because of the amount of minor league pitching the Nats have. According to MLB.com Taylor is the Nats 7th ranked prospect and Johansen in the Nats 15th best prospect. That's two top 15 prospects in the organization for one year of control of Zobrist, That's more than fair. Another option is to give up a top 5 organizational prospect for Zobrist. Giolito is out of the question (although I'm sure he's the first player the Rays would ask for), but you could trade A.J. Cole, Michael Taylor, Eric Fedde, or Joe Ross. Taylor isn't happening because he's the Nats center fielder of the future, Fedde was just drafted, and the Rays passed on the opportunity to acquire Ross from the Padres. That leaves A.J. Cole. That's not happening either, Mike Rizzo and the Nats see a very bright future for Cole. The Nats drafted Cole, traded Cole, and then re-acquired Cole. Other teams have asked about him and been rebuffed. I would be shocked if he were dealt, especially for a rental player.

Goodwin and Johansen for Zobrist. Make it happen. If the Rays want a third prospect or even Danny Espinosa (whom they've previously had interest in), then do it. Zobrist if too good of a player to pass up on just so you can hang on to two or three prospects who may or may not make a difference two or three years down the road.

Mike Rizzo's Offseason Strategy: Be Patient

We're only about two months away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. That in itself is music to the ears, but the Nats still have some work to do. At least we think they do. In the past week though, Mike Rizzo has signed a plethora of players to Minor League contracts, with invitations to Spring Training. 

Three of the signings are particularly notable, those being Heath Bell, Ian Stewart, and Dan Uggla. These signings could mean one of two things. Rizzo is either hoping that one of them can take a spot in the bullpen/second base, or he's just creating depth in the Minors. Knowing Rizzo, he's probably trying for the first option. Stewart is technically a third baseman, but he's played 33 games at second. I'm sure Rizzo isn't planning on moving Anthony Rendon from third back to second, so let's bet that Rizzo signed Stewart as a possible second base option. 

Heath Bell could compete for one of the two open bullpen spots available. He hasn't exactly been reliable though over the past few years. Bell had a 7.27 ERA in Tampa last year before being released. Nats fans had to deal with Rafael Soriano for the second half of last year, who had a 6.48 ERA in the second half of 2014, so they're not too far off from each other. Bell represents a nice buy low option though. If he pitches well in the spring, you get a guy who can pitch the 6th or 7th inning for you. If he doesn't pitch well then you can stash him in the minors or just release him. Best case scenario, Bell makes the team and becomes a consistent 7th inning guy with an ERA in the 2's or low 3's. If Rizzo is looking for buy low options to fill out his bullpen though, I wouldn't mind seeing him bring in either Jesse Crain or a familiar face in Sean Burnett (or both). Both are coming off of injuries, but if you can get either or both for $1 million plus incentives, why not take a chance? Burnett played in Washington from 2009-2012 and in 245 games he had a 2.81 ERA. Plus he's a lefty, what's not to like?

Rizzo may be hoping that he can create a platoon at second base, most likely with Espinosa and Dan Uggla, but that's definitely not his best option. Espinosa clearly hits left handed pitchers better than he hits righties and Uggla over his career has hit righties better than he's hit lefties. They can both hit for power, but strike out a ton. Where can you honestly put either of these guys in your lineup? Both of them strike out in more than 27% of their plate appearances. The average Major Leaguer strikes out about 18-20%. For comparison, Ryan Zimmerman over the course of his career has struck out 19% of the time. So in a huge spot when you just need a guy to make contact and move a runner over, do you really trust Espinosa or Uggla to do that? I don't. 

I get it, the team's payroll is high and these could just be options at second base and they could provide leverage in negotiations with Asdrubal Cabrera or someone else. The bottom line though, is we need somebody who is not only a good defender, but can hit. Espinosa is a great defender and a fantastic player to have on your bench, he tears left handed pitching up and that's a big asset to have coming off the bench. Cabrera over his career has struck out 19% of the time, he can hit .260 for you, and he can hit for power. Why are we waiting around, offer him a contract and let's move on. 

I honestly don't see Uggla or Stewart making the team out of Spring Training (unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond are traded), but I think Stewart has the better shot of the two. He can play third (his natural position), but he can also play first and second base. Uggla doesn't offer that and he's also 35 years old. Sure you have Kevin Frandsen (although he's only under team control for one more year) who can do the same thing, but its always nice to have bench guys who are able to move around the infield for you. The 29 year old Stewart offers versatility and team control through 2017. Team control is something all GM's love. The main thing that is working against Stewart is he is basically the same player as Danny Espinosa except he's not as good of a fielder. Their offensive statistics are essentially the same, Espinosa has hit .228 in 5 Major League seasons, Stewart has hit .229 over 7 Major League Seasons. Espinosa has hit 55 home runs in 504 Major League games, Stewart has hit 61 home runs in 511 Major Leeague games. I don't know that the Nats can carry Espinosa and Stewart on the bench. There's really only one open bench spot with Kevin Frandsen, Danny Espinosa, Jose Lobaton, and Nate McLouth taking the other 4 spots. I would put my money on Tyler Moore taking that last bench spot, leaving no room for Uggla or Stewart. Moore is out of Minor League options and with Ryan Zimmerman taking over first base, they're going to need somebody to be able to handle first when Zim needs an off day or if Zim gets hurt.

