Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Time to Hold Somebody Accountable

Kevin Long was supposed to be the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long is not in fact the be all end all of hitting coaches. Kevin Long was given the keys to a fairly loaded lineup, anchored by a superstar and a couple of All-Stars. Kevin Long's work (or lack thereof) may have in fact solidified him as the worst hitting coach in all of Major League Baseball. Kevin Long should not be boarding a plane with the Washington Nationals to head to Philadelphia today. On Monday, July 22, 2013, the Washington Nationals fired hitting coach Rick Eckstein. At that time, the Nationals were hitting .241 and averaging 3.69 runs per game through 98 games. This year's Washington Nationals are hitting .239 and are averaging 4.14 runs per game through 78 games. They have been shut out in 10% their games this season, or 8 times in 78 games. That's the exact amount the 2013 Nationals had been shutout through 78 games and one more time than the Nationals were shutout through the entirety of last season, though it took this Nationals team less than half the time to accomplish that feat.

Kevin Long loves "launch angle". He wants you to hit home runs. That sounds like a lot of fun. Except, the Washington Nationals have hit 85 home runs this year, good for 18th in the Major Leagues in that category. So, if they're not hitting for average and they're not hitting for power, how are they scoring? Well, they're not! In fact, the Nationals have scored a National League low 78 runs in their 22 games in June and haven't scored in over 18 innings of baseball.

Since going from the Yankees to the Mets prior to the 2013 season, only one of Long's teams have cracked the top 20 in MLB in team batting average or OPS, and that was last year's Mets who hit .250, which was good for 19th in the league, with an OPS of .755, which was good for 14th in the league. This is his style. It doesn't work and it hasn't worked for quite some time now. Some people say that batting average is a tired statistic and it doesn't matter all that much anymore. Not me. The 2015 Kansas City Royals finished the year 3rd in the league in batting average, hitting .269. The 2016 Chicago Cubs, the only team in the past 3 years to finish outside of the top 10 in the league, finished the year 14th in batting average, hitting .256 (.17 points higher than this year's Nationals, mind you). The 2017 Houston Astros finished the year last year first in batting average, at .282 and first in OPS, at .823. The Nationals are 22nd in the league in batting average and 19th in OPS. You can't win if you don't get on base. You can't win if you don't score.

If the season ended today, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo would all three finish with the lowest batting averages of their careers. If Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman qualified, they too would finish with the worst batting averages of their careers. When one or two guys have a down year, you just chalk it up to bad luck. When three or more guys are having down years, you can begin to questions the philosophy.

This is not a good fit. Quit trying to make it work. Cut ties here before he can get his paws on Juan Soto's perfect swing and great plate discipline. 

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