Why the Man Crush?

Give me a break. Go ahead and ask Thom Loverro, Bob Nightengale, and Jon Heyman among many others what they thought about the Nationals’ decision to not bring Dusty Baker back next season. Just go ahead and ask them, I dare you. You’ll leave the conversation thinking that the Nationals front office just stabbed Babe Ruth in the throat with a dirty pair of scissors. But no that’s not what happened, they just let Dusty Baker’s contract expire, that’s all. Did the Nationals handle Dusty’s departure correctly? No, not by any means. They let him hang around D.C. for seven days after the season ended, expecting that an extension would be reached, then let him go back to California only to inform him he had been let go. But that’s not Loverro, Nightengale, or Heyman’s gripe. Their gripe is that Dusty Baker does not have a job. I’m sick of it. If you didn’t watch the Nationals for at least 100+ games during the regular season and catch every single postseason game, then your opinion is completely irrelevant. That makes all but one of those guys (Loverro) irrelevant in this conversation. I’m fairly certain that Loverro has a huge man crush on Dusty Baker, so he is essentially irrelevant as well.

Dusty Baker does not have a job on October 27, 2017 because of his inability to manage in the playoffs. It is not because Dusty Baker is a bad manager. In fact, the Nationals will probably never find another manager who can navigate his way through a 162-game season the way Baker can. They will probably never find another manager who is capable of connecting with the players and the media at a level that Baker can. But Dusty Baker led the Nationals one game further than his predecessor, Matt Williams, who was a complete disaster and is completely incapable of managing a Major League Baseball team. Baker did not get this team to a National League Championship Series, he did not get this team to a World Series. In fact, I wrote a week ago about how inept Dusty is at managing in the playoffs. He manages playoff games the same way he would manage a regular season game on May 27th against the Padres. He, among other things, decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo multiple times with first base open and use Sammy Solis in extremely big parts of games. But Joe Torre and Major League Baseball dropped a bomb on us last night. Enjoy that right here. THAT is why Dusty Baker does not have a job.

But nobody wants to talk about Dusty’s mistakes. They want to talk about how great of a guy he is. Which is fine, but there are a lot of great guys in baseball that deserve managerial jobs. So now, we’re here watching as the Nationals get crucified for a managerial decision that is eerily similar to the Red Sox firing of John Ferrell or the Yankees dismissal of Joe Girardi. Oh wait, no it’s not, both of those guys won World Series championships for their respective clubs. But neither of them are as friendly or have the baseball pedigree of Dusty Baker, so it’s ok that they were let go. It’s asinine. For parts of the Nationals-Cubs series, the players failed Dusty Baker, but in Game 5, Dusty Baker failed the players. It’s ok that none of the big-time sports writers want to discuss that though.

The Nationals ownership group has a history of being noncommittal to managers. It’s who they are, it’s what they believe in. I wrote about it almost two years ago to the day (check it out if you want). It’s the reason that Dusty Baker was the Nationals manager in the first place after they offered a 1 year $1.6 million contract to Bud Black. I mean, did they really think Black was going to say “Ok, sounds like a fair deal”? So we’re back to where we were following the 2013 season, and back to where we were following the 2015 season. This time, the Lerners have a chance to make it right. It’s time to show baseball that you do value managers and that you’re willing to make a commitment to the position. Joseph Elliott Girardi was let go by the New York Yankees yesterday morning. He is the exact man that the Nationals need to lead them to the next level. Don’t get me wrong, if Girardi doesn’t want the job and wants to sit out a year or two to spend time with his family, then that’s his choice to make. I’m sure that Dave Martinez (believed to be the Nationals top candidate as of yesterday) will make a fine manager. But the Lerners and Mike Rizzo must circle Joe Girardi’s name and say this is our guy.  Fly him out to DC on a private plane, wine and dine him, and offer him the job. If he declines, you move on knowing that you made your pitch. A pitch which will have included a four-year contract offer. A pitch which will have included a $4-5 million per year salary. The Lerners agreed to pay Joe Blanton $4 million last season, I’m sure they can splurge and pay a guy like Girardi the same.

