The Winter Meetings are officially concluding today in Nashville and the Nationals still have a ton of work to do. If you had told me (or Mike Rizzo for that matter) that the Nationals would leave the Winter Meetings with Yusmeiro Petit as their prize free agent signing, I wouldn't have been too happy. Only walking away with Petit is not for lack of effort, though. The Nationals were one of the finalists to land a personal favorite of mine, Ben Zobrist. In fact, reports have said that the Nationals made the highest contract offer to Zobrist, but in the end, Zobrist wanted to be reunited with his former manager, Joe Maddon. After swinging and missing on Zobrist and Darren O'Day (don't even get me started), Mike Rizzo is still left with some big question marks, both in the bullpen and in the lineup.
Actually, I can't help myself on the Darren O'Day thing. Peter Angelos is a complete tool and probably the worst owner in baseball. He's got money he hasn't even folded yet from this MASN deal, yet he makes sure the Orioles operate like a small market team. He sees the Nationals have interest in one of his free agents and lo and behold, there's Pete swooping in at the last minute to make sure the Nationals don't get a deal done. He offers Chris Davis a contract for a day, then takes it off the table. It reminds me a lot of his contract offer to Mark Teixeira in 2008. The Orioles offered Teixeira 7 years and $150 million. That offer was immediately shot down by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, and Teixeira ended up signing an 8 year $180 million contract with the Yankees. Angelos likes to put on a show for Orioles fans, he likes to tease them a little bit. He makes an offer to a big name player, an offer that he knows isn't market value, then tells fans that he tried. Well, I guess he did try, just not very hard. I truly don't care about the Orioles, it doesn't matter to me whether they win 100 games or win 60 games, but for the sake of Orioles fans around the country, Angelos has got to go.
The Nationals have already made three additions to a bullpen that needed a major overhaul this offseason. Last week, the Nationals signed Oliver Perez to a two year, seven million dollar deal. Perez is a nice lefty to have come out of the bullpen and over the past three seasons, he's struck out over ten batters per nine innings. Another reliever, Shawn Kelley, who the Nationals have reportedly signed to a one year deal, also has struck out over ten batters per nine innings over the past three seasons. Those are impressive numbers and ones that will definitely help the Nationals bullpen, but it still doesn't answer the biggest question. Who is going to set up and who is going to close games? Rizzo insists that he's more than happy to go into next season with Storen setting up and Papelbon closing, but how are you seriously going to welcome Papelbon back after last year? On top of that, Drew Storen has no interest in being here anymore, and I don't blame him. He puts together a dominant first half as the closer and then gets replaced at the trade deadline by a psychopath.
I'm obviously a fan of making up my own deals that I'd like to see happen, but that have a very slim chance of happening. About a month ago, I thought to myself signing Mike Leake would be a good move for the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg is a year away from free agency, and Leake will come somewhat cheap, while eating up some innings for you. I'm still not opposed to signing Leake, but there are a few other directions in which the Nationals could go. Here 's the dream scenario:
1.) The Nationals sign Jason Heyward for 9 years and $190 million with a player opt-out clause after 4 years. The contract is essentially a 4 year $96 million deal (average annual value of $24 million for Heyward) and would allow him to hit free agency again when he turns 30 years old. The Nats in turn get a left handed lead off hitter that plays excellent defense, while not tying up too much money when it's time to offer Bryce $400 million and 30% ownership in the team (keep in mind, Werth's contract is up in two years too), but that's besides the point. This also allows the Nationals to make their next move...
2.) The Nationals trade Michael A. Taylor and Drew Storen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi and Jake McGee. I have no clue why the Rays would make this trade, but Mike Rizzo has been known to surprise before, so let's just imagine that he does. Now the Nationals have freed up the $8.5 million that Storen would be making this upcoming season while acquiring a player who is in his second year of arbitration (McGee, who will probably bring home about $4.5 million) and for a starting pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Now the Nationals have a dominant set up man or closer, whichever spot you'd prefer to use McGee in. McGee has a 2.77 career ERA and has struck out 319 batters in 259 2/3 innings. Getting Odorizzi is a big piece to this though because Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after next season, so Odorizzi provides some insurance should Stras leave. Side note, there's no reason why Strasburg wouldn't leave. Next year's starting pitching market is one of the worst of all time. Stras should have no problem getting $200+ million, but it won't be from the Nationals. The Nationals may consider even trading him this offseason, but only if somebody is willing to give up major league ready pitching for him. Speaking of major league ready pitching, may the Nationals will trade some of it to.....
3.) The Nationals trade AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo to the Cincinnati Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Yeah, I'm going to get some backlash on this one....but I already know that. Here's the deal, the Nats need a bullpen makeover and there are no relievers in free agency that can close games. The only ones available via trade are Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller at this point. Andrew Miller would probably cost the Nationals Strasburg, so why not dangle two top 10 prospects in front of the Reds and see if they take it? Chapman's price is surely ten times lower than it was on Monday morning, so this offer may get the job done. Dusty Baker managed Chapman with the Reds a few years ago, so maybe Dusty can help get this guy's life on track. Trading for Chapman doesn't make what he did ok. Hell, the guy may even be suspended by Major League Baseball for half the year or end up in jail for a period of time and this deal turns out to be a bust. Your other option right now though is Jonathan Papelbon and he isn't exactly a Saint, either.
In the end, the Nationals are spending an additional $24.5 million next year (if you include shedding Yunel Escobar's contract) for Jason Heyward and a dominant bullpen. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the Nationals will also most likely trade Jonathan Papelbon. The problem is, they are most likely going to have to eat most of his $11 million contract for next year, so I'm not going to include any money saved on him for now. Here's how the lineup, rotation, and bullpen could look in this scenario:
Lineup:
1.) Jason Heyward, CF
2.) Jayson Werth, RF
3.) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4.) Bryce Harper, LF
5.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6.) Wilson Ramos, C
7.) Danny Espinosa, 2B
8.) Trea Turner, SS
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Rotation:
1.) Max Scherzer
2.) Stephen Strasburg
3.) Jake Odorizzi
4.) Gio Gonzalez
5.) Tanner Roark/Joe Ross
Bullpen:
1.) Yusmeiro Petit
2.) Felipe Rivero
3.) Shawn Kelley
4.) Oliver Perez
5.) Trevor Gott
6.) Jake McGee
7.) Aroldis Chapman, Closer
Yes, you're seeing that right, there is one returning player coming back to the Nationals bullpen. After what we had to go through last year, that's exactly how it should be. The lineup may not be as impressive as it has in years past, but putting Heyward up top and having Turner's speed at the bottom will definitely help the Nationals score some runs. The rotation is as good as usual and if you can get games to the eighth inning with a lead, I'd take my chances with McGee and Chapman against any team.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Wait, What?
Is this real life? Or is this a bad dream where the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation? Well, I can tell you that yes, it is real life, and yes, the Lerners are doing their best Dan Snyder impersonation. The Lerner family, clearly upset about the outcome of last season, saw this as an opportunity to take some control and stick it to Mike Rizzo, and that's exactly what they did. That leaves us where we are this morning, with Dusty Baker, not Bud Black, as the new manager of the Washington Nationals.
I want to make this abundantly clear before I go any further, I like Dusty Baker, his track record speaks for itself. He gets a bad rap for his handling of a pitching staff, but I'm not sold on that. People will point to his "over usage" of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. The most notable example is Mark Prior. The problem with this argument is that Prior threw 167 2/3 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2002. Baker upped his innings total in 2003 to 234 1/3 including the playoffs in 2003, a difference of almost 67 innings. Sure, that's a big increase in innings, but wait a minute, didn't Terry Collins just do something similar with not just one Mets pitcher, but two? Noah Syndergaard entered the 2015 season having pitched 133 innings (which he did in 2014), or less, in every season of his career. This season Syndergaard pitched 198 2/3 innings including the playoffs, which is a difference of almost 66 innings. Matt Harvey, coming off of Tommy John surgery just pitched 215 2/3 innings this year including the postseason. Not only is that a career high for Harvey, but he's also setting that career high after coming off of major surgery. The point is, lets not jump on Baker for ruining the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Kerry Wood had injury issues before Baker even arrived in Chicago. As for Prior, has anyone ever thought that maybe the guy is just injury prone?
With that being said, if there is one thing that turns me off about hiring Dusty Baker, it's that he believes walks just clog up the bases. As I wrote yesterday, the Nats need to be more like the Royals to dethrone the Mets and to advance in the playoffs. Being more like the Royals means putting the ball in play more and getting more people on base. I don't care if that means via walk, hit, hit by pitch, it doesn't matter. Dusty Baker is an old-school manager though, he likes power, he likes home runs. Fortunately for him, the Nationals can hit a good amount of those. Unfortunately for Nationals fans, the Nationals will most likely finish top three in the Majors in strikeouts because there will not be a change in philosophy. I know Baker wins, but the Mets pitching staff is dominant. If you don't care about on base percentage and walks, you aren't going to beat them.
As for the Lerner family and Mike Rizzo - they should all be ashamed of themselves and completely embarrassed. My initial reaction late last night/early this morning was that this all falls on Rizzo and he should immediately be fired. That won't happen though and as more details come out, that probably shouldn't happen. However, Mike Rizzo is still to blame for this. Following the 2014 season, Rizzo picked up Matt Williams option for the 2016 season. Well, Matt Williams isn't here anymore, but the Lerner family is still on the hook to pay him $1 million for the 2016 season. That $1 million could have been the difference in being able to sign Bud Black and not being able to sign Bud Black, we may never know. It's also Mike Rizzo's job to tell the Lerners that if you want to get "your guy" to be the next manager, you may have to agree to their terms, not your own. For owners that have no problem agreeing to Scott Boras's terms every offseason, I didn't know this would be that big of a pill to swallow. This may not have been about Bud Black though, this may have been all about Dusty Baker and the Lerner family.
It was reported a few days ago that the Lerner family was thoroughly impressed with Dusty Baker and that they actually preferred him to Bud Black. However, Mike Rizzo and a few other front office personnel preferred Black to Baker, so the Nationals went with Black. The Lerner family seems to be of the thought that it doesn't matter who manages the team though, all that matters is that they're shelling out the money to put a contender on the field. That doesn't make too much sense though from a baseball standpoint or a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure Ted Lerner had his best employees working on the development of Tysons Corner, so wouldn't you want the best guy for the job handling one of your biggest investments, the Washington Nationals? From the outside looking in, it seems that Ted Lerner was going to do anything possible to save a few bucks on this managerial hire because he knows he's paying Matt Williams and most likely Jonathan Papelbon next year even though neither will be with the club. A one year offer with multiple team options is insulting to a manager with as much experience as Bud Black. Dusty Baker seemed to be fine with a two year offer with multiple club options, but that's because he wants to get back into managing. Bud Black stood his ground and honestly, with the experience he has, Dusty could have too. The Nationals are on their fourth manager in five years. It's not because the team has failed to meet expectations (except for this year), but it's more so because the Lerners will not commit to one person past two years. It's called Dan Snyder syndrome and it's hard to treat. The Lerner family, with the help of Mike Rizzo, just started the Washington Nationals 2016 offseason in the most embarrassing way possible. It's left fans frustrated, the rest of Major League Baseball scratching their heads, and the Nationals public relations staff with a huge mess.
I want to make this abundantly clear before I go any further, I like Dusty Baker, his track record speaks for itself. He gets a bad rap for his handling of a pitching staff, but I'm not sold on that. People will point to his "over usage" of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. The most notable example is Mark Prior. The problem with this argument is that Prior threw 167 2/3 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2002. Baker upped his innings total in 2003 to 234 1/3 including the playoffs in 2003, a difference of almost 67 innings. Sure, that's a big increase in innings, but wait a minute, didn't Terry Collins just do something similar with not just one Mets pitcher, but two? Noah Syndergaard entered the 2015 season having pitched 133 innings (which he did in 2014), or less, in every season of his career. This season Syndergaard pitched 198 2/3 innings including the playoffs, which is a difference of almost 66 innings. Matt Harvey, coming off of Tommy John surgery just pitched 215 2/3 innings this year including the postseason. Not only is that a career high for Harvey, but he's also setting that career high after coming off of major surgery. The point is, lets not jump on Baker for ruining the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Kerry Wood had injury issues before Baker even arrived in Chicago. As for Prior, has anyone ever thought that maybe the guy is just injury prone?
