After letting the Adam Eaton trade sink in for a couple days, I've come to terms with the trade and I've actually come to like it. Initially, I, like most Nationals fans, screamed YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. In fact, some Nationals fans may still feel that way, I however, am no longer one of them. The Nationals gave up top prospects, Lucas Giolito (the #3 rated prospect in all of baseball), Reynaldo Lopez (the #38 rated prospect in all of baseball), and Dane Dunning (one of the Nationals 2016 first round picks) for Adam Eaton. If you had asked me last week if I'd trade Lucas Giolito straight up for Adam Eaton, I probably would have said no. Now, I'm coming around on the fact that Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning all got dealt for Eaton.
So what did the Nationals really give up? They gave up a whole lot of potential, and even more uncertainty. Lucas Giolito was supposed to be a staple in the rotation possibly as early as next year. In his six start stint in the Majors last year though, Giolito was extremely underwhelming. Fans and scouts were left wondering where Giolito's 95+ MPH (sometimes touching 99-100) fastball went. Giolito was hitting 92-93 on the radar guns, but never topped out higher than 95 MPH. He had a big sweeping curveball, but he was very hittable. He finished his six game campaign with a 6.75 ERA. Is that reason to give up on your top prospect? No, not at all, but if you're looking to win now, then maybe it is. The Nationals window to win a championship may be closing and there truly isn't time for Giolito to figure it out in the Majors on the fly. Giolito had to be used as a trade chip this offseason before his stock fell even further.
Trading Reynaldo Lopez stung. That one was a tougher pill to swallow than dealing Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez has a fastball that touches triple digits and was even selected to the playoff roster because of the dominant stuff that he possesses. He went 5-3 in eleven Major League outings this year with a 4.91 ERA. The ERA still leaves a lot to be desired, but he's 22 years old. He still has some developing to do and he showed that he has swing and miss stuff. I figured that best case scenario, Lopez would step into the rotation this upcoming year and be the third starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for years to come. Worst case scenario, Lopez could become a dominant reliever with his overpowering fastball and ridiculous curveball. Lopez is by far the best piece the White Sox received in this trade. Dane Dunning is somewhat of an unknown. He could be a back end starter in the Major Leagues, or he could be a solid reliever, depending on how he develops and what the White Sox want from him. The Nationals were developing him as a reliever, which seems to be what he is best suited for.
So what did the Nationals get in Adam Eaton, then? The Nationals got an undercover stud. Wait, scratch that, the Nationals got a cheap undercover stud. Eaton has never made an All Star game, but he probably should have made two of three by now. In his three years with the White Sox, Eaton hit .290, with an on base percentage of .362, averaged 10 home runs per year (although he hit 14 in 2015 and 14 again in 2016), led the American League in triples two of the three years, and stole 16 bags per year. Oh, and the guy who finished third in the National League in triples despite only playing in 73 games, yeah he's going to be hitting either in front of or behind Eaton. What about his defense, you ask? He was statistically the best right fielder in the American League last year. Sure, he's going to be moving back to center field this year, where he played two of his three seasons for the White Sox. In 2015, Eaton had a rough year in center, mainly because of injuries, so the White Sox moved him to right. Eaton is a fully capable center fielder though, he has an above average arm and has great range. Did I mention he's cheap and controllable? He's under contract for another five years for a total of $38.4 million. I'm sure that was music to Ted Lerner's ears after seeing what kind of money has already been thrown around this offseason.
The biggest problem as a result of this trade though has yet to be addressed. The Nationals have now addressed catcher and center field. Those are two of the three positions which needed to be addressed this offseason, but there is still a huge gaping hole at closer and not a whole lot of money to be spent. The Nationals didn't want to pay Mark Melancon $60 plus million to resign, and although it appears they are in the Kenley Jansen sweepstakes, it doesn't seem likely that they will pay $80+ million to sign him. In my prior post, I suggested Melancon might get four years and $50 million, I was way off, which puts the Nationals in a tough spot. The Nationals are already fairly close to topping out their budget and they've traded two of their three top prospects. Trading Danny Espinosa (which seems highly possibly with Eaton on board) would free up about $6 million. So assuming the Nationals have about $10-12 million to work with for the remainder of the offseason, they could go a couple of different directions. The best option at this point is to sign former Royals closer, Greg Holland to a two year $10 million deal with incentives, then turn around and also sign Brad Ziegler to a one year $4 million deal. This leaves the Nationals with some extra cash to resign infielder Stephen Drew for $3-4 million. It also gives the Nationals Greg Holland, who was once a dominant closer for the Kansas City Royals before getting injured, and Brad Ziegler, who is a great reliever and who also has closing experience in the event that Holland flames out.
Rizzo may have made his biggest move of the offseason already, but he still has a lot of work to do before Spring Training begins. The lineup looks just as good, if not better than it was last year with the addition of Eaton, but the back end of the bullpen looks like a dumpster fire.
Friday, December 9, 2016
Monday, November 14, 2016
Offseason Plan
I had an end of the year blog all typed up and ready to post about a month ago. Then I said to myself "why am I even going to post this", the title of the blog said it all. It read "Same Stuff Different Year" and if you're a Nationals fan, you didn't even have to read the article to know what I meant by that. It was an even year, the Nationals won the division, and then flopped in the playoffs. Just as they did in 2012 (although the thought of Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS still scars Nationals fans to this day), and in 2014 as well.
The difference between this team and Matt Williams' 2014 Nationals was this team was dealing with significant injuries and this team fought hard. When you lose your number two starter, who would be an ace on many teams, and your starting catcher, who hit .307 and 22 homers for you, your chances of winning a championship take a real hit. When you lose them both in September, not only do your chances take a real hit, but your team morale takes a real hit as well. The Nationals fought though, they took the series to five games. Most of all, when they went down 4-1 in the 7th inning of Game 5, they fought back. The Nationals of 2014 were gutless. They would have rolled over and lost 4-1. Sure, a loss is a loss, but when guys are making contact and fighting, it's a lot easier to watch than when guys are striking out and wondering when their tee time is the following day.