In 2015, the Nationals needed the anti-Matt Williams and Dusty Baker fit the role well, restoring peace to the Nationals clubhouse. The Nationals don't need an anti-Dusty Baker, which is good because Joe Girardi isn't an anti-Dusty Baker, but the two are still very different. Both are extremely hard-working men and love what they do. Both are extremely well prepared. Both know and understand the game. Both are well respected by their players. But, while Dusty Baker manages every game like it’s May 27th, former Yankee, Mark Teixeira, was quoted in the New York post as saying “He (Girardi) manages every game like its Game 7.” The Nationals need somebody like that. They need intensity. They need urgency. Will Bryce Harper be here in 2019? Odds are, no he won’t, so it’s time to put the pedal to the metal.

GO GET JOE GIRARDI.

Potentially Franchise Altering Offseason

I figured I would let a couple of days pass before circling back around. I’ve been relentless on managers since I started writing. At the time, who could blame me, Matt Williams was the man at the helm just making poor decision after poor decision. There is no doubt about it, we’ve come a long way since then. Dusty Baker has been an immeasurable upgrade over Matt Williams. The players respect him and he’s a winner, at least in the regular season he is. But is Dusty the man who can lead the Nationals to the NLCS or even possibly the World Series? It’s truly debatable. There are those who love Dusty, both inside the clubhouse and out and think he is the guy who can lead this team to the next level. Then there are those who think if this team wants to take the next step, he’s got to go. I lean more towards the latter, but regardless of that, I’m fairly certain Dusty will end up back in the dugout for another year or two.

There are a couple of issues that make this a complex situation. First and foremost, if this team wasn’t entering the biggest offseason of their 12-year existence, this would be a no brainer, Dusty Baker would be back probably under a two or three-year contract. With Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Madson, among others, set to leave after the 2018 season, the Nationals have one more shot to bring a World Series back to Washington.

Which brings us to the Cubs series last week, which if you watched, you would have seen that Dusty Baker made a couple of terrible moves in pivotal moments, especially in Games 3 and 5. We touched on Dusty’s mistakes in Game 3 last week. He opted not to walk Anthony Rizzo with first base open and a runner in scoring position. In this situation, it wasn’t that he necessarily had the wrong pitcher out there to face Rizzo (we’ll get to that in a second), it was that he didn’t want to walk Rizzo and instead face Willson Contreras. Rizzo had already burned Dusty in Game 1. Contreras at that point in the series was 1 for 6, not to mention, Contreras was 0 for 5 career against our entire bullpen. That’s a very small sample size, but I’ll still take my chances. Instead, Oliver Perez faces Rizzo, Rizzo bloops in a single, screams about how he wants to be respected, and the Cubs win a game that Max Scherzer had a no hitter going into the 7th inning. But wait, let’s backtrack a second. Remember I said Oliver Perez wasn’t necessarily the wrong choice to face Rizzo? Well, he wasn’t. Rizzo was 2 for 7 against Perez, so Perez has had some success, the problem was, Rizzo was 0 for 3 combined against Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle, who also happen to be the Nationals three best relievers. It would be one thing if this were the only time Dusty did this, but in the 7th inning of a 1-0 game, Dusty decided he needed to bring in a left hander to face Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber had hit a rocket off of Max Scherzer in his prior at bat, so I’m actually with Dusty on this one. With the game on the line, he had to go get Max. But, again, instead of going to one of his top three relievers, Dusty goes to Sammy Solis, who doesn’t belong in a tie game, or a game in which the Nationals are leading. Joe Maddon counters with the right-handed Albert Almora, and Almora comes up with the big hit to tie the game. Almora hit .342 against left handers in 2017. When you went to a lefty, did you really think Maddon would leave the left handed hitting Schwarber in there? You couldn’t have. Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson most likely get you out of that inning without any damage being done. Schwarber was 0 for 2 with a strikeout against Madson for those wondering, although he had never faced Kintzler. Dusty didn’t stop there though, in an 8-6 game on Thursday, his confusing loyalty to Sammy Solis reared its ugly head again. Solis was called on to pitch the 7th inning and after getting one out, he gave up a rocket single off the wall to Schwarber - what a coincidence since in Game 3 Dusty wanted Solis to face Schwarber but Maddon pulled Schwarber in favor of Albert Almora – followed by another hit by Jon Jay. It’s astounding that in huge spots, not once, but twice, Dusty used his seventh best bullpen option instead of going to one of his top three options.

Sure, the bats didn’t come alive until the 8^th inning of Games 2 and 4 and then throughout Game 5, but the Cubs had the same problem. In close games like the Nationals and Cubs played in all 5 games, managing and umpiring is under the microscope. Fortunately, the umpiring wasn’t terrible until Game 5. Unfortunately, in Game 5 both the umpiring and Dusty’s managing were questionable at best.