With that being said, if there is one thing that turns me off about hiring Dusty Baker, it's that he believes walks just clog up the bases. As I wrote yesterday, the Nats need to be more like the Royals to dethrone the Mets and to advance in the playoffs. Being more like the Royals means putting the ball in play more and getting more people on base. I don't care if that means via walk, hit, hit by pitch, it doesn't matter. Dusty Baker is an old-school manager though, he likes power, he likes home runs. Fortunately for him, the Nationals can hit a good amount of those. Unfortunately for Nationals fans, the Nationals will most likely finish top three in the Majors in strikeouts because there will not be a change in philosophy. I know Baker wins, but the Mets pitching staff is dominant. If you don't care about on base percentage and walks, you aren't going to beat them.
As for the Lerner family and Mike Rizzo - they should all be ashamed of themselves and completely embarrassed. My initial reaction late last night/early this morning was that this all falls on Rizzo and he should immediately be fired. That won't happen though and as more details come out, that probably shouldn't happen. However, Mike Rizzo is still to blame for this. Following the 2014 season, Rizzo picked up Matt Williams option for the 2016 season. Well, Matt Williams isn't here anymore, but the Lerner family is still on the hook to pay him $1 million for the 2016 season. That $1 million could have been the difference in being able to sign Bud Black and not being able to sign Bud Black, we may never know. It's also Mike Rizzo's job to tell the Lerners that if you want to get "your guy" to be the next manager, you may have to agree to their terms, not your own. For owners that have no problem agreeing to Scott Boras's terms every offseason, I didn't know this would be that big of a pill to swallow. This may not have been about Bud Black though, this may have been all about Dusty Baker and the Lerner family.
It was reported a few days ago that the Lerner family was thoroughly impressed with Dusty Baker and that they actually preferred him to Bud Black. However, Mike Rizzo and a few other front office personnel preferred Black to Baker, so the Nationals went with Black. The Lerner family seems to be of the thought that it doesn't matter who manages the team though, all that matters is that they're shelling out the money to put a contender on the field. That doesn't make too much sense though from a baseball standpoint or a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure Ted Lerner had his best employees working on the development of Tysons Corner, so wouldn't you want the best guy for the job handling one of your biggest investments, the Washington Nationals? From the outside looking in, it seems that Ted Lerner was going to do anything possible to save a few bucks on this managerial hire because he knows he's paying Matt Williams and most likely Jonathan Papelbon next year even though neither will be with the club. A one year offer with multiple team options is insulting to a manager with as much experience as Bud Black. Dusty Baker seemed to be fine with a two year offer with multiple club options, but that's because he wants to get back into managing. Bud Black stood his ground and honestly, with the experience he has, Dusty could have too. The Nationals are on their fourth manager in five years. It's not because the team has failed to meet expectations (except for this year), but it's more so because the Lerners will not commit to one person past two years. It's called Dan Snyder syndrome and it's hard to treat. The Lerner family, with the help of Mike Rizzo, just started the Washington Nationals 2016 offseason in the most embarrassing way possible. It's left fans frustrated, the rest of Major League Baseball scratching their heads, and the Nationals public relations staff with a huge mess.
Monday, November 2, 2015
The Beginning to a Huge Offseason
Just like I thought, the team with the best bullpen won the World Series. Well, sort of. My original prediction was that the Pirates would win the World Series. That didn't exactly turn out so well. The Pirates led the Majors with a 2.67 bullpen ERA, but right behind them were the Kansas City Royals with a 2.72 bullpen ERA. That bullpen was on full display during the World Series. Every game, you just got the feeling that if the Royals starter got them through five innings and they were within three runs, the Royals had a shot. Their bullpen gave up five total runs during the World Series, four of those runs were charged to Franklin Morales in Game 3, which was the only game the Royals lost. It was an absolutely dominating performance.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Mattingly Out In L.A. & World Series Prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to "mutually part ways" with manager Don Mattingly this morning. If the Nationals had a manager in place, this would probably be a meaningless headline for Nationals fans. The Nationals have not yet hired a new manager though, so expect to see Mattingly's name pop up within the next day or two.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.
Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.
Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.
World Series Prediction:
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.
Monday, October 5, 2015
It's Almost Better Than Making The Playoffs
The inevitable has finally happened. We've reached a new era. An era where the manager's post game press conferences may give us some explanations for the decisions made during the game. We won't get any responses telling us that there is a game to win tomorrow, even after we've officially been eliminated. That's right, Matt Williams was officially fired as manager of the Washington Nationals this morning. It hurts not making the playoffs, but this is a nice consolation prize. Had the Nationals made the playoffs, this guy would be around for at least another year. He would be managing a team that may have less talent than this year's 83 win bunch. Now we have a shot to contend next year. Mike Rizzo has a ton of work and a ton of decisions to make this off season, but he's made by far the easiest decision already, and he's off to a good start. I'll get into some of the other tough decisions Mike Rizzo will have to make and give you some predictions as to who the Nationals may go after on another day. Today is all about looking forward to a new coaching staff in the dugout next year.
The harder part of this decision was to relieve the rest of the coaching staff. Some of these guys have been with the Nationals and with Nationals players for almost ten years (Randy Knorr). The bottom line though, is this season was a colossal failure. That falls on everybody. Matt Williams will take the brunt of the blame, but the rest of the coaching staff is just as at fault. Side note, the offense actually scored the third most runs in the National League, so Rick Schu did a great job, but he was about the only one. Steve McCatty's message seemed to go stale this year after six years with the Nationals. Above all else though, Mike Rizzo had to give his new manager a clean slate. Not many managers come to a team with their coaching staff already picked for them. That's something Mike Rizzo did to Matt Williams, but it's not something he was going to be able to do again.
As for the candidates, I'm sticking with three of the four candidates that I listed during my September 14th blog. Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Bo Porter are very likely to all receive interviews for the job. I listed Dusty Baker as a candidate on September 14th, but ultimately, I don't think he's in the conversation. It will be interesting to see if Rizzo decides to go with a guy with some experience, or if he goes with somebody who's never managed again. Clearly, hiring a guy with no experience backfired on the Nationals two years ago. That may persuade Rizzo to change his mind with this next hire, especially with his job seemingly on the line if the Nationals can't compete for a National League postseason berth next season.
I don't know that Rizzo will actually interview more than three candidates. There's really no point because unless Mike Scioscia opts out of his contract with the Angels and decides he wants to come to the East Coast, there are only two candidates that should even be considered. Bud Black and Dave Martinez are the two names to watch as the Nationals managerial search gets underway. These two guys are different in terms of experience level, but the same in that they know what it takes to win.
Bud Black managed the San Diego Padres to a 649-713 record over the course of 8 1/2 years. More times than not, Black had little to work with in San Diego. He had solid pitching, but never had any bats, so the fact that he put together a .477 winning percentage with a smaller market team like the Padres speaks volumes to what he can do. Not to mention, from 2010 through 2014 (Black's last full season with the Padres), they finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. One of the Nationals biggest failures this season was the bullpen. This guy knows how to manage a bullpen and knows how to help develop bullpen arms. If Black is not one of the top two or three candidates on Rizzo's list, then he just isn't doing his job.
Dave Martinez is probably this off season's hottest managerial candidate that has no experience. Martinez is currently Joe Maddon's bench coach for the Chicago Cubs. He's actually been Maddon's right hand man since 2007. Considering Maddon has a career .524 winning percentage as a Major League manager, including turning this year's Chicago Cubs team into an instant World Series contender, I'd say that Martinez has learned a good amount from Maddon and is ready to take the next step. The Nationals missed out on their opportunity to grab Maddon a year ago, but the opportunity to nab a possible Maddon 2.0 is sitting right in front of them.
Ultimately, if I'm Mike Rizzo, I have Bud Black on a plane right now and I'm going to hire him as soon as I can. Like I said, this season was such a failure that Rizzo's job is now on the line. There's no time to experiment with guys who haven't managed before. It's time to right the ship and that starts with addressing your weaknesses. Last year's coaching staff was a weakness. Now Rizzo has the opportunity to turn that into a strength with a guy who has the experience, knows how to handle a pitching staff, and also knows how to handle a clubhouse. Pretty soon, the Nationals may have a new number 20 walking around in the dugout next year, and that's Bud Black.
Short Bonus Playoff Predictions:
AL Wild Card Game - Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Give me the Astros. The probable AL Cy-Young award winner, Dallas Keuchel has already dominated the Yankees twice this year.
NL Wild Card Game - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they both win? Jake Arrieta is mowing everybody down right now and the Pirates haven't had an answer for him this season (they're not the only ones) as they're 1-3 against him in five games. Gerrit Cole is pretty good though himself. Give me the Pirates in this one, with the Cubs bullpen blowing it in the 8th inning.
AL Divisional Round - Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers: Unless Cole Hamels pitches on three days rest on Thursday, the Rangers will be at a huge disadvantage on the mound. Either way, I think the Rangers are at a huge disadvantage. Blue Jays in 4.
AL Divisional Round - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros: Keuchel pitching Tuesday means he can't pitch Friday, which also means he won't pitch more than once this series. Royals in 4.
NL Divisional Round - St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Cardinals injuries ever going to catch up to them? Probably not because they're so deep and just keep bringing up prospects that contribute (The Nationals should take notes). I still like the Pirates in this series though. Pirates in 5.
NL Divisional Round - L.A. Dodgers vs N.Y. Mets: As much as I want both the Cubs and Pirates to win, I'd like both of these teams to lose. I actually am rooting for the Mets though in this one. Kershaw and Greinke will be tough to beat, but so will deGrom and Harvey. Mets in 5.
ALCS - Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals: Although the Royals have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, I don't know that they have the starting pitching to maneuver through the Blue Jays lineup. You may see Cueto twice, but other than Cueto, who has been shaky since coming to the Royals, there's nobody that scares me. Blue Jays in 6.
NLCS - New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: I really like how the Pirates play. They have a deep rotation, a great bullpen, and a lineup that doesn't have many holes. They also have a guy named Andrew McCutchen who plays center field. They could just as easily be bounced out on Wednesday night, but that's alright with me. Pirates in 6.
World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Best bullpen in the Major Leagues. I'm a Nationals fan, if I know one thing, I know this - THE BULLPEN MATTERS, IT CAN WIN OR LOSE YOU GAMES. Pirates in 6.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Perfect Ending
When this season began way back on Monday, April 6th, I said to myself "This season is going to be amazing, we're going to be eliminated from the playoffs and our best player is going to get choked out by a guy who never should have been on the team!" Alright, maybe I didn't say that to myself. I can actually safely say that no fan of any team has ever said that at the beginning of the season. I feel like ending this blog right here and just telling everybody to go back and read my blog from July 29th, which you should still do. The problem is, that blog, which was written a day after the Nats acquired Papelbon, only touches on how I and how many other Nationals fans are feeling about that idiot today.
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
The deeper rooted issue here is one that the Nationals may not address this year. It's one that I've mentioned before. It's an issue that's only getting worse and needs to be addressed as soon as the season concludes. When Mike Rizzo enters the conference room where he will face the Lerner family, he better have some great answers and a great plan on how he's going to right this ship. If he doesn't have any answers and a good plan to get back on track, he may very well be leaving without a job. That's right, the man who is responsible for making the Nationals a contender each of the past four years may be out of a job. Even if he does leave with his job, he should be working for free next year. The Lerners should tell him that every dime of his salary goes to paying Jonathan Papelbon's $11 million contract next year.
Jonathan Papelbon was a guy that nobody in the league was willing to touch. I can't stress this enough, a guy with an ERA in the mid 1's was unwanted. Nobody, especially a team fighting for a playoff spot, wants a guy on their roster who is going to screw up their chemistry in the clubhouse. In exactly one week, Papelbon pissed off the Orioles by nearly taking Manny Machado's head off and then he tries to choke out Bryce Harper for not running out a fly ball. In other news, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant have since filed for restraining orders against Jonathan Papelbon. Back to the choke out though, who are you to say ANYTHING to the National League MVP about running a ball out after you just blew the game open the previous half inning. Go pound sand Jonathan. I seriously doubt that Papelbon would have been willing to try and choke Jayson Werth out had he not run out a fly ball. I would have liked to see it though, because had he tried to choke Werth out, he would have gone home with a broken nose and a black eye. Papelbon's season and career might be over. He needs to drop his appeal with Major League Baseball, accept the suspension the Nationals hand him, and begin focusing on his tryout with the Liberal Bee Jays because that's about the only team in the United States that will let him play for them right now. The Nationals were 52-46 when they traded for Papelbon and are 27-30 since that point. Is all of that on Papelbon? No, but he sure did make it a lot worse. Drew Storen went on a downward spiral after the trade and Papelbon didn't even come in and pitch remotely close to as good as Storen had been pitching prior to the trade.