Enough about this past season though. It's time to look ahead to 2017 and what this team needs to do to not only win the division again next year, but to advance in the playoffs. There are no glaring holes in this team per se, but there are areas that need to be addressed. The Nationals need a closer, they need a center fielder or a shortstop, and they need a catcher. As always, there are dream scenarios and there are realistic scenarios. My dream scenario is that the Nationals re-sign Mark Melancon who becomes the setup man, sign Kenley Jansen who becomes the closer, sign Dexter Fowler to play center field (which means Trea Turner becomes the shortstop), and then re-sign Wilson Ramos. We know Ramos will be out to begin the season, but he's the best available catcher this offseason and if the Nationals can get him on a two or three year deal, I think they should do it and just start the season with Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino behind the plate. The problem with this plan is it would require the Nationals to dish out around $200 million in contracts this offseason. With the MASN dispute still being an issue, that's just not going to happen.
A realistic idea of what may happen, though, does include a few players from my dream scenario. I think the Nationals have to end up with either Mark Melancon or Kenley Jansen. I don't see them signing both, and being that Melancon will be the cheaper of the two, I'm going to say they end up resigning him for somewhere in the neighborhood of four years $50 million. Statistically, Melancon is right on par with Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, so to be able to get him for about half the cost of the other two would be a great deal for the Nationals. Center field and catcher are going to be a bit trickier.
The Nationals don't necessarily have to address center field this year. They could wait until next year when Lorenzo Cain is a free agent and then go after him. The problem with waiting though, is you're committing to another year of Danny Espinosa at shortstop. You're also going into next offseason with a hole in left field and center field because Jayson Werth is going to be a free agent, and the assumption is, once Danny Espinosa is traded this offseason or leaves via free agency next year, Trea Turner will take over at short stop. By signing Dexter Fowler to a three or four year deal, you move Trea to shortstop this season, and your outfield is set. Not only that, but having Fowler and Trea at the top of the lineup could create some real problems for other teams. Although the Nationals have been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, I think that Fowler is the better investment. He's a better fielder, will come cheaper, and is a better fit with the team. The last option is to stay in house and either hang on to Ben Revere, or let Revere go, do nothing else, and go into next season with Werth in left, Trea in center, Bryce in right, and Brian Goodwin as your fourth outfielder. That's the worst of the options and also the least likely. I don't know that Mike Rizzo will sign Fowler, but if he doesn't, expect him to make a trade to acquire an outfielder.
That brings us to the dilemma at catcher. Prior to Wilson Ramos's injury, the Nationals definitely would have extended a Qualifying Offer and probably would have tried to resign Wilson. Since the injury, it's a whole different story, the Nationals didn't extend the Qualifying Offer, and the Nationals may not be willing to meet Wilson's asking price since he won't be ready for the start of next year and there are questions as to how his legs are going to hold up. There are some catching options out there, led by the Orioles' Matt Wieters, but I don't see the Nationals going that route. The Nationals will most likely make a trade here. Brian McCann is an option, as is Derek Norris, but Rizzo's biggest target should be Stephen Vogt of the Athletics.
Mike Rizzo and Billy Beane have worked numerous deals together, so there's no doubt that they could get together here and make a deal. The question is going to be, what is Beane's asking price for his 32 year old catcher who still has four years of team control left? If I were Beane, the asking price would be high, and if I'm Mike Rizzo, depending on how high the asking price is (obviously no Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, or Victor Robles), I'd probably be willing to meet it. Vogt is an extremely versatile, left handed hitting catcher. Vogt doesn't only play catcher, he has played first base and both corner outfield positions throughout his career. This is a guy who isn't going to cost you a whole lot being that he is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and is going to bring some pop to the lineup. He is a .255 career hitter and has hit 32 home runs over the past two years. The only red flag is Vogt is a .264 career hitter against right handed pitching and a .215 career hitter against left handers, so this could turn into a platoon behind the plate where Severino plays against lefties and Vogt plays against righties.
There are obviously more moves to be made with the bullpen and bench, but those will come sporadically throughout the offseason and some may even come in house. By adding Melancon, Fowler, and Vogt, the Nationals would put themselves in prime position to compete for a World Series Championship without breaking the bank. By splurging to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals would spend all of their money on one player without addressing their other needs. It seems like a no brainer to me, and in the end, I think it will be a no brainer to Mike Rizzo as well.
The difference between this team and Matt Williams' 2014 Nationals was this team was dealing with significant injuries and this team fought hard. When you lose your number two starter, who would be an ace on many teams, and your starting catcher, who hit .307 and 22 homers for you, your chances of winning a championship take a real hit. When you lose them both in September, not only do your chances take a real hit, but your team morale takes a real hit as well. The Nationals fought though, they took the series to five games. Most of all, when they went down 4-1 in the 7th inning of Game 5, they fought back. The Nationals of 2014 were gutless. They would have rolled over and lost 4-1. Sure, a loss is a loss, but when guys are making contact and fighting, it's a lot easier to watch than when guys are striking out and wondering when their tee time is the following day.
Enough about this past season though. It's time to look ahead to 2017 and what this team needs to do to not only win the division again next year, but to advance in the playoffs. There are no glaring holes in this team per se, but there are areas that need to be addressed. The Nationals need a closer, they need a center fielder or a shortstop, and they need a catcher. As always, there are dream scenarios and there are realistic scenarios. My dream scenario is that the Nationals re-sign Mark Melancon who becomes the setup man, sign Kenley Jansen who becomes the closer, sign Dexter Fowler to play center field (which means Trea Turner becomes the shortstop), and then re-sign Wilson Ramos. We know Ramos will be out to begin the season, but he's the best available catcher this offseason and if the Nationals can get him on a two or three year deal, I think they should do it and just start the season with Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino behind the plate. The problem with this plan is it would require the Nationals to dish out around $200 million in contracts this offseason. With the MASN dispute still being an issue, that's just not going to happen.
A realistic idea of what may happen, though, does include a few players from my dream scenario. I think the Nationals have to end up with either Mark Melancon or Kenley Jansen. I don't see them signing both, and being that Melancon will be the cheaper of the two, I'm going to say they end up resigning him for somewhere in the neighborhood of four years $50 million. Statistically, Melancon is right on par with Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, so to be able to get him for about half the cost of the other two would be a great deal for the Nationals. Center field and catcher are going to be a bit trickier.
The Nationals don't necessarily have to address center field this year. They could wait until next year when Lorenzo Cain is a free agent and then go after him. The problem with waiting though, is you're committing to another year of Danny Espinosa at shortstop. You're also going into next offseason with a hole in left field and center field because Jayson Werth is going to be a free agent, and the assumption is, once Danny Espinosa is traded this offseason or leaves via free agency next year, Trea Turner will take over at short stop. By signing Dexter Fowler to a three or four year deal, you move Trea to shortstop this season, and your outfield is set. Not only that, but having Fowler and Trea at the top of the lineup could create some real problems for other teams. Although the Nationals have been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, I think that Fowler is the better investment. He's a better fielder, will come cheaper, and is a better fit with the team. The last option is to stay in house and either hang on to Ben Revere, or let Revere go, do nothing else, and go into next season with Werth in left, Trea in center, Bryce in right, and Brian Goodwin as your fourth outfielder. That's the worst of the options and also the least likely. I don't know that Mike Rizzo will sign Fowler, but if he doesn't, expect him to make a trade to acquire an outfielder.
