At the time of my last post, the Nationals were 7 1/2 games behind the Mets and in sole possession of last place in the NL East. Since then, they've gone 12-3 and shaved 5 games off the Mets lead to jump to second place and 2 1/2 games back (if the Mets win tonight, 1 1/2 if they lose). For the first time this season, following an awful 6 game losing streak, the Nats are hot.
They're on their first West Coast trip of the year and they greeted Arizona with an 11 run outburst for their fifth straight win Monday night. Stephen Strasburg doesn't approve of winning streaks longer than five games though, so he had plans of his own. After going just 3 innings and giving up 2 runs to Miami on May 5th, Strasburg received a few days of extra rest and went back to work last night in Arizona. Most Nats fans wished he would have taken a few extra days off based on what we saw last night. Last night's performance, although the worst of the season for Strasburg, wasn't out of the norm. Stras hasn't been sharp at all so far this year, except for his start on April 19th against the Phillies. I would expect Boof Bonser (congratulations on your official retirement by the way, even though you haven't pitched in the Majors since 2010) to beat the Phillies though, so it's not an accomplishment to say "Hey guys, look at me, I went 7 1/3 and struck out 7 against the Phillies!". The problem is, Strasburg has the same type of stuff as Scherzer and Zimmermann, you name him, Stras can pitch with him - when he's on. He's just pitched into a few errors (what pitcher on the staff hasn't), and he's not locating his pitches. Leaving pitches in the middle or upper half of the zone isn't going to get you outs. It's going to give you exactly what Mark Trumbo gave you last night, a 3 run home run. Strasburg is famous for letting an error lead to a big inning for the opponent, and that element came in to play Tuesday night as well. The best part was, it was Strasburg who made the error on a bunt that he just forgot to pick up. I guess he wanted to see if that strong 12 MPH Arizona wind would be able to take the ball from the middle of the infield all the way to foul territory. Either way, he executed as he normally would after an error by giving up a sac fly for a run then gave Trumbo a meatball which was crushed into left field for a 3 run homer to end his night.
Strasburg's ERA now sits at 6.06 through 7 starts. By far the worst start to a season of his career. If he's hurt, fine, put him on the DL, let him get better. I don't think that's the case though. So, if this is a healthy Stras, then what's going on with him? First of all, he's throwing his fastball more and his changeup less than he ever has in his career, except for in 2011 when he had Tommy John surgery. In 2010 and 2011 that may have worked, he was throwing 98-99 MPH consistently. Since surgery, he sits around 95 MPH. Trust me, 95 MPH isn't anything to scoff at, but hitters can get to 95 MPH. For those on the radio saying his velocity is down from last year, you're wrong. His fastball is not down 2 miles per hour from last year, it's down .1 MPH (94.6 MPH this year from 94.7 MPH last year). Not even 1 whole mile per hour and for that matter, none of his pitches have decreased by more than .4 MPH. If you want to live in la la land and attribute it to fake stats, be my guest, but I digress. We're in an age where every team in the majors has a guy either in their rotation or bullpen that can hit 95+ MPH. Strasburg has a nasty curveball and a nasty changeup though. When he doesn't trust it or doesn't use it, then nights like last night happen. Strasburg is only effective when he mixes in all of his pitches, he still is a power pitcher, but he can't strictly rely on his fastball like he did during college up through his 2011 season in the Majors. Second problem, teams are hitting line drives off of Strasburg at a higher clip than ever before. Through 7 starts, teams are hitting line drives off Stras 27.1% of balls put in play, that's compared to 22.7% last year. If teams are hitting liners off of you, then they're seeing you well and they're not surprised by what you're throwing them. With that being said, his BABIP (batting average of balls put in play) is .398. I'll tell you right now, that's unsustainable, especially with the stuff Strasburg has. That number is going to fall probably .70 points or so once Stras settles in. Teams are also hitting .321 overall against him, which is almost .100 points higher than last year. Again, completely unsustainable. This looks more like a mental issue than a physical issue to me. Once he gets out there and starts thinking too much, he doesn't make the pitches he needs to. He has to trust his stuff, he's already proven that when he's on and dealing, he's one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Nationals need him healthy (mentally and physically) come October - although his home vs road splits have always been a disaster, so I guess Williams will need to work the playoff rotation around that to be safe, but that's another issue for another time. He takes the mound again Sunday in his home town of San Diego, which has historically been a pitchers park. Hopefully the combination of being home and being in a pitchers park will get him back on track.
One last thing on Strasburg, I've heard people saying the Nationals should turn him into their closer, they should send him down, or sit him for a few starts. Not happening and to be completely honest, all of those ideas are atrocious. I don't need to go into why each of those ideas are awful and ludicrous because its a waste of my time and your time. Strasburg is in the rotation and will be in the rotation until he hits free agency. Period.
The bullpen is starting to look a little bit better. Part of that has to do with Matt Williams getting more comfortable with the personnel out there. He's using Blake Treinen in low leverage situations, which is how it should be, and he's using Tanner Roark in higher leverage situations. Roark has proven to be in integral part of the bullpen and an extremely versatile pitcher. He can come out and give you 3+ innings if your starter gets into trouble early, or he can be your set up guy (or even closer) where he comes out of the pen throwing 95 MPH. I didn't even know he had that kind of velocity until this year.
Today's game was a nice win following the thrashing the Nats received last night. Rob Drake thought it would be fun to ring Bryce Harper up on a check swing and then toss him when Bryce got pissed that he didn't get help from the third base umpire. The joke was on Drake though when Bryce's spot came up in the lineup in the top of the 9th inning with the bases loaded and Michael Taylor hit a grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Nationals.
The Nats head to San Diego to take on a revamped Padres team for four games starting tomorrow. Let's hope for 3-1 in San Diego and come home 22-17, if not, at worst go 2-2 and come home 21-18. Stay hot boys, stay hot.
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