On a completely unrelated topic, can we talk about the brilliance of Mike Rizzo? He trades Steven Souza, Jr. and Travis Ott, a single A pitcher taken in the 25th round in 2013 for Joe Ross and Trae Turner. Trae Turner can't officially be named in the trade since MLB rules prevent players from being traded within a year of being drafted. Turner was the Padres first round pick last June, so he will officially come to the Nationals in June of 2015. Turner will probably slot in to be the Nats 3rd best prospect behind the beast himself, Lucas Giolito, and almost Major League ready A.J. Cole. Ross is already ranked as the Nats 5th best prospect, per MLB.com. 

When you really think about what was given up for what the Nationals got, you wonder how Mike Rizzo does it sometimes. Rizzo now has Giolito, Cole, and Ross in the minors, all 3 should be Major League starting pitchers within the next year or two (Cole could be ready by August or September of this year, or earlier if there is an injury). That is so crucial because Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are both free agents at the end of 2015 and Stephen Strasburg can leave after 2017. If the Nats can't extend Zimmermann (which I think they will be able to), Cole, Ross, or Giolito would be able to step right in. 

Rizzo dealt Souza who is Major League ready, but doesn't have a spot with the team, for two prospects are are highly likely to make a huge impact on the team in about 2 years. Don't get me wrong, I think Souza is going to have a nice Major League career. He should be able to hit in the .275 range with 15 homers a year for the Rays. I would love to have a guy like that, but the Nats already have Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span locked into the 3 outfield spots, with Michael Taylor waiting in the wings to take over center in 2016. Getting Trae Turner is the reason this deal was made though. Shortstops are hard to come by, and Rizzo may have stolen his next shortstop from the Padres for a fairly reasonable price. Turner hit .323 through 69 games in his first year in the Minors. He also had 23 steals in 69 games, needless to say, he's quick. Really quick. With Ian Desmond set to become a free agent after 2015, the Nats now have a prospect in line to take over possibly in 2016, but more likely in 2017 (yes, that would mean the Nats would need a stop gap at shortstop for a year) if Desmond doesn't resign.

Rizzo just created some leverage for himself in Zimmermann and Desmond negotiations. Would there be some drop off if Zimmermann and Desmond left next year, absolutely. Nobody can argue that, but Rizzo is not only working to keep this years team competitive, but keep the team competitive for the next 5-10 years. It's a great trade and all Nats fans should be excited to see what Turner and Ross can bring to the team in 2016 or 2017. Now as I said in the previous post, lets go get that second baseman...

Intro, Detwiler, Harper, and Moving Forward

Baseball has always been something I've loved and followed since an early age. It's something I'm very passionate about, so I want to preface the beginning of this blog by saying I know that I have some strong opinions on some of these topics, but that's because I love the sport and I love the Nationals. I want this blog to be for the common baseball fan, without the fancy stats like oWar, dWar, isoSLG, ERA+, and BABIP. Obviously common stats like batting average (BA), earned run average (ERA), and wins above replacement (WAR - I'll explain this one further the first time it's brought up) among others. So without any further explanation and unnecessary banter, lets address a few Nats offseason topics that either have taken place in the past few days or are about to take place in the next few days.

Ross Detwiler

On Friday, the Nationals traded Ross Detwiler to the Texas Rangers for infielder Chris Bostick and relief pitcher Abel De Los Santos. I personally have mixed feelings on the trade. I'll always remember the Game 4 gem Ross pitched in the NLDS to keep the Nationals alive against the Cardinals in 2012. But after seeing him struggle last year with injuries and then this year with the questionable role he was placed in, it was probably best for he and the Nationals to move on. 

Why make the move now though while you're trying to win a World Series? There were a few reasons, first was Ross is a year away from free agency and was going to cost the Nationals between 3 and 4 million this year in arbitration. That money can now be allocated elsewhere (Bryce Harper's new deal). Being that he was a year away from free agency, was going to sign somewhere else at the end of the year, and had an undefined role in the bullpen as is, Mike Rizzo decided to trade him and get a few prospects who may or may not make a difference in a few years. The Nats have a few options in AAA to replace him, so the bullpen should be fine.