That brings us to the dilemma at catcher. Prior to Wilson Ramos's injury, the Nationals definitely would have extended a Qualifying Offer and probably would have tried to resign Wilson. Since the injury, it's a whole different story, the Nationals didn't extend the Qualifying Offer, and the Nationals may not be willing to meet Wilson's asking price since he won't be ready for the start of next year and there are questions as to how his legs are going to hold up. There are some catching options out there, led by the Orioles' Matt Wieters, but I don't see the Nationals going that route. The Nationals will most likely make a trade here. Brian McCann is an option, as is Derek Norris, but Rizzo's biggest target should be Stephen Vogt of the Athletics.
Mike Rizzo and Billy Beane have worked numerous deals together, so there's no doubt that they could get together here and make a deal. The question is going to be, what is Beane's asking price for his 32 year old catcher who still has four years of team control left? If I were Beane, the asking price would be high, and if I'm Mike Rizzo, depending on how high the asking price is (obviously no Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, or Victor Robles), I'd probably be willing to meet it. Vogt is an extremely versatile, left handed hitting catcher. Vogt doesn't only play catcher, he has played first base and both corner outfield positions throughout his career. This is a guy who isn't going to cost you a whole lot being that he is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and is going to bring some pop to the lineup. He is a .255 career hitter and has hit 32 home runs over the past two years. The only red flag is Vogt is a .264 career hitter against right handed pitching and a .215 career hitter against left handers, so this could turn into a platoon behind the plate where Severino plays against lefties and Vogt plays against righties.
There are obviously more moves to be made with the bullpen and bench, but those will come sporadically throughout the offseason and some may even come in house. By adding Melancon, Fowler, and Vogt, the Nationals would put themselves in prime position to compete for a World Series Championship without breaking the bank. By splurging to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals would spend all of their money on one player without addressing their other needs. It seems like a no brainer to me, and in the end, I think it will be a no brainer to Mike Rizzo as well.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
The Gift That Keeps Giving
This can't be 2015 all over again, can it? I've kept quiet all year through the ups and downs of this season, but I've officially had enough. The man crush that seems to exist between Mike Rizzo and Jonathan Papelbon has to end. Plain and simple, Jonathan Papelbon is far and away the worst acquisition that a General Manager of a Major League Baseball team has made in the past five years. How is a guy who was able to turn Steven Souza, Jr. into Joe Ross and Trea Turner stupid enough to trade for a clubhouse cancer who 29 other Major League teams wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole?
He made a grand entrance last year by blowing 2 of his 9 save opportunities and then choking out Bryce Harper in one of the final games of the season. You'd think his 77% conversion rate on save opportunities combined with the fact that he choked out the NL MVP would be enough to either release him or try and trade him (who the hell would want him though), but no, Rizzo decided it would be a great idea to hang onto him. I couldn't be happier that he did! Papelbon now has 3 blown saves in 22 opportunities this year along with a 2-4 record and is sporting a sweet 4.18 ERA. If you were curious, that ERA is the worst of any current closer in the National League. Frankly, I don't care if he's hurt, old, or just plain sucks. He has no business being a closer on a first place team. If Mike Rizzo and the Lerners can't handle releasing him and having to eat the rest of the money on his salary, then so be it, give him mop up opportunities in a 9-2 game every once in a while, but I don't want to see him in one more close game for the rest of the year.
The man who made this dream come true, Mike Rizzo, should really be thinking long and hard about who he wants to take over for Papelbon in the 9th. One of the problems here is Rizzo is always looking to either pay pennies on the dollar for a player or to get the other team to pick up most of a player's remaining salary before he acquires them. That's great and all, but this year's trade market doesn't allow for that. The Cubs already gave up their top prospect, a Major League reliever, and two other Minor League prospects to essentially rent Aroldis Chapman for 2-3 months. That's a steep price to pay, but at the same time, if you think you're one or two pieces away from a World Series, then it's well worth it. Are the Nationals one or two pieces away? It's quite possible.
The Nationals two glaring weaknesses are a leadoff hitter and a closer. Well, the Nationals may fill that first need in house. Trea Turner has looked very good over the past couple of weeks and his speed is a game changer. Will he play center field everyday? Probably not, but Ben Revere is still available to play center and hit leadoff when Trea isn't. Revere has truly hit into some awful luck this year, he's hitting around .220, but he's hitting line drives right at people, he could easily be hitting around .260 right now. Still not great from your leadoff hitter, but it's a lot easier to swallow than .220. The Nationals could also try and fill their need for a closer in house, but it would be a terrible idea. Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen would be the two most likely candidates, but then you're taking away one of your more reliable set up men and turning them into your closer. It shortens your bullpen by one man essentially.
The available closers currently on the market are Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, David Robertson, Jeremy Jeffress, Huston Street (who has been worse than Papelbon), and possibly a couple of others. The Nationals main targets would be Miller, Davis, Jeffress, and Robertson, probably in that order. Here's the tricky part though, Rizzo doesn't want to pay the price tag for any of these guys. Miller and Davis would both cost two of the Nationals top four prospects plus another couple of mid tier prospects. Jeffress would probably cost one of the Nationals top four prospects plus a couple of mid tier prospects. Robertson, however, may come the cheapest. He's in the midst of his worst season and he's still owed $25 million over the next two years. If the Nationals are willing to pick up the majority of that, they would probably be able to hang onto their upper tier prospects and make a deal happen with a couple of their lesser prospects. Would I love to see Rizzo deal for Andrew Miller? Absolutely, he's one of the most dominant relievers in the game, but the reality is Rizzo isn't going to do that. Don't ask me why he's set on hanging onto three of the games top pitching prospects when he has four of his five rotation spots set for the next three years. Trust me, dealing one of them truly wouldn't hurt if it meant acquiring Miller.
Knowing that Rizzo isn't going to meet the price tag for Miller or Davis, I'm really hoping he makes a move for David Robertson. Robertson is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 11.9 strikeouts over 9 innings throughout his career and he has postseason experience. His numbers are down and part of that may be that he never settled into Chicago. Maybe he needs a change of scenery.
