It's a question that every Nationals fan has asked themselves. It's a question that Mike Rizzo, Ted Lerner and Mark Lerner have asked themselves. Everybody knew this offseason was coming, but for so many years, it felt like it was so far away. But it's here. Decision day is looming, even if a final decision hasn't yet been made. What do you do?
There is no easy answer. Quite frankly, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. Yes, this is all about Bryce Harper. The tantalizing talent, that despite his struggles in the first half of this season, turned in his first 100+ RBI season, to go along with 34 bombs. The 26 year old superstar that has been on the cover of every Nationals article written since he broke into the Major Leagues in 2012.
The Nationals will clear nearly $69 million in payroll this offseason. As Chelsea Janes points out, that number will more closely resemble about $30 million or so once you take into consideration the raises players like Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Tanner Roark will get in arbitration this offseason. Here's the thing though - when you look at the Nationals payroll, it's difficult to calculate. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both have sky-high payroll figures for the 2019 season, $37.4 million and $38.333 million, respectively. That's $75.733 million between two starting pitchers. The Nationals will not, however, be paying Scherzer or Strasburg anywhere near those figures. In fact, if you look at Scherzer's contract, you'll see that he's due to make $35 million in base salary per season in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but every penny of that $105 million is deferred money, payable in 7 installments of $15 million each, starting in 2022, when his contract with the Nationals ends. Strasburg's deal is similar. He's due $35 million in base salary in 2019, but $30 million is deferred. Scherzer and Strasburg will each receive part of their signing bonus this year as salary. As it goes with the rest of the Nationals payroll, the actual amount that each of them will receive next year is not exactly clear. But let's say for instance, Scherzer receives $15 million total this year, instead of the listed $37.4, and Strasburg also receives $15 million (I pick those numbers because it seems based on the deferrals and length of deferrals, that is the actual amount that Scherzer and Strasburg receive each season, excluding incentives). If you've got $30 million instead of $75.733 million in real money invested in those two next season, then you really have an extra $45.733 on top of that $30 million that cleared the books from players no longer on the team. That's $75.733 million, even after the arbitration eligible players are paid.
The thing is - the Nationals still have glaring needs. They need a catcher, they need a second baseman, they need another starting pitcher and shockingly, they need to revamp their bullpen. That $75.733 million doesn't seem like such a large sum anymore, especially if you have hopes of resigning Bryce Harper.
The Nationals don't need Bryce Harper, just like Bryce Harper doesn't necessarily need the Nationals. But unlike their neighbors to the north, who have the money, but still decided to let the face of the franchise go without even so much as making a legitimate offer, the Nationals want to bring Bryce back. From the sounds of it, Bryce wants to come back. Again, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. The Nationals are set to deploy an outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton next season. Not one executive in the Majors would look at that and blame the Nationals if they just bowed out and said they were ready to move on from Bryce. In fact, some would say that's what the Nationals should do. Why wouldn't you want to deploy and outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Bryce Harper, though? Nothing against Adam Eaton, who is a fantastic player, but he's not Bryce Harper. So, here's where it gets tricky.
If you thought that Max Scherzer's contract was confusing, wait until you see what Bryce Harper's is going to look like. There are going to be multiple opt outs, and if it's with the Nationals, there will absolutely be deferrals. Either way, you've got to figure that Bryce and Scott Boras will be looking to sign the richest contract, both in overall value and in average annual value, in the history of the game. So, if that's the case, the highest salary next year belongs to Mike Trout, who will earn a little over $34 million. You'd imagine Bryce would be targeting a $35 million average, which will probably be a little steep, even on the open market. A possible workaround though, could be a 12-year $330 million deal. That would edge Giancarlo Stanton's $325 million deal, but the average annual value would fall short of the $35 million mark, coming in at $27.5 million. Assuming there are a couple of opt-out opportunities in the contract, the Nationals could structure it in a way favorable to both the team and to Bryce. If you front load the contract and offer $105 million due in the first 3 years of the deal, Bryce would earn $35 million in each of those three years. That would beat Trout's average annual value. Bryce would then have the opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 9 years and $225 million of the contract and hit free agency again at 29 years old. If Bryce were to opt out and hit free agency at 29, the Nationals would likely bow out. The team would be off the hook for the remaining $225 million and wouldn't have to worry about how Bryce would age over the next 10 years as the contract goes on (see Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera).
The trickle down effect of Bryce resigning will be felt in a couple different areas though. Adam Eaton will most likely be on his way out of town if Bryce resigns. Although, there is an interesting scenario where the Nationals hang onto Eaton and let Soto platoon with Zimmerman at first base. No, that's not saying Soto won't play everyday - he will. He would be the primary left fielder, but would play first in a similar role to how Matt Adams and Adam Lind played first the past two years. That allows Soto to play everyday and Eaton to still log somewhere between 350-400 at bats next season. It may not make sense to keep Eaton for $8.4 million, but if he's on the roster along with Bryce next season, it's because either Soto or Bryce are going to play some first base. If Eaton is dealt, the Nationals save that $8.4 million, pick up a couple good prospects in return and then can potentially reallocate that money elsewhere, which is huge because of the need in the rotation and the bullpen. The other player that will feel a trickle down effect of Bryce's extension is Anthony Rendon. Rendon is poised to become a free agent following the 2019 season. With Bryce and his big fat contract back in the fold, there is most likely not enough money left to pay Rendon next year. If Bryce walks, the Nationals will likely immediately pivot to locking Rendon up this offseason. Although Rendon is represented by Scott Boras, who likes his players to the open market, Rendon has already made it clear he's willing to discuss an extension. A Rendon extension would surely be a fraction of the cost of a Harper extension (think 7 years $160 million-ish).
If you were looking at starting the offseason with somewhere near $75.733 million to spend, you're looking at $40.733 million after a possible Bryce extension. That feels light when the Nationals are going to have to address other needs. If you trade Eaton, you're possibly looking at around $49.133 million, and that's only if the Lerners are willing to match last year's payroll. Either way, it's not an exorbitant amount of money to spend when you take into consideration what the starting pitching and relief market normally commands. We'll dive into what the Nationals can do to improve their other needs this offseason at a later time, but for now, it's decision time for the Nationals and unfortunately, there's no clear way to go and it may very well come down to who to keep: Bryce Harper vs. Anthony Rendon.
