Just like I thought, the team with the best bullpen won the World Series. Well, sort of. My original prediction was that the Pirates would win the World Series. That didn't exactly turn out so well. The Pirates led the Majors with a 2.67 bullpen ERA, but right behind them were the Kansas City Royals with a 2.72 bullpen ERA. That bullpen was on full display during the World Series. Every game, you just got the feeling that if the Royals starter got them through five innings and they were within three runs, the Royals had a shot. Their bullpen gave up five total runs during the World Series, four of those runs were charged to Franklin Morales in Game 3, which was the only game the Royals lost. It was an absolutely dominating performance.
Watching the Royals maneuver through the playoffs this year should have given Nationals fans a sense of how far off this team was from being a World Series contender. The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the Majors (although statistically it's the second best) and their hitters struck out a league low 973 times over the 162 game season. For comparison, the second lowest strike out total was 1107. The Nationals were fourth in the Majors with 23 blown saves this year and had a bullpen ERA of about 0.75 higher than the Royals. Nationals hitters were third highest in the league with 1344 strikeouts this year. The Royals put the ball in play and have a shut down bullpen. The Nationals do not put the ball in play and have a pretty awful bullpen. If the Nationals want a shot at competing for a championship, they need to build a better bullpen and get guys in here who can make contact. Wait, scratch that, if the Nationals want to beat the Mets and take back the N.L. East, they need to build a better bullpen and get some guys who make contact. The Mets pitching isn't going away anytime soon. The only way you're going to be able to beat them is by putting the ball in play and making their defense work, as we saw the Royals do in the World Series.
Bud Black, who the Nationals will soon announce to be their next manager, should be able to improve the bullpen. As I touched on in a previous post, between 2010 and 2014, Bud Black's Padres finished with a top three bullpen in the National League three times. Even if Rizzo just wants to add a few smaller pieces and doesn't want to go spend big on the bullpen this off season, Black will make it work. He knows the right buttons to press and he knows how to play matchups. One thing Bud Black probably won't be able to help on, is hitters cutting down on strikeouts.
The Nationals stand to lose Ian Desmond to free agency. Desmond finished third in the Majors with 187 strikeouts this year, so whoever takes over for Desmond has to be able to put the ball in play more. The Nationals also have rookie Michael Taylor, who will take over center field next year, who also struck out 158 times last year, which was good for tenth in the Majors. Taylor has to find a way to cut down on strike outs, or else the Nationals may have no other choice but to look for a platoon partner with Taylor in center, despite his elite defense. Cutting down on strikeouts is going to be key in the Nationals postseason chase next year. If the Nationals were to add Ben Zobrist and resign Denard Span, they would be in business. Ultimately, I don't think Rizzo signs either of those guys, but if you want to chase down the Mets, those two guys would be a good start.
That brings us to the Nationals first decision of the off season (besides hiring Bud Black). Qualifying offers are due on November 6th, which is Friday. The qualifying offer is a one year offer to a player for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, this year that number is about $15.8 million. Obviously, if the player accepts the offer, he's under contract for one year. If the player declines the offer, he hits free agency. Once that player signs with another team, his former team receives the player's new team's top draft choice for next year's draft. The Nationals have three realistic options on who they may offer the qualifying offer to. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann are locks to receive the offer. They are also locks to turn down the offer and hit free agency. Denard Span is a tricky one because of his injury plagued 2015 season. Ultimately, Rizzo should make him the offer. If Span accepts the offer, then that's great, he's a fantastic lead off hitter and plays great defense as well. If he declines it, then he hits free agency and the Nationals get another draft pick. It's a win-win to me, but to Rizzo and the Lerner family, it's a lot of money to risk on a player who only played 61 games last season. I think Desmond and Zimmermann are the only two to receive the offer and I think that all three will have on new uniforms next season.
The Nationals have in house replacements for all of these guys, but if the Nationals want to stay competitive and take a shot at a World Series, they have some needs to address in free agency. My free agency wish list is pretty short and doesn't include a player who would require a $100+ million contract. The Nationals don't need another one of those. Here's the short list:
1.) Ben Zobrist - Ben Zobrist is at the top of my list and he should be at the top of the Nationals list as well. He puts the ball in play and can play second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and left field. The only downfall is he's 35 years old, so it would be tough to offer him anything more than a three year deal. If you offer 3 years for $45-50 million though, you may be able to get him to sign.
2,) Darren O'Day - Darren O'Day is borderline a must sign for the Nationals. Baltimore wants to keep him (and why wouldn't they), but if you offer 3 years for $24-27 million, they may let him walk.
3.) Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson - These are two other relievers that the Nats may target. Both would most likely come cheaper than O'Day and both have closing experience, which is something the Nats are going to need.
Since the Nationals stand to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, they may target a starting pitcher, although they probably don't need one. Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are more than capable of stepping into those two spots. However, if the Nats wanted to keep Roark in the bullpen, they could sign Mark Buehrle to a one or two year deal. That would bridge the gap until Lucas Giolito is ready to come up. Another outside the box move the Nats could make is trading Stephen Strasburg and resigning Jordan Zimmermann. I don't think this will happen, but it's worth considering. Strasburg would net a few top prospects and possibly even a bullpen piece. You would also be maintaining stability in the rotation by resigning Zimmermann. Zimmermann is going to be cheaper to resign this year than Strasburg will be next year. Zimmermann's contract will probably be in the $110-120 million range, while Strasburg's will most likely be in the $170-200 million range. It's something Mike Rizzo should at least consider, but either way, it's going to be a fun and exciting offseason for Nationals fans.
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