Here's a possible outline of a Robertson deal:
Nationals receive: David Robertson and $10 million
White Sox receive: A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, and Trevor Gott
I'm not sure that would get the deal done, but that would be my starting point. If the White Sox ask for somebody like Koda Glover instead of Gott, I would probably do it. This kind of deal would allow the Nationals to hang onto Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, Reynaldo Lopez, and Erik Fedde, all of whom they don't want to deal. It's time for Rizzo to make a deal and get a closer who we can trust.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Random Spring Training Thoughts
Spring Training is in full swing now and games are set to begin today when the Nationals travel to Port Charlotte to take on the Rays. Really, all that we can hope for this Spring is to stay healthy. Last Spring, the Nationals left Viera with Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Casey Janssen all headed to the disabled list. A couple things to keep an eye on during Spring Training:
1) Where is Dusty going to hit Bryce Harper and who is going to protect him in the lineup? I'd be shocked if Bryce hit fourth, but it depends on how Dusty likes to structure his lineup. By putting Bryce third instead of fourth, Bryce will get more at bats throughout the course of the year. It will also allow Dusty to balance the lineup out by going Revere (left handed), Rendon/Werth (right haneded), Bryce (left handed). That brings us to the next point, who hits in front of Bryce. The Nationals have a real luxury here this year. If Anthony Rendon is healthy, he's obviously the front runner to hit second. He gets on base, hits for some power, and is a bat that pitchers can't overlook with Bryce on deck. You could also go Jayson Werth here. Sure he had an awful year last year, but the reason he's an option is because he sees A TON of pitches and gets on base. He's probably the most capable number two hitter if Dusty wants to do a lot of hit and runs with Ben Revere on first. Daniel Murphy is the last option to hit second, however, if he's hitting second, the Nationals would start their lineup with three left handed hitters in a row. You probably don't want to do that. Murphy is an option though because he puts the ball in play at such a high clip. In putting Revere and Murphy first and second you would have two of the highest contact guys in the Major Leagues last year. My prediction is Dusty goes Revere, Rendon, then Bryce, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went with Werth to hit second either.
2) What's going to happen with the rotation? Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez have locked up the first three spots in the rotation, but the last two are there for the taking between three guys. It would be a big upset if Joe Ross didn't end up with one of the spots, but if Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker wanted to go with the two older guys and save Ross for a June/July call up they could hypothetically do that. Assuming Ross takes the fourth spot though, the fifth spot would come down to Tanner Roark and Bronson Arroyo. This is a tough one, although I wish it weren't. Tanner deserves a spot in this rotation. He deserved a spot in the rotation last year, there just wasn't any room. However, Arroyo and Dusty Baker are good friends from their days together in Cincinnati. Arroyo is also said to be a great clubhouse presence and no matter what any of us want to think, the Nationals need that. As long as Arroyo is healthy, my prediction is that Tanner puts up better stats in Spring Training, but Dusty Baker goes with Arroyo for the fifth spot and Tanner heads back to the bullpen.
3) Speaking of the bullpen, it's going to be interesting to see what Dusty Baker decides to do with the final few spots. It looks like Jonathan Papelbon, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, and Yusmeiro Petit are the locks to make the bullpen. That most likely leaves three open spots. Trevor Gott and Felipe Rivero are as close to locks as it gets, but the Nationals can still option both of them to the minors, so I wouldn't quite put them in the lock category. The last spot is Blake Treinen's spot to lose. Keep in mind though, Treinen has options too and Dusty has a lot of tough decisions to make. He has Bronson Arroyo, Burke Badenhop, Sean Burnett and Matt Belisle in Viera. Arroyo and Belisle played for him with the Reds. If Arroyo breaks camp as the fifth starter, then Tanner Roark gets that last spot and Treinen heads to the minors. If Arroyo doesn't make the team, Treinen most likely wins the last spot, but don't be surprised if Badenhop or Belisle steal the last spot from him. Dusty Baker is notorious for favoring veterans over younger guys, so don't be surprised if some of the younger guys get sent to the minors and more veterans make the team.
4) Is it going to be Danny Espinosa, Stephen Drew, or Trea Turner at shortstop to open up the season? I think all Nationals fans and probably even most of the Nationals front office want Trea Turner to win the job, but that's probably not going to happen. Unfortunately, even if Turner hits .400 and plays great defense this Spring, Mike Rizzo is going to have to be thinking about the business side of this. If the Nationals keep Turner in the minors until late May or early June, they control him for another year. Mike Rizzo did the same thing with Bryce Harper in 2012. Its also the same reason Kris Bryant didn't make the Cubs opening day roster last year but was called up two weeks into the season. It may not be fair to the player, but it's part of the game and the Nationals and Nationals fans will benefit in the long run by stashing Turner in the Minors for 6 weeks or so. That leaves Espinosa as the favorite to win the job. Unless Stephen Drew reverts back to the player he was with the Diamondbacks, I expect him to be nothing more than a left handed bat off the bench that will be good for a few spot starts here and there.
5) The most intriguing player in Nationals Spring Training right now is Lucas Giolito. He's not going to make the opening day roster, but I can't wait to see him pitch. Remember when the Mets had Matt Harvey and Jacob de Grom in the rotation last year and we were thinking "Ok there's no way they have anybody else like these two" and then they brought up Noah Syndergaard? It's the Nationals turn to play that card. In late June/early July, if any one of Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, or Bronson Arroyo/Tanner Roark are struggling, expect to see Giolito make his debut. A rotation headlined by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Lucas Giolito could make for an incredibly exciting NL East division race.
We may not see a regular lineup until a week or two into Spring Training games, possibly longer. Dusty needs to manager Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth's health and make sure they're 100% ready to go for Opening Day. If that means that they only play 10 games or so in Spring Training, then so be it. If the Nationals are going to make the playoffs this season, it will be because their key guys stayed healthy for the majority of the season.