I could go on all day about Jonathan Papelbon, but it's a waste of time. The guy is a disgrace and may have thrown his last pitch for a Major League team yesterday. Mike Rizzo knew what he was getting when he traded for Papelbon. Rizzo is so stubborn and has such a big ego though that he didn't care because his main goal was getting Drew Storen out of the closer's role. Storen was (and still is) so far in Rizzo's dog house that he couldn't see the light of day. Rizzo won't let go of Storen blowing two games in the playoffs. What he won't realize and take credit for is the fact that he's to blame for both of those two losses as much as any Nationals player. In 2012, Rizzo decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. As great as Gio Gonzalez was in 2012, I would be hard pressed to say that Gio would have out-pitched Strasburg in game 5 against the Cardinals. Then in 2014, it was Rizzo's hand picked manager, Matt Williams, who pulled Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-0 game and went with Storen. Zimmermann was pitching a gem and got pulled anyways. Then in game four, Williams showed the world how terribly he could manage a bullpen by not letting Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen throw a pitch in a series defining game four. It's time to face the music, Rizzo. You are just as at fault for this season as anybody else is. In fact, you're probably more at fault. Your shutdown decision and your managerial choice are at the forefront for why this team has not succeeded in the playoffs. Your leadership again is the reason that this season will go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for a Major League Baseball team in recent history. The Nationals bullpen was never put in a position to succeed this season. Bringing in a middle reliever and a set up guy (I had only been calling for Joaquin Benoit for weeks) would have helped fix the problem. Bringing in Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen only gave the Nationals a bigger headache.
I don't feel like its necessary to pour salt in an open wound and roast Matt Williams. He's in over his head. He doesn't know what he's doing and he showed that yesterday by letting Jonathan Papelbon pitch the ninth inning after fighting the Nationals best player. He can play dumb and say he didn't know the severity, but Steve McCatty and Rick Schu helped break up the fight. Matt Williams either saw it first hand or was told about it right afterwards. It's disappointing that after Bryce Harper shows you some support, you let a guy who just choked him go back out to the mound for the ninth inning. I get it though Matt, we had a game to win and he's your closer. Oh wait, it was a meaningless game because we were eliminated on Saturday. I truly hope he goes on to be a great hitting coach, but he doesn't deserve another shot at managing.
There are really only about ten to twelve players who should feel confident that they will be playing for the Nationals next season. There is going to be a lot of turnover both on and off the field. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I'm already putting together a plan for how I can fix this thing next year and what I'm going to do with Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals will surely be looking for a new closer and a new manager, but the biggest question that remains is, will the Nationals be looking for a new General Manager as well?
Monday, September 14, 2015
Now You're Just Being Stubborn, Rizzo
I left for vacation with the Nationals five games behind the Mets with a three game head to head series looming. I came back with the Nationals nine and a half games behind the Mets and once again, in a free fall. A pathetic week from a pathetic team. The pathetic bullpen and pathetic managing was on full display. The Nats actually cut the Mets lead to four games before the three game series began on Monday. Mets fans were then pleasantly reminded that things could be worse than having Terry Collins as their manager. Matt Williams taunted Nats fans with poor bullpen decisions and a confusing bunt call. Mike Rizzo took it all in, watched the Mets sweep the Nationals, and still let Matt Williams board the plane to head to Miami with the rest of the team. The team seemed just as confused as the fans because even after an off day on Thursday, they looked lifeless, losing the first two games in Miami.
Mike Rizzo is making it hard on himself at this point. He assembled one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues and now he's hanging onto the manager of a lifeless team because its his buddy. Plain and simple, Matt Williams had no business boarding the plane to Miami after getting swept by the Mets. After letting Drew Storen implode on Tuesday night and throw 22 pitches (just 7 of those were strikes), he trotted him back out there the next night. In a tie game mind you. As you can tell, that ended well for the Nats. He also let Jonathan Papelbon pitch two innings on Tuesday night. Again, he threw him back out there Wednesday night in a game the Nationals were losing. He went from using them zero times in a pivotal series in late July to overworking them this series. It was a slap in the face to a fan base who had been calling for Williams to use Storen and Papelbon earlier in games and to use them in higher leverage situations. Not to mention, in a one run game on Tuesday night in the bottom of the ninth inning, Williams decided to bunt Anthony Rendon, who was two for four on the night, so that he could stay out of a double play. It was the ultimate middle finger to Nats fans. Anyone who says any differently is just delusional unless your argument is that Matt Williams is just that bad of a manager and doesn't understand how awful of a decision that was. I can't watch this team anymore with Williams managing. I actually refuse to, and you should too.
The fact that Williams is still managing this team makes me question what Rizzo is actually watching on a daily basis. It makes me think that he's really considering bringing him back next season. The Nationals schedule over the next two weeks (aside from a three game series against the Orioles) is absolutely atrocious. I'm worried that the Nationals will go 13-3 or something ridiculous over the next two weeks and then Rizzo will say that Williams has done a "masterful" job guiding the Nationals to an 87-75 season. They'll miss the playoffs and Rizzo will tell everyone he could have constructed a better bullpen and injuries played a big role in missing the playoffs. The Nationals will have a much different look to them on the field next year, but the only way they can be competitive is if they also have a much different look to them in the dugout.
Ultimately, I do have faith that Rizzo will let Williams go after the season. The list of candidates for the job should be a pretty short one. At the top of the list should be Bud Black, I don't think I need to go any further as to why. He has the knowledge and the experience it takes to win, that's the bottom line. If you're looking for another candidate with experience, then bringing Dusty Baker in for an interview wouldn't hurt. The final two candidates lack a whole lot of experience but are willing and able to think outside of the box and able to adapt to today's game, which is a huge plus. Dave Martinez, who has been Joe Maddon's right hand man for the past eight years, is going to be a hot name for any team with a managerial opening. Why wouldn't he be? He's been able to learn from one of the best in the game. Maddon is an excellent in game manager, great motivator, and a guy that players want to play for. Going with Martinez could be a huge step forward for a Nationals team that is going to be much younger next year. The last candidate that Rizzo may consider is former third base coach, Bo Porter. Porter got some managerial experience in Houston. Although he didn't win many games, the players liked him, he showed that he's willing to adapt to today's game, and he's not afraid to get fired up and show some personality during and after games. If I had to rank these candidates based on who I'd like to see in the dugout next year, I'd go Bud Black, Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, then Bo Porter. I'd like to think that Black and Martinez would be far and away the top two candidates though.
It should be an interesting off season, but until then we can enjoy the Nationals going on a nice 13-3 or 14-2 run to finish the year. They'll finish three or four games out of first place, but they have to tease us a little bit and show us what should have been, right?
Mike Rizzo is making it hard on himself at this point. He assembled one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues and now he's hanging onto the manager of a lifeless team because its his buddy. Plain and simple, Matt Williams had no business boarding the plane to Miami after getting swept by the Mets. After letting Drew Storen implode on Tuesday night and throw 22 pitches (just 7 of those were strikes), he trotted him back out there the next night. In a tie game mind you. As you can tell, that ended well for the Nats. He also let Jonathan Papelbon pitch two innings on Tuesday night. Again, he threw him back out there Wednesday night in a game the Nationals were losing. He went from using them zero times in a pivotal series in late July to overworking them this series. It was a slap in the face to a fan base who had been calling for Williams to use Storen and Papelbon earlier in games and to use them in higher leverage situations. Not to mention, in a one run game on Tuesday night in the bottom of the ninth inning, Williams decided to bunt Anthony Rendon, who was two for four on the night, so that he could stay out of a double play. It was the ultimate middle finger to Nats fans. Anyone who says any differently is just delusional unless your argument is that Matt Williams is just that bad of a manager and doesn't understand how awful of a decision that was. I can't watch this team anymore with Williams managing. I actually refuse to, and you should too.
The fact that Williams is still managing this team makes me question what Rizzo is actually watching on a daily basis. It makes me think that he's really considering bringing him back next season. The Nationals schedule over the next two weeks (aside from a three game series against the Orioles) is absolutely atrocious. I'm worried that the Nationals will go 13-3 or something ridiculous over the next two weeks and then Rizzo will say that Williams has done a "masterful" job guiding the Nationals to an 87-75 season. They'll miss the playoffs and Rizzo will tell everyone he could have constructed a better bullpen and injuries played a big role in missing the playoffs. The Nationals will have a much different look to them on the field next year, but the only way they can be competitive is if they also have a much different look to them in the dugout.
Ultimately, I do have faith that Rizzo will let Williams go after the season. The list of candidates for the job should be a pretty short one. At the top of the list should be Bud Black, I don't think I need to go any further as to why. He has the knowledge and the experience it takes to win, that's the bottom line. If you're looking for another candidate with experience, then bringing Dusty Baker in for an interview wouldn't hurt. The final two candidates lack a whole lot of experience but are willing and able to think outside of the box and able to adapt to today's game, which is a huge plus. Dave Martinez, who has been Joe Maddon's right hand man for the past eight years, is going to be a hot name for any team with a managerial opening. Why wouldn't he be? He's been able to learn from one of the best in the game. Maddon is an excellent in game manager, great motivator, and a guy that players want to play for. Going with Martinez could be a huge step forward for a Nationals team that is going to be much younger next year. The last candidate that Rizzo may consider is former third base coach, Bo Porter. Porter got some managerial experience in Houston. Although he didn't win many games, the players liked him, he showed that he's willing to adapt to today's game, and he's not afraid to get fired up and show some personality during and after games. If I had to rank these candidates based on who I'd like to see in the dugout next year, I'd go Bud Black, Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, then Bo Porter. I'd like to think that Black and Martinez would be far and away the top two candidates though.
It should be an interesting off season, but until then we can enjoy the Nationals going on a nice 13-3 or 14-2 run to finish the year. They'll finish three or four games out of first place, but they have to tease us a little bit and show us what should have been, right?
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
At This Point It's Comical
The Nationals are unofficially eliminated from the playoffs. I unofficially eliminated them way back on August 7th when they blew their 3 run lead in the 8th inning against Colorado. For those of you holding out hope though, you now can write this season off as one of the biggest disappointments in the history of Major League Baseball. So what's left, why even watch? Well, as I said above, the Nationals are unofficially eliminated. Technically, until they're officially eliminated which should happen sometime in mid-late September, they still have a shot. The real reason to still watch though is to watch Matt Williams drive this team even further into the ground. Furthermore, to see if this team actually gives up on Williams because that may be the only thing that could get him fired.
Mike Rizzo is delusional if he thinks that Williams is doing a good job. He's also delusional if he thinks the reason the Nationals are 6.5 games out of first place is because of injuries. Since Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nationals are 14-16. I don't think the Cardinals who are missing their best starting pitcher, their best hitter, their set up man, their starting fist baseman, and rookie Randal Grichuk who's hitting .284 with 15 home runs are using the injury excuse. Oh wait, that's because they're 85-46, they don't need any excuses because they're too busy winning.
Last night's loss against the Cardinals was able to show all of the Nationals weaknesses of the 2015 season in one game. If you hadn't seen a game all year and you were wondering why the Nationals are hovering around .500, you would have had no more questions after watching last night. There was poor defense, there was poor defensive placement, there was AWFUL bullpen management, and terrible relief pitching. All of that in one game. If all of that happened on April 23rd against the Cardinals, I may chalk it up to the Nats trying to find their groove and just getting back into the swing of things. On August 31st though, that's just who this team is.
