After letting the Adam Eaton trade sink in for a couple days, I've come to terms with the trade and I've actually come to like it. Initially, I, like most Nationals fans, screamed YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. In fact, some Nationals fans may still feel that way, I however, am no longer one of them. The Nationals gave up top prospects, Lucas Giolito (the #3 rated prospect in all of baseball), Reynaldo Lopez (the #38 rated prospect in all of baseball), and Dane Dunning (one of the Nationals 2016 first round picks) for Adam Eaton. If you had asked me last week if I'd trade Lucas Giolito straight up for Adam Eaton, I probably would have said no. Now, I'm coming around on the fact that Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning all got dealt for Eaton.
So what did the Nationals really give up? They gave up a whole lot of potential, and even more uncertainty. Lucas Giolito was supposed to be a staple in the rotation possibly as early as next year. In his six start stint in the Majors last year though, Giolito was extremely underwhelming. Fans and scouts were left wondering where Giolito's 95+ MPH (sometimes touching 99-100) fastball went. Giolito was hitting 92-93 on the radar guns, but never topped out higher than 95 MPH. He had a big sweeping curveball, but he was very hittable. He finished his six game campaign with a 6.75 ERA. Is that reason to give up on your top prospect? No, not at all, but if you're looking to win now, then maybe it is. The Nationals window to win a championship may be closing and there truly isn't time for Giolito to figure it out in the Majors on the fly. Giolito had to be used as a trade chip this offseason before his stock fell even further.
Trading Reynaldo Lopez stung. That one was a tougher pill to swallow than dealing Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez has a fastball that touches triple digits and was even selected to the playoff roster because of the dominant stuff that he possesses. He went 5-3 in eleven Major League outings this year with a 4.91 ERA. The ERA still leaves a lot to be desired, but he's 22 years old. He still has some developing to do and he showed that he has swing and miss stuff. I figured that best case scenario, Lopez would step into the rotation this upcoming year and be the third starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for years to come. Worst case scenario, Lopez could become a dominant reliever with his overpowering fastball and ridiculous curveball. Lopez is by far the best piece the White Sox received in this trade. Dane Dunning is somewhat of an unknown. He could be a back end starter in the Major Leagues, or he could be a solid reliever, depending on how he develops and what the White Sox want from him. The Nationals were developing him as a reliever, which seems to be what he is best suited for.
So what did the Nationals get in Adam Eaton, then? The Nationals got an undercover stud. Wait, scratch that, the Nationals got a cheap undercover stud. Eaton has never made an All Star game, but he probably should have made two of three by now. In his three years with the White Sox, Eaton hit .290, with an on base percentage of .362, averaged 10 home runs per year (although he hit 14 in 2015 and 14 again in 2016), led the American League in triples two of the three years, and stole 16 bags per year. Oh, and the guy who finished third in the National League in triples despite only playing in 73 games, yeah he's going to be hitting either in front of or behind Eaton. What about his defense, you ask? He was statistically the best right fielder in the American League last year. Sure, he's going to be moving back to center field this year, where he played two of his three seasons for the White Sox. In 2015, Eaton had a rough year in center, mainly because of injuries, so the White Sox moved him to right. Eaton is a fully capable center fielder though, he has an above average arm and has great range. Did I mention he's cheap and controllable? He's under contract for another five years for a total of $38.4 million. I'm sure that was music to Ted Lerner's ears after seeing what kind of money has already been thrown around this offseason.
The biggest problem as a result of this trade though has yet to be addressed. The Nationals have now addressed catcher and center field. Those are two of the three positions which needed to be addressed this offseason, but there is still a huge gaping hole at closer and not a whole lot of money to be spent. The Nationals didn't want to pay Mark Melancon $60 plus million to resign, and although it appears they are in the Kenley Jansen sweepstakes, it doesn't seem likely that they will pay $80+ million to sign him. In my prior post, I suggested Melancon might get four years and $50 million, I was way off, which puts the Nationals in a tough spot. The Nationals are already fairly close to topping out their budget and they've traded two of their three top prospects. Trading Danny Espinosa (which seems highly possibly with Eaton on board) would free up about $6 million. So assuming the Nationals have about $10-12 million to work with for the remainder of the offseason, they could go a couple of different directions. The best option at this point is to sign former Royals closer, Greg Holland to a two year $10 million deal with incentives, then turn around and also sign Brad Ziegler to a one year $4 million deal. This leaves the Nationals with some extra cash to resign infielder Stephen Drew for $3-4 million. It also gives the Nationals Greg Holland, who was once a dominant closer for the Kansas City Royals before getting injured, and Brad Ziegler, who is a great reliever and who also has closing experience in the event that Holland flames out.
Rizzo may have made his biggest move of the offseason already, but he still has a lot of work to do before Spring Training begins. The lineup looks just as good, if not better than it was last year with the addition of Eaton, but the back end of the bullpen looks like a dumpster fire.