That leaves us here, trying to figure out what minor adjustments need to be made to make sure the outcome is different next year. As I said, the Dusty situation is tricky. Who can Mike Rizzo bring in that could do a better job? There aren’t a whole lot of options as far as experienced managers go. You could take a look at John Farrell, who was just fired by the Boston Red Sox. He’s won a World Series, but he’s also been bounced from the playoffs in the first round the past two years. Not to mention, there are rumors coming out of Boston that the clubhouse didn’t like him and lost respect for him. After the Matt Williams debacle, I can’t imagine Mike Rizzo hiring somebody who has had problems with a clubhouse. Then you have Ron Gardenhire, who was considered for the job two years ago before Dusty was hired. Gardenhire is fine, but he’s no better than Dusty. He may actually be slightly worse. He has less playoff success than Dusty, which I didn’t even realize was possible. My favorite candidate is Joe Girardi. But who’s to say Girardi leaves New York? They have a more promising future than New York, and if he wants the chance to manage Bryce Harper, he can just wait another year. If Girardi happens to step down at the end of the season, I don’t see him taking another job immediately, which is a bummer for Washington, because he’s the perfect guy for the job. The last experienced candidate that could be considered is Mike Redmond, who managed an absolute dog mess of a Marlins team to a 77-85 record in 2014. Redmond has no playoff experience though, so is he necessarily a better option than Dusty? Probably not. Short of Joe Girardi, there are no experienced managers out there who are an upgrade over Dusty. You could take a shot in the dark like the Dodgers did two years ago and go with Alex Cora or Dave Martinez. It turned into gold for the Dodgers, but who’s to say it would work for the Nats? Expect Dusty to be back. It’s nothing to be excited about, but it’s also not the worst thing.

Besides Dusty, the next biggest thing facing the Nationals this offseason is whether or not they able to resign anybody set to hit free agency next year? Bryce Harper already has one foot out the door, Gio Gonzalez is most likely gone as well. But can the Nationals extend Daniel Murphy for another year or two? Going into the final season of a 3 year $37.5 million deal, would Murph take a 2 year $30 million extension to stay with the Nats? It’s definitely something to explore. Notice I said Bryce Harper has one foot out the door. Expect Mike Rizzo to quietly shop Bryce at the Winter Meetings and throughout the offseason. Would the loser of the ALCS, either Houston or New York, make an offer that Mike Rizzo can’t refuse and go all in for one year? Could Rizzo turn down an Astros offer centered around their top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and Derek Fisher, who made his Major League debut this year? What if the Yankees offered Dellin Betances and top prospect Clint Frazier, who also made his Major League debut this year. I don’t know that either of those teams make an offer that strong, but if they do, I would expect to see Bryce Harper in another uniform next season. Unless the Lerners and Mike Rizzo get some sort of sign from Scott Boras that Bryce Harper is interested in staying in Washington past this season, you have to consider dealing him. If you’re Mike Rizzo, you’re at a crossroads. Bryce Harper surely can help you win a World Series, but you also don’t want to let him walk away and get nothing in return. This team is good enough to win the division without Bryce Harper, but is it good enough to win in the playoffs without him? Insert Victor Robles and it just might be.

Same Nats, Different Year

They’re about to do it again. They’re about to make it four straight divisional round exits. It seems like it’s about that time to just say “hey, this team isn’t built to win”. You can point to the 95, 96, 97, and 98 win seasons that say otherwise. But you can’t ignore the facts and the facts are that this team as constructed can win in the regular season, but can’t win in the playoffs.

Year in and year out, the bats are to blame. They have a bunch of .300 hitters during the regular season, and then when they playoffs roll around they become .100 hitters. Go ahead, let me hear it, “it’s a small sample size”, “it’s under a microscope”, “these guys hit .100 during stretches of the regular season too, but as a whole they are .300 hitters.” Quite frankly, I don’t care. I don’t care if you hit .235 during the regular season if you can hit .300 in the playoffs. This is where stars are made, and quite frankly, the Nationals don’t have any stars. The Nationals lineup, which I’m 100% certain will not change for Game 4 is hitting .000, .167, .100, .091, .250, .100, .000, and .250. That’s right, two players (Trea Turner and Matt Wieters) don’t even have a hit, while three others have one hit each. Absolutely pathetic. Some will point to the Cubs and say “well they aren’t hitting either”, but they are. They’re hitting when it matters. Kris Bryant is hitting. 273 and Anthony Rizzo is hitting .333 for the series driving in six of the Cubs eight runs this series. You can’t win a ballgame unless you hit and score some runs. Since 2012, the Washington Nationals are averaging 3.3 runs per game in 17 games (3.1 runs per game if you take into account that Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS went 18 innings and the Nationals scored 1 run). This includes last year’s series against the Dodgers where the bats did come alive somewhat and we scored 4.8 runs per game. Take that series out and the number goes down to 2.66 runs per game in 12 games. The Nationals aren’t the only ones facing playoff pitching at this point in the year, but they are sure as hell the only ones who are scared of hitting playoff pitching at this point in the year.