In the bottom of the fourth inning, with the game tied 1-1, Kolten Wong stepped to the plate with runners on first and third with one out. If you're the Nationals, you're hoping for an inning ending double play. Wong is a fast runner though, so if you have any chance of pulling off a double play the ball has to be hit hard and your short stop and second baseman have to be playing at double play depth. Well what do ya know, Gio Gonzalez does his job and gets the hard hit ground ball to second base. The ball goes right past a diving Anthony Rendon into center field, the Cardinals score and take a 2-1 lead. By the end of the inning, the Cardinals led 3-1, all because the Nationals weren't positioned right. Is that on Matt Williams, is that on Mark Weidemaier, or is that on Anthony Rendon? I don't know, but it's a mental mistake that good teams don't make. It was a tailor made double play if you're playing at double play depth. It's honestly mind blowing that a Major League team isn't playing at double play depth with a runners on first and third and just one out.
Matt Williams takes the cake again though. The Nationals clawed back into this game scoring one run in the 6th to make it a 3-2 game and then took a 5-3 lead on a Ryan Zimmerman blast in the top of the 7th. Right after the Nationals took the 5-3 lead, I sent this text to a few friends "Now we get to watch Williams manage a close game, sit back and enjoy". It was too predictable. As a Nationals fan, you knew the Nationals weren't going to be able to hold a 5-3 lead because the bottom of the 7th inning was coming up. Plain and simple, Williams can't manage a bullpen. Williams went with Casey Janssen to pitch the 7th inning last night and I'm fine with that. The problem is when the Cardinals got their first two hitters on against Janssen, Williams should have called down to the bullpen to get Drew Storen warming. Instead, he warmed nobody and thought he was the smartest guy at Busch Stadium when Janssen got a double play. Then came the pitch around to Matt Carpenter so the Nats could face a good contact hitter hitting .333 on the year. At this point, Felipe Rivero is warming up, not Drew Storen. The Cardinals ended up scoring 4 runs in the inning and taking an 8-5 game. So quick recap - 1) the Mets had already won, 2) the Nats have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th with two outs but with the Cardinals threatening, 3) Casey Janssen had thrown 20+ pitches already, 4) you leave Janssen in, never warm Storen up, and again your two best relievers never even touch a baseball in a tight game that you needed to win to keep pace. I didn't see the post game press conference, but I'll tell you what Williams said, "Well, I had to stick with Casey there because Drew and Thornton were unavailable. We'll just have to come ready to play tomorrow and hopefully get a win". After every loss, Williams will tell you at least two relievers are unavailable and that there's always tomorrow. Matt Williams managing career may not have many more "tomorrow's" because if he does get fired, there's no way any team gives him another shot after seeing how terrible he was for the Nationals.
Mets fans will tell you that Terry Collins is a bad manager, but on Sunday, Collins used Tyler Clippard to get the final out in the 7th inning and then let him pitch the 8th inning to ensure the Mets kept the lead. Matt Williams has never and will never do that. It would require him to go outside his comfort level, think outside the box, and do something that may actually win you a game. To not use one of your two best relievers to get you the final out in the 7th inning against a great team is poor baseball and poor execution. There are four games off the top of my head that I can think of that the Nationals should have won if not for Matt Williams managing this team. That's a difference of four games in the standings, instead of 6.5 games back, you would me a manageable 2.5 games back. This team can not reach its potential and will not win with Matt Williams as the manager. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo thinks that Williams is a genius and he's not going to fire him unless the players clearly give up on him. I have to tell ya, if I'm a player in that clubhouse, I'm pretty close to giving up on this guy.
Mike Rizzo is delusional if he thinks that Williams is doing a good job. He's also delusional if he thinks the reason the Nationals are 6.5 games out of first place is because of injuries. Since Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nationals are 14-16. I don't think the Cardinals who are missing their best starting pitcher, their best hitter, their set up man, their starting fist baseman, and rookie Randal Grichuk who's hitting .284 with 15 home runs are using the injury excuse. Oh wait, that's because they're 85-46, they don't need any excuses because they're too busy winning.
Last night's loss against the Cardinals was able to show all of the Nationals weaknesses of the 2015 season in one game. If you hadn't seen a game all year and you were wondering why the Nationals are hovering around .500, you would have had no more questions after watching last night. There was poor defense, there was poor defensive placement, there was AWFUL bullpen management, and terrible relief pitching. All of that in one game. If all of that happened on April 23rd against the Cardinals, I may chalk it up to the Nats trying to find their groove and just getting back into the swing of things. On August 31st though, that's just who this team is.
In the bottom of the fourth inning, with the game tied 1-1, Kolten Wong stepped to the plate with runners on first and third with one out. If you're the Nationals, you're hoping for an inning ending double play. Wong is a fast runner though, so if you have any chance of pulling off a double play the ball has to be hit hard and your short stop and second baseman have to be playing at double play depth. Well what do ya know, Gio Gonzalez does his job and gets the hard hit ground ball to second base. The ball goes right past a diving Anthony Rendon into center field, the Cardinals score and take a 2-1 lead. By the end of the inning, the Cardinals led 3-1, all because the Nationals weren't positioned right. Is that on Matt Williams, is that on Mark Weidemaier, or is that on Anthony Rendon? I don't know, but it's a mental mistake that good teams don't make. It was a tailor made double play if you're playing at double play depth. It's honestly mind blowing that a Major League team isn't playing at double play depth with a runners on first and third and just one out.
Matt Williams takes the cake again though. The Nationals clawed back into this game scoring one run in the 6th to make it a 3-2 game and then took a 5-3 lead on a Ryan Zimmerman blast in the top of the 7th. Right after the Nationals took the 5-3 lead, I sent this text to a few friends "Now we get to watch Williams manage a close game, sit back and enjoy". It was too predictable. As a Nationals fan, you knew the Nationals weren't going to be able to hold a 5-3 lead because the bottom of the 7th inning was coming up. Plain and simple, Williams can't manage a bullpen. Williams went with Casey Janssen to pitch the 7th inning last night and I'm fine with that. The problem is when the Cardinals got their first two hitters on against Janssen, Williams should have called down to the bullpen to get Drew Storen warming. Instead, he warmed nobody and thought he was the smartest guy at Busch Stadium when Janssen got a double play. Then came the pitch around to Matt Carpenter so the Nats could face a good contact hitter hitting .333 on the year. At this point, Felipe Rivero is warming up, not Drew Storen. The Cardinals ended up scoring 4 runs in the inning and taking an 8-5 game. So quick recap - 1) the Mets had already won, 2) the Nats have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th with two outs but with the Cardinals threatening, 3) Casey Janssen had thrown 20+ pitches already, 4) you leave Janssen in, never warm Storen up, and again your two best relievers never even touch a baseball in a tight game that you needed to win to keep pace. I didn't see the post game press conference, but I'll tell you what Williams said, "Well, I had to stick with Casey there because Drew and Thornton were unavailable. We'll just have to come ready to play tomorrow and hopefully get a win". After every loss, Williams will tell you at least two relievers are unavailable and that there's always tomorrow. Matt Williams managing career may not have many more "tomorrow's" because if he does get fired, there's no way any team gives him another shot after seeing how terrible he was for the Nationals.
Mets fans will tell you that Terry Collins is a bad manager, but on Sunday, Collins used Tyler Clippard to get the final out in the 7th inning and then let him pitch the 8th inning to ensure the Mets kept the lead. Matt Williams has never and will never do that. It would require him to go outside his comfort level, think outside the box, and do something that may actually win you a game. To not use one of your two best relievers to get you the final out in the 7th inning against a great team is poor baseball and poor execution. There are four games off the top of my head that I can think of that the Nationals should have won if not for Matt Williams managing this team. That's a difference of four games in the standings, instead of 6.5 games back, you would me a manageable 2.5 games back. This team can not reach its potential and will not win with Matt Williams as the manager. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo thinks that Williams is a genius and he's not going to fire him unless the players clearly give up on him. I have to tell ya, if I'm a player in that clubhouse, I'm pretty close to giving up on this guy.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
This is Our Nightmare
The Nats have officially put themselves in a bind. These next two series in San Francisco and Colorado are now must win series. They need to go 5-2 to end this road trip. Based on the fact that they are 4-9 over their past 13 games, that doesn't seem likely. If they want to get in and stay in the pennant race, they're going to have to get hot soon. Now is as good a time as any.
A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.
The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.
As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.
Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.
Record Against Aces
The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.
Lineup Change
Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.
Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.
It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late.
A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.
The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.
As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.
Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.
Record Against Aces
The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.
Lineup Change
Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.
Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.
It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late.
Thursday, August 6, 2015
It's Getting Worse...Hire Bud Black
I'm seriously baffled. There's truly not much to say that hasn't already been said or that hasn't already run through your mind. I don't think anybody can fully explain Matt Williams decision making process at this point, not even Matt Williams himself. I thought I was mad when I wrote the last post after the Mets series. Yes, the one where Williams neglected to use either of his best relievers in two close games while fighting the Mets for first place. Williams has actually found a way to infuriate me more though over the last three games.
On Monday night, Williams decided in a 5-0 game that it was finally time to bring in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. After he let them throw zero pitches in close games against the Mets, he decided that in a blowout they needed some work. Let me get this straight, in a tie game from the 8th inning on, you'd like to use Aaron Barrett and Felipe Rivero. However, trailing 5-0 in the 8th inning, you'd like to use your set up guy and closer. That's quite the philosophy. It's not going to win you many games, but it's definitely interesting! I was pretty confused at this point, but I wouldn't say I was mad though because bringing in Storen and Papelbon on Monday had no bearing on the outcome of that game. Williams wasn't done though, he had a plan for Wednesday night that was really going to put Nats fans over the edge.
Williams has essentially made it known without saying it that Gio Gonzalez is on an extremely short leash. His last start against the Mets, he went 4 2/3 innings giving up 1 run. Last night against the Diamondbacks, he went 5+ innings giving up 2 runs. Gio has historically been somewhat wild and known to walk a fair amount of batters. That's also what makes him so good though. It's an uncomfortable at bat for anybody up there against Gio. He struck out 7 last night and walked 1, he was pitching very well and worked out of numerous jams. Williams, of course, thought otherwise. Let's backtrack to the bottom of the 5th inning though. Gio was due up second in the inning and Matt Williams let him hit. Fast forward to the top of the 6th inning and Gio gives up a lead off single to Yasmany Tomas and then Williams pulls him. I just about lost it at this point. There is absolutely zero reason you would let Gio hit if you knew you were going to take him out the next inning if he let one batter reach. Seriously, no reason you would do that. Matt Williams punted an at bat in a close game for no reason.
To make matters worse, Williams showed he clearly has no clue what he's doing because he brought in Aaron Barrett. First of all, Aaron Barrett has a 4.60 ERA. He has no business being in a tie game or one run game. Here's the real kicker, Barrett has held opponents to a .196 batting average with nobody on base. If you want to use Barrett, let him start an inning fresh, that's when he's at his best. On the flip side, opponents are hitting .290 off Barrett with a runner (or multiple runners) on base. When Barrett came in, he was warming up next to Matt Thornton. Thornton holds opponents to a .196 batting average with runner(s) on base. The next issue is the Diamondbacks next batter after the Tomas single was Chris Owings. Chris Owings is a right handed batter, however, he hits .255 off of right handers and just .152 against lefties. So naturally, Matt Williams went with a right hander and Owings singled. He had Gio on the mound who is a lefty and Thornton, another lefty, warming up. It's honestly mind boggling. I don't know if he's decided not to look at those kind of stats, or if he just totally disregards them and goes with his gut. Whatever he's doing is clearly not working.
Once Barrett came in and blew the game open it didn't matter what Williams did. The only good managing decision he made last night was to not use Janssen, Storen, or Papelbon again in a blowout. There are two things that can save the Nationals season at this point. First, is getting Denard Span back. He's the table setter, the offense is so much better and much smoother with him at the top of the lineup (the Nats also need to resign him, but that's another story for another day). Second, they unfortunately have to fire Matt Williams. He has to go, there's no way around it. He has no feel for how to manage a bullpen in a close game. If you can't do that, your team is going to struggle to play .500 baseball. He doesn't even have reasons for why he's making certain moves. His post game interviews offer no reasoning behind his decisions. Not to mention, yesterday on The Junkies, Williams sounded completely defeated. I get it - answering the same question over and over is exhausting, managing a baseball team for 162+ games is exhausting, but that's the job. That's what you were hired for. You aren't doing your job right now, that's all there is to it. There needs to be a change. Absent a hot streak, the Nationals are in real danger of missing the playoffs during their "dream season" where they were supposed to breeze through the regular season. I'm not saying hit the panic button yet because this team has a ton of talent. If Rizzo would swallow his pride and admit he made a mistake in hiring Williams, then he could put Williams on a plane back to Arizona today with the Diamondbacks. That's not likely to happen though and ultimately on Sunday, October 4th, after the season finale against the Mets, Nats fans might be sitting on their couches stunned at the fact that the Mets are going to the playoffs and the Nationals are not.
