Spring Training is in full swing now and games are set to begin today when the Nationals travel to Port Charlotte to take on the Rays. Really, all that we can hope for this Spring is to stay healthy. Last Spring, the Nationals left Viera with Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Casey Janssen all headed to the disabled list. A couple things to keep an eye on during Spring Training:
1) Where is Dusty going to hit Bryce Harper and who is going to protect him in the lineup? I'd be shocked if Bryce hit fourth, but it depends on how Dusty likes to structure his lineup. By putting Bryce third instead of fourth, Bryce will get more at bats throughout the course of the year. It will also allow Dusty to balance the lineup out by going Revere (left handed), Rendon/Werth (right haneded), Bryce (left handed). That brings us to the next point, who hits in front of Bryce. The Nationals have a real luxury here this year. If Anthony Rendon is healthy, he's obviously the front runner to hit second. He gets on base, hits for some power, and is a bat that pitchers can't overlook with Bryce on deck. You could also go Jayson Werth here. Sure he had an awful year last year, but the reason he's an option is because he sees A TON of pitches and gets on base. He's probably the most capable number two hitter if Dusty wants to do a lot of hit and runs with Ben Revere on first. Daniel Murphy is the last option to hit second, however, if he's hitting second, the Nationals would start their lineup with three left handed hitters in a row. You probably don't want to do that. Murphy is an option though because he puts the ball in play at such a high clip. In putting Revere and Murphy first and second you would have two of the highest contact guys in the Major Leagues last year. My prediction is Dusty goes Revere, Rendon, then Bryce, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went with Werth to hit second either.
2) What's going to happen with the rotation? Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez have locked up the first three spots in the rotation, but the last two are there for the taking between three guys. It would be a big upset if Joe Ross didn't end up with one of the spots, but if Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker wanted to go with the two older guys and save Ross for a June/July call up they could hypothetically do that. Assuming Ross takes the fourth spot though, the fifth spot would come down to Tanner Roark and Bronson Arroyo. This is a tough one, although I wish it weren't. Tanner deserves a spot in this rotation. He deserved a spot in the rotation last year, there just wasn't any room. However, Arroyo and Dusty Baker are good friends from their days together in Cincinnati. Arroyo is also said to be a great clubhouse presence and no matter what any of us want to think, the Nationals need that. As long as Arroyo is healthy, my prediction is that Tanner puts up better stats in Spring Training, but Dusty Baker goes with Arroyo for the fifth spot and Tanner heads back to the bullpen.
3) Speaking of the bullpen, it's going to be interesting to see what Dusty Baker decides to do with the final few spots. It looks like Jonathan Papelbon, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, and Yusmeiro Petit are the locks to make the bullpen. That most likely leaves three open spots. Trevor Gott and Felipe Rivero are as close to locks as it gets, but the Nationals can still option both of them to the minors, so I wouldn't quite put them in the lock category. The last spot is Blake Treinen's spot to lose. Keep in mind though, Treinen has options too and Dusty has a lot of tough decisions to make. He has Bronson Arroyo, Burke Badenhop, Sean Burnett and Matt Belisle in Viera. Arroyo and Belisle played for him with the Reds. If Arroyo breaks camp as the fifth starter, then Tanner Roark gets that last spot and Treinen heads to the minors. If Arroyo doesn't make the team, Treinen most likely wins the last spot, but don't be surprised if Badenhop or Belisle steal the last spot from him. Dusty Baker is notorious for favoring veterans over younger guys, so don't be surprised if some of the younger guys get sent to the minors and more veterans make the team.
4) Is it going to be Danny Espinosa, Stephen Drew, or Trea Turner at shortstop to open up the season? I think all Nationals fans and probably even most of the Nationals front office want Trea Turner to win the job, but that's probably not going to happen. Unfortunately, even if Turner hits .400 and plays great defense this Spring, Mike Rizzo is going to have to be thinking about the business side of this. If the Nationals keep Turner in the minors until late May or early June, they control him for another year. Mike Rizzo did the same thing with Bryce Harper in 2012. Its also the same reason Kris Bryant didn't make the Cubs opening day roster last year but was called up two weeks into the season. It may not be fair to the player, but it's part of the game and the Nationals and Nationals fans will benefit in the long run by stashing Turner in the Minors for 6 weeks or so. That leaves Espinosa as the favorite to win the job. Unless Stephen Drew reverts back to the player he was with the Diamondbacks, I expect him to be nothing more than a left handed bat off the bench that will be good for a few spot starts here and there.
5) The most intriguing player in Nationals Spring Training right now is Lucas Giolito. He's not going to make the opening day roster, but I can't wait to see him pitch. Remember when the Mets had Matt Harvey and Jacob de Grom in the rotation last year and we were thinking "Ok there's no way they have anybody else like these two" and then they brought up Noah Syndergaard? It's the Nationals turn to play that card. In late June/early July, if any one of Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, or Bronson Arroyo/Tanner Roark are struggling, expect to see Giolito make his debut. A rotation headlined by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Lucas Giolito could make for an incredibly exciting NL East division race.
We may not see a regular lineup until a week or two into Spring Training games, possibly longer. Dusty needs to manager Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth's health and make sure they're 100% ready to go for Opening Day. If that means that they only play 10 games or so in Spring Training, then so be it. If the Nationals are going to make the playoffs this season, it will be because their key guys stayed healthy for the majority of the season.