1) Where is Dusty going to hit Bryce Harper and who is going to protect him in the lineup? I'd be shocked if Bryce hit fourth, but it depends on how Dusty likes to structure his lineup. By putting Bryce third instead of fourth, Bryce will get more at bats throughout the course of the year. It will also allow Dusty to balance the lineup out by going Revere (left handed), Rendon/Werth (right haneded), Bryce (left handed). That brings us to the next point, who hits in front of Bryce. The Nationals have a real luxury here this year. If Anthony Rendon is healthy, he's obviously the front runner to hit second. He gets on base, hits for some power, and is a bat that pitchers can't overlook with Bryce on deck. You could also go Jayson Werth here. Sure he had an awful year last year, but the reason he's an option is because he sees A TON of pitches and gets on base. He's probably the most capable number two hitter if Dusty wants to do a lot of hit and runs with Ben Revere on first. Daniel Murphy is the last option to hit second, however, if he's hitting second, the Nationals would start their lineup with three left handed hitters in a row. You probably don't want to do that. Murphy is an option though because he puts the ball in play at such a high clip. In putting Revere and Murphy first and second you would have two of the highest contact guys in the Major Leagues last year. My prediction is Dusty goes Revere, Rendon, then Bryce, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went with Werth to hit second either.
2) What's going to happen with the rotation? Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez have locked up the first three spots in the rotation, but the last two are there for the taking between three guys. It would be a big upset if Joe Ross didn't end up with one of the spots, but if Mike Rizzo and Dusty Baker wanted to go with the two older guys and save Ross for a June/July call up they could hypothetically do that. Assuming Ross takes the fourth spot though, the fifth spot would come down to Tanner Roark and Bronson Arroyo. This is a tough one, although I wish it weren't. Tanner deserves a spot in this rotation. He deserved a spot in the rotation last year, there just wasn't any room. However, Arroyo and Dusty Baker are good friends from their days together in Cincinnati. Arroyo is also said to be a great clubhouse presence and no matter what any of us want to think, the Nationals need that. As long as Arroyo is healthy, my prediction is that Tanner puts up better stats in Spring Training, but Dusty Baker goes with Arroyo for the fifth spot and Tanner heads back to the bullpen.
3) Speaking of the bullpen, it's going to be interesting to see what Dusty Baker decides to do with the final few spots. It looks like Jonathan Papelbon, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, and Yusmeiro Petit are the locks to make the bullpen. That most likely leaves three open spots. Trevor Gott and Felipe Rivero are as close to locks as it gets, but the Nationals can still option both of them to the minors, so I wouldn't quite put them in the lock category. The last spot is Blake Treinen's spot to lose. Keep in mind though, Treinen has options too and Dusty has a lot of tough decisions to make. He has Bronson Arroyo, Burke Badenhop, Sean Burnett and Matt Belisle in Viera. Arroyo and Belisle played for him with the Reds. If Arroyo breaks camp as the fifth starter, then Tanner Roark gets that last spot and Treinen heads to the minors. If Arroyo doesn't make the team, Treinen most likely wins the last spot, but don't be surprised if Badenhop or Belisle steal the last spot from him. Dusty Baker is notorious for favoring veterans over younger guys, so don't be surprised if some of the younger guys get sent to the minors and more veterans make the team.
4) Is it going to be Danny Espinosa, Stephen Drew, or Trea Turner at shortstop to open up the season? I think all Nationals fans and probably even most of the Nationals front office want Trea Turner to win the job, but that's probably not going to happen. Unfortunately, even if Turner hits .400 and plays great defense this Spring, Mike Rizzo is going to have to be thinking about the business side of this. If the Nationals keep Turner in the minors until late May or early June, they control him for another year. Mike Rizzo did the same thing with Bryce Harper in 2012. Its also the same reason Kris Bryant didn't make the Cubs opening day roster last year but was called up two weeks into the season. It may not be fair to the player, but it's part of the game and the Nationals and Nationals fans will benefit in the long run by stashing Turner in the Minors for 6 weeks or so. That leaves Espinosa as the favorite to win the job. Unless Stephen Drew reverts back to the player he was with the Diamondbacks, I expect him to be nothing more than a left handed bat off the bench that will be good for a few spot starts here and there.
5) The most intriguing player in Nationals Spring Training right now is Lucas Giolito. He's not going to make the opening day roster, but I can't wait to see him pitch. Remember when the Mets had Matt Harvey and Jacob de Grom in the rotation last year and we were thinking "Ok there's no way they have anybody else like these two" and then they brought up Noah Syndergaard? It's the Nationals turn to play that card. In late June/early July, if any one of Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross, or Bronson Arroyo/Tanner Roark are struggling, expect to see Giolito make his debut. A rotation headlined by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Lucas Giolito could make for an incredibly exciting NL East division race.
We may not see a regular lineup until a week or two into Spring Training games, possibly longer. Dusty needs to manager Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth's health and make sure they're 100% ready to go for Opening Day. If that means that they only play 10 games or so in Spring Training, then so be it. If the Nationals are going to make the playoffs this season, it will be because their key guys stayed healthy for the majority of the season.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
It's Time to Re-Sign Ian
It's February 10th and Spring Training is set to begin in 10 days for the Washington Nationals. As of today, Ian Desmond is still a free agent. Yes, the man who has been a fixture at shortstop for the Nationals for the past six seasons still doesn't know where he's going to play this season. Many people want to point to the fact that his batting average and OPS have fallen each of the past four seasons. That's a bit dramatic though if you take a deeper look at it.
In 2012, Ian had a career year and helped lead the Nationals to their first division title. He hit .292 with 25 home runs and 33 doubles, which was good for a .845 OPS. He finished 16th on the NL MVP ballot that season. Could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure he could have, but that was never a realistic expectation. Ian followed up his 2012 campaign by hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 38 doubles in 2013, which was good for a .784 OPS. His 2013 season was a hell of a season, not just for a shortstop, but for anybody. Again, could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure, but again, he probably wasn't going to. Ian Desmond had never hit above .269 before his 2012 season. In his six years in the minor leagues, Ian was a .259 hitter with a .714 OPS. So why all of a sudden are people wondering where the guy went that hit .292 and .280? It was a mirage, Ian was playing at an unsustainable level compared to how he had played in his previous 8 years in professional baseball. Ian's 2015 season was abysmal, there's no getting around that. However, in 2014, Ian hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, 24 stolen bases and a .743 OPS. That's a season that you can expect year in and year out from Ian Desmond. Show me five other shortstops who are going to put that kind of season together for you over the next three to four years. You can't. In 2015, Ian hit .233 with 19 home runs. He struck out 187 times. He was awful. He was also haunted by a first half which saw him hit .211. He was no better than a replacement level player. He battled back to hit .262 in the second half though with 12 home runs. The second half Ian Desmond was the real Ian.
