Second Half Recipe

The second half will begin on Friday with the Nationals sitting at 48-48, in 3rd place in the National League East and 5.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals need to do better. There is too much talent on this roster for them to be a .500 team through 96 games this season. The next 66 games are a golden opportunity to show the baseball world that they're not quite dead. Unfortunately, the hole they dug in the first half means they probably have to play .630 or better baseball in the second half to make the playoffs, but they've done that numerous times in prior seasons. The goal is reach 90 wins, which would mean a 42-24 second half for the Nationals. The Nationals have played .600 or better baseball in the second half 3 times in the past 6 seasons. In 2012, the Nationals went 49-30 in the second half, in 2014, they went 45-24 and in 2016, they went 45-29. They're going to have to make it 4 of the past 7 to be playing baseball this October.

The Nationals are tied for the 7th easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Phillies check in tied for the 5th easiest and the Braves are tied for the 10th easiest. The Nationals opponent's winning percentage is a combined .492. They have 19 combined games left against the Marlins and Mets. The season could very well come down to how they play in those 19 games. Say you go 15-4 in those 19 games (highly unlikely, but possible), that means you have to go 27-20 in your remaining 47 games. That seems a lot less daunting than going 42-24 over 66 games. Beat the bad teams. It's how the Nationals have won the division the past two years. It's going to be the recipe to do it again this year. They are 21-14 against teams below .500 so far this year. That's a .600 winning percentage. For comparison, the Nationals played .616 baseball against below .500 teams last year. The biggest difference between the two years is that the Nationals played an astounding 120 of their 162 games against teams below .500 last year. That's 74% of their games. So far this year, they've played just 35 of their first 96 games against teams below .500. They have 25 games remaining against teams below .500. There clearly aren't as many games against sub-par opponents as there were last year, which means the opportunity to pounce on those teams looms even larger.

The second part to mounting this comeback is equally as important as beating the bad teams. The Nationals have 18 combined games left against the Phillies and Braves. They get the Braves for a 3 game series straight out of the break. They have a pivotal road trip from September 10-16 where they go to Philadelphia for 3 and then to Atlanta for 3. These 18 games are a golden opportunity to make up ground on the two teams in front of you. The goal has to be win each of those 6 series. If you win all 6 series by winning 2 of 3 games (there are no remaining 4 game series against either of these teams), then you go at least 12-6 against those two teams. There's no doubt that 12-6 is unlikely, as is 15-4 against the below .500 teams, but if you do it, you set yourself up really nicely.

So, the big question is - how do you make this happen? Bryce needs to catch fire, Roark needs to get back on track, Strasburg needs to stay healthy and Zimmerman needs to come back mirroring his 2017 self. Those who may have forgotten, Manny Machado had an extremely average first half last season. Machado hit .230/.296/.445 with a .741 OPS, 18 home runs and 47 RBI. He rebounded to hit .290/.326/.500 with a .826 OPS, 15 home runs and 48 RBI in the second half. Bryce's first half numbers this year, minus batting average, are actually better than Machado's first half last year. There's no reason to think that Bryce can't catch fire and carry this team offensively for a month or more. Strasburg's health and Tanner Roark's consistency are the key to the starting rotation's success in the second half. If Roark comes out and throws one or two duds to start the second half, then you can expect Mike Rizzo to make a deal to bring in a starting pitcher. In the past, the Nationals were fortunate enough to be able to let their starting pitchers "work through" their issues because of their large division leads. This year, they can't afford to have starting pitchers consistently putting them in 3-0 and 4-0 holes after the 2nd or 3rd inning.

The Chicago Cubs went into the All-Star break last year at 43-45 and 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. They went on to finish 92-70 and win the N.L. Central by 6 games. They rode a 49-25 second half into the playoffs. The Nationals can win the N.L. East this year. They need to come back from the break relaxed and ready for a battle with the Phillies and Braves. They need to take at least 2 of 3 against the Braves coming out of the break to set the tone for the second half comeback. They need to be ready to flex their muscles and show the rest of the league they're not dead. On the heels of Bryce Harper's impending free agency, this is either going to be the most exciting second half that Nationals fans have ever seen, or a second half that culminates in one of the most disappointing seasons that Nationals fans have endured since baseball came back to the District in 2005.