The Winter Meetings are officially concluding today in Nashville and the Nationals still have a ton of work to do. If you had told me (or Mike Rizzo for that matter) that the Nationals would leave the Winter Meetings with Yusmeiro Petit as their prize free agent signing, I wouldn't have been too happy. Only walking away with Petit is not for lack of effort, though. The Nationals were one of the finalists to land a personal favorite of mine, Ben Zobrist. In fact, reports have said that the Nationals made the highest contract offer to Zobrist, but in the end, Zobrist wanted to be reunited with his former manager, Joe Maddon. After swinging and missing on Zobrist and Darren O'Day (don't even get me started), Mike Rizzo is still left with some big question marks, both in the bullpen and in the lineup.
Actually, I can't help myself on the Darren O'Day thing. Peter Angelos is a complete tool and probably the worst owner in baseball. He's got money he hasn't even folded yet from this MASN deal, yet he makes sure the Orioles operate like a small market team. He sees the Nationals have interest in one of his free agents and lo and behold, there's Pete swooping in at the last minute to make sure the Nationals don't get a deal done. He offers Chris Davis a contract for a day, then takes it off the table. It reminds me a lot of his contract offer to Mark Teixeira in 2008. The Orioles offered Teixeira 7 years and $150 million. That offer was immediately shot down by Teixeira's agent, Scott Boras, and Teixeira ended up signing an 8 year $180 million contract with the Yankees. Angelos likes to put on a show for Orioles fans, he likes to tease them a little bit. He makes an offer to a big name player, an offer that he knows isn't market value, then tells fans that he tried. Well, I guess he did try, just not very hard. I truly don't care about the Orioles, it doesn't matter to me whether they win 100 games or win 60 games, but for the sake of Orioles fans around the country, Angelos has got to go.
The Nationals have already made three additions to a bullpen that needed a major overhaul this offseason. Last week, the Nationals signed Oliver Perez to a two year, seven million dollar deal. Perez is a nice lefty to have come out of the bullpen and over the past three seasons, he's struck out over ten batters per nine innings. Another reliever, Shawn Kelley, who the Nationals have reportedly signed to a one year deal, also has struck out over ten batters per nine innings over the past three seasons. Those are impressive numbers and ones that will definitely help the Nationals bullpen, but it still doesn't answer the biggest question. Who is going to set up and who is going to close games? Rizzo insists that he's more than happy to go into next season with Storen setting up and Papelbon closing, but how are you seriously going to welcome Papelbon back after last year? On top of that, Drew Storen has no interest in being here anymore, and I don't blame him. He puts together a dominant first half as the closer and then gets replaced at the trade deadline by a psychopath.
I'm obviously a fan of making up my own deals that I'd like to see happen, but that have a very slim chance of happening. About a month ago, I thought to myself signing Mike Leake would be a good move for the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg is a year away from free agency, and Leake will come somewhat cheap, while eating up some innings for you. I'm still not opposed to signing Leake, but there are a few other directions in which the Nationals could go. Here 's the dream scenario:
1.) The Nationals sign Jason Heyward for 9 years and $190 million with a player opt-out clause after 4 years. The contract is essentially a 4 year $96 million deal (average annual value of $24 million for Heyward) and would allow him to hit free agency again when he turns 30 years old. The Nats in turn get a left handed lead off hitter that plays excellent defense, while not tying up too much money when it's time to offer Bryce $400 million and 30% ownership in the team (keep in mind, Werth's contract is up in two years too), but that's besides the point. This also allows the Nationals to make their next move...
2.) The Nationals trade Michael A. Taylor and Drew Storen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi and Jake McGee. I have no clue why the Rays would make this trade, but Mike Rizzo has been known to surprise before, so let's just imagine that he does. Now the Nationals have freed up the $8.5 million that Storen would be making this upcoming season while acquiring a player who is in his second year of arbitration (McGee, who will probably bring home about $4.5 million) and for a starting pitcher who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Now the Nationals have a dominant set up man or closer, whichever spot you'd prefer to use McGee in. McGee has a 2.77 career ERA and has struck out 319 batters in 259 2/3 innings. Getting Odorizzi is a big piece to this though because Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after next season, so Odorizzi provides some insurance should Stras leave. Side note, there's no reason why Strasburg wouldn't leave. Next year's starting pitching market is one of the worst of all time. Stras should have no problem getting $200+ million, but it won't be from the Nationals. The Nationals may consider even trading him this offseason, but only if somebody is willing to give up major league ready pitching for him. Speaking of major league ready pitching, may the Nationals will trade some of it to.....
3.) The Nationals trade AJ Cole and Wilmer Difo to the Cincinnati Reds for Aroldis Chapman. Yeah, I'm going to get some backlash on this one....but I already know that. Here's the deal, the Nats need a bullpen makeover and there are no relievers in free agency that can close games. The only ones available via trade are Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller at this point. Andrew Miller would probably cost the Nationals Strasburg, so why not dangle two top 10 prospects in front of the Reds and see if they take it? Chapman's price is surely ten times lower than it was on Monday morning, so this offer may get the job done. Dusty Baker managed Chapman with the Reds a few years ago, so maybe Dusty can help get this guy's life on track. Trading for Chapman doesn't make what he did ok. Hell, the guy may even be suspended by Major League Baseball for half the year or end up in jail for a period of time and this deal turns out to be a bust. Your other option right now though is Jonathan Papelbon and he isn't exactly a Saint, either.
In the end, the Nationals are spending an additional $24.5 million next year (if you include shedding Yunel Escobar's contract) for Jason Heyward and a dominant bullpen. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the Nationals will also most likely trade Jonathan Papelbon. The problem is, they are most likely going to have to eat most of his $11 million contract for next year, so I'm not going to include any money saved on him for now. Here's how the lineup, rotation, and bullpen could look in this scenario:
Lineup:
1.) Jason Heyward, CF
2.) Jayson Werth, RF
3.) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4.) Bryce Harper, LF
5.) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
6.) Wilson Ramos, C
7.) Danny Espinosa, 2B
8.) Trea Turner, SS
9.) Max Scherzer, P
Rotation:
1.) Max Scherzer
2.) Stephen Strasburg
3.) Jake Odorizzi
4.) Gio Gonzalez
5.) Tanner Roark/Joe Ross
Bullpen:
1.) Yusmeiro Petit
2.) Felipe Rivero
3.) Shawn Kelley
4.) Oliver Perez
5.) Trevor Gott
6.) Jake McGee
7.) Aroldis Chapman, Closer
Yes, you're seeing that right, there is one returning player coming back to the Nationals bullpen. After what we had to go through last year, that's exactly how it should be. The lineup may not be as impressive as it has in years past, but putting Heyward up top and having Turner's speed at the bottom will definitely help the Nationals score some runs. The rotation is as good as usual and if you can get games to the eighth inning with a lead, I'd take my chances with McGee and Chapman against any team.
