Second Half Recipe

The second half will begin on Friday with the Nationals sitting at 48-48, in 3rd place in the National League East and 5.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals need to do better. There is too much talent on this roster for them to be a .500 team through 96 games this season. The next 66 games are a golden opportunity to show the baseball world that they're not quite dead. Unfortunately, the hole they dug in the first half means they probably have to play .630 or better baseball in the second half to make the playoffs, but they've done that numerous times in prior seasons. The goal is reach 90 wins, which would mean a 42-24 second half for the Nationals. The Nationals have played .600 or better baseball in the second half 3 times in the past 6 seasons. In 2012, the Nationals went 49-30 in the second half, in 2014, they went 45-24 and in 2016, they went 45-29. They're going to have to make it 4 of the past 7 to be playing baseball this October.

The Nationals are tied for the 7th easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Phillies check in tied for the 5th easiest and the Braves are tied for the 10th easiest. The Nationals opponent's winning percentage is a combined .492. They have 19 combined games left against the Marlins and Mets. The season could very well come down to how they play in those 19 games. Say you go 15-4 in those 19 games (highly unlikely, but possible), that means you have to go 27-20 in your remaining 47 games. That seems a lot less daunting than going 42-24 over 66 games. Beat the bad teams. It's how the Nationals have won the division the past two years. It's going to be the recipe to do it again this year. They are 21-14 against teams below .500 so far this year. That's a .600 winning percentage. For comparison, the Nationals played .616 baseball against below .500 teams last year. The biggest difference between the two years is that the Nationals played an astounding 120 of their 162 games against teams below .500 last year. That's 74% of their games. So far this year, they've played just 35 of their first 96 games against teams below .500. They have 25 games remaining against teams below .500. There clearly aren't as many games against sub-par opponents as there were last year, which means the opportunity to pounce on those teams looms even larger.

The second part to mounting this comeback is equally as important as beating the bad teams. The Nationals have 18 combined games left against the Phillies and Braves. They get the Braves for a 3 game series straight out of the break. They have a pivotal road trip from September 10-16 where they go to Philadelphia for 3 and then to Atlanta for 3. These 18 games are a golden opportunity to make up ground on the two teams in front of you. The goal has to be win each of those 6 series. If you win all 6 series by winning 2 of 3 games (there are no remaining 4 game series against either of these teams), then you go at least 12-6 against those two teams. There's no doubt that 12-6 is unlikely, as is 15-4 against the below .500 teams, but if you do it, you set yourself up really nicely.

So, the big question is - how do you make this happen? Bryce needs to catch fire, Roark needs to get back on track, Strasburg needs to stay healthy and Zimmerman needs to come back mirroring his 2017 self. Those who may have forgotten, Manny Machado had an extremely average first half last season. Machado hit .230/.296/.445 with a .741 OPS, 18 home runs and 47 RBI. He rebounded to hit .290/.326/.500 with a .826 OPS, 15 home runs and 48 RBI in the second half. Bryce's first half numbers this year, minus batting average, are actually better than Machado's first half last year. There's no reason to think that Bryce can't catch fire and carry this team offensively for a month or more. Strasburg's health and Tanner Roark's consistency are the key to the starting rotation's success in the second half. If Roark comes out and throws one or two duds to start the second half, then you can expect Mike Rizzo to make a deal to bring in a starting pitcher. In the past, the Nationals were fortunate enough to be able to let their starting pitchers "work through" their issues because of their large division leads. This year, they can't afford to have starting pitchers consistently putting them in 3-0 and 4-0 holes after the 2nd or 3rd inning.

The Chicago Cubs went into the All-Star break last year at 43-45 and 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. They went on to finish 92-70 and win the N.L. Central by 6 games. They rode a 49-25 second half into the playoffs. The Nationals can win the N.L. East this year. They need to come back from the break relaxed and ready for a battle with the Phillies and Braves. They need to take at least 2 of 3 against the Braves coming out of the break to set the tone for the second half comeback. They need to be ready to flex their muscles and show the rest of the league they're not dead. On the heels of Bryce Harper's impending free agency, this is either going to be the most exciting second half that Nationals fans have ever seen, or a second half that culminates in one of the most disappointing seasons that Nationals fans have endured since baseball came back to the District in 2005.

July 31st

After 2 straight losses, they're back to .500 at 45-45. They're 3-6 in July. They finished June 9-16. The arrow is pointing down, but these next 6 games before the All-Star break may very well decide whether or not the Nationals are buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Nationals started this "easy" 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets with a 3-2 record. Not good. These are bad teams. They needed an 8-3 stretch here, so that means a 5-1 finish to the first half. Not impossible, but surely not likely based on how the starting rotation is pitching. The starters finished June with a cumulative 3-14 record and a 5.54 ERA. Not to be outdone, they've started July with a 1-4 record and a 7.98 ERA. They're not getting it done. They're not giving the team a chance to win. Tanner Roark is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA over his past 5 starts and Gio Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA over his past 5 starts.

