This is Our Nightmare

The Nats have officially put themselves in a bind. These next two series in San Francisco and Colorado are now must win series. They need to go 5-2 to end this road trip. Based on the fact that they are 4-9 over their past 13 games, that doesn't seem likely. If they want to get in and stay in the pennant race, they're going to have to get hot soon. Now is as good a time as any.

A 3-4 home stand against the Diamondbacks and last place Rockies really left the Nationals in a bad spot. On Friday, July 31st, the Nationals were 3 games ahead of the New York Mets. Fast forward to today and the Nationals are trailing by 3.5 games. For those counting, that's 13 days and a 6.5 game swing. The Nationals seem to be doing a whole lot of talking, but not much winning. There's no excuse as to why the Nationals are trailing by that much in the standings after a four game home series with the 56-57 Diamondbacks and a three game home series with the 47-65 Rockies.

The Mets are red hot and unless they shut down any of their pitchers, they aren't going to cool off. Their schedule is a cake walk with the exception of two, maybe three series for the rest of the year. Their road record speaks for itself, but that doesn't matter in the slightest. Four of their remaining eight road series are against teams that are 20+ games under .500 and don't even have a winning record at home. You have a bad home team and a bad road team, but the road team is going to trot out Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom? I'll take the road team, please.

As for the "oh the other team has an ace pitching tonight, why are we even showing up" Nationals, they have their work cut out for them. A four game set in San Francisco is staring them in the face starting tonight. The Giants are in a similar position to the Nationals, they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place and they are trailing the Cubs by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot. That doesn't bode well for the Nationals. This is a desperate team as well. The difference is, this desperate team can hit and close out games. I'd like to see the Nationals take three of four from the Giants, but a split would work as long as they go into Colorado and sweep the Rockies after this series in San Francisco.

Now for some venting. There are two things that need to change if this team is to get hot and actually succeed in the postseason.

Record Against Aces

The Nationals as a team are 3-10 against the following pitchers: Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Johnny Cueto. The rest of Major League Baseball is 44-89 against those eight pitchers. I get it, they aren't easy to beat. With that being said, the rest of Major League Baseball is beating those guys at a higher clip than the Nationals. I don't know if the Nationals realize it or not, but that's the type of quality pitching they would be facing should they make the playoffs. Those eight pitchers not only have a 10-3 record against the Nationals, but they also hold a 1.22 ERA over 111 innings against the Nationals. At that point it doesn't matter who is pitching for the Nationals, you're most likely not going to win the game if that's the run support you're receiving. You're basically telling your starter "Hey, the opposing pitcher is tough tonight, we may be able to get you one run, but that's about it." They may as well have not showed up last night and Tuesday night against the Dodgers. They would have scored the exact same amount of runs. The bottom line is good teams find a way to push runs across on these guys. I'm not asking the Nationals to score four or five runs against any of them, but if you can score two or three, it gives your pitching staff a shot to win the game. It's frustrating to look at the schedule and see who's pitching for the other team and in your head mark it up as an automatic loss. The hitting has to get better.

Lineup Change

Speaking of hitting, you have to give your team the best chance to win. Part of that is putting together a lineup that is going to put your team in the best position to score runs. The Nationals don't have that right now. The catalyst for their offense remains out and may be out for the rest of the year. So without Span at the top of the order, that means they have to find alternate ways to push runs across. Once again, the statistics are right in front of the Nationals coaching staff, but they've chosen to look the other way. Unlike many Nationals fans, I have no problem with Jayson Werth being in the lineup. He's making a ton of money, he has a proven track record, and let's be honest, who would you put in there instead of him? What I don't agree with is his spot in the lineup. Werth is hitting .188 on the year. OK, he missed all of Spring Training and he's missed another 71 games due to injury. He's not 100%, which is why he can't be hitting 5th in the lineup. I don't care who's feelings get hurt, who's mad, who's this, and who's that. It's go time, if you don't start winning, you'll be golfing on October 5th, not playing baseball. I'm tired of the excuses, we are 113 games into the season and so far all fans have heard is excuse after excuse.