Bud Black is waiting for a phone call and I'm waiting to see Bud Black in a Nationals uniform.
On Monday night, Williams decided in a 5-0 game that it was finally time to bring in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. After he let them throw zero pitches in close games against the Mets, he decided that in a blowout they needed some work. Let me get this straight, in a tie game from the 8th inning on, you'd like to use Aaron Barrett and Felipe Rivero. However, trailing 5-0 in the 8th inning, you'd like to use your set up guy and closer. That's quite the philosophy. It's not going to win you many games, but it's definitely interesting! I was pretty confused at this point, but I wouldn't say I was mad though because bringing in Storen and Papelbon on Monday had no bearing on the outcome of that game. Williams wasn't done though, he had a plan for Wednesday night that was really going to put Nats fans over the edge.
Williams has essentially made it known without saying it that Gio Gonzalez is on an extremely short leash. His last start against the Mets, he went 4 2/3 innings giving up 1 run. Last night against the Diamondbacks, he went 5+ innings giving up 2 runs. Gio has historically been somewhat wild and known to walk a fair amount of batters. That's also what makes him so good though. It's an uncomfortable at bat for anybody up there against Gio. He struck out 7 last night and walked 1, he was pitching very well and worked out of numerous jams. Williams, of course, thought otherwise. Let's backtrack to the bottom of the 5th inning though. Gio was due up second in the inning and Matt Williams let him hit. Fast forward to the top of the 6th inning and Gio gives up a lead off single to Yasmany Tomas and then Williams pulls him. I just about lost it at this point. There is absolutely zero reason you would let Gio hit if you knew you were going to take him out the next inning if he let one batter reach. Seriously, no reason you would do that. Matt Williams punted an at bat in a close game for no reason.
To make matters worse, Williams showed he clearly has no clue what he's doing because he brought in Aaron Barrett. First of all, Aaron Barrett has a 4.60 ERA. He has no business being in a tie game or one run game. Here's the real kicker, Barrett has held opponents to a .196 batting average with nobody on base. If you want to use Barrett, let him start an inning fresh, that's when he's at his best. On the flip side, opponents are hitting .290 off Barrett with a runner (or multiple runners) on base. When Barrett came in, he was warming up next to Matt Thornton. Thornton holds opponents to a .196 batting average with runner(s) on base. The next issue is the Diamondbacks next batter after the Tomas single was Chris Owings. Chris Owings is a right handed batter, however, he hits .255 off of right handers and just .152 against lefties. So naturally, Matt Williams went with a right hander and Owings singled. He had Gio on the mound who is a lefty and Thornton, another lefty, warming up. It's honestly mind boggling. I don't know if he's decided not to look at those kind of stats, or if he just totally disregards them and goes with his gut. Whatever he's doing is clearly not working.
Once Barrett came in and blew the game open it didn't matter what Williams did. The only good managing decision he made last night was to not use Janssen, Storen, or Papelbon again in a blowout. There are two things that can save the Nationals season at this point. First, is getting Denard Span back. He's the table setter, the offense is so much better and much smoother with him at the top of the lineup (the Nats also need to resign him, but that's another story for another day). Second, they unfortunately have to fire Matt Williams. He has to go, there's no way around it. He has no feel for how to manage a bullpen in a close game. If you can't do that, your team is going to struggle to play .500 baseball. He doesn't even have reasons for why he's making certain moves. His post game interviews offer no reasoning behind his decisions. Not to mention, yesterday on The Junkies, Williams sounded completely defeated. I get it - answering the same question over and over is exhausting, managing a baseball team for 162+ games is exhausting, but that's the job. That's what you were hired for. You aren't doing your job right now, that's all there is to it. There needs to be a change. Absent a hot streak, the Nationals are in real danger of missing the playoffs during their "dream season" where they were supposed to breeze through the regular season. I'm not saying hit the panic button yet because this team has a ton of talent. If Rizzo would swallow his pride and admit he made a mistake in hiring Williams, then he could put Williams on a plane back to Arizona today with the Diamondbacks. That's not likely to happen though and ultimately on Sunday, October 4th, after the season finale against the Mets, Nats fans might be sitting on their couches stunned at the fact that the Mets are going to the playoffs and the Nationals are not.
Bud Black is waiting for a phone call and I'm waiting to see Bud Black in a Nationals uniform.
Monday, August 3, 2015
The Worst Possible Outcome
It's August 3rd and I'm about ready to start a petition for the Nationals to fire Matt Williams. Williams wasn't the only reason that the Nationals just got swept by the Mets which forced a virtual tie for first place, but he's a big reason for it. My last blog was about Jonathan Papelbon and how I didn't personally like the move mainly because of what it may do to the clubhouse. However, I did say that Papelbon is a very good pitcher. Having an 8th and 9th inning of Storen and Papelbon is a luxury most teams in the Majors do not have. Sure you can blame these losses on the fact that the offense couldn't manufacture any runs and I'd tell you that you have a valid point. The Mets do have one if, if not the best, starting pitching staffs in the Majors though. If you were expecting the Nats to drop 5+ runs every night against the Mets, then in all honesty, you have no clue what you're talking about. This was going to be a series where runs come at a premium, which means as a manager, every move counts.
There's no doubt that going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position is going to back to haunt you. The hitting in this series was absolutely awful. I could go on an on about how I have no faith in the Nationals offense in big games, but there's no point in doing that because it's already well documented. This is the same Nationals team that went 2 for 24 last October in the NLDS against the Giants. They can't push runs across in big games. It's an awful problem to have, but its also a problem that you can probably still win with because of the Nationals pitching. You need an experienced and competent manager to navigate you through the 2-1 and 3-2 games though. The Giants have that in Bruce Bochy and the Orioles have that in Buck Showalter. The Nationals do not have that in Matt Williams.
This brings us back to the Nationals having the luxury of having Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. These two guys have two of the lowest ERA's among relievers in the National League. In the biggest series of the season to date for the Nationals, their two best relievers pitched exactly ZERO innings. Not one appearance, not one inning. It's not like these games weren't close. The Nationals lost 2-1 in 12 innings on Friday and then 3-2, with the winning run being scored in the bottom of the eighth on Saturday. Are you kidding me? You're out of excuses Matt Williams. Completely out of excuses. You were a fine third base coach with the Diamondbacks and I think that's probably where you need to be. That way you don't have to even think about a bullpen decision.
Felipe Rivero, who has turned into quite a good reliever by the way, gave the Nationals two fantastic innings on Friday night. Then in the bottom of the 12th, Matt Williams decided to trot Rivero back out there for another inning of work. Keep in mind, Rivero was a starter up until 2014, at which point the Nationals converted him to a reliever. That means this entire year, Rivero had been pitching in a relief role where he would throw one or two innings. Rivero comes out for his third inning of work and promptly gives up a walk off homer. I'm still baffled, so I'd like to again point out that Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen are still just hanging out in the bullpen at this point. The excuse for Friday night was that the Nationals had two relievers who weren't available, but they wouldn't say who. I would assume Storen was one of them because he had pitched the previous two nights. I would also assume if the Nationals happen to run out of pitchers Friday night, Storen would have happily come in the game. There was no reason Rivero went back out there for his third inning of work. When it backfired, Williams had to come up with a quick excuse so he went with the famous "some of my guys weren't available". Whatever the case may be it was a garbage decision.
Saturday night though you're assuming all your guys are available except probably Rivero and Barrett who went 2 innings on Friday. In a 2-2 game in the 8th inning, you're most likely thinking here comes Storen. You're wrong. He's hanging out in the bullpen with Papelbon again! Talk about building camaraderie, those guys spent three days together without even touching a baseball! Matt Williams decides to go with matchups instead and bring Matt Thornton in the game instead. Thornton has been great for the Nationals again this year, but in a tie game in the 8th inning of the biggest series of the year, you'd probably like Storen out there. Matty boy makes the wrong call again, Nats lose 3-2.
I just can't watch it anymore. If you're going to lose big games, lose them with your best guys out there. Use some common sense. Would you bench Bryce Harper in favor of Tyler Moore because you like the matchup better? No, you wouldn't. So why would you do it tied 2-2 in the 8th inning of a a meaningful division game? Your two best relievers saw the mound at Citi Field a combined zero times in three games. I can't get over that. Unfortunately, I don't see the bullpen management ever getting better. Over a year and a half into the job, Williams still can't get a feel for the appropriate time to use his guys. Like I said, not being able to push runs across falls on the lineup, but not using your two best relievers in the most meaningful series of the year, that falls on the manager. The Nationals and Mets finish the regular season facing off against each other in New York and I'm honestly terrified at the thought of Matt Williams possibly managing a game that decides whether or not the Nationals make the playoffs. Bud Black is available, just saying.
There's no doubt that going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position is going to back to haunt you. The hitting in this series was absolutely awful. I could go on an on about how I have no faith in the Nationals offense in big games, but there's no point in doing that because it's already well documented. This is the same Nationals team that went 2 for 24 last October in the NLDS against the Giants. They can't push runs across in big games. It's an awful problem to have, but its also a problem that you can probably still win with because of the Nationals pitching. You need an experienced and competent manager to navigate you through the 2-1 and 3-2 games though. The Giants have that in Bruce Bochy and the Orioles have that in Buck Showalter. The Nationals do not have that in Matt Williams.
This brings us back to the Nationals having the luxury of having Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. These two guys have two of the lowest ERA's among relievers in the National League. In the biggest series of the season to date for the Nationals, their two best relievers pitched exactly ZERO innings. Not one appearance, not one inning. It's not like these games weren't close. The Nationals lost 2-1 in 12 innings on Friday and then 3-2, with the winning run being scored in the bottom of the eighth on Saturday. Are you kidding me? You're out of excuses Matt Williams. Completely out of excuses. You were a fine third base coach with the Diamondbacks and I think that's probably where you need to be. That way you don't have to even think about a bullpen decision.
Felipe Rivero, who has turned into quite a good reliever by the way, gave the Nationals two fantastic innings on Friday night. Then in the bottom of the 12th, Matt Williams decided to trot Rivero back out there for another inning of work. Keep in mind, Rivero was a starter up until 2014, at which point the Nationals converted him to a reliever. That means this entire year, Rivero had been pitching in a relief role where he would throw one or two innings. Rivero comes out for his third inning of work and promptly gives up a walk off homer. I'm still baffled, so I'd like to again point out that Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen are still just hanging out in the bullpen at this point. The excuse for Friday night was that the Nationals had two relievers who weren't available, but they wouldn't say who. I would assume Storen was one of them because he had pitched the previous two nights. I would also assume if the Nationals happen to run out of pitchers Friday night, Storen would have happily come in the game. There was no reason Rivero went back out there for his third inning of work. When it backfired, Williams had to come up with a quick excuse so he went with the famous "some of my guys weren't available". Whatever the case may be it was a garbage decision.
Saturday night though you're assuming all your guys are available except probably Rivero and Barrett who went 2 innings on Friday. In a 2-2 game in the 8th inning, you're most likely thinking here comes Storen. You're wrong. He's hanging out in the bullpen with Papelbon again! Talk about building camaraderie, those guys spent three days together without even touching a baseball! Matt Williams decides to go with matchups instead and bring Matt Thornton in the game instead. Thornton has been great for the Nationals again this year, but in a tie game in the 8th inning of the biggest series of the year, you'd probably like Storen out there. Matty boy makes the wrong call again, Nats lose 3-2.
I just can't watch it anymore. If you're going to lose big games, lose them with your best guys out there. Use some common sense. Would you bench Bryce Harper in favor of Tyler Moore because you like the matchup better? No, you wouldn't. So why would you do it tied 2-2 in the 8th inning of a a meaningful division game? Your two best relievers saw the mound at Citi Field a combined zero times in three games. I can't get over that. Unfortunately, I don't see the bullpen management ever getting better. Over a year and a half into the job, Williams still can't get a feel for the appropriate time to use his guys. Like I said, not being able to push runs across falls on the lineup, but not using your two best relievers in the most meaningful series of the year, that falls on the manager. The Nationals and Mets finish the regular season facing off against each other in New York and I'm honestly terrified at the thought of Matt Williams possibly managing a game that decides whether or not the Nationals make the playoffs. Bud Black is available, just saying.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
What Did You Just Do Mike Rizzo?