Not scoring is the number one reason the Washington Nationals will not advance past the Divisional Round for the fourth straight try. Dusty Baker is the other reason why they will not advance. I’m going to hear it for this one too, “managers are just a scapegoat, the players need to perform.” Hey, guess what, like I said above, I DON’T CARE. If this team were losing 8-0, it wouldn’t be Dusty’s fault and Dusty would be a scapegoat. But in tie games and games decided by one run, the manager’s decisions are pivotal to the outcome of a game. A good manager goes unnoticed, a lot like a good umpire. The Nationals have never had what I would consider a good manager. Dusty Baker will never be able to explain to me or to any Nationals fan for that matter why not once, not twice, but three times he decided to pitch to Anthony Rizzo with the game on the line. Rizzo burned him all three times. It’s inexcusable. Dusty’s reasoning was that Willson Contreras, who was on deck, could also burn the Nationals. Sure, Dusty. I guess technically that’s true. Just like Joe Maddon could have sent Kyle Hendricks up as a pinch hitter for Willson Contreras and he could have driven a run in! It could technically happen! But if you look at Willson’s career numbers against the Nationals bullpen, he is 0 for 5 with a strikeout, collectively, against Matt Albers, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Enny Romero, and Sammy Solis. Literally take your choice of any of those guys, and you give yourself a better shot at winning than if you face Anthony Rizzo. Instead, Dusty continues to manage like it’s 1985 and go to his lefty lefty matchup instead of looking at the statistics and the splits. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker never has and never will win a World Series.

The Biggest Blow Yet

It’s bad...real bad. Let me try to talk you off the ledge though, because it sounds worse than it really is. Oh and for once, I’m not talking about the bullpen. I'll try my best to completely ignore the bullpen because at the end of the day, what more could we possibly say about this flaming dumpster fire that hasn’t already been said. No, what I’m talking about is the Nationals lineup, which has been getting knocked around all season, but to date, it may have just taken its biggest blow.

Losing Adam Eaton for the season in late April was a tough loss, but Michael A. Taylor has filled in admirably. The thought process was, if the lineup stays in tact minus Eaton, and Taylor can hit around .250, that the Nationals would be fine. But to lose Eaton and Turner now for an extended period of time is a big blow. Not many teams would be able to lose their top two hitters in the lineup to injury and continue to score runs at a high level, the Nationals included. So, here’s where we are:

Nationals lineup Opening Day                       Nationals possible lineup June 30^th

Turner                                                              Taylor

Eaton                                                               Goodwin

Harper                                                             Harper

Murphy                                                           Zimmerman

Zimmerman                                                     Murphy

Werth                                                              Rendon

Drew (Rendon was hurt)                                Drew

Wieters                                                            Wieters

If Dusty wanted to go way outside the box, he could move Rendon to the leadoff spot and leave Goodwin hitting second and Taylor hitting eighth. Rendon sees a lot of pitches and although he has more power than the prototypical leadoff man, his OBP is sky high at .402 right now. This lineup still looks deep and should have no problem surviving until Turner comes back (assuming Taylor keeps hitting), hopefully in the beginning of September. The biggest issue now is that our once deep bench is now a below average bench. Dusty can still call on Lind as his top pinch hitter, but past Lind, his options are Difo, Raburn, Lobaton, and newly called up Adrian Sanchez.

Here’s the thing though, this lineup and bench only have to survive for about a week and a half before some help arrives. Jayson Werth is expected to return after the All-Star break, so that would move Goodwin to the bench, providing some much needed depth there. It also deepens the lineup. As good as Goodwin has been, Werth has an ability to see a bunch of pitches each at bat, along with his .367 OBP this year is something you ideally want in your leadoff man. Once Werth is back, expect to see him in the leadoff spot and then maybe see Rendon in the two hole.

