Mattingly Out In L.A. & World Series Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to "mutually part ways" with manager Don Mattingly this morning. If the Nationals had a manager in place, this would probably be a meaningless headline for Nationals fans. The Nationals have not yet hired a new manager though, so expect to see Mattingly's name pop up within the next day or two.

Mattingly went 446-363 over the course of five seasons with the Dodgers, with an 8-11 record in postseason play. Mattingly has a lot of the qualities that Rizzo is looking for in his next manager, including experience and communication skills. Mike Rizzo actually had interest in Mattingly in 2009 before the job was given to Jim Riggleman and again in 2013 before he hired Matt Williams. In 2013, Mattingly was managing the Dodgers but the Dodgers were considering making a change even after playing in the NLCS and losing in six games.

Mattingly dealt with the divas and dealt with the egos in Los Angeles, and to his credit, he still somehow made it work. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball in 2014 and 2015, along with the second highest in 2013. You would think that would set a manager up for success, but that assumption would be wrong. A large chunk of that Dodgers payroll was paying for players who no longer even play for the team (Matt Kemp, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Hector Olivera). Just lumping huge contracts together and saying "hey look, we have all these superstars" doesn't mean you have a free ticket to the World Series. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke can only pitch so many games and when your best option behind those two is Brett Anderson, who got rocked in Game 3 against the Mets, there isn't much more Mattingly can do. Mattingly also had to figure out playing time for four outfielders with only three outfield spots. Three of the outfielders were making $18 million per season or more and the fourth was a (at the time) 22 year old diva, who, although he was the most talented of the bunch, needed to grow up.

Regardless of what anybody thinks, Don Mattingly did not have an easy job in Los Angeles. In fact, he probably had one of the toughest jobs in baseball. He was expected to win the division every year because of that enormous payroll. It didn't matter how bad his bullpen was, it didn't matter what kind of injuries he had to deal with. At the end of the day, if he didn't win, he was out. So here we are today, with another quality option for the Nationals.

Mike Rizzo keeps going back to his Arizona ties and interviewing people like Andy Green and Phil Nevin, but the best options are staring him in the face. I keep saying it, but I'll say it again, if Mike Rizzo botches this managerial hire, he's out. So why even take a chance? Do the right thing and hire Don Mattingly or hire Bud Black. If you want to go with Ron Gardenhire, then fine, go with Gardenhire. Side note, I'm taking Dave Martinez out of the discussion because I think he's in line to become the next Dodgers manager. I don't think its a coincidence that Mattingly and the Dodgers parted ways a day after the Cubs were eliminated, especially being that Martinez and Andrew Friedman worked together in Tampa. The bottom line is you have three successful, experienced managers staring you in the face right now. These are guys who know how to relate to the veterans and also know how to successfully develop the young guys. Don't do something stupid, Mike. Use your head, Andy Green and Phil Nevin are great candidates for the Marlins or the Padres, but not the Nationals.

World Series Prediction:

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays: In my previous post, I had the Blue Jays in six. That's clearly not possible. Toronto sends David Price to the mound for Game 6. If you recall, Price dominated the Royals through six innings until Ryan Goins botched a pop up to start the seventh and everything unraveled from there. Game 7 could go either way depending on if we see good Johnny Cueto or bad Johnny Cueto, but based on the past few months, I'm betting on bad Johnny Cueto. I'll stick with my original prediction and take the Blue Jays in 7.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: The Mets pitching has just been dominant this postseason and I don't expect to see it end here, even against the Blue Jays daunting lineup. David Murphy finally cools down, but Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes pick up the slack. The Mets win it in 6 games.

It's Almost Better Than Making The Playoffs

The inevitable has finally happened. We've reached a new era. An era where the manager's post game press conferences may give us some explanations for the decisions made during the game. We won't get any responses telling us that there is a game to win tomorrow, even after we've officially been eliminated. That's right, Matt Williams was officially fired as manager of the Washington Nationals this morning. It hurts not making the playoffs, but this is a nice consolation prize. Had the Nationals made the playoffs, this guy would be around for at least another year. He would be managing a team that may have less talent than this year's 83 win bunch. Now we have a shot to contend next year. Mike Rizzo has a ton of work and a ton of decisions to make this off season, but he's made by far the easiest decision already, and he's off to a good start. I'll get into some of the other tough decisions Mike Rizzo will have to make and give you some predictions as to who the Nationals may go after on another day. Today is all about looking forward to a new coaching staff in the dugout next year. 

The harder part of this decision was to relieve the rest of the coaching staff. Some of these guys have been with the Nationals and with Nationals players for almost ten years (Randy Knorr). The bottom line though, is this season was a colossal failure. That falls on everybody. Matt Williams will take the brunt of the blame, but the rest of the coaching staff is just as at fault. Side note, the offense actually scored the third most runs in the National League, so Rick Schu did a great job, but he was about the only one. Steve McCatty's message seemed to go stale this year after six years with the Nationals. Above all else though, Mike Rizzo had to give his new manager a clean slate. Not many managers come to a team with their coaching staff already picked for them. That's something Mike Rizzo did to Matt Williams, but it's not something he was going to be able to do again. 