Not only is Jayson Werth hitting .188 on the season, but with runners on base he's hitting .175. He's hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position and two outs. These are critical points in the game, you can not have your fifth hitter in the lineup hitting .182 with runners in scoring position and .143 with runners in scoring position with two outs. There are other capable hitters in this lineup that can be hitting fifth that will produce more runs. Say what you will, but the Nationals best option to hit fifth in the lineup is Michael Taylor. He's only hitting .244 on the season, but the majority of that is while hitting in the eighth spot in the lineup. That's a tough spot to hit from because the pitcher is hitting behind you so you're going to see junk all day long. The opposing pitcher has no reason to throw Taylor anything good to hit, if he walks him, so be it, he will face the pitcher instead. Taylor is hitting .292 on the year with runners on base, that number skyrockets to .371 with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either, he has 70 at bats with runners in scoring position and he is 26 for 70 with 37 RBIs. He also hits .333 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Isn't that the kind of production you want out of the middle of your lineup? Wilson Ramos surprisingly is another option to move up in the order. Again, only hitting .235 on the year, but with runners on base he's hitting .291. With runners in scoring position he's hitting .309 with 38 RBIs and with runners in scoring position with two outs, he's hitting .283.

It's all about putting your players in a position to win the game and I don't feel that Matt Williams is doing that. I'm not going to go on a fire Matt Williams rant because it's just not going to happen at this point in the season. That situation will work itself out in the offseason when Mike Rizzo has to decide whether or not to pick up Williams's option. If the Nationals don't make the playoffs and Rizzo picks up the option, then he's lost his mind and he's committed to losing for another year. At the end of the day, the Nationals have a lot of problems to work through right now. There are only 49 games left to work through these kinks, but as I said in the last post, the Nationals have the talent to do it. They need to be in the right mindset and the right position to do it though. The lineup has to change and the mindset on nights when they are facing top pitchers has to change. The bullpen management over the past 6 games or so has actually been pretty solid (the questionable lineups and decision to start Clint Robinson in right when Bryce needed the night off, were not solid decisions). Drew Storen's ballooning ERA is only slightly concerning. He's had some bad outings, so what, so does every reliever. I'd rather have him go through a rough patch now than have him go through a rough patch in mid-late September when we really need him. The Nationals have to right the ship starting tonight in San Francisco. They're losing valuable games in the standings and if they don't get it right soon, it's going to be too little, too late. 

It's Getting Worse...Hire Bud Black

I'm seriously baffled. There's truly not much to say that hasn't already been said or that hasn't already run through your mind. I don't think anybody can fully explain Matt Williams decision making process at this point, not even Matt Williams himself. I thought I was mad when I wrote the last post after the Mets series. Yes, the one where Williams neglected to use either of his best relievers in two close games while fighting the Mets for first place. Williams has actually found a way to infuriate me more though over the last three games.

On Monday night, Williams decided in a 5-0 game that it was finally time to bring in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. After he let them throw zero pitches in close games against the Mets, he decided that in a blowout they needed some work. Let me get this straight, in a tie game from the 8th inning on, you'd like to use Aaron Barrett and Felipe Rivero. However, trailing 5-0 in the 8th inning, you'd like to use your set up guy and closer. That's quite the philosophy. It's not going to win you many games, but it's definitely interesting! I was pretty confused at this point, but I wouldn't say I was mad though because bringing in Storen and Papelbon on Monday had no bearing on the outcome of that game. Williams wasn't done though, he had a plan for Wednesday night that was really going to put Nats fans over the edge.