For those looking for my thoughts on last night's game or how I think the Nationals will do with Werth and Zimmerman back, you'll have to wait until my next post. This post will strictly focus on a move that Mike Rizzo made yesterday that has the potential to throw a wrench into this whole season. I didn't want to write anything last night because I wanted to see if my initial reaction to the trade would change. It didn't. As I write this, I'm still confused, slightly mad, and honestly flabbergasted. Yesterday, the Nationals traded AA pitcher Nick Pivetta, their 10th best prospect, for Phillies' closer, Jonathan Papelbon. There is no doubt that the Nationals bullpen is now deeper, but to say it's better is completely dependent on how Drew Storen takes being the new set up man. There are many different elements that go into why this move doesn't make sense, why it's confusing, and why it could turn out to be one of Rizzo's worst moves as the General Manager of the Nationals.
The first thing makes me mad about this deal is that Mike Rizzo has essentially told Drew Storen "Thanks for the great first half, you have 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA, but I don't trust you, so I'm demoting you." What can this guy do to keep his job? He blows a save in the 2012 NLDS and the Nationals go out and sign Rafael Soriano, which was a disaster. He blows a save in the 2014 NLDS and Rizzo says Storen is still the closer, then mid way through a career year, he brings in what could possibly be Rafael Soriano 2.0. Nothing against Jonathan Papelbon's stats, he's 17 for 17 in saves this year with a 1.59 ERA (yes, actually lower than Storen's). With that being said, he's a 34 year old reliever with diminishing velocity and he's under contract for another year for $11 million. Not to mention, $3 million of that $11 million is deferred. If Mike Rizzo doesn't stop deferring money on these contracts, then by 2020, he's going to have a payroll of $160 million, $80 million of which are players who are either retired or not on the team anymore, but I digress. As Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post pointed out, if the Nats had acquired Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, it still would have been a tough pill for Storen to swallow, but he would have accepted the demotion. Being demoted for Papelbon though isn't going to sit well. The bottom line here is you're left with a pissed off Drew Storen and an aging closer who you have to pay next year.
The second element to this is Mike Rizzo is now costing Drew Storen big time money. The salary difference between set-up guys and closers is huge. Storen doesn't become a free agent until after the 2016 season, so if the Nationals hang on to him, they're essentially reducing his value as much as they can so that he's cheaper in arbitration. When Storen goes into his final arbitration hearing this winter, he'll probably leave earning $7-8 million instead of $11-12 million that he could have been earning had he finished the year closing for the Nationals. That means he stands to lose $4-5 million because he won't be able to add to his save total for the rest of the year.
If I were Drew, I would have gone into Mike Rizzo's office yesterday right after the trade was completed and asked to be traded. This isn't about Storen being selfish, this is about Rizzo not trusting Storen. I don't ever want to work for an employer or boss that doesn't trust me, so why should Storen? This team needs Storen, so it's on Rizzo to smooth things over. Maybe he tells Storen that he's going for it all this year and just ride it out this year and then in the offseason he will trade either Storen or Papelbon. Who knows, but if Storen isn't on board, then the bullpen just got worse, not better.
Lastly, we have the diva factor. There is no arguing with how good and reliable Jonathan Papelbon has been over his career. There are some question marks about Jonathan Papelbon the person. There's no way around the fact that Papelbon has had his issues with the fans and the media. Then there's Papelbon in the clubhouse, which I can honestly say I don't know much about. Based on the fact that Papelbon would only waive his no-trade clause if he becomes the closer though, he sounds like a me-first kind of guy. Hey "Paps", you're getting traded to a contender and they've agreed to pick up your option for next year so how about you shut your mouth and pitch when you're asked to pitch. Mike Rizzo preaches all the time about having good guys in the clubhouse and wanting to build a great clubhouse. From everything I've read, the Nationals have a good clubhouse, so why would you bring a guy like this into it? You've automatically made Drew Storen mad and this move is going to rub a few other guys wrong right off the bat.
Good luck with this one Rizzo, you're going to need it. I wrote two days ago about the Mets making a desperation move to acquire Tyler Clippard, but this move looks just as desperate. The Phillies had been having trouble trying to trade Papelbon since last year. Not only do you give up a top 10 prospect for him, but you guarantee his contract for next year and you make your current closer upset. Again, this has nothing to do with Papelbon the player. He's shown he's reliable. This has to do with Papelbon the person and what you've just done to Drew Storen and the rest of the clubhouse. You could have given up a lesser prospect to acquire Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, plugged him into the set up role (which is his current job where he holds a 2.27 ERA), and avoided any drama. The only way this looks like a good move at the end of the season is if it brings a World Series back to Washington. Any other result is a waste of a prospect and a waste of $11 million next year that could have been used towards trying to resign Jordan Zimmermann.
The first thing makes me mad about this deal is that Mike Rizzo has essentially told Drew Storen "Thanks for the great first half, you have 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA, but I don't trust you, so I'm demoting you." What can this guy do to keep his job? He blows a save in the 2012 NLDS and the Nationals go out and sign Rafael Soriano, which was a disaster. He blows a save in the 2014 NLDS and Rizzo says Storen is still the closer, then mid way through a career year, he brings in what could possibly be Rafael Soriano 2.0. Nothing against Jonathan Papelbon's stats, he's 17 for 17 in saves this year with a 1.59 ERA (yes, actually lower than Storen's). With that being said, he's a 34 year old reliever with diminishing velocity and he's under contract for another year for $11 million. Not to mention, $3 million of that $11 million is deferred. If Mike Rizzo doesn't stop deferring money on these contracts, then by 2020, he's going to have a payroll of $160 million, $80 million of which are players who are either retired or not on the team anymore, but I digress. As Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post pointed out, if the Nats had acquired Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, it still would have been a tough pill for Storen to swallow, but he would have accepted the demotion. Being demoted for Papelbon though isn't going to sit well. The bottom line here is you're left with a pissed off Drew Storen and an aging closer who you have to pay next year.
The second element to this is Mike Rizzo is now costing Drew Storen big time money. The salary difference between set-up guys and closers is huge. Storen doesn't become a free agent until after the 2016 season, so if the Nationals hang on to him, they're essentially reducing his value as much as they can so that he's cheaper in arbitration. When Storen goes into his final arbitration hearing this winter, he'll probably leave earning $7-8 million instead of $11-12 million that he could have been earning had he finished the year closing for the Nationals. That means he stands to lose $4-5 million because he won't be able to add to his save total for the rest of the year.
If I were Drew, I would have gone into Mike Rizzo's office yesterday right after the trade was completed and asked to be traded. This isn't about Storen being selfish, this is about Rizzo not trusting Storen. I don't ever want to work for an employer or boss that doesn't trust me, so why should Storen? This team needs Storen, so it's on Rizzo to smooth things over. Maybe he tells Storen that he's going for it all this year and just ride it out this year and then in the offseason he will trade either Storen or Papelbon. Who knows, but if Storen isn't on board, then the bullpen just got worse, not better.
Lastly, we have the diva factor. There is no arguing with how good and reliable Jonathan Papelbon has been over his career. There are some question marks about Jonathan Papelbon the person. There's no way around the fact that Papelbon has had his issues with the fans and the media. Then there's Papelbon in the clubhouse, which I can honestly say I don't know much about. Based on the fact that Papelbon would only waive his no-trade clause if he becomes the closer though, he sounds like a me-first kind of guy. Hey "Paps", you're getting traded to a contender and they've agreed to pick up your option for next year so how about you shut your mouth and pitch when you're asked to pitch. Mike Rizzo preaches all the time about having good guys in the clubhouse and wanting to build a great clubhouse. From everything I've read, the Nationals have a good clubhouse, so why would you bring a guy like this into it? You've automatically made Drew Storen mad and this move is going to rub a few other guys wrong right off the bat.
Good luck with this one Rizzo, you're going to need it. I wrote two days ago about the Mets making a desperation move to acquire Tyler Clippard, but this move looks just as desperate. The Phillies had been having trouble trying to trade Papelbon since last year. Not only do you give up a top 10 prospect for him, but you guarantee his contract for next year and you make your current closer upset. Again, this has nothing to do with Papelbon the player. He's shown he's reliable. This has to do with Papelbon the person and what you've just done to Drew Storen and the rest of the clubhouse. You could have given up a lesser prospect to acquire Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, plugged him into the set up role (which is his current job where he holds a 2.27 ERA), and avoided any drama. The only way this looks like a good move at the end of the season is if it brings a World Series back to Washington. Any other result is a waste of a prospect and a waste of $11 million next year that could have been used towards trying to resign Jordan Zimmermann.
Monday, July 27, 2015
Trade Deadline Edition
The Nationals are now 4-6 coming out of the All-Star break with a 2 game lead over the New York Mets. The hope is the Nats hover around where they are now until they can get fully healthy. Once they get healthy, hopefully in mid-August, they should be able to blow the Mets away and put the division away by around September 15th-20th. That's fully dependent on if everyone gets and stays healthy though. Not having Anthony Rendon or Denard Span in a playoff series would pretty much end the Nationals season. Those two guys mean that much to the lineup, especially when you're facing aces night in and night out. There's one other person that could end the Nationals season and he's somebody you won't even see on the field.
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
Matt Williams:
Every time I think Matt Williams has turned a corner with the bullpen, he makes a bonehead decision like he did during last Tuesday night's game against the Mets. In the 7th inning of Tuesday night's game, after a modest 88 pitches, Williams decided to take Joe Ross out of the game. He took him out of the game with a 2-1 lead and runners on second and third with no outs. After a hard hit single by Wilmer Flores, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit soft a grounder to Clint Robinson, which deflected off of his glove and into the outfield. Keep in mind, a lightly hit ball is what got the Nationals into this second and third jam. Joe Ross keeps his composure and gets Kevin Plawecki to pop out to second base. If you're a Nats fan you're thinking "Ok, we may get out of this" and if you were thinking that, you were sorely mistaken. Matt Williams after seeing two lasers off the bats of Nieuwenhuis and Plawecki that DIDN'T EVEN LEAVE THE INFIELD decided he had seen enough of Joe Ross. It was time to go get him and bring Aaron Barrett. I have two problems with this - First of all, Aaron Barrett and his 4.50 ERA haven't exactly been reliable this year. I get it, he's a ground ball pitcher, but how were you planning on turning a double play to get out of the inning anyways? Runners were on second and third, there was no force play. So you bring the infield in expecting a ground ball and that ultimately cost you the game. Just a garbage strategy. Second, Joe Ross had just gotten the previous two batters to hit balls that didn't even leave the infield. What did you see that showed you any sign of fatigue or that the Mets were starting to see him better? The correct answer is there was absolutely no reason to pull Ross. If he stays in the game and gives up a hit, then so be it, he still had a great outing. At least let the kid lose his own game, it's not like you were bringing a shutdown reliever like Aroldis Chapman in there to help minimize damage. As I've said before, I like Matt Williams the person, but I think Williams would have been better suited learning on the fly managing the Diamondbacks or a team that doesn't have as much pressure to win now. It's mistakes like these that will cost you a playoff series and I can promise you that if Matt Williams makes another decision like he did last year with Jordan Zimmermann, I'll throw my TV off the balcony and then send the Nationals the bill.
Trade Deadline:
Now for one of my personal favorite times of the year, the trade deadline. As July 31st approaches, there will be a bunch of rumors regarding just about every team in the Majors, including the Nationals. Per usual, you'll never know what's real and what's not because Mike Rizzo is one of the best in the business at holding his cards close to his chest. With that being said, it's pretty obvious what the Nationals' needs are. A super-utility player or an outfielder and a bullpen arm. There was a pretty obvious match for these needs, up until about 5 PM today. The Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane (who Mike Rizzo has made many trades with over the past few years) have Ben Zobrist and had former Nat, Tyler Clippard waiting to be shipped out.
