Why the Man Crush?

Give me a break. Go ahead and ask Thom Loverro, Bob Nightengale, and Jon Heyman among many others what they thought about the Nationals’ decision to not bring Dusty Baker back next season. Just go ahead and ask them, I dare you. You’ll leave the conversation thinking that the Nationals front office just stabbed Babe Ruth in the throat with a dirty pair of scissors. But no that’s not what happened, they just let Dusty Baker’s contract expire, that’s all. Did the Nationals handle Dusty’s departure correctly? No, not by any means. They let him hang around D.C. for seven days after the season ended, expecting that an extension would be reached, then let him go back to California only to inform him he had been let go. But that’s not Loverro, Nightengale, or Heyman’s gripe. Their gripe is that Dusty Baker does not have a job. I’m sick of it. If you didn’t watch the Nationals for at least 100+ games during the regular season and catch every single postseason game, then your opinion is completely irrelevant. That makes all but one of those guys (Loverro) irrelevant in this conversation. I’m fairly certain that Loverro has a huge man crush on Dusty Baker, so he is essentially irrelevant as well.

Dusty Baker does not have a job on October 27, 2017 because of his inability to manage in the playoffs. It is not because Dusty Baker is a bad manager. In fact, the Nationals will probably never find another manager who can navigate his way through a 162-game season the way Baker can. They will probably never find another manager who is capable of connecting with the players and the media at a level that Baker can. But Dusty Baker led the Nationals one game further than his predecessor, Matt Williams, who was a complete disaster and is completely incapable of managing a Major League Baseball team. Baker did not get this team to a National League Championship Series, he did not get this team to a World Series. In fact, I wrote a week ago about how inept Dusty is at managing in the playoffs. He manages playoff games the same way he would manage a regular season game on May 27th against the Padres. He, among other things, decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo multiple times with first base open and use Sammy Solis in extremely big parts of games. But Joe Torre and Major League Baseball dropped a bomb on us last night. Enjoy that right here. THAT is why Dusty Baker does not have a job.

But nobody wants to talk about Dusty’s mistakes. They want to talk about how great of a guy he is. Which is fine, but there are a lot of great guys in baseball that deserve managerial jobs. So now, we’re here watching as the Nationals get crucified for a managerial decision that is eerily similar to the Red Sox firing of John Ferrell or the Yankees dismissal of Joe Girardi. Oh wait, no it’s not, both of those guys won World Series championships for their respective clubs. But neither of them are as friendly or have the baseball pedigree of Dusty Baker, so it’s ok that they were let go. It’s asinine. For parts of the Nationals-Cubs series, the players failed Dusty Baker, but in Game 5, Dusty Baker failed the players. It’s ok that none of the big-time sports writers want to discuss that though.

The Nationals ownership group has a history of being noncommittal to managers. It’s who they are, it’s what they believe in. I wrote about it almost two years ago to the day (check it out if you want). It’s the reason that Dusty Baker was the Nationals manager in the first place after they offered a 1 year $1.6 million contract to Bud Black. I mean, did they really think Black was going to say “Ok, sounds like a fair deal”? So we’re back to where we were following the 2013 season, and back to where we were following the 2015 season. This time, the Lerners have a chance to make it right. It’s time to show baseball that you do value managers and that you’re willing to make a commitment to the position. Joseph Elliott Girardi was let go by the New York Yankees yesterday morning. He is the exact man that the Nationals need to lead them to the next level. Don’t get me wrong, if Girardi doesn’t want the job and wants to sit out a year or two to spend time with his family, then that’s his choice to make. I’m sure that Dave Martinez (believed to be the Nationals top candidate as of yesterday) will make a fine manager. But the Lerners and Mike Rizzo must circle Joe Girardi’s name and say this is our guy.  Fly him out to DC on a private plane, wine and dine him, and offer him the job. If he declines, you move on knowing that you made your pitch. A pitch which will have included a four-year contract offer. A pitch which will have included a $4-5 million per year salary. The Lerners agreed to pay Joe Blanton $4 million last season, I’m sure they can splurge and pay a guy like Girardi the same.

In 2015, the Nationals needed the anti-Matt Williams and Dusty Baker fit the role well, restoring peace to the Nationals clubhouse. The Nationals don't need an anti-Dusty Baker, which is good because Joe Girardi isn't an anti-Dusty Baker, but the two are still very different. Both are extremely hard-working men and love what they do. Both are extremely well prepared. Both know and understand the game. Both are well respected by their players. But, while Dusty Baker manages every game like it’s May 27th, former Yankee, Mark Teixeira, was quoted in the New York post as saying “He (Girardi) manages every game like its Game 7.” The Nationals need somebody like that. They need intensity. They need urgency. Will Bryce Harper be here in 2019? Odds are, no he won’t, so it’s time to put the pedal to the metal.

GO GET JOE GIRARDI.