The bats are not completely off the hook, but, they're putting up 5.56 runs per game so far in July, which is coming off a June where we saw them hit .238 and average 4 runs per game. That does take into account the 14 run outburst on Thursday and the 18 run outburst on Saturday, but it's an improvement from June, nonetheless. But, when you're allowing 6.22 runs per game and start every game in a 3-0 hole, you put an already struggling offense in a terrible situation. I'm not sure what the solution is right now. The already taxed bullpen can't catch a break because the starters can't get through the 4th inning. A bullpen with no clear long reliever can only take so much abuse before it falters. For now, it would be reasonable to expect Jefry Rodriguez get sent back down so the Nationals can call a fresh arm up, most likely Sammy Solis, Wander Suero or Trevor Gott. On Saturday, the Nationals will need a 5th starter again, which will most likely be Austin Voth. We can only hope we've seen the last of Jefry Rodriguez for the year. If we haven't, it means this team is in big trouble.

At 45-45, the Nationals are 5.5 games out of first place and 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Unless they fall 9 or 10 games back, the Nationals aren't going to sell at the deadline. Even then, they still might not sell. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it's been how this team operates ever since they made the playoffs in 2012. In 2013, when they were 11 games out with a 52-56 record at the end of July and they didn't sell.

Aside from winning games, the Nationals need to do something they haven't done at the trade deadline since they've become buyers. They need to acquire a starting pitcher. Some of the names that have been tossed around are J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi. All of those are rental players, but two other rental players that nobody seems to be talking about are Garrett Richards and Lance Lynn. The Angels are currently 11 games out of a playoff spot and the Twins are 8.5 games out. Both are going to be sellers. If Garrett Richards becomes available, he probably will be the most sought after starting pitcher on the market. Although he has a history of injuries, Richards owns a 3.52 career ERA and a 5-4 record through 15 starts this year with a 3.42 ERA. Lynn on the other hand, has a 6-7 record through 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA. The 5.21 ERA leaves a lot to be desired, but Lynn has given the Twins quality starts in 7 of his past 12 starts and aside from his July 1st start against the Cubs, he hasn't given up more than 4 earned runs in a start since April. Lynn could definitely benefit from a switch back to the National League. The other positive with Lynn is that he most likely wouldn't cost too much. The Twins still owe Lynn a little over $5 million, so if the Nationals assume most or all of that salary, the Twins will most likely take a mid-level prospect in return. Lance Lynn for Brigham Hill, who was the Nationals 5th round pick in 2017 and 18th best prospect, could be enough to get a deal done. Acquiring Richards would probably require a top 10 prospect, along with a lesser prospect. That price could prove to be too high, especially if the team is still floundering towards the end of July.

First thing's first - play well, finish 5-1 and head into the break at 50-46. It won't be enough to take over first place or take over a wild card spot, but it'll be enough to stay in the hunt, especially with a pivotal 3 game series with the Braves coming right out of the break. Pitch well, put some runs on the board and finish the first half strong.

Dead in the Water

The Nationals finished May with a 32-23 record, which was good for 1/2 game out of first place. Since then, they've gone 10-17, they're 6-15 over their past 21 games, with their lone series win being against the Orioles. They now sit 2 games above .500, 6 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. It's a similar position to the one that the 2013 Nationals were in. Those Nationals were 42-40, 6 games behind the Braves and 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card position. Those Nationals had a 10-16 July, where they finished 52-56, 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games behind the Braves.

Interestingly, the 2013 Nationals and 2018 Nationals have a lot in common. Not a whole lot of hitting, but very solid pitching. The 2013 Nationals averaged 4.05 runs per game, hit .251 and had an OPS of .710. The 2018 Nationals average 4.24 runs per game, hit .239 with an OPS of .715. The pitching was just as close, with the 2013 Nationals having a staff ERA of 3.59 and the 2018 Nationals sitting at 3.67. The 2013 Nationals finished with a 86-76 record. They finished 11 games behind the Braves and 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. The way the 2018 Nationals look right now, they'd be lucky to win 86 games. 

You can only harp on the same things so many times, last year it was the bullpen, this year it's the bats. The Nationals top hitter with runners in scoring position so far this season? That would be Max Scherzer who is 5 for 12, good for a .412 batting average. Andrew Stevenson is second, going 5 for 13. Matt Adams is third, hitting .357, going 15 for 42 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals have gone 4-11 without Matt Adams. They're averaging 3.93 runs per game in his absence, and yes, that includes a 17 run outburst on Friday night. Bryce Harper is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, while Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto are both hitting .259. Those numbers aren't horrible, but they surely aren't good. None of your middle of the order bats are hitting over .260 with runners in scoring position. If you want some good comparables, Freddie Freeman is hitting .389 with runners in scoring position, Jose Altuve is at .379, Nolan Arenado is at .354. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have star potential, but they're hitting over .100 points lower than some of the top players in the league with runners in scoring position. Hitting .300+ with runners in scoring position is your only way to drive in 100+ runs in this league. It's tough to win when you rely so heavily on the long ball, hence the 9-16 June record. The Nationals hit 20 home runs in June, which was good for 25th in the Majors. Of those 20 home runs in June, 7 of them were hit on Friday night. 

So, what do you do now? I don't know. Continue breaking the season down into little pieces. You're in the middle of a tougher stretch here with 4 against the Phillies and now 3 against the Red Sox. You're 1-3 so far, so you're probably looking at a 2-5 stretch now. Win 1 against the Red Sox and you're 43-42 headed into an 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets to end the first half. The only acceptable way to finish the first half against those 3 would be by going at least 8-3, hopefully better. At 51-45, you at least give yourself a chance in the second half. Anything worse and you may have put yourself in a hole that you can't dig out of.