If for some reason Mike Rizzo decides that he needs to go acquire a shortstop, he can do that. There should be plenty available with Jed Lowry, Eduardo Nunez, and Zack Cozart topping the list. I know I said I wouldn’t talk about the bullpen, but I can’t help myself – the beauty of making a trade for any of those three shortstops is that each of those teams has a closer or a reliever that would significantly improve the Nationals bullpen. Oakland has Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, San Francisco has Mark Melancon, and Cincinnati has Drew Storen. Yeah, I’m completely kidding, Cincinnati has Raisel Iglesias.

Ideally, Mike Rizzo goes to Oakland first and tries to get Lowry, Doolittle, AND Madson. Why? A couple of reasons, but the biggest reason being the Nationals would acquire three players in this deal who are controllable after this year if they want them. Lowry is the only one with a club option, which is valued at $6 million, or it can be bought out for $1 million. Doolittle can’t become a free agent until 2020 and Madson will not be a free agent until after the 2018 season. It’s a move that helps the bullpen not only this year, but for the next couple of years without completely restricting the payroll.

Each of these deals would present complications though too. San Francisco looks like the best trade partner on paper. Nunez plays shortstop, can leadoff, and steals lots of bases. He could potentially fill right in for Turner until he returns. Melancon came to the Nationals in a deadline deal last year and did a fantastic job. The issue is, Melancon is owed another $53 million over the next three seasons and he has hit the disabled list twice this season. The Lerners don’t want to spend $500,000 to improve this team, so how would anybody convince them to take on $53 million? Not going to happen.

The issue with Cincinnati is Raisel Iglesias is young and under team control through the 2020 season. Not to mention, Cozart is having an All Star season at shortstop. The cost to acquire both of these guys is probably going to be too rich for Mike Rizzo to swallow. I would assume it would include either Victor Robles or Erick Fedde and then another 2-3 prospects on top of that. Rizzo is going to try to get through the trade deadline without giving up Robles or Fedde, but it’s going to be tough.

My best guess is Mike Rizzo approaches Billy Beane about Lowry, Madson, and Doolittle, but unless the Athletics are willing to send some money to the Nationals, I don’t know that it works. Something like Jed Lowry, Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and $6 million in return for Juan Soto, Sheldon Neuse, A.J. Cole, and Brian Goodwin could work, but who knows if the A’s will bite on sending the cash back. It would give the A’s a Major League ready outfielder and some rotation depth (remember that Billy Beane traded for A.J. Cole before, so he must like him) as well as two of the Nationals top six prospects. If the Nationals can’t work the deal with the A’s, look for them to try and get David Robertson from the White Sox for a couple of mid-level prospects and some cash and then add a utility player in a smaller deal to help fill the void on the bench until Turner returns. 

Who is the Real Problem?

We all knew it was going to happen, I just don’t think we knew it was going to be this bad. Even worse is it’s going to continue until Mike Rizzo is given the go ahead to actually solve the problem. I don’t think I’ve written a blog this year where the bullpen was not the center of discussion. The Nationals have lost a Major League leading 5 games when entering the 9th inning with a lead. In the past 3 games alone, the Nationals bullpen has given up 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Every single one of those runs was given up in the 8th innings or later and the Nationals, unsurprisingly, are 0-3 in that stretch. The starters are gassed. Dusty Baker feels like he has no choice but to ride them as long as he can, most times into the 7th or 8th inning. Who can fix it though? Who can make this right? Unfortunately, only one or two people can. I’ll give you a hint: it’s not Mike Rizzo and it’s not Dusty Baker.

Ted Lerner is worth an estimated $5.5 billion, making him the 3rd richest owner in baseball. The Nationals as a team, have the 9th highest payroll in baseball coming in at approximately $170.5 million. By no means, are the Lerners cheap, as evidenced by the 7 year $210 million contract given to Max Scherzer or the 7 year $175 million contract given to Stephen Strasburg (even including the substantial deferrals). The Lerners are however extremely finicky about where they spend their money. Any Scott Boras client can just have a blank check. A manager? Nice try, the Lerners think they can find somebody who can do just as good a job for half the money. After all, the product is on the field and not in the dugout, right? Wrong. I’m not going to go any further into the Dusty Baker contract situation. Ultimately, he’s going to get an extension at close to market value (probably about double what he is making now). This is, however, a prime example of the Lerners thinking when it comes to spending on this team.