Potentially Franchise Altering Offseason

I figured I would let a couple of days pass before circling back around. I’ve been relentless on managers since I started writing. At the time, who could blame me, Matt Williams was the man at the helm just making poor decision after poor decision. There is no doubt about it, we’ve come a long way since then. Dusty Baker has been an immeasurable upgrade over Matt Williams. The players respect him and he’s a winner, at least in the regular season he is. But is Dusty the man who can lead the Nationals to the NLCS or even possibly the World Series? It’s truly debatable. There are those who love Dusty, both inside the clubhouse and out and think he is the guy who can lead this team to the next level. Then there are those who think if this team wants to take the next step, he’s got to go. I lean more towards the latter, but regardless of that, I’m fairly certain Dusty will end up back in the dugout for another year or two.

There are a couple of issues that make this a complex situation. First and foremost, if this team wasn’t entering the biggest offseason of their 12-year existence, this would be a no brainer, Dusty Baker would be back probably under a two or three-year contract. With Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Madson, among others, set to leave after the 2018 season, the Nationals have one more shot to bring a World Series back to Washington.

Which brings us to the Cubs series last week, which if you watched, you would have seen that Dusty Baker made a couple of terrible moves in pivotal moments, especially in Games 3 and 5. We touched on Dusty’s mistakes in Game 3 last week. He opted not to walk Anthony Rizzo with first base open and a runner in scoring position. In this situation, it wasn’t that he necessarily had the wrong pitcher out there to face Rizzo (we’ll get to that in a second), it was that he didn’t want to walk Rizzo and instead face Willson Contreras. Rizzo had already burned Dusty in Game 1. Contreras at that point in the series was 1 for 6, not to mention, Contreras was 0 for 5 career against our entire bullpen. That’s a very small sample size, but I’ll still take my chances. Instead, Oliver Perez faces Rizzo, Rizzo bloops in a single, screams about how he wants to be respected, and the Cubs win a game that Max Scherzer had a no hitter going into the 7th inning. But wait, let’s backtrack a second. Remember I said Oliver Perez wasn’t necessarily the wrong choice to face Rizzo? Well, he wasn’t. Rizzo was 2 for 7 against Perez, so Perez has had some success, the problem was, Rizzo was 0 for 3 combined against Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle, who also happen to be the Nationals three best relievers. It would be one thing if this were the only time Dusty did this, but in the 7th inning of a 1-0 game, Dusty decided he needed to bring in a left hander to face Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber had hit a rocket off of Max Scherzer in his prior at bat, so I’m actually with Dusty on this one. With the game on the line, he had to go get Max. But, again, instead of going to one of his top three relievers, Dusty goes to Sammy Solis, who doesn’t belong in a tie game, or a game in which the Nationals are leading. Joe Maddon counters with the right-handed Albert Almora, and Almora comes up with the big hit to tie the game. Almora hit .342 against left handers in 2017. When you went to a lefty, did you really think Maddon would leave the left handed hitting Schwarber in there? You couldn’t have. Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson most likely get you out of that inning without any damage being done. Schwarber was 0 for 2 with a strikeout against Madson for those wondering, although he had never faced Kintzler. Dusty didn’t stop there though, in an 8-6 game on Thursday, his confusing loyalty to Sammy Solis reared its ugly head again. Solis was called on to pitch the 7th inning and after getting one out, he gave up a rocket single off the wall to Schwarber - what a coincidence since in Game 3 Dusty wanted Solis to face Schwarber but Maddon pulled Schwarber in favor of Albert Almora – followed by another hit by Jon Jay. It’s astounding that in huge spots, not once, but twice, Dusty used his seventh best bullpen option instead of going to one of his top three options.

Sure, the bats didn’t come alive until the 8^th inning of Games 2 and 4 and then throughout Game 5, but the Cubs had the same problem. In close games like the Nationals and Cubs played in all 5 games, managing and umpiring is under the microscope. Fortunately, the umpiring wasn’t terrible until Game 5. Unfortunately, in Game 5 both the umpiring and Dusty’s managing were questionable at best.

That leaves us here, trying to figure out what minor adjustments need to be made to make sure the outcome is different next year. As I said, the Dusty situation is tricky. Who can Mike Rizzo bring in that could do a better job? There aren’t a whole lot of options as far as experienced managers go. You could take a look at John Farrell, who was just fired by the Boston Red Sox. He’s won a World Series, but he’s also been bounced from the playoffs in the first round the past two years. Not to mention, there are rumors coming out of Boston that the clubhouse didn’t like him and lost respect for him. After the Matt Williams debacle, I can’t imagine Mike Rizzo hiring somebody who has had problems with a clubhouse. Then you have Ron Gardenhire, who was considered for the job two years ago before Dusty was hired. Gardenhire is fine, but he’s no better than Dusty. He may actually be slightly worse. He has less playoff success than Dusty, which I didn’t even realize was possible. My favorite candidate is Joe Girardi. But who’s to say Girardi leaves New York? They have a more promising future than New York, and if he wants the chance to manage Bryce Harper, he can just wait another year. If Girardi happens to step down at the end of the season, I don’t see him taking another job immediately, which is a bummer for Washington, because he’s the perfect guy for the job. The last experienced candidate that could be considered is Mike Redmond, who managed an absolute dog mess of a Marlins team to a 77-85 record in 2014. Redmond has no playoff experience though, so is he necessarily a better option than Dusty? Probably not. Short of Joe Girardi, there are no experienced managers out there who are an upgrade over Dusty. You could take a shot in the dark like the Dodgers did two years ago and go with Alex Cora or Dave Martinez. It turned into gold for the Dodgers, but who’s to say it would work for the Nats? Expect Dusty to be back. It’s nothing to be excited about, but it’s also not the worst thing.

