Three of the signings are particularly notable, those being Heath Bell, Ian Stewart, and Dan Uggla. These signings could mean one of two things. Rizzo is either hoping that one of them can take a spot in the bullpen/second base, or he's just creating depth in the Minors. Knowing Rizzo, he's probably trying for the first option. Stewart is technically a third baseman, but he's played 33 games at second. I'm sure Rizzo isn't planning on moving Anthony Rendon from third back to second, so let's bet that Rizzo signed Stewart as a possible second base option.
Heath Bell could compete for one of the two open bullpen spots available. He hasn't exactly been reliable though over the past few years. Bell had a 7.27 ERA in Tampa last year before being released. Nats fans had to deal with Rafael Soriano for the second half of last year, who had a 6.48 ERA in the second half of 2014, so they're not too far off from each other. Bell represents a nice buy low option though. If he pitches well in the spring, you get a guy who can pitch the 6th or 7th inning for you. If he doesn't pitch well then you can stash him in the minors or just release him. Best case scenario, Bell makes the team and becomes a consistent 7th inning guy with an ERA in the 2's or low 3's. If Rizzo is looking for buy low options to fill out his bullpen though, I wouldn't mind seeing him bring in either Jesse Crain or a familiar face in Sean Burnett (or both). Both are coming off of injuries, but if you can get either or both for $1 million plus incentives, why not take a chance? Burnett played in Washington from 2009-2012 and in 245 games he had a 2.81 ERA. Plus he's a lefty, what's not to like?
Rizzo may be hoping that he can create a platoon at second base, most likely with Espinosa and Dan Uggla, but that's definitely not his best option. Espinosa clearly hits left handed pitchers better than he hits righties and Uggla over his career has hit righties better than he's hit lefties. They can both hit for power, but strike out a ton. Where can you honestly put either of these guys in your lineup? Both of them strike out in more than 27% of their plate appearances. The average Major Leaguer strikes out about 18-20%. For comparison, Ryan Zimmerman over the course of his career has struck out 19% of the time. So in a huge spot when you just need a guy to make contact and move a runner over, do you really trust Espinosa or Uggla to do that? I don't.
I get it, the team's payroll is high and these could just be options at second base and they could provide leverage in negotiations with Asdrubal Cabrera or someone else. The bottom line though, is we need somebody who is not only a good defender, but can hit. Espinosa is a great defender and a fantastic player to have on your bench, he tears left handed pitching up and that's a big asset to have coming off the bench. Cabrera over his career has struck out 19% of the time, he can hit .260 for you, and he can hit for power. Why are we waiting around, offer him a contract and let's move on.
I honestly don't see Uggla or Stewart making the team out of Spring Training (unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond are traded), but I think Stewart has the better shot of the two. He can play third (his natural position), but he can also play first and second base. Uggla doesn't offer that and he's also 35 years old. Sure you have Kevin Frandsen (although he's only under team control for one more year) who can do the same thing, but its always nice to have bench guys who are able to move around the infield for you. The 29 year old Stewart offers versatility and team control through 2017. Team control is something all GM's love. The main thing that is working against Stewart is he is basically the same player as Danny Espinosa except he's not as good of a fielder. Their offensive statistics are essentially the same, Espinosa has hit .228 in 5 Major League seasons, Stewart has hit .229 over 7 Major League Seasons. Espinosa has hit 55 home runs in 504 Major League games, Stewart has hit 61 home runs in 511 Major Leeague games. I don't know that the Nats can carry Espinosa and Stewart on the bench. There's really only one open bench spot with Kevin Frandsen, Danny Espinosa, Jose Lobaton, and Nate McLouth taking the other 4 spots. I would put my money on Tyler Moore taking that last bench spot, leaving no room for Uggla or Stewart. Moore is out of Minor League options and with Ryan Zimmerman taking over first base, they're going to need somebody to be able to handle first when Zim needs an off day or if Zim gets hurt.
On a completely unrelated topic, can we talk about the brilliance of Mike Rizzo? He trades Steven Souza, Jr. and Travis Ott, a single A pitcher taken in the 25th round in 2013 for Joe Ross and Trae Turner. Trae Turner can't officially be named in the trade since MLB rules prevent players from being traded within a year of being drafted. Turner was the Padres first round pick last June, so he will officially come to the Nationals in June of 2015. Turner will probably slot in to be the Nats 3rd best prospect behind the beast himself, Lucas Giolito, and almost Major League ready A.J. Cole. Ross is already ranked as the Nats 5th best prospect, per MLB.com.
When you really think about what was given up for what the Nationals got, you wonder how Mike Rizzo does it sometimes. Rizzo now has Giolito, Cole, and Ross in the minors, all 3 should be Major League starting pitchers within the next year or two (Cole could be ready by August or September of this year, or earlier if there is an injury). That is so crucial because Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are both free agents at the end of 2015 and Stephen Strasburg can leave after 2017. If the Nats can't extend Zimmermann (which I think they will be able to), Cole, Ross, or Giolito would be able to step right in.
Rizzo dealt Souza who is Major League ready, but doesn't have a spot with the team, for two prospects are are highly likely to make a huge impact on the team in about 2 years. Don't get me wrong, I think Souza is going to have a nice Major League career. He should be able to hit in the .275 range with 15 homers a year for the Rays. I would love to have a guy like that, but the Nats already have Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span locked into the 3 outfield spots, with Michael Taylor waiting in the wings to take over center in 2016. Getting Trae Turner is the reason this deal was made though. Shortstops are hard to come by, and Rizzo may have stolen his next shortstop from the Padres for a fairly reasonable price. Turner hit .323 through 69 games in his first year in the Minors. He also had 23 steals in 69 games, needless to say, he's quick. Really quick. With Ian Desmond set to become a free agent after 2015, the Nats now have a prospect in line to take over possibly in 2016, but more likely in 2017 (yes, that would mean the Nats would need a stop gap at shortstop for a year) if Desmond doesn't resign.
Rizzo just created some leverage for himself in Zimmermann and Desmond negotiations. Would there be some drop off if Zimmermann and Desmond left next year, absolutely. Nobody can argue that, but Rizzo is not only working to keep this years team competitive, but keep the team competitive for the next 5-10 years. It's a great trade and all Nats fans should be excited to see what Turner and Ross can bring to the team in 2016 or 2017. Now as I said in the previous post, lets go get that second baseman...
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