The Biggest Blow Yet

It’s bad...real bad. Let me try to talk you off the ledge though, because it sounds worse than it really is. Oh and for once, I’m not talking about the bullpen. I'll try my best to completely ignore the bullpen because at the end of the day, what more could we possibly say about this flaming dumpster fire that hasn’t already been said. No, what I’m talking about is the Nationals lineup, which has been getting knocked around all season, but to date, it may have just taken its biggest blow.

Losing Adam Eaton for the season in late April was a tough loss, but Michael A. Taylor has filled in admirably. The thought process was, if the lineup stays in tact minus Eaton, and Taylor can hit around .250, that the Nationals would be fine. But to lose Eaton and Turner now for an extended period of time is a big blow. Not many teams would be able to lose their top two hitters in the lineup to injury and continue to score runs at a high level, the Nationals included. So, here’s where we are:

Nationals lineup Opening Day                       Nationals possible lineup June 30^th

Turner                                                              Taylor

Eaton                                                               Goodwin

Harper                                                             Harper

Murphy                                                           Zimmerman

Zimmerman                                                     Murphy

Werth                                                              Rendon

Drew (Rendon was hurt)                                Drew

Wieters                                                            Wieters

If Dusty wanted to go way outside the box, he could move Rendon to the leadoff spot and leave Goodwin hitting second and Taylor hitting eighth. Rendon sees a lot of pitches and although he has more power than the prototypical leadoff man, his OBP is sky high at .402 right now. This lineup still looks deep and should have no problem surviving until Turner comes back (assuming Taylor keeps hitting), hopefully in the beginning of September. The biggest issue now is that our once deep bench is now a below average bench. Dusty can still call on Lind as his top pinch hitter, but past Lind, his options are Difo, Raburn, Lobaton, and newly called up Adrian Sanchez.

Here’s the thing though, this lineup and bench only have to survive for about a week and a half before some help arrives. Jayson Werth is expected to return after the All-Star break, so that would move Goodwin to the bench, providing some much needed depth there. It also deepens the lineup. As good as Goodwin has been, Werth has an ability to see a bunch of pitches each at bat, along with his .367 OBP this year is something you ideally want in your leadoff man. Once Werth is back, expect to see him in the leadoff spot and then maybe see Rendon in the two hole.

If for some reason Mike Rizzo decides that he needs to go acquire a shortstop, he can do that. There should be plenty available with Jed Lowry, Eduardo Nunez, and Zack Cozart topping the list. I know I said I wouldn’t talk about the bullpen, but I can’t help myself – the beauty of making a trade for any of those three shortstops is that each of those teams has a closer or a reliever that would significantly improve the Nationals bullpen. Oakland has Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, San Francisco has Mark Melancon, and Cincinnati has Drew Storen. Yeah, I’m completely kidding, Cincinnati has Raisel Iglesias.

Ideally, Mike Rizzo goes to Oakland first and tries to get Lowry, Doolittle, AND Madson. Why? A couple of reasons, but the biggest reason being the Nationals would acquire three players in this deal who are controllable after this year if they want them. Lowry is the only one with a club option, which is valued at $6 million, or it can be bought out for $1 million. Doolittle can’t become a free agent until 2020 and Madson will not be a free agent until after the 2018 season. It’s a move that helps the bullpen not only this year, but for the next couple of years without completely restricting the payroll.

Each of these deals would present complications though too. San Francisco looks like the best trade partner on paper. Nunez plays shortstop, can leadoff, and steals lots of bases. He could potentially fill right in for Turner until he returns. Melancon came to the Nationals in a deadline deal last year and did a fantastic job. The issue is, Melancon is owed another $53 million over the next three seasons and he has hit the disabled list twice this season. The Lerners don’t want to spend $500,000 to improve this team, so how would anybody convince them to take on $53 million? Not going to happen.

The issue with Cincinnati is Raisel Iglesias is young and under team control through the 2020 season. Not to mention, Cozart is having an All Star season at shortstop. The cost to acquire both of these guys is probably going to be too rich for Mike Rizzo to swallow. I would assume it would include either Victor Robles or Erick Fedde and then another 2-3 prospects on top of that. Rizzo is going to try to get through the trade deadline without giving up Robles or Fedde, but it’s going to be tough.

My best guess is Mike Rizzo approaches Billy Beane about Lowry, Madson, and Doolittle, but unless the Athletics are willing to send some money to the Nationals, I don’t know that it works. Something like Jed Lowry, Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and $6 million in return for Juan Soto, Sheldon Neuse, A.J. Cole, and Brian Goodwin could work, but who knows if the A’s will bite on sending the cash back. It would give the A’s a Major League ready outfielder and some rotation depth (remember that Billy Beane traded for A.J. Cole before, so he must like him) as well as two of the Nationals top six prospects. If the Nationals can’t work the deal with the A’s, look for them to try and get David Robertson from the White Sox for a couple of mid-level prospects and some cash and then add a utility player in a smaller deal to help fill the void on the bench until Turner returns. 

