Extension, Anyone?

Spring Training is officially underway, with all pitchers, catchers, and position players having had to report by today. The next month or so is going to be slow but exciting. New players are getting to know the team, while older players are enjoying their time back together. We're going to get to see a few players this Spring that will be with the Nats "next wave" of players. The one we all want to see however, won't be at big league camp. Lucas Giolito will again be on a restricted innings limit this season and to try and limit distractions, Giolito will be preparing for the season in Minor League camp. There's no doubt that he will get a Spring Training invitation next year though with a strong shot of making the team if Doug Fister and/or Jordan Zimmermann leave via free agency.

The Nationals have 8 players on their current 25 man roster that will be free agents next offseason, four of them stand to be huge loses if the team can not resign them. Those four are Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Denard Span. Two of those four have already made it known that if they do not agree to a new deal before the end of Spring Training, there will be no more negotiating and they will become free agents following the season. Those two are Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann, two of the most important players on the team.

The Nationals projected payroll for the 2015 season is $162 million, which is a franchise record. The Nationals obviously won't have a payroll that high from here on out, which makes it so great that the Lerners have agreed to go all in with this team this year and keep everyone together. With that being said, almost $54 million will be coming off the books next year if all eight of those players depart via free agency. That would put the Nationals payroll at about $108 million (not taking into consideration raises in arbitration). That's not going to happen. I would estimate that on a normal season the Nationals are going to operate with a payroll around $130-140 million, as they did last year. Since the Nationals structured Max Scherzer's deal with a ton of deferrals, it means that the team has the money to spend going into next year. So what do they do with that money?

They could hypothetically try to extend other players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. They're all Scott Boras clients though, so unless Mike Rizzo wrote into Max Scherzer's mega deal that Boras had to negotiate with the Nationals on extending Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it's just not going to happen. Boras wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value, which is bad news for the Nationals. With that being said, the Nationals need to work hard to extend Ian Desmond within the next month to month and a half.

The value Desmond brings to this team is seen on and off the field. He's clearly one of the team leaders and he's a top 3 shortstop in the Major Leagues and if you don't think so, then feel free to list off all of the shortstops in the league who have had 20/20 seasons each of the past three years. I'll give you a hint, there weren't any. It's not going to be cheap to extend Desmond by any means, but it will most likely be way cheaper than extending Zimmermann. What would it take? Probably something like 5 years for $115 million could get the job done. He's on a one year, $11 million deal for this upcoming season, so the total value of the contract would go to 6 years for $126 million. That's the exact value of Jayson Werth's deal, but its one year less than Werth's deal. Speaking of Werth, his deal would come off the books in 2018, which would be just 2 years into Desmond's extension. So the point is, the Nationals can absolutely make the finances work. Some people may say, well Troy Tulowitzki's extension was for 6 years and $118 million, why would Desmond get more? It's simple, Desmond can stay on the field, Tulo can't. Even if Tulo is the better hitter, he's played 47, 126, and 91 games over the past three seasons. Desmond has played in 130, 158, and 154 the past three seasons. The deal would make Desmond the highest paid shortstop in the Majors. Desmond always said that he wants a deal that's fair and that isn't going to screw over the next guy in line for a contract. In order to do that, he needs to top Elvis Andrus's ludicrous deal that the Texas Rangers drunkenly gave him which was 8 years and $118 million. This proposed deal would top that in everything except for length of the contract, which isn't a fair comparison because Andrus is 3 years younger than Desmond, so obviously his deal would be longer. It's tough to hammer something out when there are time restraints and everybody is trying to get ready for the season, but this is a deal that has to be done. Sure Trea Turner is coming over from the Padres this summer to be the Nationals shortstop of the future, but by having Desmond resigned, you have your middle infield set for the next 6 years. Desmond will play shortstop until either 1) his contract runs out, or 2) Turner provides better defense at short than Desmond.

Yes, this scenario means Zimmermann would walk after the 2015 season. It's extremely tough to let somebody like Jordan Zimmermann walk away and only receive a draft pick back, but the moment Max Scherzer signed here, it was the only possible ending. Zimmermann's price tag is a bit higher than the 6 years and $155 million that Jon Lester got, but a bit lower than the 7 years and $210 million that Scherzer got. There is no way any team other than maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can justify having two pitchers on their roster with contracts over $150 million. The Nationals are deep in pitching in the Minor Leagues with A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, and others waiting in the wings. Tanner Roark is also sitting here waiting for his next opportunity to start after turning in a 15 win season with a 2.85 ERA in 2014.

There are a lot of tough decisions that Mike Rizzo has to make over the next month or so, but there's no doubt in my mind that he needs to get a Desmond extension done. You can lock him up now for around $125-130 million, but if you wait until he hits free agency, especially after a good year, you may be paying $150 million or higher and that's most likely not in the budget. Make it happen, lock Desmond up, and as much as I love Jordan Zimmermann playing for the Nationals, it's time to say goodbye because this will be his last season wearing a curly W.