A little under a month ago, Bob Nightengale from USA Today wrote that the Nationals and the Chicago White Sox had worked out a trade that would have brought closer David Robertson to Washington before Spring Training started. Now, before we go into specifics, lets recall that going into Spring Training, the Nationals didn’t have a closer. This would have brought back a bona fide closer. I’m not saying he’s on the level of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Mark Melancon. I am saying though, that this is a guy who has closed games for 4+ years. A guy who has been to the playoffs. A guy who has pitched in and won a World Series. The Nationals would have sent Jesus Luzardo and Drew Ward, their number 10 and 12 prospects, respectively, to the White Sox in exchange for David Robertson and approximately $12.5 million. Luzardo has not pitched ONE day in the Minor Leagues because he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. The Lerners axed this deal because David Robertson was owed $25 million over the next two years. Of that $25 million, the White Sox were willing to pay half. The Lerners weren’t content with highway robbery though, they wanted more. They refused to pick up the remaining $12.5 million over two years that would have been on David Robertson’s contract. Mind you, they will be paying Rafael Soriano $2 million per year from next year until 2024, but why pay for a player who may actually help you bring a World Series to Washington?

The Lerners are a problem. I can’t go so far as to say they are bad owners, there are plenty of those out there, but they surely are hindering this team from taking the next step. Mike Rizzo is doing his job as best he can. He’s trying to work out a solution for this bullpen. But as a GM, how are you supposed to convince a team not to ask for Victor Robles or Erick Fedde in a trade AND pick up the entire salary of the reliever they are trading? You can’t, it’s impossible. If you want to point to the MASN dispute as a reason for the unwillingness to increase the payroll midseason, that’s fine, but I’m not having it. This team is profitable with or without the increase in TV revenue. By no means are the Lerners hurting for cash. The only ones hurting for anything are the 17 guys on this team playing their asses off night in and night out only to see the 8-man circus out in the bullpen come in and blow another game.

So, what do you do when you have uncooperative owners and a bullpen that just flat out sucks? I wish I had the answer. I wish Dusty Baker or Mike Rizzo had the answer. I guess you just continue to ride it out and hope that somebody in the bullpen eventually steps up. Going on 2 ½ months of this nightmare makes it unlikely that somebody in the bullpen will just suddenly flip a switch, but stranger things have happened. You could just keep bringing minor leaguers up in hopes that one or two of them give you quality innings and get outs. Or, a very unconventional idea, is to use a rotating starting pitcher as your closer. Whichever starter is scheduled to throw his bullpen that day would become the team’s closer for the game. Sure, it’s extremely bizarre, but until this mess gets sorted out, it may just work.

Oddly enough, one man who probably could fix the problem immediately is Scott Boras, which is just plain sad. If Boras walked into Ted Lerner’s office and told him you need to trade for a closer, he would OK the next deal that Mike Rizzo came to him with. The obsession that the Lerners have with Scott Boras is borderline disturbing, especially because the Lerners will ignore suggestions from their own GM, and then turn around and listen to an agent who has no association with the team. But hey, on the bright side, Boras is Bryce Harper’s agent and as we all know, Harper is a free agent after next season.

Oh – and for the 100^th time this year, please trade for some bullpen help.

Do We Really Have to Talk About the Bullpen Again?

Here’s the thing, I don’t want to consistently talk about how bad the bullpen is. The Nationals are 17-9, so while we should be talking about the success of this team and how great the lineup looks, it’s tough to do so when such an integral part of this team is struggling so badly.

The bullpen holds a 5-4 record, thanks in large part to the Nationals lineup, which is averaging 6.65 runs per game through the first 26 games of the year. That 5-4 record is about the only thing respectable about what the Nationals bullpen has done so far this year. The bullpen ranks 28^th (out of 30 teams) in bullpen ERA, 26^th in batting average against, and 26^th in homeruns allowed. The Nationals bullpen has given up 16 homeruns in just under 76 innings pitched. For comparison, Nationals starting pitchers have given up 19 homeruns in 160 innings pitched. One thing the Nationals bullpen has done well is limited the number of walks they’ve issued. The Nationals bullpen has surprisingly issued the least amount of walks of any bullpen in the Majors. I say surprisingly because it seems like every time the bullpen comes in, they either walk the leadoff man or give up a leadoff hit, but that doesn’t seem to be the case when you look at the numbers. There is one caveat to this stat though, the Nationals bullpen has thrown the third least innings in the Majors (although they’ve played one more game than the team with the second least and two more games than the team with the least).