You can form whatever opinion you want about Ian Desmond, but if you're a Nationals fan, there's no denying that he would make this team better this year. He won't hit .233 again this season. He just won't. Just like he won't hit .292 ever again in his career. Those two seasons were outliers, you're better off acting as if they never happened. The fact that teams don't want to touch him because of his awful year last year is asinine. It's time for the Nationals and Ian to work something out that benefits both parties. I know Mike Rizzo said Ian won't be back, but you mean to tell me the longer Ian sits there that Rizzo doens't at least thing about it? Trea Turner is almost ready, but he could still use another few months (or up to a year) in the minors. No need to rush him up. There will be a need to rush him up though if Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew are expected to play shortstop all year. Danny Espinosa is a great utility guy and a great guy to have on your team. With that being said, he had one of his best seasons in the Majors last year by hitting .240 with 13 home runs. If it were you, would you put your money on Espinosa hitting .240 or better next year or Ian hitting .233 or better next year? I'd put my money on Ian. That's no knock on Espinosa, the fact of the matter is Ian is the better hitter and Espinosa is the better defender.
The Nationals need to take a chance here. The Nationals will assume 100% of the risk, but the reward could be huge. If you get 2014 Ian Desmond who hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, then you just added a major threat to the middle of an already revamped and potent lineup. A two year contract with an opt out after one year should be enough to get Ian back in Washington. Let's say its a two year $18 million deal with $12 million to be paid this year and $6 million next year if he opts to stay. If Ian comes anywhere close to the guy we saw from 2012-2014, then he opts out and gets a very nice payday somewhere else. In turn, the Nationals add another big bat to the lineup this year and can still slap Ian with the qualifying offer next offseason. It could be a win-win for Ian and the Nationals. If Ian has another season like he did last year and he happens to stay in 2017, then the Nationals are on the hook for $6 million. You can't worry about the $6 million. Nate McLouth pocketed almost $6 million of the Lerner's money last year sitting on his couch. So, Ted Lerner and Mike Rizzo - it's time to bring Desmond back to the District.
Last thing - If you're still not convinced, take a look at the potential lineups. Keep in mind Danny Espinosa hit .158 in 2013 and was sent to the minors then hit .219 in 2014. In case you were wondering, Stephen Drew hit .201 last season. Here are your options:
In 2012, Ian had a career year and helped lead the Nationals to their first division title. He hit .292 with 25 home runs and 33 doubles, which was good for a .845 OPS. He finished 16th on the NL MVP ballot that season. Could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure he could have, but that was never a realistic expectation. Ian followed up his 2012 campaign by hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 38 doubles in 2013, which was good for a .784 OPS. His 2013 season was a hell of a season, not just for a shortstop, but for anybody. Again, could Ian have repeated those numbers? Sure, but again, he probably wasn't going to. Ian Desmond had never hit above .269 before his 2012 season. In his six years in the minor leagues, Ian was a .259 hitter with a .714 OPS. So why all of a sudden are people wondering where the guy went that hit .292 and .280? It was a mirage, Ian was playing at an unsustainable level compared to how he had played in his previous 8 years in professional baseball. Ian's 2015 season was abysmal, there's no getting around that. However, in 2014, Ian hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, 24 stolen bases and a .743 OPS. That's a season that you can expect year in and year out from Ian Desmond. Show me five other shortstops who are going to put that kind of season together for you over the next three to four years. You can't. In 2015, Ian hit .233 with 19 home runs. He struck out 187 times. He was awful. He was also haunted by a first half which saw him hit .211. He was no better than a replacement level player. He battled back to hit .262 in the second half though with 12 home runs. The second half Ian Desmond was the real Ian.
You can form whatever opinion you want about Ian Desmond, but if you're a Nationals fan, there's no denying that he would make this team better this year. He won't hit .233 again this season. He just won't. Just like he won't hit .292 ever again in his career. Those two seasons were outliers, you're better off acting as if they never happened. The fact that teams don't want to touch him because of his awful year last year is asinine. It's time for the Nationals and Ian to work something out that benefits both parties. I know Mike Rizzo said Ian won't be back, but you mean to tell me the longer Ian sits there that Rizzo doens't at least thing about it? Trea Turner is almost ready, but he could still use another few months (or up to a year) in the minors. No need to rush him up. There will be a need to rush him up though if Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew are expected to play shortstop all year. Danny Espinosa is a great utility guy and a great guy to have on your team. With that being said, he had one of his best seasons in the Majors last year by hitting .240 with 13 home runs. If it were you, would you put your money on Espinosa hitting .240 or better next year or Ian hitting .233 or better next year? I'd put my money on Ian. That's no knock on Espinosa, the fact of the matter is Ian is the better hitter and Espinosa is the better defender.
The Nationals need to take a chance here. The Nationals will assume 100% of the risk, but the reward could be huge. If you get 2014 Ian Desmond who hit .255 with 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, then you just added a major threat to the middle of an already revamped and potent lineup. A two year contract with an opt out after one year should be enough to get Ian back in Washington. Let's say its a two year $18 million deal with $12 million to be paid this year and $6 million next year if he opts to stay. If Ian comes anywhere close to the guy we saw from 2012-2014, then he opts out and gets a very nice payday somewhere else. In turn, the Nationals add another big bat to the lineup this year and can still slap Ian with the qualifying offer next offseason. It could be a win-win for Ian and the Nationals. If Ian has another season like he did last year and he happens to stay in 2017, then the Nationals are on the hook for $6 million. You can't worry about the $6 million. Nate McLouth pocketed almost $6 million of the Lerner's money last year sitting on his couch. So, Ted Lerner and Mike Rizzo - it's time to bring Desmond back to the District.
Last thing - If you're still not convinced, take a look at the potential lineups. Keep in mind Danny Espinosa hit .158 in 2013 and was sent to the minors then hit .219 in 2014. In case you were wondering, Stephen Drew hit .201 last season. Here are your options:
- Revere - CF 1. Ben Revere - CF
- Anthony Rendon - 2B 2. Anthony Rendon - 2B
- Bryce Harper - RF 3. Bryce Harper - RF
- Ryan Zimmerman - 1B 4. Ryan Zimmerman - 1B
- Daniel Murphy - 2B 5. Daniel Murphy - 2B
- Jayson Werth - LF 6. Jayson Werth - LF
- Danny Espinosa/Stephen Drew - SS 7. Ian Desmond - SS
- Wilson Ramos - C 8. Wilson Ramos - C
- Starting Pitcher 9. Starting Pitcher
There's no denying the lineup takes a huge dip after Werth, but with Desmond in the fold, it doesn't have to take that dip.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
It's a New Year and a New Team
We're about three weeks away from Spring Training and it's looking like the Nationals roster overhaul is complete (barring a surprise signing/trade). The Nationals have caught a lot of flak this offseason for numerous reasons and much of it is unwarranted. We started the offseason with the Bud Black...wait...I mean Dusty Baker managerial hire. The harsh criticism the Nationals received for the way they handled hiring a manager was well warranted. The rest of the criticism for failing to sign the big name free agents that they've been involved in...well that's debatable.