Besides Dusty, the next biggest thing facing the Nationals this offseason is whether or not they able to resign anybody set to hit free agency next year? Bryce Harper already has one foot out the door, Gio Gonzalez is most likely gone as well. But can the Nationals extend Daniel Murphy for another year or two? Going into the final season of a 3 year $37.5 million deal, would Murph take a 2 year $30 million extension to stay with the Nats? It’s definitely something to explore. Notice I said Bryce Harper has one foot out the door. Expect Mike Rizzo to quietly shop Bryce at the Winter Meetings and throughout the offseason. Would the loser of the ALCS, either Houston or New York, make an offer that Mike Rizzo can’t refuse and go all in for one year? Could Rizzo turn down an Astros offer centered around their top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and Derek Fisher, who made his Major League debut this year? What if the Yankees offered Dellin Betances and top prospect Clint Frazier, who also made his Major League debut this year. I don’t know that either of those teams make an offer that strong, but if they do, I would expect to see Bryce Harper in another uniform next season. Unless the Lerners and Mike Rizzo get some sort of sign from Scott Boras that Bryce Harper is interested in staying in Washington past this season, you have to consider dealing him. If you’re Mike Rizzo, you’re at a crossroads. Bryce Harper surely can help you win a World Series, but you also don’t want to let him walk away and get nothing in return. This team is good enough to win the division without Bryce Harper, but is it good enough to win in the playoffs without him? Insert Victor Robles and it just might be.

Same Nats, Different Year

They’re about to do it again. They’re about to make it four straight divisional round exits. It seems like it’s about that time to just say “hey, this team isn’t built to win”. You can point to the 95, 96, 97, and 98 win seasons that say otherwise. But you can’t ignore the facts and the facts are that this team as constructed can win in the regular season, but can’t win in the playoffs.

Year in and year out, the bats are to blame. They have a bunch of .300 hitters during the regular season, and then when they playoffs roll around they become .100 hitters. Go ahead, let me hear it, “it’s a small sample size”, “it’s under a microscope”, “these guys hit .100 during stretches of the regular season too, but as a whole they are .300 hitters.” Quite frankly, I don’t care. I don’t care if you hit .235 during the regular season if you can hit .300 in the playoffs. This is where stars are made, and quite frankly, the Nationals don’t have any stars. The Nationals lineup, which I’m 100% certain will not change for Game 4 is hitting .000, .167, .100, .091, .250, .100, .000, and .250. That’s right, two players (Trea Turner and Matt Wieters) don’t even have a hit, while three others have one hit each. Absolutely pathetic. Some will point to the Cubs and say “well they aren’t hitting either”, but they are. They’re hitting when it matters. Kris Bryant is hitting. 273 and Anthony Rizzo is hitting .333 for the series driving in six of the Cubs eight runs this series. You can’t win a ballgame unless you hit and score some runs. Since 2012, the Washington Nationals are averaging 3.3 runs per game in 17 games (3.1 runs per game if you take into account that Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS went 18 innings and the Nationals scored 1 run). This includes last year’s series against the Dodgers where the bats did come alive somewhat and we scored 4.8 runs per game. Take that series out and the number goes down to 2.66 runs per game in 12 games. The Nationals aren’t the only ones facing playoff pitching at this point in the year, but they are sure as hell the only ones who are scared of hitting playoff pitching at this point in the year.

Not scoring is the number one reason the Washington Nationals will not advance past the Divisional Round for the fourth straight try. Dusty Baker is the other reason why they will not advance. I’m going to hear it for this one too, “managers are just a scapegoat, the players need to perform.” Hey, guess what, like I said above, I DON’T CARE. If this team were losing 8-0, it wouldn’t be Dusty’s fault and Dusty would be a scapegoat. But in tie games and games decided by one run, the manager’s decisions are pivotal to the outcome of a game. A good manager goes unnoticed, a lot like a good umpire. The Nationals have never had what I would consider a good manager. Dusty Baker will never be able to explain to me or to any Nationals fan for that matter why not once, not twice, but three times he decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo with the game on the line. Rizzo burned him all three times. It’s inexcusable. Dusty’s reasoning was that Willson Contreras, who was on deck, could also burn the Nationals. Sure, Dusty. I guess technically that’s true. Just like Joe Maddon could have sent Kyle Hendricks up as a pinch hitter for Willson Contreras and he could have driven a run in! It could technically happen! But if you look at Willson’s career numbers against the Nationals bullpen, he is 0 for 5 with a strikeout, collectively, against Matt Albers, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Enny Romero, and Sammy Solis. Literally take your choice of any of those guys, and you give yourself a better shot at winning than if you face Anthony Rizzo. Instead, Dusty continues to manage like it’s 1985 and go to his lefty lefty matchup instead of looking at the statistics and the splits. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker never has and never will win a World Series.