Let me start off by saying I trust anything that Mike Rizzo does. He's done enough for this organization over the past 7-8 years to earn the trust of all of the fans. With that being said, a mere two months ago, Tom Boswell wrote an article in The Washington Post quoting Rizzo's dad as telling Rizzo "don't fall in love with your own players." That's exactly what happened here. Max Scherzer was in fact drafted by Rizzo while he was with the Diamondbacks in 2006. Sure, Rizzo was here when the Nats drafted Jordan Zimmermann in the second round of the 2007 draft, but he was the assistant GM at that point, so we don't know how much say he had in this draft pick. In 2006 in Arizona, Rizzo was the Director of Scouting. Scherzer was his guy, there's no doubt about it.
Even worse is the fact that the Nationals have essentially told Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond "Yes, we had money to resign at least one of you, possibly both of you, but we decided to throw all of that money at another player. You've spent your whole career here, thanks for all you've done for us, but we're going in another direction." If I'm Zimmermann and/or Desmond, I'm livid. As professionals though, both of them will just tell you that's the business side of baseball.
For all of you dreaming of a Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister rotation, there's about a 30% chance that those five make up the Nationals rotation when the season begins. Zimmermann, Strasburg, or Fister will most likely be traded now. Even if you do go into the season with that rotation, what exactly did you upgrade? Don't forget, Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last year. Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Sure Scherzer's record is better, but Roark has the lower ERA and you're now sending him to the bullpen. Trust me, there's no chance that I'm arguing that Tanner Roark is a better pitcher than Max Scherzer. That would be asinine. But I am saying that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher and a great number 5 starter in the rotation. Do you really want to waste a year of team control by putting Tanner in the bullpen? Probably not. Last point about the Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister rotation; don't you have to score runs to win the game? The Nats lost their three playoff games last year by the scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2. I could be wrong but I don't think that's a cry to help the starting rotation. The starting rotation actually did their job, the bats were the issue.
The deal looks like it will be in the 7 year $210 million range, with an unusual structure where Scherzer will be paid $15 million over 14 years. according to Ken Rosenthal. Before I started this blog, I wrote that Jon Lester's 6 year $155 million contract pushed Scherzer into the $180-200 million range, which was close. Lester and Scherzer are both entering their 30's now with Lester having thrown an extra 360 innings or so than Scherzer. When you look at it based on how many miles each pitcher's arm has on it already, it makes sense Scherzer was able to get the extra year. So what will Jordan Zimmermann now expect? I would peg Zimmermann at 7 years for $170 million, although on the open market, he may be able to get 8 years from somebody. Would you rather have 30 year old Scherzer at 7 years for $210 million, or the 28 year old Zimmermann for 7 years and $170 million? Zimmermann has thrown way less innings, he's 2 years younger, and has put up similar numbers to Scherzer over the past two years. I also think the Nats could have locked Zimemrmann up this offeseason for less than $170 million, I think he would have taken around $160 million to stay. Clearly we aren't talking about chump change here, but for a team that was apparently "tapped out" financially with last year's payroll, the extra $40 million saved could have been used elsewhere
The "tapped out" comment is another reason why the Nationals are bound to trade one of their starting pitchers. By trading Fister they can free up $11.4 million and by trading Zimmermann they can free up $16.5 million. As I said, Scherzer's contract structured so that he will earn $15 million per year, a little less than Zimmermann is slated to make this season. I would love to see the Nationals keep everybody and make one final run at the World Series with this group of guys. Sure the payroll would be high, but over $40 million comes off the books next year with all the free agents this team is slated to lose. The MASN money will come soon, but at this point, it's up to the Lerner's (who are the third richest owners in baseball) to pull deep from their pockets and give this team one last chance.
With all of that being said, I'd like to welcome Max Scherzer to the Nats. The guy is an animal, he's gone 39-8 over the past two seasons for the Tigers. That's not a typo, 39 wins and 8 losses. That's insane. Add that to the Nationals already potent rotation and it's hard not to be excited about next season, whether it's with or without Jordan Zimmermann. We'll see how Rizzo handles the next few days and all of the trade rumors, but I would bet on hearing more big news from the Nationals within the next week to 10 days.
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