The Nationals have negotiated with some of the biggest names in free agency this year. The Nationals have also signed none of those players. They had competitive (if not the highest) offers on the table for Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, and Darren O'Day. The fact that they were able to sign none of these players despite having very attractive offers on the table has led to many questioning whether or not the Nationals clubhouse is "toxic". Don't get me wrong, some of these guys may be worried about getting choked out if they go 0 for 4 one day, but that's absolutely not the reason the Nationals were unable to reel any of these players in. Darren O'Day would have had no problem joining the Nationals, but O'Day wanted a four year contract. The Nationals weren't going to offer that, but the Orioles were. Despite offering more money in average annual value, O'Day locked up $6 million extra by securing that extra year from the Orioles. As far as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes are concerned, the Nationals were reportedly offering the most money to both. However, the Nationals wanted to defer a lot of that money, much like they did with Max Scherzer. When you take the deferrals into consideration, the present day value of both contracts ended up being close to what Heyward signed with the Cubs and what Cespedes signed with the Mets. Not to mention, Cespedes secured an opt-out after the first season with the Mets, the Nationals offered an opt-out after year two. Cespedes also would have been absolutely nuts to turn down $27.5 million this season with the chance to hit free agency next year in a very weak free agent class. The problem here isn't the Nationals clubhouse, it's the way that the contract offers are structured. Some players are fine with the deferrals, but others aren't. Maybe Heyward and Cespedes were two players who wanted nothing to do with deferrals. While on the topic of deferrals, it may be a blessing in disguise that Heyward and Cespedes didn't sign. Don't forget, Rafael Soriano's contract back in 2013 contained deferrals as well. Starting in 2018, Soriano is owed $2 million per season through 2024. What a steal, right? Then you have Scherzer's contract which has deferrals totaling $105 million which will kick in starting in 2022 paying him $15 million per year through 2028. In 2024, the Nationals will be paying Max Scherzer and Rafael Soriano $17 million and they will both most likely be retired. If you want to find a way to screw up your budget down the line, this is a great way to do it. Adding in more deferred money from Heyward or Cespedes would have been a nightmare.
Although many have chosen to look at only the negatives to this offseason, there have been a good amount of positives. On December 24th, the Nationals signed Daniel Murphy to a three year $37.5 million deal. They followed that up by signing Stephen Drew to a one year $3 million deal. The Nationals also completely overhauled their bullpen, which included signing Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Shawn Kelley, while trading for Trevor Gott and trading Drew Storen to Toronto. The Drew Storen trade to Toronto may end up being the Nationals best move of the offseason. In return for Storen, the Nationals got Ben Revere, who may not be one of the most defensively gifted center fielders, but he's going to be a great lead off hitter and he's going to steal a lot of bases for you.
The Nationals offense sputtered last season at times without Denard Span at the top. Unless Mike Rizzo wanted a repeat of last year, one of the things he had to do this offseason was get a lead off hitter, and he did just that. Ben Revere is a career .295 hitter over 6 seasons in the majors. Revere is actually Denard Span's former teammate with the Minnesota Twins. They were both traded after the 2012 season, with Span coming to Washington and Revere going to Philadelphia. Revere comes with two years of team control (compared to Storen's one) and he will make about $2 million less than Storen (although the Nationals sent money to Toronto to offset the salaries). Revere brings tons of speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Over the course of about 2,500 at bats, Revere has struck out about 9.9% of the time. To put that in perspective, Denard Span, who I think Nationals fans would agree, rarely struck out, has struck out 12.8% of his at bats. The Nationals are getting a guy who puts the ball in play at an even higher clip than Span, and that's pretty impressive. Between Revere and Murphy, the Nationals just got a lot harder to strike out. That's huge because of the dominant arms they're going to be facing 19 times against the Mets next season. If you can't put the ball in play, nothing good can happen.
For those of you that are still upset about not being able to land Heyward, Zobrist, or Cespedes, please just remember one thing. The 2018-2019 free agent class, which is just three years away, is going to be the greatest of all time. Yes, the Nationals have some deferred money on the books, but luckily, as of today, the Nationals only have two players under contract following the 2018 season (that does not include arbitration eligible players such as Anthony Rendon, Michael Taylor, etc.). Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey, among others are all slated to become free agents in the 2018-2019 offseason. Of course the Nationals want to keep Harper, but it's probably going to take a $400-500 million commitment to make it happen. What's even more scary? The Nationals won't be the only team ready to make that commitment. The Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, and Phillies (yes, the Phillies) among others, all have substantial money coming off the books and will be right there with the Nationals ready to throw money at all of these players, with Harper being the main prize. The point is, the Nationals have to be cognizant of that and that may be the reason they were bargain shopping and not going all in this offseason. Jason Heyward was an exception and it was widely speculated that he would receive an opt-out clause to make him a free agent again prior to 2018-2019, which he did. If you're the Nationals, you want to commit to short term deals. Nothing above three years, which is exactly what they've been able to do this offseason.
Are the Nationals the favorites in the NL East? No, especially not after the Mets landed Cespedes for at least another year. Being the favorite means nothing though. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East last year, but injuries happen and players can under perform. The Nationals are in great position to challenge the Mets for the NL East title. The lineup and the bullpen have both been revamped. Don't forget, the Nationals have two weapons sitting in the minor leagues in Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. These two guys are ready to contribute this year. Turner helps make the lineup even longer and Giolito can slide in between Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez to make the rotation down right scary. If the Nationals want to take back the East, they have to do one thing that the Mets did better than them last year. They have to beat bad teams and they have to beat them a lot. The Mets went 60-30 against National League teams under .500, the Nationals went 53-37 against those same teams. That right there is a seven game difference. The Mets won the NL East by exactly 7 games. Sure the Nationals going 8-11 against the Mets contributes to that as well, I'm not arguing that. If you want a chance at the playoffs though, you have to beat up on the bad teams at an extremely high clip. The Nationals will have 57 games against teams who are rebuilding or not expected to compete next year (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Colorado). That's over 1/3 of the season. You have to win about 70% of those games if you want to consider yourself a contender. The Nationals have the talent to beat those teams 70% of the time, if not higher. If the Nationals can stay healthy and beat the bad teams, this is going to be a fun season and an even more fun battle for the NL East crown.