At 5 PM today though, the Mets made a hilarious move - I can only think of one reason they did it, fear. The Mets were scared that the Nationals would re-acquire Clippard, so they made sure that didn't happen by acquiring him themselves. The Mets do not have a need for pitching, their rotation is stacked and their bullpen, before the addition of Clippard, was better than the Nats. For a team who halted trade talks with these same Athletics earlier in the year because they didn't want to take on additional salary (although they'll pay Bobby Bonilla almost $1.2 million all the way through 2035), this move screams desperation. The Mets lineup is probably one of the least frightening in baseball, so what did they do? Go get another pitcher of course! What's done is done though, so let's take a look at some other moves the Nationals may be able to pull off before Friday's deadline.
I think if the Nats are truly going for it all this year, they have to make a move for a bat/insurance option in case Rendon, Zimmerman, or somebody like that either can't come back or gets hurt again. Their bigger need at the deadline though is finding a way to get a top reliever. Getting a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman is not going to be even remotely cheap or reasonable, but if one those two can help bring a World Series to Washington, it won't matter what was given up. When I say it won't matter what was given up, I say that loosely. There are obviously players/prospects that are off limits. Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor (Beane has reportedly already asked for Taylor in a previous trade), Trea Turner (who the Padres reportedly want back in a trade for Kimbrel), Joe Ross, and Erick Fedde are off limits. Every other prospect is fair game. Would a package of AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo be enough to get somebody like Kimbrel? I'm not sure, but I think it would at least get the conversation started. As for acquiring somebody like Zobrist, I think the price tag will be similar. That may be tough to swallow because at least Kimbrel and/or Chapman would be coming with at least one more year of team control. Zobrist would be a free agent at the end of the year, but there are so many teams interested in him, the best offer is going to land him. Literally every playoff team is interested in Zobrist. He can play 5 or 6 different positions, doesn't strike out much, and he can hit in the middle of your lineup. It will take something like AJ Cole and Reynaldo Lopez (possibly another lower end prospect) to land Zobrist. If those prices are too high for Rizzo, then he's most likely not going to land an impact bat or impact reliever at the deadline. Everything we've heard this year is that the Nationals are going for it all this year. If they truly are, it's time to make sure the rest of baseball knows it, and make a big deal.
The Nats haven't been healthy all year and there's nothing to suggest that they'll ever be 100%. Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman both have nagging injuries that have bothered them all season. Getting some insurance just in case one of those two has to shut it down for the rest of the year wouldn't be a bad idea. Zobrist and Kimbrel are the best case scenario for the Nats. The more likely scenario is the Nats don't add a bat but they do add a lower caliber bullpen arm. My prediction is the Nats end up with Joaquin Benoit of the Padres. The price tag to get him will be more palatable and he will step in as the set up man for the Nats. We'll see how Rizzo plays it, but the bottom line is Rizzo needs to add to the bullpen.
Side note - The Dodgers are going to make a big move before the deadline. They'll wind up with either David Price or Cole Hamels and to be honest a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Grienke, and Price/Hamels is pretty scary. I don't want the Nats to be reactive and make a trade because of that, but it's also something to keep in mind. Lining up Scherzer, Zimmermann, and Strasburg against the Dodgers may not be enough if the Dodgers wind up with Price or Hamels. Stay tuned...
Friday, June 19, 2015
The Two I's - Inconsistent and Injured
After reeling off 21 wins in 27 games in May, the Nats have gone cold losing 14 of their past 20 games. Sure, over that 47 game span the Nats are 27-20, which is still pretty darn good. They obviously came back to life though after that 21-6 stretch in May. Even worse, the lineup is banged up and the bats are extremely inconsistent. They scored 1 run Monday, followed by a 16 run outburst on Tuesday, got shut out Wednesday, then scored 3 last night (2 were in the first inning and there were a lot of missed opportunities).
On a positive note, last night Doug Fister made his first start for the club since May 14th and Stephen Strasburg may not be too far behind him. Fister was charged with 5 runs, but he really deserved better. He pitched great through 5 innings, but just ran out of gas in the 6th. Some may say how is going 5 1/3 innings giving up 5 runs a good outing? He was sharp through 5 full innings and just got knocked around in the 6th. Once he builds up some stamina, we'll have the Doug Fister that we're used to where he goes 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Strasburg had a nice rehab outing for Harrisburg on Wednesday going 5 innings, striking out 6, walking none, and allowing 2 runs (only 1 earned). Although Tanner Roark has pitched fantastic since rejoining the rotation, the Nats miss him badly in the bullpen. Before his move to the rotation, Roark was pitching in the 7th and 8th inning and even had a save. The 7th and 8th innings for the Nationals has been a complete disaster this year. Being able to bring in Roark in the 8th inning of a 3-2 game will be a lot easier for Nationals fans to watch than seeing Aaron Barrett or Blake Treinen struggle through the inning. Nothing against Barrett or Treinen, I think both have great stuff, but Roark is flat out the better pitcher right now.
As far as the hitting and scoring runs, the Nationals are going to be streaky. That's how it is and how it always has been. This team can get hot for 2 weeks or so and score 5-6 runs per game. In those 2 weeks, they're probably going to go 8-3 or 9-2. On the flip side, they can also get ice cold and score 1-2 runs per game for 2 weeks or so. In that stretch they'll struggle to play .500 baseball. You just hope for one main thing when you're a streaky hitting ball club. You hope that when you aren't hitting, you can weather the storm (and if you're the Nats, that you get hot at the beginning of October). Not only does that put more pressure on the pitching staff to give you quality start after quality start, but it also puts pressure on the hitters to be able to play small ball. The Nationals aren't built like the Cardinals, or the Royals, or the Giants, which to be honest is a shame. It's all in the approach of some of the players though. Matt Williams has stressed since day one on the job the significance of being able to "get em on, get em over, get em in" as the saying goes. It's not because of lack of effort, it's just the type of hitters this team has. When the Nationals are fully healthy, 6 of the 8 position players have potential to hit 20+ home runs a year (the exceptions being Denard Span and Yunel Escobar). The two guys who won't hit 20 homers, are guys who can manufacture runs. The Giants, Cardinals, and Royals are all in the bottom 10 in the Majors in home runs hit, but two of the three are in first place in their division right now. The third team won the World Series last year and eliminated the Nats in the first round. These three teams can manufacture a run, they don't wait until the 7th inning when they're losing 3-1 and then come up and say well here goes nothing, I better swing for the fences. We don't know what the Nats lineup can do when they're fully healthy, but it's my hope that they can find a nice mixture between swinging for the fences and manufacturing runs. A single, followed by a bunt, followed by a single isn't flashy, but it puts a run on the board and counts the exact same as a solo home run.
It's been a rough two weeks, but the bottom line is the Nats are 34-33 and they're just 1 1/2 games out of first place. The Nats are just 1 game behind their pace last year which they won 96 games. It's hard to tell you not to panic right now, especially after seeing Bryce go down last night. They're struggling and thoughts of 2013 are running through all of our minds, but this team is too talented to not win the NL East. We saw what kind of team the Nats could be in May when they were hot. It would be nice to see some consistency though. The hot Pirates who have won 21 of their last 26 come in to town for the weekend. Without Bryce this is going to be a tough series to win, but now is as good a time as ever to see what kind of guts this team has. You have a rookie on the mound tonight, your ace tomorrow, and then Gio, who has struggled with his command all year, but when he's on, he can pitch with anyone on the Pirates, pitching on Sunday. Maybe you even switch the lineup up a bit. Call me crazy, but maybe you move Ian Desmond up to the 2nd spot and move everyone else down a spot. Ian has hit .290 this year when he's hitting second in the lineup, any other spot in the lineup he's hitting no higher than .167. He's struggling right now, but protection in the lineup can go a long way and hitting in between Denard Span and Anthony Rendon will allow him to see way better pitches than if he's hitting in between Danny Espinosa and Michael Taylor. I'm no manager, but if I had the lineup card tonight it would be 1) Span, 2) Desmond, 3) Rendon, 4) Escobar, 5) Robinson, 6) Ramos, 7) Espinosa, 8) Taylor, 9) Ross. Obviously that's assuming Bryce is out, if he's not I'd slide him in at the cleanup spot and move Escobar down to 5. We'll see what happens, just please, please don't get swept this weekend. I speak on behalf of all Nats fans when I say we won't be able to handle looking at the standings and seeing 34-36 on Monday. If that's the case there will be thoughts of 2013 haunting us every night.
On a positive note, last night Doug Fister made his first start for the club since May 14th and Stephen Strasburg may not be too far behind him. Fister was charged with 5 runs, but he really deserved better. He pitched great through 5 innings, but just ran out of gas in the 6th. Some may say how is going 5 1/3 innings giving up 5 runs a good outing? He was sharp through 5 full innings and just got knocked around in the 6th. Once he builds up some stamina, we'll have the Doug Fister that we're used to where he goes 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Strasburg had a nice rehab outing for Harrisburg on Wednesday going 5 innings, striking out 6, walking none, and allowing 2 runs (only 1 earned). Although Tanner Roark has pitched fantastic since rejoining the rotation, the Nats miss him badly in the bullpen. Before his move to the rotation, Roark was pitching in the 7th and 8th inning and even had a save. The 7th and 8th innings for the Nationals has been a complete disaster this year. Being able to bring in Roark in the 8th inning of a 3-2 game will be a lot easier for Nationals fans to watch than seeing Aaron Barrett or Blake Treinen struggle through the inning. Nothing against Barrett or Treinen, I think both have great stuff, but Roark is flat out the better pitcher right now.
As far as the hitting and scoring runs, the Nationals are going to be streaky. That's how it is and how it always has been. This team can get hot for 2 weeks or so and score 5-6 runs per game. In those 2 weeks, they're probably going to go 8-3 or 9-2. On the flip side, they can also get ice cold and score 1-2 runs per game for 2 weeks or so. In that stretch they'll struggle to play .500 baseball. You just hope for one main thing when you're a streaky hitting ball club. You hope that when you aren't hitting, you can weather the storm (and if you're the Nats, that you get hot at the beginning of October). Not only does that put more pressure on the pitching staff to give you quality start after quality start, but it also puts pressure on the hitters to be able to play small ball. The Nationals aren't built like the Cardinals, or the Royals, or the Giants, which to be honest is a shame. It's all in the approach of some of the players though. Matt Williams has stressed since day one on the job the significance of being able to "get em on, get em over, get em in" as the saying goes. It's not because of lack of effort, it's just the type of hitters this team has. When the Nationals are fully healthy, 6 of the 8 position players have potential to hit 20+ home runs a year (the exceptions being Denard Span and Yunel Escobar). The two guys who won't hit 20 homers, are guys who can manufacture runs. The Giants, Cardinals, and Royals are all in the bottom 10 in the Majors in home runs hit, but two of the three are in first place in their division right now. The third team won the World Series last year and eliminated the Nats in the first round. These three teams can manufacture a run, they don't wait until the 7th inning when they're losing 3-1 and then come up and say well here goes nothing, I better swing for the fences. We don't know what the Nats lineup can do when they're fully healthy, but it's my hope that they can find a nice mixture between swinging for the fences and manufacturing runs. A single, followed by a bunt, followed by a single isn't flashy, but it puts a run on the board and counts the exact same as a solo home run.
It's been a rough two weeks, but the bottom line is the Nats are 34-33 and they're just 1 1/2 games out of first place. The Nats are just 1 game behind their pace last year which they won 96 games. It's hard to tell you not to panic right now, especially after seeing Bryce go down last night. They're struggling and thoughts of 2013 are running through all of our minds, but this team is too talented to not win the NL East. We saw what kind of team the Nats could be in May when they were hot. It would be nice to see some consistency though. The hot Pirates who have won 21 of their last 26 come in to town for the weekend. Without Bryce this is going to be a tough series to win, but now is as good a time as ever to see what kind of guts this team has. You have a rookie on the mound tonight, your ace tomorrow, and then Gio, who has struggled with his command all year, but when he's on, he can pitch with anyone on the Pirates, pitching on Sunday. Maybe you even switch the lineup up a bit. Call me crazy, but maybe you move Ian Desmond up to the 2nd spot and move everyone else down a spot. Ian has hit .290 this year when he's hitting second in the lineup, any other spot in the lineup he's hitting no higher than .167. He's struggling right now, but protection in the lineup can go a long way and hitting in between Denard Span and Anthony Rendon will allow him to see way better pitches than if he's hitting in between Danny Espinosa and Michael Taylor. I'm no manager, but if I had the lineup card tonight it would be 1) Span, 2) Desmond, 3) Rendon, 4) Escobar, 5) Robinson, 6) Ramos, 7) Espinosa, 8) Taylor, 9) Ross. Obviously that's assuming Bryce is out, if he's not I'd slide him in at the cleanup spot and move Escobar down to 5. We'll see what happens, just please, please don't get swept this weekend. I speak on behalf of all Nats fans when I say we won't be able to handle looking at the standings and seeing 34-36 on Monday. If that's the case there will be thoughts of 2013 haunting us every night.