As for the candidates, I'm sticking with three of the four candidates that I listed during my September 14th blog. Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Bo Porter are very likely to all receive interviews for the job. I listed Dusty Baker as a candidate on September 14th, but ultimately, I don't think he's in the conversation. It will be interesting to see if Rizzo decides to go with a guy with some experience, or if he goes with somebody who's never managed again. Clearly, hiring a guy with no experience backfired on the Nationals two years ago. That may persuade Rizzo to change his mind with this next hire, especially with his job seemingly on the line if the Nationals can't compete for a National League postseason berth next season. 

I don't know that Rizzo will actually interview more than three candidates. There's really no point because unless Mike Scioscia opts out of his contract with the Angels and decides he wants to come to the East Coast, there are only two candidates that should even be considered. Bud Black and Dave Martinez are the two names to watch as the Nationals managerial search gets underway. These two guys are different in terms of experience level, but the same in that they know what it takes to win.

Bud Black managed the San Diego Padres to a 649-713 record over the course of 8 1/2 years. More times than not, Black had little to work with in San Diego. He had solid pitching, but never had any bats, so the fact that he put together a .477 winning percentage with a smaller market team like the Padres speaks volumes to what he can do. Not to mention, from 2010 through 2014 (Black's last full season with the Padres), they finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. One of the Nationals biggest failures this season was the bullpen. This guy knows how to manage a bullpen and knows how to help develop bullpen arms. If Black is not one of the top two or three candidates on Rizzo's list, then he just isn't doing his job. 

Dave Martinez is probably this off season's hottest managerial candidate that has no experience. Martinez is currently Joe Maddon's bench coach for the Chicago Cubs. He's actually been Maddon's right hand man since 2007. Considering Maddon has a career .524 winning percentage as a Major League manager, including turning this year's Chicago Cubs team into an instant World Series contender, I'd say that Martinez has learned a good amount from Maddon and is ready to take the next step. The Nationals missed out on their opportunity to grab Maddon a year ago, but the opportunity to nab a possible Maddon 2.0 is sitting right in front of them. 

Ultimately, if I'm Mike Rizzo, I have Bud Black on a plane right now and I'm going to hire him as soon as I can. Like I said, this season was such a failure that Rizzo's job is now on the line. There's no time to experiment with guys who haven't managed before. It's time to right the ship and that starts with addressing your weaknesses. Last year's coaching staff was a weakness. Now Rizzo has the opportunity to turn that into a strength with a guy who has the experience, knows how to handle a pitching staff, and also knows how to handle a clubhouse. Pretty soon, the Nationals may have a new number 20 walking around in the dugout next year, and that's Bud Black. 

Short Bonus Playoff Predictions:

AL Wild Card Game - Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Give me the Astros. The probable AL Cy-Young award winner, Dallas Keuchel has already dominated the Yankees twice this year.

NL Wild Card Game - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they both win? Jake Arrieta is mowing everybody down right now and the Pirates haven't had an answer for him this season (they're not the only ones) as they're 1-3 against him in five games. Gerrit Cole is pretty good though himself. Give me the Pirates in this one, with the Cubs bullpen blowing it in the 8th inning. 

AL Divisional Round - Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers: Unless Cole Hamels pitches on three days rest on Thursday, the Rangers will be at a huge disadvantage on the mound. Either way, I think the Rangers are at a huge disadvantage. Blue Jays in 4.

AL Divisional Round - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros: Keuchel pitching Tuesday means he can't pitch Friday, which also means he won't pitch more than once this series. Royals in 4.

NL Divisional Round - St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Cardinals injuries ever going to catch up to them? Probably not because they're so deep and just keep bringing up prospects that contribute (The Nationals should take notes). I still like the Pirates in this series though. Pirates in 5.

NL Divisional Round - L.A. Dodgers vs N.Y. Mets: As much as I want both the Cubs and Pirates to win, I'd like both of these teams to lose. I actually am rooting for the Mets though in this one. Kershaw and Greinke will be tough to beat, but so will deGrom and Harvey. Mets in 5.

ALCS - Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals: Although the Royals have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, I don't know that they have the starting pitching to maneuver through the Blue Jays lineup. You may see Cueto twice, but other than Cueto, who has been shaky since coming to the Royals, there's nobody that scares me. Blue Jays in 6. 

NLCS - New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: I really like how the Pirates play. They have a deep rotation, a great bullpen, and a lineup that doesn't have many holes. They also have a guy named Andrew McCutchen who plays center field. They could just as easily be bounced out on Wednesday night, but that's alright with me. Pirates in 6.

World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Best bullpen in the Major Leagues. I'm a Nationals fan, if I know one thing, I know this - THE BULLPEN MATTERS, IT CAN WIN OR LOSE YOU GAMES. Pirates in 6.