Dead in the Water

The Nationals finished May with a 32-23 record, which was good for 1/2 game out of first place. Since then, they've gone 10-17, they're 6-15 over their past 21 games, with their lone series win being against the Orioles. They now sit 2 games above .500, 6 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. It's a similar position to the one that the 2013 Nationals were in. Those Nationals were 42-40, 6 games behind the Braves and 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card position. Those Nationals had a 10-16 July, where they finished 52-56, 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games behind the Braves.

Interestingly, the 2013 Nationals and 2018 Nationals have a lot in common. Not a whole lot of hitting, but very solid pitching. The 2013 Nationals averaged 4.05 runs per game, hit .251 and had an OPS of .710. The 2018 Nationals average 4.24 runs per game, hit .239 with an OPS of .715. The pitching was just as close, with the 2013 Nationals having a staff ERA of 3.59 and the 2018 Nationals sitting at 3.67. The 2013 Nationals finished with a 86-76 record. They finished 11 games behind the Braves and 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. The way the 2018 Nationals look right now, they'd be lucky to win 86 games. 

You can only harp on the same things so many times, last year it was the bullpen, this year it's the bats. The Nationals top hitter with runners in scoring position so far this season? That would be Max Scherzer who is 5 for 12, good for a .412 batting average. Andrew Stevenson is second, going 5 for 13. Matt Adams is third, hitting .357, going 15 for 42 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals have gone 4-11 without Matt Adams. They're averaging 3.93 runs per game in his absence, and yes, that includes a 17 run outburst on Friday night. Bryce Harper is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, while Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto are both hitting .259. Those numbers aren't horrible, but they surely aren't good. None of your middle of the order bats are hitting over .260 with runners in scoring position. If you want some good comparables, Freddie Freeman is hitting .389 with runners in scoring position, Jose Altuve is at .379, Nolan Arenado is at .354. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have star potential, but they're hitting over .100 points lower than some of the top players in the league with runners in scoring position. Hitting .300+ with runners in scoring position is your only way to drive in 100+ runs in this league. It's tough to win when you rely so heavily on the long ball, hence the 9-16 June record. The Nationals hit 20 home runs in June, which was good for 25th in the Majors. Of those 20 home runs in June, 7 of them were hit on Friday night. 

So, what do you do now? I don't know. Continue breaking the season down into little pieces. You're in the middle of a tougher stretch here with 4 against the Phillies and now 3 against the Red Sox. You're 1-3 so far, so you're probably looking at a 2-5 stretch now. Win 1 against the Red Sox and you're 43-42 headed into an 11 game stretch against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets to end the first half. The only acceptable way to finish the first half against those 3 would be by going at least 8-3, hopefully better. At 51-45, you at least give yourself a chance in the second half. Anything worse and you may have put yourself in a hole that you can't dig out of.