We're about three weeks away from Spring Training and it's looking like the Nationals roster overhaul is complete (barring a surprise signing/trade). The Nationals have caught a lot of flak this offseason for numerous reasons and much of it is unwarranted. We started the offseason with the Bud Black...wait...I mean Dusty Baker managerial hire. The harsh criticism the Nationals received for the way they handled hiring a manager was well warranted. The rest of the criticism for failing to sign the big name free agents that they've been involved in...well that's debatable.
The Nationals have negotiated with some of the biggest names in free agency this year. The Nationals have also signed none of those players. They had competitive (if not the highest) offers on the table for Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, and Darren O'Day. The fact that they were able to sign none of these players despite having very attractive offers on the table has led to many questioning whether or not the Nationals clubhouse is "toxic". Don't get me wrong, some of these guys may be worried about getting choked out if they go 0 for 4 one day, but that's absolutely not the reason the Nationals were unable to reel any of these players in. Darren O'Day would have had no problem joining the Nationals, but O'Day wanted a four year contract. The Nationals weren't going to offer that, but the Orioles were. Despite offering more money in average annual value, O'Day locked up $6 million extra by securing that extra year from the Orioles. As far as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes are concerned, the Nationals were reportedly offering the most money to both. However, the Nationals wanted to defer a lot of that money, much like they did with Max Scherzer. When you take the deferrals into consideration, the present day value of both contracts ended up being close to what Heyward signed with the Cubs and what Cespedes signed with the Mets. Not to mention, Cespedes secured an opt-out after the first season with the Mets, the Nationals offered an opt-out after year two. Cespedes also would have been absolutely nuts to turn down $27.5 million this season with the chance to hit free agency next year in a very weak free agent class. The problem here isn't the Nationals clubhouse, it's the way that the contract offers are structured. Some players are fine with the deferrals, but others aren't. Maybe Heyward and Cespedes were two players who wanted nothing to do with deferrals. While on the topic of deferrals, it may be a blessing in disguise that Heyward and Cespedes didn't sign. Don't forget, Rafael Soriano's contract back in 2013 contained deferrals as well. Starting in 2018, Soriano is owed $2 million per season through 2024. What a steal, right? Then you have Scherzer's contract which has deferrals totaling $105 million which will kick in starting in 2022 paying him $15 million per year through 2028. In 2024, the Nationals will be paying Max Scherzer and Rafael Soriano $17 million and they will both most likely be retired. If you want to find a way to screw up your budget down the line, this is a great way to do it. Adding in more deferred money from Heyward or Cespedes would have been a nightmare.
Although many have chosen to look at only the negatives to this offseason, there have been a good amount of positives. On December 24th, the Nationals signed Daniel Murphy to a three year $37.5 million deal. They followed that up by signing Stephen Drew to a one year $3 million deal. The Nationals also completely overhauled their bullpen, which included signing Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Shawn Kelley, while trading for Trevor Gott and trading Drew Storen to Toronto. The Drew Storen trade to Toronto may end up being the Nationals best move of the offseason. In return for Storen, the Nationals got Ben Revere, who may not be one of the most defensively gifted center fielders, but he's going to be a great lead off hitter and he's going to steal a lot of bases for you.
The Nationals offense sputtered last season at times without Denard Span at the top. Unless Mike Rizzo wanted a repeat of last year, one of the things he had to do this offseason was get a lead off hitter, and he did just that. Ben Revere is a career .295 hitter over 6 seasons in the majors. Revere is actually Denard Span's former teammate with the Minnesota Twins. They were both traded after the 2012 season, with Span coming to Washington and Revere going to Philadelphia. Revere comes with two years of team control (compared to Storen's one) and he will make about $2 million less than Storen (although the Nationals sent money to Toronto to offset the salaries). Revere brings tons of speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Over the course of about 2,500 at bats, Revere has struck out about 9.9% of the time. To put that in perspective, Denard Span, who I think Nationals fans would agree, rarely struck out, has struck out 12.8% of his at bats. The Nationals are getting a guy who puts the ball in play at an even higher clip than Span, and that's pretty impressive. Between Revere and Murphy, the Nationals just got a lot harder to strike out. That's huge because of the dominant arms they're going to be facing 19 times against the Mets next season. If you can't put the ball in play, nothing good can happen.
For those of you that are still upset about not being able to land Heyward, Zobrist, or Cespedes, please just remember one thing. The 2018-2019 free agent class, which is just three years away, is going to be the greatest of all time. Yes, the Nationals have some deferred money on the books, but luckily, as of today, the Nationals only have two players under contract following the 2018 season (that does not include arbitration eligible players such as Anthony Rendon, Michael Taylor, etc.). Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey, among others are all slated to become free agents in the 2018-2019 offseason. Of course the Nationals want to keep Harper, but it's probably going to take a $400-500 million commitment to make it happen. What's even more scary? The Nationals won't be the only team ready to make that commitment. The Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, and Phillies (yes, the Phillies) among others, all have substantial money coming off the books and will be right there with the Nationals ready to throw money at all of these players, with Harper being the main prize. The point is, the Nationals have to be cognizant of that and that may be the reason they were bargain shopping and not going all in this offseason. Jason Heyward was an exception and it was widely speculated that he would receive an opt-out clause to make him a free agent again prior to 2018-2019, which he did. If you're the Nationals, you want to commit to short term deals. Nothing above three years, which is exactly what they've been able to do this offseason.
Are the Nationals the favorites in the NL East? No, especially not after the Mets landed Cespedes for at least another year. Being the favorite means nothing though. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East last year, but injuries happen and players can under perform. The Nationals are in great position to challenge the Mets for the NL East title. The lineup and the bullpen have both been revamped. Don't forget, the Nationals have two weapons sitting in the minor leagues in Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. These two guys are ready to contribute this year. Turner helps make the lineup even longer and Giolito can slide in between Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez to make the rotation down right scary. If the Nationals want to take back the East, they have to do one thing that the Mets did better than them last year. They have to beat bad teams and they have to beat them a lot. The Mets went 60-30 against National League teams under .500, the Nationals went 53-37 against those same teams. That right there is a seven game difference. The Mets won the NL East by exactly 7 games. Sure the Nationals going 8-11 against the Mets contributes to that as well, I'm not arguing that. If you want a chance at the playoffs though, you have to beat up on the bad teams at an extremely high clip. The Nationals will have 57 games against teams who are rebuilding or not expected to compete next year (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Colorado). That's over 1/3 of the season. You have to win about 70% of those games if you want to consider yourself a contender. The Nationals have the talent to beat those teams 70% of the time, if not higher. If the Nationals can stay healthy and beat the bad teams, this is going to be a fun season and an even more fun battle for the NL East crown.