In return the Nationals got the middle infield depth that they lacked in the minor leagues. Bostick is a 21 year old middle infielder who can play both 2B and shortstop (although he's better suited for 2B), he hit .251 with 11 home runs in A ball last year. De Los Santos is a 22 year old reliever who had a pretty good season in A ball throwing 51 1/3 innings, striking out 65 to the tune of a 1.92 ERA. 

Bryce Harper

Bryce and the Nationals have been at odds this offseason due to a dispute about whether or not Bryce can opt out of his contract and into arbitration as a Super Two player. Bryce's current contract calls for him to earn $1.5 million next year, but through arbitration Bryce could have earned between $2.5 and 3 million. I think it's ridiculous that the Nationals were even fighting this, but what do I know. You would think that you would want to keep your potential franchise cornerstone happy, even if it means spending a few extra million over the next few years. If you want to keep him here after his contract is over, its going to be very expensive, so why piss him off now. Give him the money and move on. Early this morning, the Nationals and Bryce agreed to a two year contract for $7.5 million to avoid arbitration and hopefully avoid any future contract issues (until it's time to sign him to a new deal). The new contract calls for Bryce to be paid $2.5 million this year (thanks Ross) and $5 million next year.

In a market where Chase Headley just got 4 years for $52 million, having Bryce for 2 years at $7.5 million is a steal. I know it's a different scenario because Headley was a free agent where as Bryce is still on his rookie contract, but the point is, don't upset your so called star player over $2-3 million. Also note, Bryce isn't a free agent in two years, he is under team control through the 2018 season, but come 2016 is when Bryce will start to make big money.

Whats Next

Now it's time for Rizzo to go address the one glaring need this team currently has, second base. There aren't many options out there, whether it be in free agency or trade, but there are a few options that I like. The first option is to resign Asdrubal Cabrera. He's not opposed to coming back and playing second base even though shortstop is his preferred position. The Giants, Angels, and Athletics are three teams who could be in on him, but all come with a few question marks. Nobody knows what kind of money the Athletics have to play with right now after essentially rebuilding on the fly this offseason. The Angels are trying to cut payroll, not add it, so for that reason I think they're out. The Giants have the money and have a need at third base, but I have a feeling they're going to throw a lot of money at either James Shields or Max Scherzer and I'm not sure that they have the money for a pitcher as well as Cabrera. Jed Lowrie, the other second base/shortstop option teams were considering, signed today with the Houston Astros for three years and $23 million. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I offer Cabrera a 3 year, $24 million contract and make it clear there's not much room for negotiating. Cabrera is one year younger and a better hitter in my opinion. Offering one million more than Lowrie got is a fair offer. The Astros aren't going to be competitive, the Nationals are, so as long as winning is a priority to Cabrera, you would think accepting an $8 million per year offer would be a no brainer given the market. If Cabrera thinks he can get a better offer elsewhere, then so be it, the Nats can move onto their trade target.

We can be completely unrealistic and say somebody like Ian Kinsler should be the Nats next second baseman, but as good as he would look in the Nats lineup, that's just not going to happen. The Nats should go after Ben Zobrist though. He's in the last year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays and will earn $7.5 million and it would be the best $7.5 million the Nationals could spend this offseason. Besides the fact that Zobrist is 34 years old, there are not many negatives that can be said about the guy. He can play second base, shortstop, and the outfield. That kind of versatility is incredibly valuable for a team with World Series aspirations. Over the past 6 seasons, Zobrist has a 37.4 WAR. For comparison purposes, over those same 6 seasons, Ryan Zimmerman has a  23.5 WAR. Why would you not go after a guy like this if you can get him at your price?

That's exactly the issue, the Rays don't need to trade Zobrist. With that being said, the Rays would trade Zobrist if they were given a few prospects in return. Offering Jeff Kobernus and Jake Johansen could get a trade done. The Rays would like Kobernus because he's versatile just like Zobrist, is under team control until 2021, and is a cheaper option than Zobrist. Johansen was the Nationals second round pick in 2013, he had a 5.19 ERA in Hagerstown this past year and is ranked as the Nationals #15 prospect according to MLB.com. Johansen's ERA clearly won't blow anyone away, but he's got potential to be a back of the rotation starter or a valuable bullpen piece. For one year of control of Zobrist I think this is a more than fair offer. As for the Nationals, why would you not make this trade? Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Tyler Clippard, and Denard Span are all set to become free agents after this season. It's time to make a splash and go for it, Zobrist would make this Nationals team the most talented Nationals team of the past few years (barring a trade of Zimmermann, Desmond, Fister, etc.).

It's your move Mike Rizzo.