Trust me, it’s a good thing they’ve thrown such a low number of innings. Starting pitchers are going deep into games, which is great. The main reason they’ve thrown such a few number of innings though (and we touched on this before) is because Dusty Baker doesn’t trust anybody in the bullpen to get him outs. Case and point, last night, Tanner Roark threw 125 pitches to get through 6 innings. Dusty Baker admitted after the game that he didn’t necessarily want Tanner to throw that many pitches, but he didn’t have a choice. His reasoning was because some of the guys in the bullpen were unavailable. I repeat, they were unavailable. After an off day. An off day that followed a day where the offense put up 23 runs, where four relievers were used, two of whom pitched last night. If you want to tell me that Matt Albers was unavailable last night because he pitched two innings on Sunday, then fine, I’ll take that. Who in the world could have been unavailable to pitch after an off day. Blake Treinen pitched on Sunday and then pitched yesterday, so he wasn’t unavailable. Joe Blanton pitched on Sunday and then pitched yesterday, so he wasn’t unavailable. The only other reliever who pitched Sunday besides these three, was Oliver Perez, who warmed up twice last night, so again, he wasn’t unavailable. It’s baffling. Truly baffling, that a bullpen who has thrown the third fewest innings in the Majors, coming off an off day, had two relievers who were unavailable. Part of the problem was instead of bringing up a fresh reliever to take Joe Ross’s roster spot, the Nationals brought up A.J. Cole, who is serving a 3 game suspension for something that happened last season. That meant he’s useless, and Jacob Turner, who is scheduled to start on Saturday, was useless as well. So, you essentially have four pitchers who are “unavailable”, which led to Dusty Baker having to use Blake Treinen, who works as fast as a turtle and is statistically the second worst reliever in the Nationals bullpen, and Joe Blanton, who is statistically the worst reliever in the bullpen, in a one run game. Shockingly, that didn’t work out so well.

I could write for the rest of the day about the struggles of the bullpen, but that isn’t going to change anything. So, where do we go from here? Well, Mike Rizzo continues to publicly state that he likes the bullpen and these guys have a track record and they’ll come around. I seriously doubt, unless he’s going blind, that he actually believes that. Will some guys come around? Of course they will, but to depend on every single one of these guys coming around, that’s just ludicrous. There are some guys in AAA that can help this team, mainly Austin Adams (who we received for Danny Espinosa) and Neal Cotts, who has had a solid start to the season in AAA. If Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker don’t think these guys will help, then it’s time to start looking at relievers on the trade market. David Robertson is still available, Kelvin Herrera will be available soon, if he isn’t already. These are two guys with proven track records that can right the ship.

In other news, Joe Ross was demoted on Monday to AAA following two awful starts, where he wasn’t able to get out of the fourth inning. Hopefully Ross gets it together in AAA, but if not, we may see Erick Fedde sooner than we thought. Jacob Turner, although he has pretty good stuff, has a terrible track record in the Majors, so I seriously doubt that all of a sudden he is going to become a reliable starting pitcher. Although the Nationals and Joe Ross are denying it, there is a chance that Ross is hurt. His velocity has been noticeably down his past two starts and his slider, which is his out pitch, isn’t sliding.

I’m still too distraught to fully talk about Adam Eaton. The lineup looked unstoppable with Eaton in there. The double steals that we saw last night from the top of the Diamondbacks order is exactly what we would have seen from Turner and Eaton. That will have to wait until next year though. It’s time for Michael A Taylor to step up. Again. If I were a betting man, I’d say the Nationals will either have Andrew Stevenson (the Nationals 2015 second round pick, currently in AAA) starting in centerfield by August 1, or they will have traded for a new centerfielder. Michael Taylor is Danny Espinosa, except he strikes out more. The Nationals just rid themselves of Danny Espinosa, but now his clone is right back in the lineup. Espinosa struck out 28% of his career at bats, Michael Taylor has topped that and struck out in 32% of his career at bats. That’s just not going to work. He plays exceptional defense, but unless he’s figured out how to make more contact, I just don’t see him holding on to the everyday job.

Just keep winning and all of this becomes a moot point. In the midst of winning some games, if the bullpen happens to settle down and Mike Rizzo makes a move to get a stud reliever, that would be much appreciated. Finish the home stand strong against Arizona, then go grab a few wins in Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Shawn Kelley or Koda Glover?