Friday, June 5, 2015
They're Ice Cold
Just like that, the Nats go from being on fire, to being ice cold, going 1-6 in their last 7 games. They've scored just 15 runs in those 7 games, an average of 2.14 runs per game. It doesn't matter how good your pitching staff is, you aren't going to win games when you're scoring such a small amount of runs. They have a tough schedule ahead as 12 of their next 16 games are against teams with a winning record, so they're going to have to start scoring soon. Especially since 40% of your starting rotation is currently on the DL. Sure Tanner Roark is filling in fantastically for Doug Fister, but Stephen Strasburg's spot in the rotation remains a black hole.
Anthony Rendon is back which is going to help a ton (he's already contributing as he went 2/4 in his season debut last night). The lineup may need some tweaking to spark some offense though. Ryan Zimmerman is just 3 for his last 33 which has dropped his batting average down to .217. This is a tough lineup to switch around though. You could switch Escobar and Rendon in the lineup, which would provide you with more power in the 3 spot and Rendon would still see good pitches with Bryce hitting behind him. The 5-6-7 spots are completely unproductive right now though as all 3 hitters are cold at the same time. You could move Ramos up to 5, drop Zimmerman to 6, and drop Desmond to 7. I don't know if that would do much for you though because like I said, none of those hitters are seeing the ball well right now. In two weeks, all 3 will probably be hot and this will be a non issue, but until then, this team has to figure out creative ways of scoring runs.
Now to the bigger issue. I have no clue how Matt Williams didn't get tossed last night, he kept his cool way better than I would have been able to do. I'm one of those people who usually laughs and makes fun of the fans who blame the umpire or referee for losing a game, but in this case, I'm going to be one of those fans. Marvin Hudson and Rob Drake have no business umpiring Nats games. Marvin Hudson is the umpire who tossed Bryce and Matt Williams a few weeks ago because Bryce wouldn't get back in the box (although he was in the box until Hudson started chirping at Matt Williams). He then lied and said tossing Bryce had nothing to do with not getting back in the box. Marvin Hudson is from Georgia. The Atlanta Braves play in Georgia. Marvin Hudson the Braves fan should not be allowed to umpire Nationals games. Rob Drake also tossed Bryce Harper a few weeks ago in Arizona after he rung Harper up on a check swing and refused to ask for help from the 3rd base umpire. Rob Drake also blew a big call last night and called Harper out at first on a play that Harper actually beat by about a half of a step. The bases should have been loaded with 1 out with the Nats trailing 2-1. Instead, its 2-1 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Rob Drake is from Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Pennsylvania. Rob Drake the Phillies fan should also be banned from umpiring Nationals games. As I said, Matt Williams kept his cool better than I would have. Between his challenge not being overturned and then the call against Bryce at first, I would have been hot. Dirt would be on home plate and all 3 bases would have been coming with me back to the clubhouse.
Clint Robinson then would have been able to go replace first base and get a good feel for where the base is actually located because that would come in handy in the bottom of the 9th. Clint, why are you sleeping at first in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line? Your run matters, but it isn't the main run that matters. That run belonged to Michael Taylor who was on second base and would have scored easily on a Rendon single. Thank you for walking and moving Taylor up to second, but dude, stand on first base if you have to. Don't even take a lead, I don't care. There's no reason you get picked off first by the catcher to end the game. Overall, a frustrating game. Gio turned his night around after the first inning and pitched great, the offense sputtered just like it has in the previous 10 to 15 games, there were a few bad calls, and a bonehead play to end the game.
Oh and by the way, baseball challenges are becoming a joke. Denard Span singled in the bottom of the first inning on Wednesday against Toronto. Toronto challenged and won the challenge. It was a close call, could have gone either way, but there was no disputable evidence to overturn the call. Last night, Danny Espinosa steals second, the ball beats him there by 2 steps, but Addison Russell misses the tag. Espinosa is called out and the Nationals challenge. The call stands, although there was pretty clear evidence that Danny's foot touched second base before a tag was applied. The point here - be consistent. As Scott Allen of The Washington Post pointed out today, the Nats are 3 for 9 on challenges this year, while opponents are 12 for 12. There's something going on there, those numbers should not be that skewed, especially when the rest of the league is around 40% on challenges. If you want to do it like the NFL does where there has to be indisputable evidence to overturn a call, that's fine with me. In that case, Espinosa would have remained out and on Wednesday, Span's single would have stood. However, when I see Span's single overturned and the call against Espinosa at second stand, it kind of makes me lose faith in this whole replay thing.
Anthony Rendon is back which is going to help a ton (he's already contributing as he went 2/4 in his season debut last night). The lineup may need some tweaking to spark some offense though. Ryan Zimmerman is just 3 for his last 33 which has dropped his batting average down to .217. This is a tough lineup to switch around though. You could switch Escobar and Rendon in the lineup, which would provide you with more power in the 3 spot and Rendon would still see good pitches with Bryce hitting behind him. The 5-6-7 spots are completely unproductive right now though as all 3 hitters are cold at the same time. You could move Ramos up to 5, drop Zimmerman to 6, and drop Desmond to 7. I don't know if that would do much for you though because like I said, none of those hitters are seeing the ball well right now. In two weeks, all 3 will probably be hot and this will be a non issue, but until then, this team has to figure out creative ways of scoring runs.
Now to the bigger issue. I have no clue how Matt Williams didn't get tossed last night, he kept his cool way better than I would have been able to do. I'm one of those people who usually laughs and makes fun of the fans who blame the umpire or referee for losing a game, but in this case, I'm going to be one of those fans. Marvin Hudson and Rob Drake have no business umpiring Nats games. Marvin Hudson is the umpire who tossed Bryce and Matt Williams a few weeks ago because Bryce wouldn't get back in the box (although he was in the box until Hudson started chirping at Matt Williams). He then lied and said tossing Bryce had nothing to do with not getting back in the box. Marvin Hudson is from Georgia. The Atlanta Braves play in Georgia. Marvin Hudson the Braves fan should not be allowed to umpire Nationals games. Rob Drake also tossed Bryce Harper a few weeks ago in Arizona after he rung Harper up on a check swing and refused to ask for help from the 3rd base umpire. Rob Drake also blew a big call last night and called Harper out at first on a play that Harper actually beat by about a half of a step. The bases should have been loaded with 1 out with the Nats trailing 2-1. Instead, its 2-1 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Rob Drake is from Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Pennsylvania. Rob Drake the Phillies fan should also be banned from umpiring Nationals games. As I said, Matt Williams kept his cool better than I would have. Between his challenge not being overturned and then the call against Bryce at first, I would have been hot. Dirt would be on home plate and all 3 bases would have been coming with me back to the clubhouse.
Clint Robinson then would have been able to go replace first base and get a good feel for where the base is actually located because that would come in handy in the bottom of the 9th. Clint, why are you sleeping at first in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line? Your run matters, but it isn't the main run that matters. That run belonged to Michael Taylor who was on second base and would have scored easily on a Rendon single. Thank you for walking and moving Taylor up to second, but dude, stand on first base if you have to. Don't even take a lead, I don't care. There's no reason you get picked off first by the catcher to end the game. Overall, a frustrating game. Gio turned his night around after the first inning and pitched great, the offense sputtered just like it has in the previous 10 to 15 games, there were a few bad calls, and a bonehead play to end the game.
Oh and by the way, baseball challenges are becoming a joke. Denard Span singled in the bottom of the first inning on Wednesday against Toronto. Toronto challenged and won the challenge. It was a close call, could have gone either way, but there was no disputable evidence to overturn the call. Last night, Danny Espinosa steals second, the ball beats him there by 2 steps, but Addison Russell misses the tag. Espinosa is called out and the Nationals challenge. The call stands, although there was pretty clear evidence that Danny's foot touched second base before a tag was applied. The point here - be consistent. As Scott Allen of The Washington Post pointed out today, the Nats are 3 for 9 on challenges this year, while opponents are 12 for 12. There's something going on there, those numbers should not be that skewed, especially when the rest of the league is around 40% on challenges. If you want to do it like the NFL does where there has to be indisputable evidence to overturn a call, that's fine with me. In that case, Espinosa would have remained out and on Wednesday, Span's single would have stood. However, when I see Span's single overturned and the call against Espinosa at second stand, it kind of makes me lose faith in this whole replay thing.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Dominated by Three Rookies
That was just an abysmal series in Cincinnati this weekend. Three rookie pitchers for the Reds beat the Nationals this weekend. Michael Lorenzen, who pitched today for the Reds, probably should have given up about 4-5 runs today, instead his final line was 6 1/3 innings pitched, 2 earned runs, 1 (ONE) hit, 6 (SIX) walks, and 4 strikeouts. Yeah the guy walked 6 batters and really should have walked more, but the Nats inability to be patient at the plate allowed him to work into the 7th inning only allowing one hit. What a joke. Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both came up hacking on the first pitch right after Lorenzen had issued a 4 pitch walk to the previous batter. In both situations, runners were on first and second. Isn't it common baseball knowledge that when a guy is having trouble throwing strikes, you don't swing at the first pitch, you make him throw you strikes? Don't help a guy out when he's struggling, especially when you have a chance to score some runs if you're patient.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
The hitting was pretty bad, but that's been the case for the past 10 games now. The Nats have scored more than 3 runs just 2 times in their last 10 games. That has to improve, but just two weeks ago, the Nats had a high scoring potent offense. I understand the offensive production will fluctuate a bit. However, when that's the case, the pitching has to come through. Besides Strasburg, who was finally placed on the DL, the starting pitching has done its job. The bullpen and bullpen management on the other hand, was nothing short of atrocious this series against the Reds. Taylor Jordan came in and did a great job in relief of Strasburg on Friday night, but his final pitching line doesn't tell the whole story, His final line was 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. He left having given up only two of those runs though. A struggling Aaron Barrett was brought into a 3-2 game to help get the Reds an insurance run. Barrett's ERA in May was 8.10, he can't get anybody out right now, especially not in a big situation. So why is he pitching in a close game? It happened again today, the Nats tied the game in the top of the 7th and Barrett came in and promptly blew the game wide open. Sure, Matt Grace had something to do with that, but Barrett had no business being in either of those games based on how much he's been struggling. Casey Janssen blew the Nats lead in yesterday's game by giving up a 4 run 8th inning. The bullpen is completely undependable right now.
The bottom line is the bullpen needs help. That's why this isn't all on Matt Williams. Using Barrett in big situations while he's clearly struggling, that's on Williams. Not having many reliable bullpen options, that's on Mike Rizzo. I don't think I've ever written a bad thing about Rizzo, I'm a firm believer that he's one of the best in the game at what he does. This bullpen isn't going to cut it though. Losing Craig Stammen was a huge blow to the bullpen. Putting Tanner Roark in the rotation was another blow to the bullpen. Add in that Tyler Clippard was traded this past offseason and you essentially have Drew Storen, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, and then a whole bunch of rookies or second year guys. When you're aspiring to be a World Series contender, you can't have 4 rookies/second year guys in your bullpen and just hope it works out. It's early for trades to start happening, but I think it's time to pull the trigger on a bullpen piece. Not many teams are going to admit that they're selling this early, but one of the teams that may not be too far away from a fire sale is the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, the same Athletics that Tyler Clippard plays for. I don't know what it would cost the Nats to re-acquire Clip, but it's definitely worth picking up the phone and calling Billy Beane to see what he'd want. I probably wouldn't give up a top 10 prospect to get him, but a top 20 prospect in the Nats system seems reasonable.
There's no need to panic following a horrific three game series against a struggling Reds team (they were 1-10 in their past 11 games). Anthony Rendon is on his way back (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) and Doug Fister should be back sometime in June. That gives the lineup and rotation a boost, but the bullpen has no help in sight. Unfortunately, it has the potential to keep costing the Nats games, so it's something that we can only hope is addressed sooner rather than later.
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