The Nationals have negotiated with some of the biggest names in free agency this year. The Nationals have also signed none of those players. They had competitive (if not the highest) offers on the table for Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, and Darren O'Day. The fact that they were able to sign none of these players despite having very attractive offers on the table has led to many questioning whether or not the Nationals clubhouse is "toxic". Don't get me wrong, some of these guys may be worried about getting choked out if they go 0 for 4 one day, but that's absolutely not the reason the Nationals were unable to reel any of these players in. Darren O'Day would have had no problem joining the Nationals, but O'Day wanted a four year contract. The Nationals weren't going to offer that, but the Orioles were. Despite offering more money in average annual value, O'Day locked up $6 million extra by securing that extra year from the Orioles. As far as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes are concerned, the Nationals were reportedly offering the most money to both. However, the Nationals wanted to defer a lot of that money, much like they did with Max Scherzer. When you take the deferrals into consideration, the present day value of both contracts ended up being close to what Heyward signed with the Cubs and what Cespedes signed with the Mets. Not to mention, Cespedes secured an opt-out after the first season with the Mets, the Nationals offered an opt-out after year two. Cespedes also would have been absolutely nuts to turn down $27.5 million this season with the chance to hit free agency next year in a very weak free agent class. The problem here isn't the Nationals clubhouse, it's the way that the contract offers are structured. Some players are fine with the deferrals, but others aren't. Maybe Heyward and Cespedes were two players who wanted nothing to do with deferrals. While on the topic of deferrals, it may be a blessing in disguise that Heyward and Cespedes didn't sign. Don't forget, Rafael Soriano's contract back in 2013 contained deferrals as well. Starting in 2018, Soriano is owed $2 million per season through 2024. What a steal, right? Then you have Scherzer's contract which has deferrals totaling $105 million which will kick in starting in 2022 paying him $15 million per year through 2028. In 2024, the Nationals will be paying Max Scherzer and Rafael Soriano $17 million and they will both most likely be retired. If you want to find a way to screw up your budget down the line, this is a great way to do it. Adding in more deferred money from Heyward or Cespedes would have been a nightmare.
Although many have chosen to look at only the negatives to this offseason, there have been a good amount of positives. On December 24th, the Nationals signed Daniel Murphy to a three year $37.5 million deal. They followed that up by signing Stephen Drew to a one year $3 million deal. The Nationals also completely overhauled their bullpen, which included signing Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, and Shawn Kelley, while trading for Trevor Gott and trading Drew Storen to Toronto. The Drew Storen trade to Toronto may end up being the Nationals best move of the offseason. In return for Storen, the Nationals got Ben Revere, who may not be one of the most defensively gifted center fielders, but he's going to be a great lead off hitter and he's going to steal a lot of bases for you.
The Nationals offense sputtered last season at times without Denard Span at the top. Unless Mike Rizzo wanted a repeat of last year, one of the things he had to do this offseason was get a lead off hitter, and he did just that. Ben Revere is a career .295 hitter over 6 seasons in the majors. Revere is actually Denard Span's former teammate with the Minnesota Twins. They were both traded after the 2012 season, with Span coming to Washington and Revere going to Philadelphia. Revere comes with two years of team control (compared to Storen's one) and he will make about $2 million less than Storen (although the Nationals sent money to Toronto to offset the salaries). Revere brings tons of speed and the ability to put the ball in play. Over the course of about 2,500 at bats, Revere has struck out about 9.9% of the time. To put that in perspective, Denard Span, who I think Nationals fans would agree, rarely struck out, has struck out 12.8% of his at bats. The Nationals are getting a guy who puts the ball in play at an even higher clip than Span, and that's pretty impressive. Between Revere and Murphy, the Nationals just got a lot harder to strike out. That's huge because of the dominant arms they're going to be facing 19 times against the Mets next season. If you can't put the ball in play, nothing good can happen.
For those of you that are still upset about not being able to land Heyward, Zobrist, or Cespedes, please just remember one thing. The 2018-2019 free agent class, which is just three years away, is going to be the greatest of all time. Yes, the Nationals have some deferred money on the books, but luckily, as of today, the Nationals only have two players under contract following the 2018 season (that does not include arbitration eligible players such as Anthony Rendon, Michael Taylor, etc.). Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey, among others are all slated to become free agents in the 2018-2019 offseason. Of course the Nationals want to keep Harper, but it's probably going to take a $400-500 million commitment to make it happen. What's even more scary? The Nationals won't be the only team ready to make that commitment. The Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, and Phillies (yes, the Phillies) among others, all have substantial money coming off the books and will be right there with the Nationals ready to throw money at all of these players, with Harper being the main prize. The point is, the Nationals have to be cognizant of that and that may be the reason they were bargain shopping and not going all in this offseason. Jason Heyward was an exception and it was widely speculated that he would receive an opt-out clause to make him a free agent again prior to 2018-2019, which he did. If you're the Nationals, you want to commit to short term deals. Nothing above three years, which is exactly what they've been able to do this offseason.
Are the Nationals the favorites in the NL East? No, especially not after the Mets landed Cespedes for at least another year. Being the favorite means nothing though. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East last year, but injuries happen and players can under perform. The Nationals are in great position to challenge the Mets for the NL East title. The lineup and the bullpen have both been revamped. Don't forget, the Nationals have two weapons sitting in the minor leagues in Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. These two guys are ready to contribute this year. Turner helps make the lineup even longer and Giolito can slide in between Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez to make the rotation down right scary. If the Nationals want to take back the East, they have to do one thing that the Mets did better than them last year. They have to beat bad teams and they have to beat them a lot. The Mets went 60-30 against National League teams under .500, the Nationals went 53-37 against those same teams. That right there is a seven game difference. The Mets won the NL East by exactly 7 games. Sure the Nationals going 8-11 against the Mets contributes to that as well, I'm not arguing that. If you want a chance at the playoffs though, you have to beat up on the bad teams at an extremely high clip. The Nationals will have 57 games against teams who are rebuilding or not expected to compete next year (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Colorado). That's over 1/3 of the season. You have to win about 70% of those games if you want to consider yourself a contender. The Nationals have the talent to beat those teams 70% of the time, if not higher. If the Nationals can stay healthy and beat the bad teams, this is going to be a fun season and an even more fun battle for the NL East crown.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)