I didn’t want to start my first post of the season out by rambling on and on about how bad the Nationals bullpen is. So, I decided instead to look back at my previous post to see how I felt about it, and of course, I found what all Nationals fans including myself already knew, the bullpen is, as I put it in my last post (on December 9, 2016 mind you), a dumpster fire. There’s no way around it. There are some normally reliable guys out there struggling, sure, but for all intents and purposes, the “deepest bullpen in Nationals history” is turning out to be one of the worst bullpens in Nationals history.

Dusty Baker told you all you need to know about the Nationals bullpen last night. In the top of the 7^th inning, with Max Scherzer at 102 pitches through six innings, Dusty decided to let Scherzer hit for himself. This was Scherzer’s third start of the season, and Dusty was already going to let him go 110-115+ pitches. I don’t care what anybody says, Dusty didn’t do that because he wanted to or because Scherzer talked him into letting him stay in the game. He did that because he had to. At the time, the Nationals had a 2-0 lead and Dusty didn’t trust that his bullpen could go out there and get him nine outs before they give up two or more runs, and quite frankly, why would he? At this point in the season, in a close game where the Nationals are leading, Dusty only trusts two relievers (Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover – Joe Blanton is on the cusp, but has been giving up too many homeruns to make the list right now and Sammy Solis is also on the border). He went with Solis in the 8^th inning last night, with Koda Glover ready to come in if/when Solis got into trouble, which may seem a little odd since Shawn Kelley is the set-up man. It’s actually not odd at all though, because it shows that Dusty doesn’t trust Blake Treinen. Shawn Kelley didn’t pitch the 8^th inning last night because Dusty needed him to be ready for the 9^th. It’s the same reason that the Nationals set-up man wasn’t used to relieve Gio Gonzalez on Sunday in the 8^th inning. Koda Glover came in instead because Dusty knew that Treinen was going to handle the 9^th and he needed Kelley to be ready to put out any fires.

So it looks like we’re back to where we started. Is Koda Glover going to close, or is Shawn Kelley going to close? Honestly, those were the Nationals two best options from the beginning. Blake Treinen is a great pitcher to have in your bullpen. He can come in with runners on and get a ground ball to get out of a jam. Blake Treinen is not a closer though. For some reason, the front office got this notion in their head that Blake Treinen needs to close, but I don’t know that Dusty Baker was ever fully behind that decision. If it were up to Dusty, a guy who is notorious for going with veterans over rookies mind you, he would have opened the year with Koda Glover as his closer. At this point though, Shawn Kelley has earned it. He’s been thrown into back to back bases loaded jams in the 9^th inning that his friend Blake Treinen started and both times he’s gotten out of it unscathed. Koda Glover can settle in as the new set-up man knowing that in a year or two the closers job will be his (assuming he’s successful as the set-up man).

On another note, the Nationals need to clear a roster spot for Joe Ross before tonight’s game. One thing they can’t do, is send Blake Treinen down to AAA. His confidence is already shot, you can’t send him down to work out his problems, just keep him up and let him ease back into pitching in high leverage situations. He was too valuable to the bullpen last year and he still has the stuff to come in and get valuable outs late in the game. The two candidates to get DFA’d are Matt Albers and Henry Rodriguez Enny Romero. Albers has thrown three scoreless innings for the Nationals since he got called up two weeks ago, while Romero has shown he can hit 100 mph on the radar guns, but not much else. My guess is Romero gets designated and Albers stays.

I won’t even bother addressing C.B. Bucknor’s debacle of a performance last night. He’s a complete disaster and always has been. If Enny Romero had any control over that 100 mph fastball, then he could do the rest of the league a favor and throw it right at Bucknor’s knee cap, but he doesn’t. Maybe Romero and Bucknor will reunite in AAA this year instead.

At the end of the day, the Nationals are 8-5 and in first place through the first 13 games of the season. We will see Joe Ross for the first time tonight and Trea Turner’s return should not be too far behind. Although the bullpen is a total mess, things are looking up for this team. They are in the midst of a brutal road trip which started in Atlanta, will go to New York next (including playing the Sunday night game), then on to Colorado for four games, then back to DC to play the Mets again starting next Friday night. Quite frankly, a 5-5 road trip followed by the Nats taking two of three from the Mets back in DC has to be the goal. That would leave the Nationals at 15-11 at the end of April. Anything better is a bonus, just don’t get swept in New York or in Colorado.