Williams has essentially made it known without saying it that Gio Gonzalez is on an extremely short leash. His last start against the Mets, he went 4 2/3 innings giving up 1 run. Last night against the Diamondbacks, he went 5+ innings giving up 2 runs. Gio has historically been somewhat wild and known to walk a fair amount of batters. That's also what makes him so good though. It's an uncomfortable at bat for anybody up there against Gio. He struck out 7 last night and walked 1, he was pitching very well and worked out of numerous jams. Williams, of course, thought otherwise. Let's backtrack to the bottom of the 5th inning though. Gio was due up second in the inning and Matt Williams let him hit. Fast forward to the top of the 6th inning and Gio gives up a lead off single to Yasmany Tomas and then Williams pulls him. I just about lost it at this point. There is absolutely zero reason you would let Gio hit if you knew you were going to take him out the next inning if he let one batter reach. Seriously, no reason you would do that. Matt Williams punted an at bat in a close game for no reason.

To make matters worse, Williams showed he clearly has no clue what he's doing because he brought in Aaron Barrett. First of all, Aaron Barrett has a 4.60 ERA. He has no business being in a tie game or one run game. Here's the real kicker, Barrett has held opponents to a .196 batting average with nobody on base. If you want to use Barrett, let him start an inning fresh, that's when he's at his best. On the flip side, opponents are hitting .290 off Barrett with a runner (or multiple runners) on base. When Barrett came in, he was warming up next to Matt Thornton. Thornton holds opponents to a .196 batting average with runner(s) on base. The next issue is the Diamondbacks next batter after the Tomas single was Chris Owings. Chris Owings is a right handed batter, however, he hits .255 off of right handers and just .152 against lefties. So naturally, Matt Williams went with a right hander and Owings singled. He had Gio on the mound who is a lefty and Thornton, another lefty, warming up. It's honestly mind boggling. I don't know if he's decided not to look at those kind of stats, or if he just totally disregards them and goes with his gut. Whatever he's doing is clearly not working.

Once Barrett came in and blew the game open it didn't matter what Williams did. The only good managing decision he made last night was to not use Janssen, Storen, or Papelbon again in a blowout. There are two things that can save the Nationals season at this point. First, is getting Denard Span back. He's the table setter, the offense is so much better and much smoother with him at the top of the lineup (the Nats also need to resign him, but that's another story for another day). Second, they unfortunately have to fire Matt Williams. He has to go, there's no way around it. He has no feel for how to manage a bullpen in a close game. If you can't do that, your team is going to struggle to play .500 baseball. He doesn't even have reasons for why he's making certain moves. His post game interviews offer no reasoning behind his decisions. Not to mention, yesterday on The Junkies, Williams sounded completely defeated. I get it - answering the same question over and over is exhausting, managing a baseball team for 162+ games is exhausting, but that's the job. That's what you were hired for. You aren't doing your job right now, that's all there is to it. There needs to be a change. Absent a hot streak, the Nationals are in real danger of missing the playoffs during their "dream season" where they were supposed to breeze through the regular season. I'm not saying hit the panic button yet because this team has a ton of talent. If Rizzo would swallow his pride and admit he made a mistake in hiring Williams, then he could put Williams on a plane back to Arizona today with the Diamondbacks. That's not likely to happen though and ultimately on Sunday, October 4th, after the season finale against the Mets, Nats fans might be sitting on their couches stunned at the fact that the Mets are going to the playoffs and the Nationals are not.

Bud Black is waiting for a phone call and I'm waiting to see Bud Black in a Nationals uniform.

The Worst Possible Outcome

It's August 3rd and I'm about ready to start a petition for the Nationals to fire Matt Williams. Williams wasn't the only reason that the Nationals just got swept by the Mets which forced a virtual tie for first place, but he's a big reason for it. My last blog was about Jonathan Papelbon and how I didn't personally like the move mainly because of what it may do to the clubhouse. However, I did say that Papelbon is a very good pitcher. Having an 8th and 9th inning of Storen and Papelbon is a luxury most teams in the Majors do not have. Sure you can blame these losses on the fact that the offense couldn't manufacture any runs and I'd tell you that you have a valid point. The Mets do have one if, if not the best, starting pitching staffs in the Majors though. If you were expecting the Nats to drop 5+ runs every night against the Mets, then in all honesty, you have no clue what you're talking about. This was going to be a series where runs come at a premium, which means as a manager, every move counts.