Who is the Real Problem?

We all knew it was going to happen, I just don’t think we knew it was going to be this bad. Even worse is it’s going to continue until Mike Rizzo is given the go ahead to actually solve the problem. I don’t think I’ve written a blog this year where the bullpen was not the center of discussion. The Nationals have lost a Major League leading 5 games when entering the 9th inning with a lead. In the past 3 games alone, the Nationals bullpen has given up 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Every single one of those runs was given up in the 8th innings or later and the Nationals, unsurprisingly, are 0-3 in that stretch. The starters are gassed. Dusty Baker feels like he has no choice but to ride them as long as he can, most times into the 7th or 8th inning. Who can fix it though? Who can make this right? Unfortunately, only one or two people can. I’ll give you a hint: it’s not Mike Rizzo and it’s not Dusty Baker.

Ted Lerner is worth an estimated $5.5 billion, making him the 3rd richest owner in baseball. The Nationals as a team, have the 9th highest payroll in baseball coming in at approximately $170.5 million. By no means, are the Lerners cheap, as evidenced by the 7 year $210 million contract given to Max Scherzer or the 7 year $175 million contract given to Stephen Strasburg (even including the substantial deferrals). The Lerners are however extremely finicky about where they spend their money. Any Scott Boras client can just have a blank check. A manager? Nice try, the Lerners think they can find somebody who can do just as good a job for half the money. After all, the product is on the field and not in the dugout, right? Wrong. I’m not going to go any further into the Dusty Baker contract situation. Ultimately, he’s going to get an extension at close to market value (probably about double what he is making now). This is, however, a prime example of the Lerners thinking when it comes to spending on this team.

A little under a month ago, Bob Nightengale from USA Today wrote that the Nationals and the Chicago White Sox had worked out a trade that would have brought closer David Robertson to Washington before Spring Training started. Now, before we go into specifics, lets recall that going into Spring Training, the Nationals didn’t have a closer. This would have brought back a bona fide closer. I’m not saying he’s on the level of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Mark Melancon. I am saying though, that this is a guy who has closed games for 4+ years. A guy who has been to the playoffs. A guy who has pitched in and won a World Series. The Nationals would have sent Jesus Luzardo and Drew Ward, their number 10 and 12 prospects, respectively, to the White Sox in exchange for David Robertson and approximately $12.5 million. Luzardo has not pitched ONE day in the Minor Leagues because he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. The Lerners axed this deal because David Robertson was owed $25 million over the next two years. Of that $25 million, the White Sox were willing to pay half. The Lerners weren’t content with highway robbery though, they wanted more. They refused to pick up the remaining $12.5 million over two years that would have been on David Robertson’s contract. Mind you, they will be paying Rafael Soriano $2 million per year from next year until 2024, but why pay for a player who may actually help you bring a World Series to Washington?

The Lerners are a problem. I can’t go so far as to say they are bad owners, there are plenty of those out there, but they surely are hindering this team from taking the next step. Mike Rizzo is doing his job as best he can. He’s trying to work out a solution for this bullpen. But as a GM, how are you supposed to convince a team not to ask for Victor Robles or Erick Fedde in a trade AND pick up the entire salary of the reliever they are trading? You can’t, it’s impossible. If you want to point to the MASN dispute as a reason for the unwillingness to increase the payroll midseason, that’s fine, but I’m not having it. This team is profitable with or without the increase in TV revenue. By no means are the Lerners hurting for cash. The only ones hurting for anything are the 17 guys on this team playing their asses off night in and night out only to see the 8-man circus out in the bullpen come in and blow another game.

So, what do you do when you have uncooperative owners and a bullpen that just flat out sucks? I wish I had the answer. I wish Dusty Baker or Mike Rizzo had the answer. I guess you just continue to ride it out and hope that somebody in the bullpen eventually steps up. Going on 2 ½ months of this nightmare makes it unlikely that somebody in the bullpen will just suddenly flip a switch, but stranger things have happened. You could just keep bringing minor leaguers up in hopes that one or two of them give you quality innings and get outs. Or, a very unconventional idea, is to use a rotating starting pitcher as your closer. Whichever starter is scheduled to throw his bullpen that day would become the team’s closer for the game. Sure, it’s extremely bizarre, but until this mess gets sorted out, it may just work.

Oddly enough, one man who probably could fix the problem immediately is Scott Boras, which is just plain sad. If Boras walked into Ted Lerner’s office and told him you need to trade for a closer, he would OK the next deal that Mike Rizzo came to him with. The obsession that the Lerners have with Scott Boras is borderline disturbing, especially because the Lerners will ignore suggestions from their own GM, and then turn around and listen to an agent who has no association with the team. But hey, on the bright side, Boras is Bryce Harper’s agent and as we all know, Harper is a free agent after next season.

Oh – and for the 100^th time this year, please trade for some bullpen help.