There's no doubt that going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position is going to back to haunt you. The hitting in this series was absolutely awful. I could go on an on about how I have no faith in the Nationals offense in big games, but there's no point in doing that because it's already well documented. This is the same Nationals team that went 2 for 24 last October in the NLDS against the Giants. They can't push runs across in big games. It's an awful problem to have, but its also a problem that you can probably still win with because of the Nationals pitching. You need an experienced and competent manager to navigate you through the 2-1 and 3-2 games though. The Giants have that in Bruce Bochy and the Orioles have that in Buck Showalter. The Nationals do not have that in Matt Williams.

This brings us back to the Nationals having the luxury of having Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. These two guys have two of the lowest ERA's among relievers in the National League. In the biggest series of the season to date for the Nationals, their two best relievers pitched exactly ZERO innings. Not one appearance, not one inning. It's not like these games weren't close. The Nationals lost 2-1 in 12 innings on Friday and then 3-2, with the winning run being scored in the bottom of the eighth on Saturday. Are you kidding me? You're out of excuses Matt Williams. Completely out of excuses. You were a fine third base coach with the Diamondbacks and I think that's probably where you need to be. That way you don't have to even think about a bullpen decision.

Felipe Rivero, who has turned into quite a good reliever by the way, gave the Nationals two fantastic innings on Friday night. Then in the bottom of the 12th, Matt Williams decided to trot Rivero back out there for another inning of work. Keep in mind, Rivero was a starter up until 2014, at which point the Nationals converted him to a reliever. That means this entire year, Rivero had been pitching in a relief role where he would throw one or two innings. Rivero comes out for his third inning of work and promptly gives up a walk off homer. I'm still baffled, so I'd like to again point out that Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen are still just hanging out in the bullpen at this point. The excuse for Friday night was that the Nationals had two relievers who weren't available, but they wouldn't say who. I would assume Storen was one of them because he had pitched the previous two nights. I would also assume if the Nationals happen to run out of pitchers Friday night, Storen would have happily come in the game. There was no reason Rivero went back out there for his third inning of work. When it backfired, Williams had to come up with a quick excuse so he went with the famous "some of my guys weren't available". Whatever the case may be it was a garbage decision.

Saturday night though you're assuming all your guys are available except probably Rivero and Barrett who went 2 innings on Friday. In a 2-2 game in the 8th inning, you're most likely thinking here comes Storen. You're wrong. He's hanging out in the bullpen with Papelbon again! Talk about building camaraderie, those guys spent three days together without even touching a baseball! Matt Williams decides to go with matchups instead and bring Matt Thornton in the game instead. Thornton has been great for the Nationals again this year, but in a tie game in the 8th inning of the biggest series of the year, you'd probably like Storen out there. Matty boy makes the wrong call again, Nats lose 3-2.

I just can't watch it anymore. If you're going to lose big games, lose them with your best guys out there. Use some common sense. Would you bench Bryce Harper in favor of Tyler Moore because you like the matchup better? No, you wouldn't. So why would you do it tied 2-2 in the 8th inning of a a meaningful division game? Your two best relievers saw the mound at Citi Field a combined zero times in three games. I can't get over that. Unfortunately, I don't see the bullpen management ever getting better. Over a year and a half into the job, Williams still can't get a feel for the appropriate time to use his guys. Like I said, not being able to push runs across falls on the lineup, but not using your two best relievers in the most meaningful series of the year, that falls on the manager. The Nationals and Mets finish the regular season facing off against each other in New York and I'm honestly terrified at the thought of Matt Williams possibly managing a game that decides whether or not the Nationals make the playoffs. Bud Black is available, just saying.